NIFTY FUTURE WEEKLY
The week that went by, saw a 306 points range (High 5539 & Low 5233) and closed at 5313. With the fall to the weekly low of 5233, we are close to the previous low of 5175 and also the trend line on which has provided support.
The readers will recall that for past few months, I have been showing the possibility of forming the Right Shoulder wherein Nifty Future could go down to 4400. Now that everyone is considering that possibility, it is time to review the situation. The possibility of the 4400 (or close to it) gets accentuated once we go below 5000. However, I would like to highlight the time element of what I had been showing for so many weeks. From the 21 weeks starting Diwali Top, we are now short of about 5 weeks. Hence, we need to keep a watch whether, Nifty Future goes down to 4400 levels in the next 4 weeks or so - or Nifty Future bounces without going down up to 4400 levels and just completes the time wise correction.
We have a major event in the form of Budget announcements on Monday and that also happens to be the month end for monthly candle formation. The past week's candle on the weekly chart is showing side way movement. As I understand, we are poised to go either way depending Budget announcements. That is, below 5175 it can get weak and above 5420 (that is if Budget announcements are too good) we can go up to 5700 i.e if we clear 5555 decisively this time around.
On such eventful day, it is better to be on the side lines or at least trade small quantity with strict stop loss.
Have a nice weekend!
Ketan Asher.
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