NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE :
One more day of blood bath and a lower top / lower bottom today. After a weak opening, Nifty Future did make an attempt for an up move, but that remained unsuccessful and thereafter, we saw panic selling in select stocks, based on rumours. The days' High was made at 5347 and low was at 5228. Good part of today's trading was that there was a sharp pullback from lower levels to close the day at 5261 - indicating that shorts are getting cut. In many cases, we are seeing prices which we never imagined were possible just a month back. A good example is IDFC which has a High of 185 in Jan 2011 and made a low of 115 today. I am sure there will be many more companies which can be counted as 'good companies' but have been thrashed mercilessly.
Once again I would say that I remain optimistic for a pullback rally and one more reasoning is indicated on the EOD chart, which gives possibility of a turn around tomorrow. Please feel free to check out the chart - if for nothing else, at least you will feel good, that turnaround is likely.
For tomorrow, I would continue to maintain buy small quantities on delivery basis and buy calls. When doing so, just recall all the good reasons which were being given when Nifty was at 6200-6300. They all still remain there - its just that peoples' perceptions have suddenly changed. With the new lows every day, one likely thing to happen is that for pullback, upside is getting capped. For now, I would consider the pullback to go up to 5700-5800, in the run up to the budget. While buying at the current level, keep the above levels as target to liquidate. This may provide a good trading opportunity and not the time for investment buying.
As usual, I do not advise going short at lower levels. One may buy Nifty Future above 5300 with stop loss of 5260. On the higher side, 5340 and 5400 will be hurdles. Confidence will return only above 5400, hence plan your trade taking into account high level of volatility. Prudence is in keeping away from futures for a while and focus on calls in Nifty for trading purpose. After all Money saved is money earned.
In case of weak opening, the brave hearts can even consider going long with strict stop loss of 5190.
Put Call Ratio of Index Options increased marginally to 0.90 as against 0.86 on the previous day.
PLEASE DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.
With Best Wishes,
Ketan Asher.
No comments:
Post a Comment