TURNING POINTS FOR 26.02.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE :

We had one more day of trading when Nifty Future could not move out of the range. Though it went lower than the previous 2 days, it closed near the high of the day at 4860.

Tomorrow is an important day for the market but how to trade for tomorrow is the most difficult question to answer, as the market may change course many times during the day, depending upon FM's announcements and peoples instant reactions to the same. Ideally, it would be better to spend your time understanding the longer term implications of the Budget proposals than to try and make a quick buck as the risk reward ratio will be totally against the day trader.

I would say that above 4920 and more so above 4950 Nifty future can be expected to flare up to 5200. In the event of some unfavourable announcements, on the down side it will slide fast below 4800 and can go right up to the previous low near 4650.

I would consider the markets very weak only if it closes below 4650, hence it will be better to make delivery based buying in the event of a steep fall - rather than panic. If Nifty Future bounces from the previous bottom, it should be considered a big positive for the market, as it would have made double bottom and hence buy on declines would turn out to be a more rewarding strategy.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options almost remained unchanged at 0.97 as against 0.98 on the previous day.
It would be better to trade tomorrow in the options than in Futures as you can control the risk easily and for God's sake please do not forget to put STOP LOSS.
With Best Wishes for an eventful day,
Ketan Asher.
PS: Please note that after such a Big day, we have a three day holiday, so what ever may be your view on the market - please think 10 times before leaving open Futures positions irrespective of the direction.

Words of Wisdom

Money saved is money earned.

TURNING POINTS FOR 25.02.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE:
In sympathy with weak US markets, Nifty Future opened weak, but immediately went above 4850 and remained sideways and listless for better part of the day with virtually no effect on account of the Railway Budget proposals. During the later part of the day, it made an attempt to go higher but could not go beyond 4884 and closed the day at 4862. On the EOD chart you will observe that Nifty Future has taken support on the Trend Line, such that with a little push. it can fall off the Trend Line. Current market movement is a nightmare for day traders but a boon to option writers.

Of the two major events for this week, we have one scheduled for tomorrow and that is the end of the FNO settlement. For tomorrow, i will continue to suggest positive bias above 4850 and hope that it will break out of the narrow range tomorrow. On higher side it will face resistance at 4920, 4985 and 5010.

Weakness will accelerate only below 4800, hence going short should be considered only below this level with stop loss of 4850.

Put Call Ratio of Index options increased to 0.98 as against 0.86 on the previous day.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 24.02.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE:

In today's trade, Nifty Future opened weak but quickly crossed the 4850 level and went up to make a high of 4889 and closed marginally higher than yesterday at 4870. Weakness in Reliance continues to be the major cause of weakness in Nifty Future. Till such time Nifty Future closes above 4920, listless performance of Nifty Future will continue.

From the EOD Chart, you will find that Nifty Future has taken support on the Trend Line and hence it needs to cross the 4920 ASAP, otherwise possibility if it going below 4800 tends to increase. Tomorrow Railway Budget is to announced and if it provides some positive triggers it may be possible for Nifty Future to go above 4920. Depending on the risk profile, one can either buy Nifty Future above 4920 or at lower levels but above 4850 with a suitable stop loss of about 30 points. On higher side, if 4920 is crossed, it will find resistance at 4985 and 5010.

Put Call Ratio of Index options marginally decreased to 0.86 as against 0.91 on the previous day.

With presentation of Railway Budget, market can remain quite volatile, hence please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 23.02.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE:

In today's trading Nifty Future opened with a gap but could not go above 4920 and after remaining sideways for sometime, it went down to 4849 and closed at 4857. Notable feature for today was that despite weakness during the day, Nifty Future has made higher bottom - higher top and EOD Candle is not looking bad. Reliance continues to remain the major cause for Nifty Future's weakness.

As Nifty Future has closed near the low of the day, opening session may be weak. Weakness will accelerate only below 4820 and hence buying should be considered only if Nifty is above 4850. On higher side 4920 continues to remain a major resistance and above this level it can go up to 4985 - 5010 and 5060.

One can consider going short if Nifty Future breaks the recent low of 4797 with stop loss of 4830. On downside Nifty Future can go down to 4640 although to me this looks unlikely.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options decreased to 0.91 as against 0.94 on the previous day.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 22.02.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE :

In Friday's trading Nifty future maintained downward bias and made a low of 4797 and had a sharp bounce that took it to day's high of 4884 but closed lower at 4846. Weekly candle for Nifty Future is a doji suggesting indecisiveness on the part of market participants.

For the next week, we can maintain upward bias with Friday's low as a stop loss. One can consider going long on Nifty Future with 4800 as a stop loss. On higher side, it will find resistance at 4920 and if it crosses that it will quickly go to the next resistance at 4985 and there after 5010.

You may refer to 30 min Chart given above, wherein i have shown a Head & Shoulder pattern with a target of 5194, if Nifty Future moves above 4920 - neckline.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options decreased to 0.94 as against 1.08 on the previous day.

Next week will be an eventful week with FNO settlement on Thursday and presentation of Union Budget on Friday. This can lead to lot of volatility and hence trading positions must be protected with strict STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 19.02.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE:

In today's trading, Nifty Future could not cross yesterday's top and continued to face resistance as Reliance remained weak. Nifty Future has made lower top and lower bottom for the day -suggesting weakness, but EOD candle does leave hopes that it can recover tomorrow. Moreover there is strong support upto 4835 so hopes of continuation of up move are not yet lost. As has been mentioned yesterday, participation of Reliance is necessary for Nifty Future to go above 4940.

For tommorrow, one should buy Nifty Future when it crosses 4940 or at lower levels around 4835 with stop loss of 4800. On higher side, it will face resistance at 4985 and 5010.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options increased to 1.08 as against 1.02 yesterday.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 18.02.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE:

As expected, Nifty Future opened with a gap, but could not cross the 4920-4940 range hurdle and made a top of 4928. During the day, it filled up the gap left in the opening by making a low of 4978 and EOD candle resulted in a doji. While bank stocks started moving up, Reliance has not been participating much. For Nifty Future to cross 4940, Reliance has to remain above 1040.

For tomorrow, it will be advisable to buy Nifty Future above 4940 with stop loss of 4900. On higher side it will find resistance at 4985 and 5010. In the event Nifty Future is not able to cross 4940, but breaks today's low of Low of 4878, one can consider buying Nifty Future at lower levels with a Stop Loss of 4800.

Those learning Technical Analysis may find it interesting to see the 30 min chart, wherein I have shown the Trend Line which acted as a Resistance today.

Put Call Ratio of Index options increased to 1.11 as against 0.87 yesterday.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 17.02.2010

NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE:

In yesterday's trading Nifty Future remained sideways in the first half of the day and in second half finally went up with the desired momentum. As has been mentioned for the past few days, 4850 was a major hurdle which got crossed and took Nifty to day's high of 4894 and as the high was done in last few minutes, due to the policy of average rates, the close is at 4865.

With US markets also being positive, it is a forgone conclusion that we will have a good opening - may be with a gap. On higher side 4920-4940 can act as another major hurdle which may not be cleared in the first attempt, hence all existing long position should either be liquidated at that level or be trailed with a strict trailing stop loss of 4900. There after 4985 - 5000 will be resistance area.

In case Nifty Future opens near yesterday's close one can consider buying with stop loss of 4845 for the above target on higher side. I do not recommend buying on gap open.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 16.02.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
POST FOR 17.02.2010 WILL BE UPLOADED ON 17.02.2010 BY 8.30 AM. INCONVENIENCE IS REGRETTED.
NIFTY FUTURE :

In today's trading, Nifty Future opened firm but could not cross the important level of 4850 and made a low of 4877 and closed at 4796. Today's weakness could largely be attributed to over 9 % fall in Bharati Airtel. You will observe in 30 min chart how Nifty Future has taken support on the Trend Line.

For tomorrow, it will be better to initiate buy trade only when Nifty Future trades above 4850, with stop loss of 4810. On higher side, it will find resistance at 4920 and 5000.

I would not advise going short at current levels as MACD has already generated a buy signal on EOD chart. For Nifty Future to show strength it has to move above 4850 and thereafter above 4920 levels.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options has marginally decreased to 0.95 as against 1.01 on the previous trading day.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,
Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 15.02.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE:
On the last trading day - Thursday, Nifty Future opened firm and made a high to 4849 and closed at 4829. The good part of last week's trading was that Nifty Future made higher bottom and higher top for the last 3 trading days and that has helped Nifty Future post a bullish candle on the weekly chart after three bearish weeks and down by about 12%.

For tomorrow's trading, one can buy Nifty Future with stop loss of 4775. On higher side, it has to cross 4850 to gain strength. On crossing the 4850 level, it will also cross the trend line shown on EOD chart and that should help getting the traders back to the bullish view. It will face resistance at 4920 and 5000.

I would not advise going short at these levels, except at resistance levels that too for a quick 20 odd points gain.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options increased to 1.01 as against 0.94 on the previous trading day.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 11.02.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE :
In spite of positive clues from US markets, Nifty Future could not breach the 4820 hurdle, and it wiped out all the gains in last one hour to close at 4751. This type of struggle should be expected till Nifty Future closes above 4920.

For tomorrow's trading, I would maintain positive bias till Nifty future is above 4720 and in case of steady opening one can buy with 4720 as stop loss. As i have mentioned in the last post, below 4720 it can retest the previous low or can even make a new low at 4640 and then bounce back.

One can buy Nifty Future above 4750 with stop loss of 4720. On higher side 4820 continues to remain a hurdle and above this 4850 and 4920 will act as resistance levels. Please note that tomorrow is the last trading day for the week and not many would like to take an exposure for the long weekend. This may result in lower volumes and consequently lower volatility. Close anywhere above 4720 should be considered positive for the next week.

Put Call Ratio of Index options marginally increased to 0.94 as against 0.84 on the previous day.
Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.
With Best Wishes,
Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 10.02.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE:

In today's trading Nifty Future opened weak, but stabilised soon thereafter and even made a higher top at 4818 and closed at 4793. Noteworthy point was that despite efforts, backed by positive European markets, it could not cross 4820. This point may be relevant for tomorrow's trading.

For tomorrow, one can buy Nifty Future with stop loss of 4740. On higher side, Nifty Future will find resistance at 4820 - 4850 and 4865. Thereafter 4920 may act as a strong resistance. For up move to gather momentum, it is important for Reliance to go above 1020 and 1040 soon.

While i do not recommend going short at these levels, i would like to caution, that if Nifty Future goes below 4720, possibility of retesting the recent low of 4650 can not be ruled out and hence trading positions should be protected with STOP LOSS.

Put Call ratio of index options significantly decreased to 0.84 as against 1.04 yesterday.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 09.02.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE:

In today's trading Nifty Future made a new low as well as new high compared to the previous two days. As many of you must be aware, 200 SMA is at 4659 where as Nifty Future made a bottom at 4667 and then made a sharp up move to make a high of 4807. Due to intra day profit taking Nifty Future closed at 4765, but EOD candle keeps the hopes of further up move alive.

For tomorrow's trading one can buy Nifty Future with a stop loss of 4720. It will find resistance at 4810 and 4850, which will be little tough to cross in the first attempt and there is a possibility that market may retrace a bit, before gathering enough steam to go further up. Once these levels are crossed, 4920 should be considered as a major hurdle. You will know how all these points are arrived at, if you spare sometime to see the charts.

From today's sharp up move, I feel my upward bias seems to be right and hence going short at these levels is not advisable. I would hasten to add, that we are still not out of the woods and hence trading positions must be protected with a tight STOP LOSS. Market follows the same logic like a snake and ladder game, where going up is much harder then coming down.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options remains almost unchanged at 1.04 as against 1.03 on the previous day.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 08.02.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE:

While the short session on Saturday is really not indicative due to lower participation, Nifty Future did not go below previous day's low. As such it has closed near the high of the day, suggesting firm opening on Monday.

For tomorrow's trading, on can buy Nifty Future above 4760 with stop loss of 4720. on higher side, it will find resistance at 4790 and major resistance at 4820 to 4840. Nifty future will get strength only above 4850 and hence it will be better not to remain short above this level.

Until we close above 4850, the possibility of making one more low near 4600 remains open. As i maintain positive bias, i prefer to buy at support levels and sell at resistance levels, and not suggested going short at higher levels. Even for individual scrips, it is better to continue delivery based buying on declines, in anticipation of pre budget rally.

Put Call Ratio of Index options declined to 1.03 as against 1.13 on the previous day.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

PS: In view of system problem in reading Saturday data, there will be no update for TP Grid, on Monday.

TURNING POINTS FOR 06.02.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE:

In yesterday's trading the fall has not breached 4680 levels given as support and lets hope the same holds good for today also.

Fresh long positions should be be created above 4730 with 4680 as stop loss. On higher side it will find resistance at 4760 and will gain strength above this level. It will find major resistance at 4820.

For those who are short would be better off by squaring up their short position.

We will have to wait for Monday's full trading session to know whether the low formed yesterday will hold.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options increased to 1.13 as against 1.05 yesterday.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 05.02.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE :

In today's trading, Nifty Future could not cross the trend line which acted as resistance yesterday. It opened lower and after remaining side ways during the 1st half of the day, it broke the stop loss level of 4875 given yesterday. It went down to make low of 4824 and closed @ 4834. As we have closed near the low of the day, tomorrow's opening could be weak.

For tomorrow's trading one can go short below 4800 with a strict stop loss of 4835. On lower side it will find support at 4770 and could bounce back. In the event, previous low of 4757 is broken it will find support at 4680 and thereafter major support at 4600. If at all this level is reached, it would be a good idea to buy 5000 Call Option, in light of the possible pre budget rally.

Long positions should be taken if Nifty Future crosses above 4850, with 4820 as the stop loss. On higher side, it will find resistance at 4880 - 4920 - 5000.

Another interesting feature for tomorrow is that it is 180th day from the gap open post Election results and i have also drawn an ellipse on the price bars so as to cover/touch maximum no. of trading bars. Hope u will find it interesting to see it on the EOD chart. Do these things, coupled with today i.e. 4th February being Gann turn date, indicate that we will form a bottom tomorrow before the pre-budget rally starts? Lets stay tuned to the market tomorrow to find out.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options increased to 1.05 as against 0.99 yesterday.

What ever may be your view please do not forget to use STOP LOSS, while trading.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 04.02.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE :

On the back of positive close in US markets, Nifty Future opened strong and made a top at 4950, where it found resistance at the trend line. As the pull back after the resistance was not significant and Nifty Future closed at 4926, continuation of the up move after clearing the trend line can be expected for tomorrow.

Existing long positions can be trailed with stop loss of 4875. Fresh long position should be taken only after the trend line is crossed at 4950, with stop loss of 4920. On higher side, it will find resistance at 4975 - 5010 and major resistance at 5035.

Nifty future can be sold below 4875, with stop loss of 4900 and it will find support at 4830. Below 4830 bearishness will accelerate.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options reduced to 0.99 as against 1.03 yesterday.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 03.02.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE :
In yesterday's trading Nifty Future opened firm but could not sustain higher levels - may be strong resistance of 4920 has not completed its part. Nifty Future fell through out the day to make a low of 4807 and closed at 4822 - thus indicating weak close.

We are now close to 4750. If Nifty Future can make a double bottom and bounce from there, it will confirm that the correction is over or in light of positive US markets Nifty Future does not break 4800. even in this case we would have got higher bottom for Nifty Future, which will also confirm positive view. As mentioned in earlier posts, if 4750 is broken, we may see 4600 levels. As of now this possibility can not be ruled out.

With positive US markets, we may have firm opening. It is better to go long above 4850 with stop loss of 4800 or 4820. On higher side Nifty Future will find resistance at 4875 - 4920 and 4960. I do not advise going short at these levels. With 4600 levels as a reference point, it is a good opportunity to make delivery based buying for pre budget rally.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options remained unchanged at 1.03 as against 1.04 on the previous day.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher

TURNING POINTS FOR 02.02.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE:

In today's trading Nifty Future opened little lower than previous day's close to make day's low of 4822, but remained steady thereafter to make sustained higher top and higher bottom on 30 min chart. It made a top at 4924 and gave a pullback due to intra day profit taking and the fact that 4920 was a major hurdle to reckon with. It ended the day at 4899 and that too with EOD candle not showing any weakness.

For tomorrow, aggressive traders can buy at the open, with a stop loss of 4840 and those who would like to play safe can enter above 4925 with stop loss of 4890. On higher side, it will face resistance at 4960 - 4975 - 5000 and 5030. Nifty Future will show strength above 5030.

Fresh short position in Nifty Future should be considered only below 4840.

With results season getting over, we have to now look forward to the Budget announcements scheduled for 26th Feb and the Disinvestment Programme. These two events should keep market sentiment in good spirits and this will become evident after Nifty Future manages to cross 5030 levels. Current phase provides a good opportunity to make small quantities of delivery based buying at lower levels. As stated in my previous post, i would consider 4600 level, as the worst case scenario.

Put Call Ratio of index options remained at 1.04 as against 0.92 on the previous trading day.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes.

Ketan Asher.