TURNING POINTS FOR 01.04.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE :

In today's trading Nifty Future opened at yesterday's level but could not cross 5296 and went down to make day's low at 5245 and bounced back to 5293 and closed at 5261.

For last two day's Nifty Future has been forming lower bottom and lower top suggesting weakness.

For tomorrow, one should consider buying only above 5300 with stop loss of 5265. On higher side it will find resistance at 5345 and 5370.

Considering sideway movement during the day, it will be advisable to go short only bewlow 5240. On downside, it will find support at 5225 and strong support at 5170. One can consider going long at this level with stop loss of 5150.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options was marginally lower at 0.96 as against 0.99 yesterday.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 31.03.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE:

In today's trading Nifty Future could not go above 5331 and broke yesterday's low to make a new low @ 5263 and closed near the low @ 5274. Nifty future has taken support on the Trend Line shown in the EOD chart - which to me looks like a rising wedge. Tomorrow if this trend line is broken i.e. Nifty Future goes below 5260, fall can be sharp.

For Tomorrow, fresh short position should be taken below 5260 with stop loss of 5300. On down side it will find support at 5225 and 5170.

One can consider buying near 5225, with stop loss of 5200, as Nifty Future can see a sharp pullback up to 5285 as we have also to factor the possibility of Nifty Future going up for NAV effect - it is the last trading day of financial year 2009-10.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options increased to 0.99 as against 0.88 yesterday.

Being the last trading day of the financial year, do expect higher volatility - so please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 30.03.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE :

In today's trading Nifty Future continued its up move, to make new high of 5344, but gave up majority of the gains to close the day at 5312. With Infosys and Reliance both showing weakness, it will be interesting to see if Nifty Future is able to continue the up move in the coming days. Once again, in spite of maintaining up move, Nifty Future is not able to cross the trend line - in Brown, shown in EOD chart. In case it manages to cross the Trend Line on the back of better US markets, it will find resistance at 5420.

For tomorrow, i will continue to advise caution for long positions. Existing long positions should be trailed with a stop loss of 5290.

One can consider going short below 5290 with stop loss of 5325. On lower side it will find support at 5260 - 5225.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options marginally decreased to 0.88 as against 0.92.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 29.03.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE:

In Friday's trading Nifty Future opened with a gap and made a new high of 5309 but traded in a narrow range of 37 points only. If you observe the attached EOD chart, you will find that although Nifty Future is maintaining upward bias, it is not able to cross the trend line - in Brown.

Considering the narrow range being made even after breaking the previous high, Nifty Future is not able to make a convincing move forward. Hence, it is better to avoid fresh buying at higher levels.

One can consider going short when Nifty Future breaks 5270 with stop loss of 5310. On lower side it will find support at 5245 - 5200 and 5165.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options remained unchanged at 0.92.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

PS: As mentioned earlier, please note how 52 week mid point is going up every week.

From 1st April, there will be no updates for TP GRID, which please note.

TURNING POINTS FOR 26.03.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN/ NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE :

In today's trading Nifty Future opened below previous day's level as against the general expectation of gap up opening, as US markets had declined marginally. As such, this gave a good buying opportunity as market did not go below 5204 and in the last one hour went up to 5264 and closed at 5261 - near the high of the day, which coupled with rise in US markets today indicates strong opening tomorrow in the new FNO settlement.

For tomorrow's trading, one should go long above 5250 with stop loss of 5220. On higher side market will find resistance at 5303 (previous top), 5325, 5365 and 5400.

Put Call ratio of Index Options decreased to 0.92 as against 1.13 on the previous day.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 25.03.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE:

In yesterday's trading, Nifty Future did not go below previous day's low of 5180 and made a high of 5242 and closed at 5226 though it remained below the trend line being shown for the past few days.

Tomorrow's opening session will be influenced by yesterday's high made in US markets but the same will be neutralised to some extent if US market close in the negative by day's end. Moreover, tomorrow being FNO settlement day, volatility can be expected to be higher.

It is advisable not to buy if there is a gap opening as 5250 will act as resistance. One can consider buying Nifty Future with stop loss of 5200. Nifty Future will gain momentum once it crosses 5250 as shown in 30 min chart. On higher side it will find resistance at the previous high of 5303 - 5365 and 5400.

Nifty Future will get weak only below 5180.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options increased marginally to 1.13 as against 1.07 on the previous day.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 23.03.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE:

As expected market opened with a downside gap and made a low at 5180 and went to make an intra day high of 5260 and closed at 5213 - marginally above the day's open. You will observe on the EOD chart, that the day's candle does suggest weakness.

For tomorrow, one can consider going short below 5225 with stop loss of 5260. on lower side it will find support at 5165 and 5125. It is better to avoid long positions till Nifty Future trades near 5000 levels. Moreover, with only 2 trading days (24th being trading holiday) to FNO settlement, volatility can be expected to be higher.

Put Call ratio of Index Options remained almost unchanged at 1.07 as against 1.09 on the previous day.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 22.03.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE :

In Friday's trading Nifty Future made a new high at 5282 and also closed (5275) near the high of the day. It would be interesting to see the EOD chart where, though Nifty Future has made a new high, it continues to face the resistance of the trend line which i am showing for the past few days. With RBI announcement over the week end will have its effect in the opening session tomorrow. Interestingly, this coincides with W D Gann's turn date of 21 March.

For the past two days, i have been suggesting caution and this may appear valid now. We will start tomorrow with a reaction to the RBI announcement over the week end. This is not to suggest bearishness, but with only 8 trading session left for the current financial year, i will not be surprised if breaking 5300 level happens in April ' 10 - once full year results start coming in.

For tomorrow the market should be considered bearish only below 5195 - where it will find trend line (in Brown colour) support as shown on the EOD chart. If this trend line is broken, Nifty Future can come down to 5050 - 5000 over the next week.

One can consider going short with stop loss of 5300. On down side it will find support at 5195 - 5165 and 5125. Please avoid going short if there is a gap down opening.

Fresh buying in Nifty Future should be considered around 5000 levels.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options decreased to 1.09 as against 1.21 on the previous trading day.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 19.03.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE :

In today's trading, Nifty Future remained in a narrow range and did not go below the 5218 level indicated yesterday, thus not generating a sell signal. It closed (5254) firm near the high (5264) of the day. While EOD candle leaves hope for continuation of up move, the trend line hurdle still remains. I would urge the readers to see the EOD chart to get a clear picture.

For tomorrow, I would continue to advise caution at higher levels and feel that risk/reward ratio is against fresh long position at these levels. Existing long positions should be trailed with stop loss of 5215. One can go short below 5190 with stop loss of 5225. On down side it will find support at 5165 and 5120.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options increased to 1.21 as against 1.11 yesterday.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher

TURNING POINTS FOR 18.03.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE :

In today's trading, Nifty Future opened with a gap and crossed the resistance level of 5225 being referred here for the past few days. It made a high of 5271 to touch the trend line shown in the attached chart. I have also drawn a rectangle to show the range of 4500 to 5300 in which Nifty future has been moving for the past 6 months. It is no doubt that once we cross the 5300 levels we should be aiming for the 2008 high of 6336. The moot point is whether we will be able to cross 5300 levels in this attempt? Looking at today's candle on the EOD chart this looks difficult as the candle is like a shooting star - indicating end of rally, subject to confirmation tomorrow.

Tomorrow if Nifty future trades below 5218, it would indicate the first sign of weakness and a good possibility that we may see a correction before we cross 5300 levels.

One can continue long positions with stop loss of 5190 and can go short below 5190 with a stop loss of 5225. On the down side, 5170 and 5120 will provide support.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options decreased to 1.11 as against 1.16.

Whatever may be your view, please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 17.03.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN /NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE:

in today's trading Nifty Future opened firm and in last two hours gained momentum to make a high of 5218 and closed at 5204. As anticipated Reliance made this big move possible. We are now close to the next major hurdle at 5225.

For tomorrow, we have to see whether there is enough momentum to cross 5225 in the first attempt or it will act as a hurdle. On higher level 5260 and 5300 will be the next resistance levels. Existing long positions should now be trailed with 5165 as stop loss.

It is not advisable to remain short above 5225. Fresh short position may be considered only below 5165.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options increased to 1.16 as against 1.03 yesterday.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 16.03.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE:

In today's trading Nifty Future opened weak and went down to make a low of 5105 and in an otherwise narrow range (and boring day) closed (5132) near the high (5136) of the day. The positive feature for the day was that Nifty Future did not go below 5100 indicated yesterday and Reliance made an effort to cross the hurdle at 1035. Lets hope that it is able to provide the necessary impetus for Nifty Future to go above 5180.

As Nifty Future has started making lower top and lower bottom, one needs to be very careful in protecting long positions with a suitable stop loss. For Nifty Future, i would suggest 5090 as stop loss for long positions. Fresh buying in Nifty Future should be avoided till it is able to close above 5180. It will be better to consider buying Nifty Future near 5040 with stop loss of 5000.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options increased to 1.03 as against 0.89 on the previous day.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

PS: I would like to draw the attention of readers to column B of the TP Grid. Having completed 52 weeks, you will find the low going up almost every week - starting this week, as the market had consistently gone up during that period. Due to this the mid point will also go up and so long as the current Nifty Future or any scrip is above that mid point we can consider the positive bias and vice versa.

While on this subject, i would like to inform those who are referring the TP Grid, that I will be posting the TP Grid only till 31.03.2010.

TURNING POINTS FOR 15.03.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE:

In Friday's trading Nifty Future faced resistance at 5169. It would be interesting to see the attached EOD chart and observe how a trend line has acted as resistance level. It is important for Nifty Future to cross this resistance and there after will face another major hurdle at 5225. On weekly chart MACD has just generated a buy signal, hence the trend should be consider up.

For tomorrow, one can buy Nifty Future with 5100 as stop loss for higher targets at 5175 and 5225. As indicated in my post for Friday, Reliance has to cross 1035 and 1055 for this really to continue and gather momentum. On lower levels 5065 can also act as a good support at which buying may be considered with 5035 as stop loss.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options decreased to 0.89 as against 0.99 on the previous day.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 12.03.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE:

In today's trade Nifty Future opened firm and made a low of 5102 and then consistently made higher top and higher bottom on 30 min chart and after some choppiness, made high of 5161 in last 30 min of trade. This suggests that Nifty Future went up largely due to short covering and hence calls for cautious approach tomorrow.

Considering today's close at higher end of the day, Nifty Future should have a strong opening tomorrow. However, as we will be faced with major resistance areas for Nifty Future viz. 5175 and 5225, i would not recommend fresh long positions at higher levels. Existing long positions should be trailed with stop loss of 5125.

For this rally to gain strength, Reliance has to cross 1030 and 1055.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options has significantly dropped to 0.99 as against 1.39 yesterday.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 11.03.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE:

In today's trading Nifty Future opened at yesterday's level and went up to make a high of 5140 and then gave up all the gains by middle of the day to go near the day's low of 5095 and closed the day at 5118. It had one more narrow range day. Interesting feature of today's trading was that it did not go below yesterday's low and continued to take support on the trend line shown in the EOD chart. Best part of today's trading is that Reliance has closed above 1000 with above average volumes. Let us hope it continues to provide leadership to the market and takes it out of the narrow range syndrome.

For tomorrow, one should go short only if Nifty Future trades below 5090 with a stop loss of 5135. On down side it will find support at 5055 and 5000.

One should consider going long above 5145 with stop loss of 5100. On higher side it will find resistance at 5170 and 5225. It is not advisable to remain short if Nifty Future trades above 5225.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options increased to 1.39 as against 1.18 yesterday. This high level of put call ratio indicates that general perception is expecting the market to fall. If you believe, that market always proves the general opinion wrong, than have an upside bias and buy 5200 call option once market trades above 5145.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 10.03.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE:

As expected Nifty Future remained weak with downward bias during the day and has started the process of forming lower top and lower bottom. As it has closed near the low of the day, tomorrow it should open weak, but since it has taken support on the trend line shown in the EOD chart, we have to see whether it takes support and goes up or continues downside move.

New fresh position should be created only below 5090 with stop loss of 5135. On down side it will find support at 5055 and 4985.

Long position may be taken if Nifty Future moves above 5135 with stop loss of 5100. on higher side it will find resistance at 5170 and 5225.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options increased to 1.18 as against 1.15 yesterday.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 09.03.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE :

As expected, Nifty Future opened firm and made a high of 5140 and then went sideways. During the middle of the day it made a new high of 5145, but then gave up all the gains to fill up the opening gap and make a low of 5105. Though Nifty Future continues to make higher top and higher bottom on the EOD chart, it should be noted that on the intra-day 30 min chart shows divergence suggesting weakness. Moreover, we have almost reached the resistance zone of 5150 and 5175. With Reliance lacking the strength, long positions should be protected with tight stop loss as below 5100 Nifty Future can get weak.

For tomorrow, i would not advise fresh long positions and the existing long positions should be trailed with Stop Loss of 5100. Short positions can be considered below 5100 with tight stop loss of 5150. On lower side, it will find support at 5075 - 5050 and 4985. Weakness will accelerate below 4980.

Put Call Ratio of Index options decreased to 1.15 as against 1.38 on the previous day.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 08.03.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE:

On last Friday, Nifty Future opened strong and made a high of 5116 where it found Trend line resistance, but in the second half saw a sharp correction to make a low of 5065. Despite this correction, EOD candle and Weekly candle leave hope for continuation of this rally to a major hurdle at 5175.

With US markets closing strong, we can expect a strong opening tomorrow. One can create new position/trail existing long position with stop loss of 5040. On higher side it has to clear the trend line resistance of 5116 to go to higher levels. As such 5155 to 5175 region can act as resistance.

On downside, it will get weak below 5040 with support at 4975 and 4950. Nifty below 4950 can accelerate weakness.

Put Call Ratio of Index options increased to 1.38 as against 1.30 on the previous day.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 05.03.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE:

After 3 day up move, narrow range of 40 points for the day can be explained as taking breather before continuation of the up move. Nifty Future made low of 5050, high of 5090 and closed at 5081. EOD Candle does leave the hope for continuation of the up move open. However, it should be noted that Reliance and Infosys both remained weak today.

For tomorrow i would continue to suggest going long/trail the Nifty Future with a stop loss of 5040 and it can face major resistance at 5175 levels.

As referred in yesterday's post, tomorrow is the anniversary date if you consider the low of 2525 as the starting point of the current rally. Moreover it is the 242nd day of trading from the low of 2525 made on 5.03.2008. This coupled with significant resistance at 5170 may lead to an intermediate top, has to be kept in mind while keeping long positions open. While the charts do suggest continuation of the up move, it is better not to overlook such significant coincidences and take a cautious approach vis-a-vis trading positions.

One needs to worry about the downside only if Nifty goes below 5000 and closes below 4975.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options continues to remain high at 1.30 as against 1.26 on the previous day.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 04.03.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE:

In today's trading Nifty Future opened strong and steadily went up throughout the day. As expected, Reliance participated today and made it easier for Nifty Future to maintain steady up move. Nifty Future made a high of 5089 and closed at 5081.

For tomorrow Nifty Future may be bought/trailed with a stop loss of 5040. Ont higher side it will have strong resistance at 5175. This level also coincides with completion of 1 year on 5.3.2010 if we take the current 52 week low of 2525 as starting point of this one way rally. For this reason, I would consider 5th March as a day of significant importance. It will be better to book some profit on the way up tomorrow and day after as we will be up about 5 -6 % non stop.

TURNING POINTS FOR 03.03.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE :

In today's trading Nifty Future opened strong and after initial down move to 4967, remained steady with upward bias to make a high of 5035 and closed at 5023. considering the close, we can expect a strong opening tomorrow. While today sectors like Bank, Cement and Steel participated, performance of Reliance continues to remain lackluster. We must remember that for sustained up move in Nifty, participation by Reliance is a must. Let us hope it starts its journey above 1000 tomorrow.

For tomorrow, one can consider remaining long with stop loss of 4980. On higher side it will face resistance at 5075 and major hurdle at 5170. At this level it would be better to close long position or trail with tight stop loss.

Now that Nifty Future has closed above 5000, we will find lot of short covering taking place as many were bearish on the market. I would not recommend going short against the trend except at the resistance level of 5170, that too with tight stop loss of 5200.

Put Call Ratio of Index options remained unchanged at 1.17.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 02.03.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE:

On the budget day, market remained in steady uptrend during the 1st half of the day and made a high of 5002, but gave up major gains in the second half of the day to close the day @ 4930 - just above the resistance level of 4920 being referred for better part of the last week. Weekly candle is almost a Doji - suggesting indecisiveness on the part of the bulls and the bears, but the structure still leaves hope for the up side.

Going by the media reports, the Budget proposals have been well received with exceptions of items like increase in MAT. As the participants would have now read through the fine print of the Budget proposals, tomorrow we may see the effect on individual sectors. Nifty Future may be bought above 4950 with stop loss of 4920. On higher side it will face resistance at 5000 and 5085.

Nifty Future may be considered weak below 4835.

Put Call Ratio of Index options increased to 1.17 as against 0.97 on the previous day.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.