TURNING POINTS FOR 30.04.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE:

In today's trading Nifty Future opened firm and maintained upward bias for the day. The positive feature being that it has not broken yesterday's low and has closed near the high of the day - not to forget that it was FNO settlement day.

Tomorrow we can expect the opening to be firm and Nifty Future will go up to fill the gap left yesterday. One can consider going long with stop loss of 5225. On higher side it will find resistance at 5280 and 5325 being a major hurdle of the trend line as shown on the EOD chart. For Nifty Future to sustain upward move Reliance has to move above 1080. We can look for continuation of the rally if Nifty Future closes above 5325 and it would be prudent not to remain short above this level. In that event i expect Nifty Future to touch 5420 level being referred here for some time now.

One should consider going short only below 5200, which looks unlikely at least for tomorrow - with Greece problem likely to get resolved.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options increased to 1.31 as against 1.15 yesterday.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

PS: In the EOD chart you will observe that Nifty Future can go upto the upper channel of the Pitchfork - i.e. make a new high upto 5475 in the coming days and may be than start a correction. In a range bound market selling near the higher end of the range always helps.

TURNING POINTS FOR 29.04.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE :

In light of weak US markets yesterday, Nifty Future opened with a gap almost at the support level of 5250 referred yesterday. It remained there for better part of the day and in last hour went down further to make a low of 5198 and closed at 5217. As long as Nifty Future remains below 5225 weakness will persist.

Tomorrow, Nifty Future may open weak and find support around 5160. One can consider going long at this level with a stop loss of 5120. On lower side it will find support around 5125. On higher side it will find resistance at 5270 and 5300.

As i expect 5125 to offer good support - at least for a bounce, i would not recommend going short at lower levels. In case of close below 5125 we have next support levels at 5040 and 4950.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options increased to 1.15 as against 1.11 yesterday.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 28.04.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE:

In today's trading Nifty Future remained weak and moved within a narrow range of 5299 and 5334. It closed at 5309 - near the low of the day and has also started making lower top and lower bottom. However the positive feature was that it has remained above the trend line in the 30 min chart and also above 5280 level referred for the past few days.

For tomorrow, one should go short only below 5280 with stop loss of 5325. On lower side it will find support at 5250 and 5220.

One can consider going long above 5325 with stop loss of 5280. On higher side it will find resistance at 5350 - 5420 and 5465.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options increased to 1.11 as against 0.99 yesterday.

In view of the FNO settlement due on Thursday, the volatility may increase - hence please do not forget to use STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 27.04.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE :

In today's trading Nifty Future opened firm but could not sustain at higher levels and had a listless trading within 37 points range for the day. From the EOD chart you will observe that set up still gives hope for the continuation of the up move as today's trading has also made a higher bottom and higher top.

For tomorrows trading, one should consider going long above 5350 with a stop loss of 5320. On higher side it will find resistance at 5420 and 5460. It would be better to consider buying a call option of 5400 Strike Price at Rs. 7/- and leave it till expiry.

Fresh short position should be taken only below 5280 with stop loss of 5320.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options remained at 0.99 as against 0.98 on the previous day.

Considering the market set up, i would advise not to maintain very bearish approach as we are just a few days away from the FNO settlement and in case Nifty Future makes a new high, we may see lot of squaring up of short position which may take the market up to 5460. Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 26.04.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE :

Contrary to my expectations, Nifty Future remained firm and closed with a positive bias. Though it remained in 50 points range throughout the day, it closed at 5305 near the high of the day @ 5315.

For tomorrow, we can expect the market to open firm and long positions should be taken above 5330 with stop loss of 5290. On higher side it will find resistance at 5365 - 5420 and 5455. From the EOD chart you can observe that as time progresses, the upper level of the Pitchfork is going up and although Nifty Future may do a new top it still remains bound within the same structure. If you believe this to be true, then we are near the higher end of the range and it will be better to sell against delivery.

One should consider going short only if Nifty Future is below 5250 with stop loss of 5285.

Put Call ratio of Index Options remained unchanged at 0.98 as against 0.97.

We are now in the FNO settlement week and hence volatility will be higher. Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 23042010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE :

In today's trading, Nifty Future opened steady and made a big move up to a high of 5342. The rally could not sustain and in the last hour gave up major gains with even Adv/Dec turning marginally negative in the end. The EOD candle doesn't give much hope for continuation of the up move tomorrow. Those learning TA will find it interesting to see on the 30 min chart how the trend line has acted as a perfect level for today's high.

One can consider going short below 5200 with stop loss of 5235. On the way down it will find support at 5165 - previous low and next support at 5110.

Considering the steepness of last hour fall, it is advisable not to venture out long positions in a hurry as break of 5110 can take down Nifty Future to 5000 levels, real fast.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options decreased to 0.97 as against 1.07 yesterday.

Tomorrow is also Reliance Results day and volatility can be expected to be higher due to the FNO settlement next week, so please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 22.04.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE :

In today's trading Nifty Future opened firm and made a new high at 5265 and made a low of 5230 in the 2nd half of the day. It closed the day at 5245 and the good part of the day's trading was that for the second day Nifty Future has made higher bottom and higher top.

Tomorrow, long position should be taken with stop loss of 5200. On higher side, it will find resistance at 5275 and 5305. Please note from the EOD chart, that 5305 level will have dual importance as it is .618 retracement as well as old trend line level. It is unlikely that this level will be cleared effortlessly and hence cautious approach is advisable.

Fresh short position should be created only below 5200 with stop loss of 5235.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options increased to 1.07 as against 1.01 yesterday.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 21.04.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE :

With US markets closing positive, Nifty Future opened firm and made a high of 5255 to fill the gap left yesterday. Thereafter, it came down and closed at 5226.

While today's candle does suggest some more down side, but that eventuality will gain credence only if Nifty Future goes below 5200. Tomorrow, one can consider going long with stop loss of 5190. On higher side, 5275 - 5305 and 5365 will act as resistance levels.

Fresh short position should be taken below 5190 with stop loss of 5230. On down side 5165 and 5120 will act as support.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options increased to 1.01 as against 0.86 on the previous trading day.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 20.04.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE:
On the back of weak US markets, Nifty Future opened with down side gap and made a low of 5162 - 1/3 level, and saw a good bounce to make a high of 5226 and closed at 5207.
Tomorrow, Nifty future can cme to fill the gap left today. One can go short at higher levels if Nifty Future touches 5285 levels as this could be a strong resistance area. Short position should be protected with stop loss of 5300.
Buying Nifty Future should be considered if Nifty Future comes to a level of 5120 as this could be a strong support area. Buy position should be protected with stop loss of 5090.
Put Call Ratio of Index Options decreased to 0.86 as against 1.02 on the previous day.
Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.
With Best Wishes,
Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 19.04.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE :

In Friday's trading Nifty Future remained weak throughout the day and has taken support on the trend line shown in EOD chart and closed at 5263. With US markets closing weak on Friday, we can expect a weak opening and have to see if Nifty future takes support at 5225. If this level is broken, Nifty Future will find support @ 5165 and major support at 5120.

In today's trading, one can consider going short, if it opens around 5260 with stop loss of 5315. It is advisable to avoid going short in the event of gap down opening.

Fresh buying in Nifty Future should be considered around 5120 with a stop loss of 5095.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options decreased to 1.02 as against 1.05 on the previuos trading day.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 16.04.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE:

On the back of good closing in US markets, Nifty Future opened with a gap and made a high of 5378 and remained in a narrow range during the first half of the day. In the second half we saw much awaited correction and Nifty Future made a low of 5268 and closed at 5277. Considering the close, we can expect weak opening tomorrow.

In tomorrow's trading, on break of 5250, Nifty Future will find support around 5225. I expect Nifty Future to take support around 5210 -5225 region. If it holds this level for some time. one can consider going long with stop loss of 5190. Further down, it will find support at 5170 and 5120.

On higher side it will find resistance at 5320 and will be a good level to go short with stop loss of 5255. As suggested earlier, fresh buying should be considered near 5210-5225 levels only.

Put Call Ratio of Index options is at 1.05 as against 1.01 on the previous day.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 15.04.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE :

In yesterday's trading, Nifty future remained weak and in 30 point range throughout the day. The positive feature for the day's trading was that it did not break 5300 levels and has taken support on the trend line shown in the EOD chart.

Considering that 5300 level has been held for 3 day's, one can consider going long if Nifty Future goes above 5345 and keeping a tight stop loss of 5300. On higher side it will find resistance at 5365 and 5420-5440 levels.

One can go short, if Nifty Future trades below 5300 and keep stop loss of 5340. On down side it will find support at 5285 and 5225.

Put Call Ratio of Index option decreased to 1.01 as against 1.35 on the previous trading day.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 13.04.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE:

Despite SEBI/IRDA conflicting views on ULIP's, Nifty Future opened steady, but immediatedly went down to make a low of 5322 (but not lower than Friday's low) and bounced back to make a high of 5367 and cafter volatile movement closed at 5343.

FM has intervened and ULIP problem seems to have been be pushed aside - atleast for the time being. Tomorrow, we will open with Infosys results which could then decide the market direction. On the higher side 5420 -5440 area continues to remain a major hurdle. in these circumstances, it will be better to go short at higher levels with stop loss of 5450. Short position should be considered below 5300 with 5340 as stop loss. On down side, it will find support at 5285 and 5225. At 5225 levels we can expect Nifty Future to take support on the trend line as shown in the EOD chart and hence would be a good point to go long with stop loss of 5190.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options increased to 1.35 as against 1.20 on the previous trading day.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 12.04.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE:

Contrary to my expectations, Nifty Future opened firm on Friday and went up to make a high of 5389 and closed little lower at 5365 and the close is also back inside the wedge - being shown on the EOD Chart.

With US markets closing firm on Friday, we can expect the markets to open firm tomorrow. The critical point is whether Nifty future is able to muster enough strength to cross previous high of 5398. However, we will have to then face major hurdle around 5420 and 5440 levels.

One can consider going long on Monday with 5325 as a stop loss. On higher side it will face resistance at 5400 and 5420-5440 levels referred above.

Fresh short position should be considered only below 5330 with stop loss of 5365.

Put Call Ratio of Index options decreased marginally to 1.20 as against 1.23 on the previous day.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 09.04.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE :

In today's trading, Nifty Future displayed weakness right from the beginning and after the mid session, saw a major fall as it came out of the wedge discussed yesterday. But for some strength displayed by Infosys, the fall would have been sharper. At the end of the day, Nifty Future closed outside the wedge - suggesting further weakness.

Considering today's close, we can expect weak opening tomorrow. One can go short around 5330 with a stop loss of 5365. On lower side, Nifty Future will find support at 5250 and major support near 5220 levels. If this support holds for sometime, one can either buy 5300 Call Option or buy Future and put option as a hedge. Buying naked future should be avoided at this stage. Moreover, those who have sold stock at higher levels, should consider replacing the same, as we will be entering results season beginning next week.

Put Call Ratio of Index options decreased to 1.23 as against 1.36 yesterday.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.
With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 08.04.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE :

In today's trading, Nifty Future managed to make a new high of 5398 - but not cross - the trend line, being referred in my post for the past few days. During the second half of the day, Nifty Future corrected sharply to make a low at 5343 where it took support at 25% retracement and bounced back with force to close at 5378. Interesting point to observe in the EOD chart is that, Nifty Future is moving within a very narrow area of a rising wedge as can been seen on the EOD chart. Normally, when the price bar comes out of the Wedge, the correction can be very sharp.

In view of the last hours up move, today' s EOD candle still gives hope for this move to go up to 5420-5440 range, which is a major resistance area. It is not advisable to create fresh long positions at current level. One can consider going short below 5350 with stop loss of 5380. On down side it will find support at 5335 and 5285.

Put Call Ratio of Index Option increased to 1.36 as against 1.20 yesterday.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 07.04.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE:

In today's trading Nifty Future opened firm and made a new high @ 5387, but could not cross the trend line as can be seen on the EOD chart. By the end of the day, Nifty Future closed at 5367.

Considering today's candle, we can still expect Nifty Future to cross the trend line at 5397 tomorrow and face strong resistance at 5420-5440 levels. At these levels I would not recommend new long positions. Existing long positions should be trailed with stop loss of 5350.

One can consider going short if Nifty Future trades below 5330 with stop loss of 5365. It will find support @ 5285 and 5245.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options remained at 1.20 as against 1.22 yesterday.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 06.04.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE:

Nifty Future opened today with a gap, but could not muster enough strength to breach the previous high till late in the day, as in last hour of trade it crossed the previous high to make new high at 5373 and also closed @ 5366 - near the high of the day. You will observe in the EOD chart that Nifty Future though up still remains below the trend line being shown for the past few days. Even if this trend line is crossed tomorrow at 5385, we are heading for a major resistance are of 5420 - 5440 shown in the chart as the upper line of the Andrew's Pitchfork. Needless to repeat that we are into 9th consecutive week of rise.

Considering today's close we can expect good opening tomorrow, but buying at higher levels will not be out of danger. It will be better to book some profits at higher levels, even in individual scrips. Existing long positions in Nifty Future should be trailed with stop loss of 5320.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options increased to 1.22 as against 1.19 on the previous day.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 05.04.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE :
On weekly basis, last weeks' candle indicates Doji - suggesting indecisiveness. Another point that needs to be noted is that Nifty future is forming higher top and higher bottom for the past eight weeks.

Going by the above, we have to continue with upward bias, though last week, Nifty Future did not show strength when it broke the previous high. One can consider going long with stop loss of 5275. On higher side, it will find resistance at 5345 - 5370 and major resistance at 5420. Considering the steady up move for the past eight weeks one needs to be cautious at higher levels particularly around 5420-5440.

It is not advisable to go short unless Nifty Future trades below 5260 with stop loss of 5300.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options increased t0 1.19 on the close of Friday's trading.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.