NIFTY FUTURE WEEKLY / BANK NIFTY FUTURE WEEKLY
NIFTY FUTURE:
In the past six weeks, its the first week when we saw a good pullback from the bottom and thereby improving the possibility for a Budget Rally. In the current down move, Nifty Future has taken support on the trend line (shown on the chart in red colour). However, lower top/lower bottom formation continued for one more week.
Is the worst over?
Not really, as there are many hurdles to be crossed on the way up. While trading position may give good return in a short time frame - two to three weeks, it is not yet time to make investment buying. We have major resistances at 5420 - 5555 and 5650. As we are about 2 weeks from the Budget day, we can hope to reach 5650 level by that time and then the Budget Analysis can decide future course of the Market. Considering the current market scenario, I would consider the bias to be negative. This situation can reverse dramatically only in the event of some path breaking steps in the Budget, which may change the otherwise bearish sentiment. Now the higher levels around 5650 should be used to sell long positions or go short.
Bank Nifty Future:
On the weekly chart we are moving in a channel since the time it made a top of 13320 in Nov. 2010. On the way up, there will be resistance at 10700 and major hurdle at 11000. In the event of it crossing the channel at 11000, we should be careful at 11600 levels as it will be 50% of the fall. As such, this time we have a bounce due to multiple reasons viz, 0.618 level, Trend line support and the 10000 level. In the next down move, once recent low of 10030 is breached, we may see further down side.
Buying should be considered only with trading objective and with a strict stop loss.
While selecting the companies to buy for this up move, stick to good quality stocks and please avoid those Companies which have broken 2008 low levels.Buying should be considered only with trading objective and with a strict stop loss.
Have a sigh of relief as the markets may see some up side after six weeks of sustained fall and Enjoy your weekend!
Ketan Asher.
Respected Sir-Firstly,accept my heartly wishes for the fantastic guidance you have provided us so far.Truly top class analysis.Please keep guiding.
ReplyDeleteSir-What is the time-wise projection for the right shoulder to be completed in on the weekly chart of Nifty-Future? Regards Ram Chad
PS-Kindly ignore my poor english
I have assumed it as likely to be same as Left shoulder which is 21 weeks and is marked. Starting from the top made on Diwali day, 21 weeks comes to about April end or so.
ReplyDeleteWith the market movement in the past few weeks, I feel we are on the right course to achieve the target of 4400-4500 in the weeks ahead. Budget itself may be a mjor turning point.
Many thanks for the appreciation.
Keep Learning.
Ketan Asher.
Respected Sir-Thanks a lot for your kind reply.
ReplyDeleteSir,according to my calculations-21st week starting from diwali day ends on 1st april 2011{friday}.
Kindly guide me about this confusion and oblige.
Regards
Ram Chad