NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE : HISTORY CHECK FOR MARCH - 6 NEGATIVE & 4 POSITIVE CLOSE over the past 10 years.
In today's trading, Nifty Future opened firm and remained volatile during the Budget presentation. As there were no negatives in the Budget announcement (that is what I resume), Nifty Future crossed 5420 and made the day's top at 5499. But in later part of the day gave up all the gains to make the day's low of 5310 and closed the day at 5338. On the EOD chart you will observe that the trend line (in blue) seems to be a major hurdle to cross, although the reference point is getting lower with passing of each day. Needless to say the close for the day is weak.
More than that, today being monthly close for February, the close is very significant in the sense that we have completed first month outside the channel after 20 months. Though there is a lower shadow (suggesting buying at lower levels) on the monthly candle. the significant factor to note is that after many months there is a lower top / lower bottom on the monthly chart. Definitely not a great thing to happen and leaves good possibility for some more down side. Another bearish signal (in the making) is the 50 DMA getting ready to cut 200 DMA on the EOD chart.
In view of the positive close for the day, RSI on the EOD chart continues to indicate some upside possible. In view of the same, long position may be taken with strict stop loss of 5300. On the higher side, 5380 - 5420 and 5485 will provide resistance.
In case of a weak opening, short positions may be considered below 5300 with stop loss of 5340. On the down side 5240 and 5200 will provide support.
Put Call Ratio of Index Options increased to 0.99 as against 0.85 on the previous trading day.
Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.
With Best Wishes,
Ketan Asher.
PS: Nifty Future Monthly chart for FEB 2011 uploaded.
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