NIFTY FUTURE 3O MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE :
As mentioned in my weekly post yesterday, Friday gave the week's High (5566) and low (5357) and closed at 5387. While things look bleak, I hope my arguments for bottoming out in the beginning of the next week, bring some hope to the readers - that all is not lost.
In my weekly post I have mentioned the support levels at 5338 and 5318. Moreover. we also have support of at 5383 (0.618 of 4786 to 8349) as shown on the attached EOD chart.
The more interesting reasons for expecting Nifty Future to take support in the coming days is that Tuesday is the 64th trading day from the Top made at 6349 and Friday was 91st calendar day from the same Top.
In my view, these two important day counts from the top, the Fibonacci supports referred above, the oversold oscillators on the EOD chart indicate that we should be near to the short term bottom for now. Once we are out of the falling Wedge pattern shown on the chart - which may take a day or two as we are near to the lower range of the wedge, we will have more people believing that the market are set to rise in run up to the Budget day.
As my arguments are for an optimistic scenario, one needs to tread cautiously and buy on delivery basis or buy call options for Nifty.
For tomorrow, it would be safe to have a positive bias once Nifty future trades above 5420 with stop loss of 5365. On the higher side, it will have to face resistance at 5460 and 5475 range. Once this is crossed, we have 5555 (Laxman Rekha) to contend with.
As mentioned for the whole of last week, I would not advise going short at lower levels.
Strength and conviction will return once we are out of the falling wedge and also above the Laxman Rekha.
Put Call Ratio of Index Options decreased marginally to 0.91 as against 0.95 on the previous trading day.
Please do not trade witout STOP LOSS.
With Best Wishes,
Ketan Asher.
PS: Missed out to mention that Friday's big range coincided with Gann turn date of 4th February. We can take it as one more reason to expect a turn around.
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