TURNING POINTS FOR 01.03.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE : HISTORY CHECK FOR MARCH - 6 NEGATIVE & 4 POSITIVE CLOSE over the past 10 years.

In today's trading, Nifty Future opened firm and remained volatile during the Budget presentation. As there were no negatives in the Budget announcement (that is what I resume), Nifty Future crossed 5420 and made the day's top at 5499. But in later part of the day gave up all the gains to make the day's low of 5310 and closed the day at 5338. On the EOD chart you will observe that the trend line (in blue) seems to be a major hurdle to cross, although the reference point is getting lower with passing of each day. Needless to say the close for the day is weak.

More than that, today being monthly close for February, the close is very significant in the sense that we have completed first month outside the channel after 20 months. Though there is a lower shadow (suggesting buying at lower levels) on the monthly candle. the significant factor to note is that after many months there is a lower top / lower bottom on the monthly chart. Definitely not a great thing to happen and leaves good possibility for some more down side. Another bearish signal (in the making) is the 50 DMA getting ready to cut 200 DMA on the EOD chart.

In view of the positive close for the day, RSI on the EOD chart continues to indicate some upside possible. In view of the same, long position may be taken with strict stop loss of 5300. On the higher side, 5380 - 5420 and 5485 will provide resistance.

In case of a weak opening, short positions may be considered below 5300 with stop loss of 5340. On the down side 5240 and 5200 will provide support.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options increased to 0.99 as against 0.85 on the previous trading day.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

PS: Nifty Future Monthly chart for FEB 2011 uploaded.

TURNING POINTS FOR 28.02.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE:

After a strong opening and making the day's high of 5347, Friday's session remained volatile, with Nifty Future making a new low for the week at 5233. However, in the second session once again the strength emerged to close the day at 5313.

With a major event like Finance Budget tomorrow, Nifty Future is poised in such a way that above 5420 it gets strength and below 5175 it gets weak. As regards the break of 5175, I must mention that we have unfilled gaps at 5138 and 5092. Hence, Nifty Future can come down to fill these gaps and bounce from these levels. As I have been mentioning for the past few days, the oscillators - particularly RSI is not suggesting too much bearishness and hence my optimism for the up side.

For those who must trade, long position may be considered in the opening session with stop loss of 5280. On the higher side, it will find resistance at 5385 and 5420. In view of the higher volatility, one can consider going short at the resistance levels with suitable stop loss.

Ideally on the day of major event and uncertainity of its impact on the markets, it is prudent not to have trading positions. Either one can be on the side lines, or one can do buying in cash market on delivery basis.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options decreased significantly to 0.85 as against 1.01 on the previous trading day.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR WEEKENDED 25.02.2011

NIFTY FUTURE WEEKLY

The week that went by, saw a 306 points range (High 5539 & Low 5233) and closed at 5313. With the fall to the weekly low of 5233, we are close to the previous low of 5175 and also the trend line on which has provided support.

The readers will recall that for past few months, I have been showing the possibility of forming the Right Shoulder wherein Nifty Future could go down to 4400. Now that everyone is considering that possibility, it is time to review the situation. The possibility of the 4400 (or close to it) gets accentuated once we go below 5000. However, I would like to highlight the time element of what I had been showing for so many weeks. From the 21 weeks starting Diwali Top, we are now short of about 5 weeks. Hence, we need to keep a watch whether, Nifty Future goes down to 4400 levels in the next 4 weeks or so - or Nifty Future bounces without going down up to 4400 levels and just completes the time wise correction.

We have a major event in the form of Budget announcements on Monday and that also happens to be the month end for monthly candle formation. The past week's candle on the weekly chart is showing side way movement. As I understand, we are poised to go either way depending Budget announcements. That is, below 5175 it can get weak and above 5420 (that is if Budget announcements are too good) we can go up to 5700 i.e if we clear 5555 decisively this time around.

On such eventful day, it is better to be on the side lines or at least trade small quantity with strict stop loss.

Have a nice weekend!

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 25.02.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE :

In today's trading, Nifty Future opened weak and after a feeble attempt to go higher, made a top of 5430 and thereafter maintained a downward bias throughout the day to make a low of 5251 and closed at 5265. Needless to say that the close has been weak that too on the FNO settlement day. With today's low, we are now very close to the previous low of 5175.

Will Nifty Future break the previous low?

Well it can, but I would still like to believe the answer is NO - for the following reasons.

1. Today was FNO settlement day and I would consider the nervousness on account of this.

2. Oscillators are not falling at the same speed and hence not looking too weak.

3. Assuming that weakness continues tomorrow in the opening session - we can take support around 5200 and bounce back.

4. Friday effect - If you consider the weekly candle with one more low tomorrow and break of 5175, then we seem to be heading for a much deeper levels right away. With budget announcements on Monday, this argument doesn't gell, as the weakness should continue after the presentation of the budget and assuming that the same is not found favorable.

While there can be different point of view on the subject as well as the arguments given above, I would not advise going short at lower levels. (Even after being wrong in being optimistic today).

Considering the above, I would suggest going long at the first sign of Nifty Future taking support around 5225 with strict stop loss of 5175 or 5200 depending on your comfort level.

In case of steady opening, one can consider going long above 5300 with stop loss of 5250. On the higher side, it will find resistance at 5340 - 5390 and 5420.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options increased marginally to 1.01 as against 0.98 yesterday.

Whatever may be your view, please do not trade without STOP LOSS or better still protect all future positions with buying suitable options.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 24.02.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE:

After a weak opening, Nifty Future remained in a narrow range for better part of the day. In the second session, it made a high of 5502 but thereafter gave up all the gains and made low of the day at 5427 - marginally lower than the previous day. The good part of the day's trading was that it did not breach 5420 and on the EOD chart the set up for the Inverse Head & Shoulder is intact - as of today.

Effective tomorrow, we are entering a volatile days ahead. Starting with FNO settlement and ending with Budget session on Monday. Nifty Future is at a crossroad, whereby below 5420 it has the potential to go down to 5330. On the higher side, if 5520 is breached, it can go to 5600 and above it 5675. Oscillators set up on the EOD chart suggests that we are likely to go up - fall in the US markets notwithstanding. In this connection, I would like to highlight that when compared to the base date of 1.1.2011 - DOW is + 5% where as Nifty Future is -12%.

As regards tomorrow, Trade if you must and can digest higher volatility. On the down side, one can consider going short below 5420 with stop loss of 5450. At lower levels, we have support at 5380 and 5330. As mentioned yesterday, I expect 5330 support to hold at least for now.

You will need to change the view to positive above 5520. When this happens, we can go up to 5600 and 5675.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options decreased marginally to 0.98 as against 1.05 yesterday.

Please do not trade without actually putting stop loss in the system.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 23.02.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE :

In view of the fall in World markets, all the excitement of a good opening for our markets had vanished even before the opening session, in view of SGX Nifty trading down by about 50 points. Though, Reliance did open with a gap, it gave up most of the gains, in view of rest of the market being weak. Overall a volatile day (High of 5520) with downward bias and one more day below the trend line (in blue) and also the key resistance level of 5555. The good part for the day's trading was that it has not broken the previous day's low and did pullback from the day's low of 5428 and closed the day at 5470.

While the set up for the inverse Head & Shoulder remains intact - at least for today and the hope that it can break tomorrow, remains open. However, we have to also see the impact of weak US markets tomorrow.

For tomorrow, one should go short below 5440 with stop loss of 5485. The fall will accelerate below 5420. On the down side we have support at 5420 - 5380 and finally the 5330 level, where a gap has to be filled. At this level, we have 0.618 level of the correction (5175 and 5589). Moreover, in view of the FNO Settlement on Thursday & Budget on Monday, I expect 5330 level to hold at least for the time being. At the first sign of stability around this level, one can consider going long with stop loss of about 35 points. However, for any reason we close below 5330, it should be considered very weak.

Though market is expected to be weak, one will have to change the view to positive if Nifty Future moves above 5520. Though this looks unlikely after looking at todays movements.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options remained almost unchanged at 1.05 as against 1.06 yesterday.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 22.02.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD / RIL WEEKLY

NIFTY FUTURE:
In the opening session Nifty Future maintained downward bias and went down to make the day's low of 5411 and in the last session made a sharp turn around to make the day's high of 5539 and closed the day at 5528 - near the high of the day. The turn around was led by IT, Banks, ONGC, and Reliance Industries. With announcement of a deal between RIL and BP(may be after market for us), RIL GDR (in London Stock Exchange) is trading at about + 7%. This will definitely have its positive impact in the opening session tomorrow.

This news could take Nifty Future above the trend line in the opening session itself and then the scramble for short covering could do the rest. As a rule, I do not favour buying in Gap open and hence those who are long today should trail their long position in the opening session just below today's high of 5539. On the higher side, it will find resistance at 5640 and 5680 for multiple reasons. However, with a positive announcement in a heavy weight stock like RIL can help cross any resistance levels easily. In all this enthusiasm, we must not forger that European markets are weak and thankfully US markets are closed for today. In my view, it will be prudent to sell when Nifty Future reaches the resistance levels indicated above.

I have drawn a Neck line (in blue) for the Inverse Head and Shoulder (bullish) on the EOD chart which gives a target of 5989 (say 6000) once Nifty Future trades above 5590. With FNO settlement just on the 3rd trading day from here, bulls couldn't have asked for more. These type of post market announcements and the consequential effect on the market, the next trading day, further reinforces my faith in the Turning Points Grid kind of method.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options decreased to 1.06 as against 1.21 on the previous trading day.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

PS : In view of major announcement by RIL, I have also attached Weekly chart with my comments on it.

TURNING POINTS FOR 21.02.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE:

Friday's trading saw a good rise up to 5589 in the morning session but gave up all the gains to make the day's low at 5436 and closed the day at 5454. While the fall had been steep, please see it in context of 5555 level and the trend line (in blue) which has now been the hurdle for the 3rd time. Next time around when this is broken decisively, we can see some more upside. May be, Nifty Future has come down to form the right shoulder as indicated in Friday's post. I will mark the Neck line in tomorrow's post. We must also see our markets in context of Global markets, which are fairly buoyant.

For today, further down side should be considered below 5420. If this is breached, one can go short with strict stop loss of 5450. On the down side, it will find support at 5380 and 5330.

In the event Nifty Future goes above 5485 (that too without breaking Friday's low of 5436) one can consider going long with stop loss of 5455. Considering that the trend line (in blue) has been providing resistance on past 3 occasions, this time I would expect it to cross the same to go for the next strong resistance at 5640. I do not expect this to be cleared at the first attempt considering that this is a 200 DMA level and also a trend line resistance.

Looking at the oscillators on the EOD chart, I am more inclined for a positive bias than a negative one and short sellers may do well to cover up short positions at lower level, if the same is available today or at least have a tight stop loss.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options remained almost unchanged at 1.21 as against 1.20 on the previous trading day.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR WEEKENDED 18.02.2011

NIFTY FUTURE WEEKLY

NIFTY FUTURE :

After the previous 3 weeks' sustained fall, the last week ended with a positive close and also a higher top/higher bottom - despite a big fall on the last trading day of the week.

While the Friday's close does look weak, the weekly close doesn't indicate so much weakness for the reasons indicated above, hence further weakness may be anticipated only if Nifty Future trades below 5420. Moreover, we are just a few trading sessions away from two events viz. FNO settlement on next Thrusday and immediately followed by the Finance Budget announcement on the Monday (28th Feb). These events will have their push/pulls on the market next week and thereby making it volatile.

On the down side we have supports at 5420 - 5375 and major support at 5330 (Gap left on last Monday).

In view of the two events referred above, one would do well to shed the bearish view, once Nifty Future starts trading above 5485 (without breaking Friday's low of 5436), as Friday's fall can be considerd as an one off evnet prior to clearing the hurdle of 5555 decisively on weekly basis. Also please remember the point of Right Shoulder formation discussed in Friday's post. I think Monday's 1st hour should set the tone for the coming week.

Wtih Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

PS: I will not be able to post 'TURNING POINTS FOR 21.2.2011" tomorrow evening and will do my best to post the same by 8.00 a.m. on Monday.

TURNING POINTS FOR 18.02.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE :

After a steady opening and making the day's low of 5460 (just 2 points above the previous day) Nifty Future maintained upward bias throughout the day. In the last hour, it made the day's high of 5550 and closed firm at 5546. We are now close to the resistance level of 5555-5570.

Though little unconventional, but a noteworthy coincidence - we had 5 days down and 5 days up to cover almost the same distance. We are now close to mid point as well as near to the trend line (in blue and again unconventional but has provided resistance on 2 earlier occasions). Though, the market has closed firm, I continue to maintain that these resistance may not be easily breached.

Secondly, a fall from here will now give us a right shoulder on the EOD chart if Nifty corrects even up to 5365. Once this correction is done we have a head and shoulder target which can take us up to about 6000 around budget time. This is how I see market shaping up in the coming days and needs to be reviewed during market hours and it will get nullified if Nifty Future crosses 5570!

In view of the above, I would not advise fresh buying at higher levels. Short position may be taken at the first sign of weakness in the opening session with stop loss of 5600 or to be safe one can consider going short below 5485 with stop loss of 5525. On the down side it will find support at 5445 - 5420 and 5365. Fall below 5484 could be sharp.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options increased to 1.20 as against 1.05 on the previous day.

Even if you share the view given above, please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 17.02.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE :

In today's trading, after a firm opening, Nifty Future remained choppy throughout the day and made a 50 points range - new high of 5508 & Low of 5458. It closed the day @ 5485 with the day's candle as a doji - suggesting indecisiveness.

For tomorrow, we have to consider that Nifty Future will be bullish if it crosses 5510 as many stop losses will trigger and considering that we have major resistance at 5555 - 5570 range, I would not advise taking fresh long positions, unless one is ready to take the additional risks at higher levels.

In the event, Nifty Future is not able to break the 5510 levels, one can consider going short below 5450 with stop loss of 5485. In case of a firm opening, and Nifty Future going near to the resistance level of 5555, one can consider going short, with stop loss of 5600. On the lower side, it will find support at 5420 - 5365 and 5330. If Nifty Future trades below 5365, be prepared to see Nifty Future testing the previous low of 5175.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options increased to 1.05 as against 0.99 yesterday.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 16.02.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE :

In the opening session, Nifty Future went down to make the day's low of 5397 and after 11 a.m. made a sharp turn around on the back of rise in Bank stocks. Thereafter, Nifty Future maintained upward bias and made the day's high of 5504 and closed the day at 5476. On the EOD chart you will find a trend line (in red) which may provide resistance.

For tomorrow, I would continue to suggest that fresh long positions should be avoided at higher levels. As mentioned yesterday, 5485-5500 will act as resistance. In the event it manages to cross the trend line referred above at 5510, it will have major resistance at 5555-5570 region.

As can be seen on the 30 min chart, Nifty Future is very close to the trend (in blue). Once this trend line is broken below 5460, one can consider going short below 5450 with stop loss of 5480. On the down side, it will find support at 5400 - 5370 and eventually 5325 to fill the gap left during yesterday's opening session. One can even consider buying 5300 puts which was available at Rs. 19 at the close. In the event, Nifty Future is not able to break 5510, probability of Nifty Future going for deeper correction will increase. As such, Nifty Future trading at 5 points discount to the spot, does indicate that market is factoring the above possibility.

As regards, Bank Nifty Future, it made a high of 11010 and retraced to close the day at 10936. It will now get strength only when it crosses the 11000 level where it goes above the channel on the EOD chart. Weakness will accelerate below 10700.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options increased to 0.99 as against 0.91 yesterday.

While above refers to Nifty/Bank Nifty Future, please do not forget to use suitable STOP LOSS for individual stocks too.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 15.02.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE:

In today's trading, Nifty Future opened with a gap and remained firm throughout the day to make a high of 5468 and closed firm @ 5456, near the high of the day. The up move was sharp enough to take the indices above the previous weeks' high and compared to the fall of over 1000 points (in 26 days) we are up 293 points - just in 2 days. While the fast up move did give relief to many, one needs to be extra careful in the coming days, as we have approached the resistance area too fast.

For tomorrow, while existing long postions may be trailed with a stop loss of 5400, I would not advise fresh long position at higher levels. On the higher side, 5485-5500 and 5555 - 5570 range could act as a hurdle and result in a sharp down move. Those who have bought Nifty Future calls will do well to liquidate the same when Nifty Future trades near the 5500+ levels. In the event of a down move, these can be considered for buying again at the lower levels.

Short position may be taken at 5555-5570 with stop loss of 5600. As a contrarian (and safe) trade, one can even consider buying 5300 puts at about Rs. 15/- or so. On the down side, 5400 - 5350 and 5300 will provide support. As such, it is safe to assume, that if market can have a sharp move up, it can equally fast give up all the gains too - just as it did last week.

In case of Bank Nifty Future, 10900 and 11000 may provide strong resistance in the coming days.

Though unrelated, I would like to inform the readers, that Dow has reached a major resistance level (see updated chart) and hence may see correction any time now. This too can have some negative effect on our markets.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options increased to 0.91 as against 0.78 on the previous trading day.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 14.02.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE :

After a hesitant start and a marginal new low at 5175, Nifty Future made a strong up move to make the day's high of 5330 and closed strong at 5317. Its the first time in the week, when Nifty Future is able to cross the previous day's high. While the rally has been much awaited and will provide a big relief, the real test is it sustainability beyond 5370 (shown on the 30 min chart).

For tomorrow, one can consider going long above 5310 with stop loss of 5265. Buying in the event of a gap up opening should be avoided. On the higher side, it will find resistance at 5370 - 5420 - 5485.

Fresh short position should be taken only at higher resistance levels of 5650.

Please be selective about the items you consider for trading this up move. I would suggest sticking to Nifty Fifty and that too when it crosses the monthly mid point as per the TP Grid format which you will need to work out for the scrips that interest you. Please do not forget to keep the stop loss.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options decreased to 0.78 as against 0.84 on the previous trading day.

Please do not trade with out STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR WEEKENDED 11.02.2011

NIFTY FUTURE WEEKLY / BANK NIFTY FUTURE WEEKLY
NIFTY FUTURE:

In the past six weeks, its the first week when we saw a good pullback from the bottom and thereby improving the possibility for a Budget Rally. In the current down move, Nifty Future has taken support on the trend line (shown on the chart in red colour). However, lower top/lower bottom formation continued for one more week.

Is the worst over?

Not really, as there are many hurdles to be crossed on the way up. While trading position may give good return in a short time frame - two to three weeks, it is not yet time to make investment buying. We have major resistances at 5420 - 5555 and 5650. As we are about 2 weeks from the Budget day, we can hope to reach 5650 level by that time and then the Budget Analysis can decide future course of the Market. Considering the current market scenario, I would consider the bias to be negative. This situation can reverse dramatically only in the event of some path breaking steps in the Budget, which may change the otherwise bearish sentiment. Now the higher levels around 5650 should be used to sell long positions or go short.

Bank Nifty Future:

On the weekly chart we are moving in a channel since the time it made a top of 13320 in Nov. 2010. On the way up, there will be resistance at 10700 and major hurdle at 11000. In the event of it crossing the channel at 11000, we should be careful at 11600 levels as it will be 50% of the fall. As such, this time we have a bounce due to multiple reasons viz, 0.618 level, Trend line support and the 10000 level. In the next down move, once recent low of 10030 is breached, we may see further down side.
Buying should be considered only with trading objective and with a strict stop loss.

While selecting the companies to buy for this up move, stick to good quality stocks and please avoid those Companies which have broken 2008 low levels.
Have a sigh of relief as the markets may see some up side after six weeks of sustained fall and Enjoy your weekend!
Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 11.02.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE :

One more day of fall and new items getting weak viz. SBI & Infosys. Today Nifty Future opened weak and went down to make the day's low of 5210 and made an attempt to turn around and went up, to make the day's high of 5385. But that's all the strength for the day and by the end of the day, all the gains were lost to close the day at 5230. Well, just like a snake & ladder game.

Today's close being near the low of the day, down side is not yet capped and one needs to be prepared to see some more, if 5190 is broken. While looking for some more reasons for support, I came across a very small gap (Rs. 0.25) at 5138 on the weekly as well as EOD chart (please refer chart). Once this is filled, we would have filled all the gaps up to a previous low of 4786. This coupled with the neckline support at 5100 can act as a good support for a sharp bounce. Once again, the brave hearts can take long position in the event of further fall, with a strict stop loss of 5090.

This week, we had all the days making lower top / lower bottom and tomorrow is Friday -last day of the week. In the event of further fall and close near the day's low, we have a very weak candle for the week, which does not give any good indications for the next week. Conversely, if the market has to bottom out this week, tomorrow we must have a sharp up move - with or without a new low.

On the higher side, 5300 - 5330 - 5385 and 5400 will act as hurdles on the way up. As such, only the close above 5350 can provide positive signals for the next week.

Once again, I can not but resist the temptation of mentioning about the merits of taking trading guidance from the TP Grid. Pull back in Bank Nifty provided good trade up to 10272. I am sure all those who are referring to it and taking trades based on it will have less to regret even in this sharp down move. For others, its never too late to change to a good method.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options went down to 0.84 as against 0.90 yesterday.

PLEASE DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.
With Best Wishes,
Ketan Asher.

PS: Something special about tomorrow's date : 11022011 and it all adds up to 8! Will it provide a good buy signal for the next week? To know - stay tuned to the market and also put your stop losses tight.

TURNING POINTS FOR 10.02.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE :

One more day of blood bath and a lower top / lower bottom today. After a weak opening, Nifty Future did make an attempt for an up move, but that remained unsuccessful and thereafter, we saw panic selling in select stocks, based on rumours. The days' High was made at 5347 and low was at 5228. Good part of today's trading was that there was a sharp pullback from lower levels to close the day at 5261 - indicating that shorts are getting cut. In many cases, we are seeing prices which we never imagined were possible just a month back. A good example is IDFC which has a High of 185 in Jan 2011 and made a low of 115 today. I am sure there will be many more companies which can be counted as 'good companies' but have been thrashed mercilessly.

Once again I would say that I remain optimistic for a pullback rally and one more reasoning is indicated on the EOD chart, which gives possibility of a turn around tomorrow. Please feel free to check out the chart - if for nothing else, at least you will feel good, that turnaround is likely.

For tomorrow, I would continue to maintain buy small quantities on delivery basis and buy calls. When doing so, just recall all the good reasons which were being given when Nifty was at 6200-6300. They all still remain there - its just that peoples' perceptions have suddenly changed. With the new lows every day, one likely thing to happen is that for pullback, upside is getting capped. For now, I would consider the pullback to go up to 5700-5800, in the run up to the budget. While buying at the current level, keep the above levels as target to liquidate. This may provide a good trading opportunity and not the time for investment buying.

As usual, I do not advise going short at lower levels. One may buy Nifty Future above 5300 with stop loss of 5260. On the higher side, 5340 and 5400 will be hurdles. Confidence will return only above 5400, hence plan your trade taking into account high level of volatility. Prudence is in keeping away from futures for a while and focus on calls in Nifty for trading purpose. After all Money saved is money earned.

In case of weak opening, the brave hearts can even consider going long with strict stop loss of 5190.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options increased marginally to 0.90 as against 0.86 on the previous day.

PLEASE DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 09.02.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE :

In today's trading, after opening at yesterday's close levels, Nifty Future made a top of 5421 and thereafter maintained a downward bias throughout the day. At the first instance it took support at 5333 and tried a bounce for couple of hours and in absence of any buying support, in the last one hour made a low of 5304. On the EOD chart, you will find that it has taken support on a trend line running from the lows made in June 2010. As regards the wedge, it has gone marginally below it. The disappointing day closed near the low of the day at 5314. Even in Bank Nifty Future the situation was no better, as it continued the second day of making a new low. The fact that SBI is showing strength, is much comforting, else Bank Nifty Future would have been still worse.

I had indicated that today is the 64th trading day that too on the 8th of the month and this coincidence should help us to make a low. While a new low has been made, whether it will remain so and whether we will see a bounce from here? I remain hopeful, as there are no new negative triggers for the market, it is just the nervousness and lack one big positive day to shake out the bears that is needed. Let us hope we have it tomorrow, as it will vindicate my view of new low on the 64th trading day.

For tomorrow, I would suggest going long once Nifty Future trades above 5355, with a stop loss of 5300. On the higher side, it will face resistance at 5375 - 5420 and 5465. Considering my positive bias, I would recommend buying small quantity of 5500-5600 as a contrarian buy - particularly as we are just getting ready for a major event for the capital markets. Even delivery based buying of frontline stocks will also help you ride the pullback on the way to Budget Day.

While I continue to advise against going short at lower levels, I would also caution that buying without strict stop loss (particularly futures) is injurious to ones financial health, as markets can continue to slide, without taking cognizance of my positive bias.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options decreased to 0.86 as against 0.98 yesterday.

Even at the cost of being repetitive, I would urge you not to trade with out STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 08.02.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE :

Let's look at the good part of today's trading - it did not make a new low. After a firm opening and after two failed attempts to cross 5420, on the 3rd attempt it managed to cross the hurdle to make the day's high at 5445, but gave up major gains by the end of the day to close at 5394 and leaving us virtually where we were at the beginning of the day.

I had indicated yesterday, that we will take a couple of days to come out of the Wedge pattern after which we will be able to cross the 5555 level and see some confidence returning.

Although we did not make a new low today, the way we have close today does leave the possibility open that we can do so tomorrow. After all tomorrow is the 64th trading day from the top (6349) made on Muhurat trading day. Incidentally, Bank Nifty Future did make a new low today at 10341 and thereby making room to go down to 10087 (0.618 level).

For tomorrow, I would once again recommend going long only above 5420 with a stop loss of 5385. On the higher side, we have resistance at 5460 and 5485.

As mentioned above, today's close does open the possibility of a new low - but my view remains unchanged - do not go short at lower levels. As can be seen on the EOD chart we can go down to the lower channel support at 5330 - and hopefully see a bounce.

Considering the coincidence of 64th trading day that too on the date 8th, one would be better off trading in options, unless one has big appetite for risk trading in Futures. As indicated in yesterday's post and seen in today's trading, we will take a couple of days more, before seeing strength returning. We were once leading the recovery but in the current year, US markets seem to have taken over the lead and we are trailing - just like the hare and the tortoise story.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options increased to 0.98 as against 0.91 on the previous trading day.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 07.02.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 3O MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE :

As mentioned in my weekly post yesterday, Friday gave the week's High (5566) and low (5357) and closed at 5387. While things look bleak, I hope my arguments for bottoming out in the beginning of the next week, bring some hope to the readers - that all is not lost.

In my weekly post I have mentioned the support levels at 5338 and 5318. Moreover. we also have support of at 5383 (0.618 of 4786 to 8349) as shown on the attached EOD chart.

The more interesting reasons for expecting Nifty Future to take support in the coming days is that Tuesday is the 64th trading day from the Top made at 6349 and Friday was 91st calendar day from the same Top.

In my view, these two important day counts from the top, the Fibonacci supports referred above, the oversold oscillators on the EOD chart indicate that we should be near to the short term bottom for now. Once we are out of the falling Wedge pattern shown on the chart - which may take a day or two as we are near to the lower range of the wedge, we will have more people believing that the market are set to rise in run up to the Budget day.

As my arguments are for an optimistic scenario, one needs to tread cautiously and buy on delivery basis or buy call options for Nifty.

For tomorrow, it would be safe to have a positive bias once Nifty future trades above 5420 with stop loss of 5365. On the higher side, it will have to face resistance at 5460 and 5475 range. Once this is crossed, we have 5555 (Laxman Rekha) to contend with.

As mentioned for the whole of last week, I would not advise going short at lower levels.

Strength and conviction will return once we are out of the falling wedge and also above the Laxman Rekha.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options decreased marginally to 0.91 as against 0.95 on the previous trading day.

Please do not trade witout STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

PS: Missed out to mention that Friday's big range coincided with Gann turn date of 4th February. We can take it as one more reason to expect a turn around.

TURNING POINTS FOR WEEKENDED 04.02.2011

NIFTY FUTURE WEEKLY

What a week it was or rather what a Friday it was - when it managed to do the full weeks' high (5566) and low (5357) on the same day - giving the weekly range of 209 points but done just in one day.

Though we made a new low for the week and maintained lower top/lower bottom, we are very close to two major supports at 5338/5318 as shown on the attached chart.

At this level I would not recommend going short, but instead suggest delivery based buying. Those who have sold at higher levels should be more comfortable in replacing what they have sold. When I say this, I am referring to front line stocks and not to midcap/momentum stocks. One can even consider buying small quantity of 5700 call option which was traded yesterday at about 14.

We are just about 3 weeks away from the budget, and I am sure the event itself will generate expectations and optimism as we approach the Budget day. Moreover, there are couple of signals on the EOD chart which instill optimism, that we should be near to the bottom - at least for the time being and for a pullback. I will deal with the reasons in my post for Monday to avoid repetition.

While majority of traders/investors are more comfortable on the buy side, what to buy is always a worry. While I will not be in a position to give individual stock ideas, I would like to draw your attention to the mid point of 52 Week high/low. Incidentally, out of Nifty Fifty, 34 stocks are below the mid point, where as 16 are above it. Alternatively, one can even consider the monthly mid point as a reference point to get into a buy trade once your stock crosses this level. Please have your own logical stop loss level to take care of any unforseen eventualities.

Once we decisively cross 5555, we have 5640 and 5850 as major resistance levels.

Have a nice weekend!

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 04.02.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE :

Today's trading day provided much needed relief from the hammering we have seen for the past few days. After making the day's low of 5421 in the opening session, it maintained a positive bias throughout the day and made a high of 5546 and closed the day firm at 5539. The rally was led by Banking sector, Reliance and Bharati - after reporting drop in profit by 41%.

Interesting part of today's up move was that it did not cross major resistance at 5555 and more importantly, on the EOD chart it has remained sideways for the past 4 days and thereby forming a flag pattern. This pattern would get cancelled once Nifty Future remains above 5555. As such, in the (unlikely!) event of it going below the previous low of 5411, it opens up the possibility of Nifty Future going down to 5000! While today's move does not indicate this possibility, but as I have been mentioning for some time, downside remains open, as long as we remain below 5555 - and hence this observation to caution the readers to be on guard, when Nifty Future moves below 5475. Moreover, oscillators on the EOD chart yet do not confirm that "All is well".

For tomorrow, long position should be considered only if Nifty Future is able to remain above 5555 with a strict stop loss of 5525. On the higher side it will face resistance at 5570 - 5600 and strong hurdle at 5650.

Short position may be taken below 5475 with stop loss of 5510. On the down side, it will find support at 5430 and 5380.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options increased to 0.95 as against 0.86 yesterday.

Please do not forget to put the stop loss if Nifty Future goes below 5475 and as such - never trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.