NIFTY FUTURE WEEKLY
After a sustained fall for the past 5 weeks, we had a strong up move - in a truncated week. The week saw a range of 270 points (High 5072 & Low 4802) and saw a firm close at 5034.
On the attached weekly chart, I have drawn Andrew's Pitchfork which indicates strong support at 4600 level alongwith a trend line (in magenta).
I have also marked a period of 42 weeks starting from High of 6336 and low of 2228 in 2008. The entire fall amounted to 4108 points. Interestingly, this time around we have a low of 4718 (indicating fall of just 1631 points) in the 41st week from the high of 8349 in the last Diwali week. The point I would like to highlight is that in almost the same time,the fall has been less than 50% than the last time. I would read this as a positive feature and consider buying at lower levels i.e. around 4700 +or- 100 points and change my view to further bearishness only below 4600 as shown on the chart. For the market to fall below this level will need some major reasons. I for one am quite content with the events that have emerged over the past one year - which incidentally happened to be 64th year of our independence! I just wonder what more is left to emerge for the market to break the level of 4600.
In nutshell, I would suggest :
a) Not to remain too bearish at lower levels viz. 4700 +or- 100 poitns.
b) Consider buying blue chips at every fall up to 4600 with a plan to invest and not just trade for a few points.
Do pray Lord Ganesha over the weekend that the above view turns out to be true!
!!Ganpati Bappa Morya!!
Keep Learning,
Ketan Asher.
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