Tuesday, September 20, 2011

TURNING POINTS FOR 21.09.2011


NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE:


In today's trading, Nifty Future opened firm and maintained upward bias for the rest of the day. As such after many days, Nifty Future had a big range positive day with high of 5168 and low of 5036. The close @ 5167 is just at the high of the day, suggesting strong opening for tomorrow. So much for the good part of today's movement.


With today's up move, we are once again near the tough resistance area of 5200 (relaxable to 5225). This being the 3rd attempt to cross this level, there is a good possibility that we may cross this level and go up to fill the gap at 5325 - particularly after a strong move seen today. So much for the positives of the day.


Coming to the negatives, I would (once again) like to draw your attention to the complete reversal (compared to yesterday) in the Put Call data for today. While yesterday, I had indicated the possibility of an up move based on increase in open interest of Calls, today we see that there has been unwinding of the Call option of 5000 & 5100 strike price. What is surprising is a huge increase (46.40 lacs) in open interest of Puts having strike price of 5000, 5100 and 5200 for the current series. Just like yesterday, I would pose the same question from the Put Option buyers' point of view and you know what I am suggesting. Though looking at the chart there is no denying the strength, but one should not ignore this data too.


In light of the above contradictions, I would like to err on the side of caution and avoid adding fresh long positions at higher levels. Secondly, existing long positions may be carried with strict stop loss of 5100. Fresh short positions may be taken below 5100 with stop loss of 5150. For any reason, market opens weak (looks unlikely), one can go short with stop loss of 5225. On the down side , Nifty Future will have support at 5040 - 5000 and 4920.


With 22nd Sept being an important Gann turn dare, I would advise caution at higher levels as Nifty Future can re-test or even go below 4900 as suggested by the put option data discussed above.

Whatever you choose to do, please do not forget using STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

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