Wednesday, September 14, 2011

TURNING POINTS FOR 15.09.2011


NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE :
In today's trading, for the 3rd time Nifty Future took support on the trend line (low of 4908) and went up - after lot of volatility, to make the day's high of 5033 and closed firm at 5019. While the on the 30 min chart, it did cross the trend line, but was not able to cross the yesterday's high and fill the gap at 5042. More importantly, on the EOD chart, I have redrawn Andrew's Pitchfork which shows that today's top just remained short of crossing the median line.
For tomorrow, Nifty Future will continue the up move only if it is able to cross the trend line and also remains above 5050. However, since we have another reistance (0.618) at 5072, I am not advising long positions for tomorrow. If it manages to trade above this level, it will provide good opprtunity to buy 4700/4800 put options for the current month - as put oftions of Oct 2011are very expensive. I would like to caution the readers that one need not go over board (buy small quantity only) in buying the put options, as time to expiry is running out fast. In short, risk reward ratio is not that favourable like we had in the month of Aug 2011, when I had recommended buying of Put Optuons.
As the weakness below 4900 is now an open secret, I doubt if any body will get exit route below this level.
With RBI credit policy just round the corner, volatility will be high and hence please be cautious on the long side. STOP LOSS is a must.
With Best Wishes,
Ketan Asher.

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