TURNING POINTS FOR 30.09.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE:

After a not so strong opening, Nifty Future broke yesterday's low by just a few points to make the day's low of 4902. After some sideways movement, Nifty Future continued sustained up move for the rest of the day to make the day's high of 5036. This was mainly helped by Infy, Auto and Bank stocks. The FNO settlement day finallly closed at 5019. On the 30 min chart, I have marked a channel, which identifies the reason for the day's top. Secondly, 4900 is now an all too important a level for further down move.

Tomorrow is an important day in more ways than one as it is not only last day of the week, but more importantly last day of the month as well as the quarter. Will the up move continue tomorrow? Well it may, if it manages to move above 5040, just to find another hurdle @ 5080 (shown as a trend line in red) and the gap left on 22nd Sept @ 5119. I doubt if the up move will continue one way with so many hurdles and hence it is best avoided. If at all it manages to go up to fill the gap at 5120, it would be good a level to sell with stop loss of 5170.

Short position may be taken below 4990 with stop loss of 5040. On the down side it will find support at 4965 and 4920. Break of 4900 will bring the price out of the channel, and will accelerate the fall.

As regards the Index Option build up - 5200 Call has seen increase of 15.64 lakhs in open interest, on the put side there has been total increase of 33.47 lakhs in the strike price of 4700 to 5000. Thus once again puts continue to outnumber the calls.

While I will deal with weekly & montly chart during the weekend, it would suffice for now to mention that "All is not well" until and unless Nifty Futue breaks 5174 on the up side and it would be too far fetched to believe that we will be able to cross this level tomorrow itself.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 29.09.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE :
As expecteed, Nifty Future maintianained downward bias, immediately after making the day's high of 4995. During a volatile trading session it made day's low of 4906 and closed the day at 4937. The positive feature for the day was, that it did not break the previous day's low and it left a small lower shadow to the day's candle.
For tomorrow, one can consider going short below 4900 with a stop loss of 4940. On the down side, it will find support at 4875 and strong support at 4840. Considering that tomorrwo is an FNO settlement day, we can expect Nifty Future to take support at 4840 and bounce back.
In the event, Nifty Future does take support at 4840, one can consider going long with stop loss of 4800. On the higher side, it will find resistance at 4880-4920 and 4980. Please do not remain short above 4990.
Please be prepared for an above average volatiliy and trade smaller quantities and last but not the least, don't forget to use STOP LOSS.
With Best Wishes,
Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 28.09.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE:
On the back of up move in World markets, Nifty Future opened with a gap. Contrary to my expectation and after some initial hesitation, it maintained sustained up move through out the day. It made a low of 4905 and high of 4889 and finally closed firm at 4978.

As usual, I remain sceptical of the 'V' shaped recovery and hence advise caution at higher levels. Considering the continuation of up move today in the US and European markets, we too should continue the up move!

On the higher side, we have 5015 which could offer strong resistance as shown on the 30 min chart. Above that 5050 will offer resistance. In the event 5015 does provide resistance as expected, one can consider going short with stop loss of 5050. On the down side, 4950 - 4920 and 4870 will provide support.

In the event of a weak opening (though unlikely) one can consider going short below 4950 with stop loss of 5015. On the lower side, 4920 and 4870 will provide support. Weakness will accelerate below 4870.

While everything looks good, I would just like to draw your attention to the Index Options data where call options of the 4800 & 4900 have seen reduction in the open interest where as there is total increase in open interest of 52.43 lacs in the Put Options. Secondly, today Reliance was leading the up move. In this case too, you will find that while open interest in call option has reduced, there has been total increase of 3.47 lacs open interest in put options. I don't know why would some one sell call options and buy puts with just 2 days to FNO settlement and that too when market is rising. Just think about it get the right answer before the market opens tomorrow and trade accordingly.

In any case please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 27.09.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE :
After a weak opening, Nifty Future went down to make a low of 4756 and bounced back sharply to the day's high of 4879. It closed the day at 4844. Though the fact that it did not break the previous low of 4718 is a big positive, two things are worth noting today - it has closed lower than Friday and has made a lower top / lower bottom. Both these negatives, take away my optimism that worst is over paricularly when we look at the long lower shadow to the day's candle. On the attached 30 min chart, I have made at attempt to show the reason for resistance at the day's high of 4879. Secondly, I have drawn an ellipse on the EOD chart, which can guide us with the probable support/resistance levels for the next few days. Plese do spare your time to see these charts.
For tomorrow, I would suggest fresh long positions only above 4880 (i.e. above today's high) with a stop loss of 4840. On the higher side, it will find strong resistance at 4925-4950 level. I doubt if this level will be crossed in a hurry and hence the breavehearts can go short around this level with suitable stop loss.
While one can consider going short below 4820 with stop loss of 4880, I do not advise this stratergy, as I prefer to buy when Nifty Future hits the support levels and sell at resistance level - mainly due to my postivie bias that Nifty Future is unlikely to go below 4680. In the event that happens, I would suggest buying with stop loss of 4640. Needless to mention that my optimism may not turn out to be true and hence caution is advised if you choose to go by it. Though the time value component of Oct series options remains high, I would advise buying options when Nifty Future hits the lower levels, indicated above.
Though not directly related, I would like to add here that, one need not get carried away by the up move in the US & European markets at the time of writing this post as any few % points rise in those markets still does not give much hope/enthusiasm of sustained rise any time soon. Simply put, those charts look pathetic.
With FNO settlement just a few days away, volatility can only increase and hence, please do not trade without STOP LOSS.
With Best Wishes,
Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 26.09.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE :

After a weak opening on Friday, Nifty Future went down to make the day's low of 4819. The reason for getting the support is apparent on the 30 min chart, as it took support on the median level of Andrew's Pitchfork and also exactly on the circumference of the circle shown on the EOD Chart. It ended the day as doji - suggesting indecision.

In view of the exact nature of this support, new short position to be created only below last weeks' low of 4819 or safer still below 4800. However, considering my optimism for a bonce from 4680 level, I would recommend to avoid the last 100 points on the down side and instead be ready to buy at the first sign of Nifty Future taking support at the levels indicated by me - although with a strict stop loss of above 50 points. In case you are trading futures the buying at lower should be considered ideally in Oct 2011 series.

In case of a firm opening, one can consider going long above 4900 with stop loss of 4850. On the higher side, 4950 - 5000 and 5040 will provide resistance. Please note that higher the level, stronger the resistance.

There has been much unwinding of position in Put options for the current month, except 4600 strike price which has seen good amount (26.96 Lacs) of build up in open interest. This can be taken as a further indication of support emerging at 4600 levels for this month. On the call option side, there has been some build up in 4800 and 5000 strike price. I would not advise any trading in options for this month as there are just four trading sessions left for this settlement.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR WEEKENDED 23.09.2011

NIFTY FUTURE WEEKLY

During the week goneby, Nifty Future saw an above average range of 355 points (High of 5174 and Low of 4819). This week has once again shown us that 5200 level acts as a strong resistance area.

With last weeks' double top at 5174 and subsequent fall of nearly 300 points on Nifty Future, we are once again at the threshold of touching/pierecing the previous low of 4700. As shown on the attached chart, 4600 level should provide a good support area in view of the trend line (in magenta).

In view of the FNO settlement on Thursday, I would consider that Nifty Future may just go little below 4700 (my level 4680) and bounce back. I would recommend delivery based buying when Nifty Future hits the 4700 level. After all, we still have to see Nifty Future filling up the 5300 gap area and more importantly as per the Monthly chart we have Oct 2011 which should be of significant importance for an important bottom for the time being.

Though I am expecting a bounce from 4700 level, I would not recommend buying calls for Oct series in the next week, as high volatility has increased the premiums and particularly the time value element is quite high. It may be prudent to see at what level Nifty Future takes support next week and consider buying the Calls for Oct series in the following week.

Have a nice weekend!

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 23.09.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE :

And what a fall it was!. In a complete twist to the mood till yesterday, today's fall made it appear that there were no bulls left anymore. It is this type of fall which I had been anticipating for the past few days, which will prepare the ground for market to gather momentum to take it above 5200. While I will not bother you with the statistics, I would just add that after a gap down opening, today's fall has covered previous 7 days price action. On the 30 min chart you can see how well day's low has taken support at the Andrew's Pitchfork median level.

For tomorrow, I would not advise going short even if Nifty Future goes below today's low of 4898. I expect Nifty Future to find support at 4850 and show a bounce, more particularly as tomorrow is the last working day for the weekly chart (as usual, Friday effect). In the event, Nifty Future takes support around 4850 level on 30 min chart, one can consider going long with stop loss of 4800. On the higher side, it will find resistance at 4950. Upon crossing this level, Nifty Future may go up to 5040-5050. Much would depend, whether Nifty Future does not breaks today's low or takes support around 4850 before a bounce is seen.

As for investment buying, though the levels are tempting, I would suggest wait till next week, as by then, the market would find its bottom.

There has been much unwinding of positions in Put Options and some buying of 5000-5100 strike price. However, considering a short time to FNO settlement, I would not recommend any buying of calls for this series. As regards, buying calls for the next series, waiting for the next week will make the time value more affordable and realistic.

In these choppy times, please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 22.09.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE:

One more narrow range day, when Nifty Future made a high of 5174 and low of 5113. Today's high 5174 is an exact double top after which Nifty Future came down to make the day's low of 5113 and closed at 5141. While the set up does not suggest any bearishness, except the fact that Nifty Future retraced after making a double top and this should be considered worrisome for continuation of the up move. Interestingly, Bank Nifty Future shied away from the double top just by 6 points (previous top 9960).

At the time of writing this post, Europe is down by about 2% and US is waiting for the new twist that Fed announces sometime later today. While our opening session too will be guided by the way US markets close today, we must bear in mind that 5200 level is becoming a tough level to breach. As my bias remains negative, I would advise going short when Nifty Future trades below 5100 with stop loss of 5145. On the down side, it will find support at 5080. Fall below 5080 will accelerate the fall with support at 5040 & 5000. Please avoid buying at lower levels as there is good possibility of testing 4700 - 4800 level can not be ruled out yet.

Fresh long positions are best avoided even if Nifty Future is to break the 5174 level in the opening session, in the event of positive twist to the US markets, after announcements by the FED.

In the Index Option data, there has been unwinding of Call position and considerable increase in open interest on the Put side. I am sure most of you must now be reading the data available live on the NSE website.

Though the structure of EOD chart does give hope for the up move, please be cautious when Nifty Future breaks trend line on 30 min chart at 5080 - as the fall could be pretty sharp. In any case, please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 21.09.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE:

In today's trading, Nifty Future opened firm and maintained upward bias for the rest of the day. As such after many days, Nifty Future had a big range positive day with high of 5168 and low of 5036. The close @ 5167 is just at the high of the day, suggesting strong opening for tomorrow. So much for the good part of today's movement.

With today's up move, we are once again near the tough resistance area of 5200 (relaxable to 5225). This being the 3rd attempt to cross this level, there is a good possibility that we may cross this level and go up to fill the gap at 5325 - particularly after a strong move seen today. So much for the positives of the day.

Coming to the negatives, I would (once again) like to draw your attention to the complete reversal (compared to yesterday) in the Put Call data for today. While yesterday, I had indicated the possibility of an up move based on increase in open interest of Calls, today we see that there has been unwinding of the Call option of 5000 & 5100 strike price. What is surprising is a huge increase (46.40 lacs) in open interest of Puts having strike price of 5000, 5100 and 5200 for the current series. Just like yesterday, I would pose the same question from the Put Option buyers' point of view and you know what I am suggesting. Though looking at the chart there is no denying the strength, but one should not ignore this data too.

In light of the above contradictions, I would like to err on the side of caution and avoid adding fresh long positions at higher levels. Secondly, existing long positions may be carried with strict stop loss of 5100. Fresh short positions may be taken below 5100 with stop loss of 5150. For any reason, market opens weak (looks unlikely), one can go short with stop loss of 5225. On the down side , Nifty Future will have support at 5040 - 5000 and 4920.

With 22nd Sept being an important Gann turn dare, I would advise caution at higher levels as Nifty Future can re-test or even go below 4900 as suggested by the put option data discussed above.

Whatever you choose to do, please do not forget using STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 20.09.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE :
In today's trading, Nifty Future opened with a downside gap, that remained unfilled during the day. For the gap down opening it remianed a fairly small range day - just 46 points and thus a difficult day for the day trader. The support at the Andrew's Pitchfork median line, is well depicted on both - 30 min as well as the EOD chart. At the time of writing this post, US and Europe are trading nearly 2% down and we too can expect a weak opening.
Considering today's support on the median line, I would suggest going short below 5000 with stop loss of 5055. On the down side, it will find support at 4920 and 4884. In the event of Nifty Future taking support at this level, I would suggest squaring up of the puts as they are loosing time value very fast, with just 7 days left to FNO settlement.
Another important thing I would like to highlight is the FNO data which indicates that Put Call Ratio of Index Options increase to 1.20 (prev day 1.09). Though the total built up in put options has outnumbered the calls, we must not ignore the fact there has been significant increase in the open interest of Calls upto 5300. Just ask yourself - why would someone buy Call ranging from Rs. 100 for 5000 Calls to Rs. 10 for 5300 Call if Nifty Future is going to test 4700 levels during this month? If you recall, we still have unfilled gap to be taken care of in the 5300 range. And more importantly, the monthly chart indicates that Oct 2011 could be the critical month which could see a panic low.
I hope the explanation given above, helps you to take the right call on the market tomorrow. In any case do not remain short, when Nifty Future trades above 5055.
Whatever may be your view, please do not trade without STOP LOSS.
With Best Wishes,
Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 19.09.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE :

After a firm opening, Friday's trading remained volatile within 84 points range (High 5155 & Low 5071) - that too on a day when RBI announced 25 bps rate hike and a day earlier Govt. increased the petrol prices by Rs. 3.15 per litre. While there has been a small upper shadow on the EOD candle, but as the higher top /higher bottom is maintained, there is no indication that the bullish momentum is receding.

Once Friday's low is taken out, we can consider the Friday's high of 5155 as just short of double top by 20 points. In that event we may see a sharper fall when Nifty Future trades below 5040 & 5000. The problem as I see it is the level of 5200 (relaxable to 5220) which may not be crossed very easily. Though World markets have been rallying for the past one week, I am sure our very own problems of Inflation and high cost of borrowing will sink in - sooner than later. Even the Options data is skewed in favour of bearish bias with higher increase in open interest of Put Options. The put call ratio of the Index Options decreased marginally to 1.09 (previous day 1.13).

All in all, I would advise caution at higher level and better not to go long. One can consider going short when Nifty Future trades below 5040 with stop loss of 5090. The fall will accelerate when Nifty Future trades below 5000. On the down side, it will find support at 4950. In any case next week will be a make or break week for option traders on both sides of the fence, as time to settlement is running out fast. If you share my downward bias, selling 5200 call (with stop loss till Nifty Future crosses 5220) may turn out to be a profitable option.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS - more particularly when Nifty Future trades below 4950.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR WEEKENDED 16.09.2011

NIFTY FUTURE WEEKLY.

This week ended on a positive note, however with just one major negative - it made a lower top / lower bottom. The week's range was 254 points (High 5155 & Low 4901). It closed near the top of the week - which prima facie does not suggest any weakness.

Another major hurdle is the resistance at 5200 level - which I continue to believe will not be crossed so easily. While Nifty Future did close near the high of the day, the picture does not look so rosy, when one looks at the chart of HLL, Reliance, Infy etc. who led the rally for the past few days.

This weeks' rally has been supported by consitent up move in US/European markets - though comparison is not possible as the problems faced by them are entirely different than those faced by us. Moreover, they had fallen much harder and this could be just a dead cat bounce for them.

Seccondly, there has been a huge build up in the Put Options for the current series. This may help providing support to the market, if it falls below 4900.

Have a nice weeekend!

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 16.09.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE:

After a firm opening, Nifty Future went down to make the day's low of 4957. It was in the second session that we saw a sustained rise to the day's high of 5100 and closed the day at 5081. The day's rise can be attributed to the news of higher Advance Tax payments by leading corportaes and partly due to short covering as Nifty Future crossed the 5070 level. On the 3o min chart, you will find that the day's high is near to the Andrew's Pitchfork resistance line.
Another important highlight for today is that, in the oepning session itself Nifty Future mangaed to fill the gap left earlier.

For tomorrow, I would continue my cautious guidance at high levels and also avoid fresh buying. One can consider going short when Nifty Future trades below 5040 with stop loss of 5080. On the down side, fall below 5000 we reaffirm the weakness and fall could accelerate. On the downside, 4950 and 4920 will provide support. Move below 4900 will take Nifty Future quickly to 4800 levels. As the increase in Petrol price may have been announced after the close of markets, the same may not have been discounted in the upward movement of Nifty Future. In case of weakness in the opening session, one can consider going short with stop loss of 5110.
Even if market may have ignored the petrol price hike, what is important is the view taken by RBI on the monetary policy which is schedlued to be announced tomorrow.

I would request the readers - particularly those who are into full time trading, to view the option price data given on www.nseindia.com and is available online during market hours as it provides good insight into the collective wisdom of the market players. For example, at the EOD today, there has been increase in open interest of 10.46 lacs in Put Option of 5000 Strile Price. Overall there has been much increase in open interest of Puts than of Calls leading to put call ratio of 1.13. In case the current rally had much strength, the situation should have been exactly opposite.
As for every Friday, I would once again remind the readers, that if next week has to be weak, we should get the signal in the weekly candle which will form at the end of day tomorrow.
Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.
With Best Wishes,
Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 15.09.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE :
In today's trading, for the 3rd time Nifty Future took support on the trend line (low of 4908) and went up - after lot of volatility, to make the day's high of 5033 and closed firm at 5019. While the on the 30 min chart, it did cross the trend line, but was not able to cross the yesterday's high and fill the gap at 5042. More importantly, on the EOD chart, I have redrawn Andrew's Pitchfork which shows that today's top just remained short of crossing the median line.
For tomorrow, Nifty Future will continue the up move only if it is able to cross the trend line and also remains above 5050. However, since we have another reistance (0.618) at 5072, I am not advising long positions for tomorrow. If it manages to trade above this level, it will provide good opprtunity to buy 4700/4800 put options for the current month - as put oftions of Oct 2011are very expensive. I would like to caution the readers that one need not go over board (buy small quantity only) in buying the put options, as time to expiry is running out fast. In short, risk reward ratio is not that favourable like we had in the month of Aug 2011, when I had recommended buying of Put Optuons.
As the weakness below 4900 is now an open secret, I doubt if any body will get exit route below this level.
With RBI credit policy just round the corner, volatility will be high and hence please be cautious on the long side. STOP LOSS is a must.
With Best Wishes,
Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 14.09.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
As running out of time, just a brief post for today.
NIFTY FUTURE:
In a volatile trade yesterday, after a strong opening, Nifty Futurre chose to make the day's high of 5040 (who says miracles dont happen!), but fell short of filling the previous gap by just 2 points. In the second session, it gave up all the gains not only to fill the opening gap, but went very close to the previous low of 4901 to make the day's low of 4904. It finally closed the day at 4942. On the 30 min chart, you will find that Nifty Future has once again taken support on the trend line - thus making it all the more important. Another noteworthy point for the day is that Sensex and Bank Nifty breached the previous day's low - though marginally, which does not augur well for the market.
For today, guidance remains the same as yesterday. Go long above 4972 with stop loss of 4940. On the higher side, it will find resistance at 5050 and 5075. If 5075 is at all crossed, short covering itself can take Nifty Future to the previous high of 5174 - This possibility can not be ruled out as yet.
All in all, safer to trader in Puts & Calls. When Nifty Future trades higher do buy 4700-4800 puts.
In any case please do not trade without STOP LOSS.
With Best Wishes,
Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 13.09.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE :
In sync with the weakness in overseas market, Nifty Future too opened with a down side gap. During the day, after making the day's top of 4979 in the early trades, it made a low of 4901 - exactly on the trend line shown on the 30 min chart. As expected, NIfty Future bounced sharply from the day's low, but could not cross the day's high made in the early session - may be due to persisting weakness in the Eurpoean market.
For tomorrow, one can consider going long with stop loss of 4900. Those not willing to take risk may go long above 4980 with stop loss of 4940. On the higher side, it will face resistance at 5040 and major resistance at 5075. This being a pull back - may be to fill the gap, I would not advise going long except for trading purpose with strict stop loss of 4940. In the unlikely event of Nifty Future breaking 5075, there could be a remote possibility of Nifty Future testing 5200 level.
As I believe that Nifty Future will hold today's low of 4900, I have not considered going short. I do hope, US/European markets will provide the necessary impetus for us to hold today's low and help us to fill the gap left today.
Put Call Ratio of Index Options remained almost unchanged at 1.09 as against 1.07 on the previois trading day.
Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.
With Best Wishes,
Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 12.09.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE:

As expected, Nifty Future remianed bearish on Friday to close the week at 5053 - thus leaving long upper shadow on the weekly candle. The fact that Nifty Future could not cross the previos day's high of 5174 indicated that Nifty Future lacked the strength at higher levels.

Looking at the fall in US/Europe in yesterday's trading, we can expect a weak opening.

For tomorrow, one can consider going short below 5040 with stop loss of 5100. On the down side it will find support at 5000 - 4950 and 4900. In case NIfty Future takes support at 4900 for 30 min, one can consider going long with stop loss of 4865.

As is being mentioned in my post for quite some time now that Nifty Future can retest 4700 level or may even go little lower, however I would like to add that profit taking in short position will be a good strategy as markets need not crash in one day. After all the problems in the Developed countires like US / Europe are much different than ours.

Whatever may be your view on the market, please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher

TURNING POINTS FOR WEEKENDED 09.09.2011

NIFTY FUTURE WEEKLY

The weeks' trading ended on the expected lines with Nity Future closing at 5053. Though Nifty Future could not scale up to 5200, it did manage to make the weekly range of 242 points (High of 5174 & Low of 4932).

During the next week if Nifty Future trades below 5040 or more specifically below 5000, it opens the possibility of breaking this month's low and go down to test the previous low of 4700. As shown on the chart, we have good support at 4700.

Looking at this weeks' candle, upside of 5200 seems to have been capped for now.

Have a nice weekend!

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 09.09.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE :
Though Nifty Future opened firm today, it did not show much strength in the opening session. As such, it went down to the day's low of 5088. After much narrow trading, Nifty Future moved up in the second session to the day's high of 5174 and finally closed the day at 5155. Needless to mention that much of the rise today should be on account of short covering as Nifty Future trading in discount turned to premium.
My view for tomorrow remains the same as today. As we approach 5200 we are nearing the strong resistance level. I would not advise fresh long position at this stage as Nifty Future may see a sharp pull back from 5200 levels in veiw of the trend line as well as 50% level shown on the EOD chart. If this level is broken, Nifty Future can go up to 5300 level to fill the gap left when market opened lower after US downgrade.
I must caution here that if my bearish view from here is to come true, Nifty Future should move down tomorrow (may be after touching arround 5200) - as it is the last trading day for the week. Any bearishness going forward from next week, should most likely be reflected in this Week's candle.
For tomorrow, short position may be taken with stop loss of 5250. Bearishness will be confirmed only below 5100. Support comes in at 5050 and 5000.
Put Call Ratio of Index Options remained almost unchanged at 1.07 as against 1.05.
Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.
With Best Wishes,
Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 08.09.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE :
In today's trading, although Nifty Future opened with a gap, it remained hesitant in the early hours and came down to the day's low of 5078, and without filling the gap started going up to make the day's high of 5149. At this level, it corrected itself and closed the day at 5117. Today's candle is having a small upper shadow, suggesting cautious approach at higher levels.
While US / European markets are trading up at the time of writing this post, we must not forget that we have already corrected over 9% at today's high. On the back of good Global cues, we may open firm tomorrow, but have strong resistance at 5200 levels. As shown on the EOD chart, we have trend line (in Blue) resistance as well as 50% level of the swing. I do not expect Nifty Future to cross this resistance in the first attempt and may have a strong pull back from this level. I would suggest it is better to liquidate long positions at higher levels and wait for the markets to correct.
For tomorrow, we can consider going short when market trades about 5175 - 5200 range with stop loss of 5225-5250 levels. On the down side, it will have support at 5100-5070 and 5020. Alternatively, one can consider buying 5000 Put Option or sell 5300 call option when Nifty Future trades at higher levels.
I would like to add that Bank Nifty Future has strong resistance around 10000 and hence one needs to be cautious about long positions.
As being mentioned by me in Weekly post, we still have one more down move - if not lower, at least to make a double bottom - before we can say that the worst is over.
Put Call Ratio of Index Options decreased to 1.05 as against 1.14 on the previous trading day.
Please do not trade without STOP LOSS - as markets can get quite volatile at higher levels.
With Best Wishes,
Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 07.09.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE :

On the back of weak Eurpoean markets, Nifty Future too opened weak and went down to the day's low of 4932. Thereafter, in the second session, Nifty Future made a sharp up move - led by Reliance, M& M and Banking sector too. Nifty Future made a top at 5072 - the same level which we saw just last Friday. Interestingly, it has come close to the Andrew's Pitchfork shown on the EOD chart. The day closed at 5061.

For tomorrow, for Nifty Future to rise further, it has to stay above 5075. One can consider going long above 5075 with strict stop loss of 5040. On the higher side, it will find resistance at 5100 and strong resistance at 5165-5200. For this rally to sustain, I would expect Reliance to remain above 800. It would be advisable not to remain short once Nifty Future clears 5100 as it can go up to 5200 or may be up to 5300 to fill the gap.

The first sign of weakness will be when Nifty Future trades below 5040. One can consider going short below 5040 or below 5000 depending on your risk profile - with stop loss of 5075.

On the down side it will find support at 5000 - 4950 - 4920.

Considering the weakness in World markets, caution is advised at higher levels as one more down move is a distinct possiblility.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options remianed almost same at 1.14 as agianst 1.17 yesterday.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 06.09.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE:
Today's trading started with weak opening and Nifty Future made the day's low of 4954. In the 2nd session, Nifty Future made an up move which took Nifty Future to the day's high of 5023 and closed the day @ 5010. As Nifty Future made lower top /lower bottom today, I would not give much significance to the lower shadow on the EOD candle.The up move in the second session is surprising as European market continued its down move. At the time of writing this post, European market is down by nearly 5%.
I do not think that we can continue the up move - particularly when European markets are bleeding. We may get the effect tomorrow. Hence, short position may be taken with a stop loss of 5075. On the down side, it will find support at 4950 - 4920 and 4865. Break of 4865 may take Nifty Future to test the previous low of 4700. In view of the big fall in European markets, buying should be avoided till things settle down. One can consider buyinng put options of 4700 strike price which were trading @ Rs. 47/- at the close.
Put Call Ratio of Index Options increased to 1.17 today.
Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.
With Best Wishes,
Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 05.09.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE:
On the last Friday's trading Nifty Future ended the day with a doji on the EOD chart. On the 30 min chart you will observe that trend line (in magenta) has provided resistance. In hindsight we can say that Nifty Futurre had foreseen the fall of over 2% in US & European markets.
In view of the weakness in overseas markets, in all likelyhood we should have a weak opening.
Short positions may be considered with a stop loss of 5055/5075 depending on the way market opens. On the down side it will have support at 5000 - 4920 and strong support at 4865-4885 level. If Nifty Future stabilises at this level, one can consider buying (for a bounce up to 4920) with a strict stop loss of 4850. Weakness below 4850 can take Nifty Future down to test the previous low of 4700.
It is important that you read (and also see the charts) the Monthly & Weekly post which was updated yesterday.
Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.
With Best Wishes,
Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR WEEKENDED 02.09.2011

NIFTY FUTURE WEEKLY

After a sustained fall for the past 5 weeks, we had a strong up move - in a truncated week. The week saw a range of 270 points (High 5072 & Low 4802) and saw a firm close at 5034.

On the attached weekly chart, I have drawn Andrew's Pitchfork which indicates strong support at 4600 level alongwith a trend line (in magenta).

I have also marked a period of 42 weeks starting from High of 6336 and low of 2228 in 2008. The entire fall amounted to 4108 points. Interestingly, this time around we have a low of 4718 (indicating fall of just 1631 points) in the 41st week from the high of 8349 in the last Diwali week. The point I would like to highlight is that in almost the same time,the fall has been less than 50% than the last time. I would read this as a positive feature and consider buying at lower levels i.e. around 4700 +or- 100 points and change my view to further bearishness only below 4600 as shown on the chart. For the market to fall below this level will need some major reasons. I for one am quite content with the events that have emerged over the past one year - which incidentally happened to be 64th year of our independence! I just wonder what more is left to emerge for the market to break the level of 4600.

In nutshell, I would suggest :

a) Not to remain too bearish at lower levels viz. 4700 +or- 100 poitns.

b) Consider buying blue chips at every fall up to 4600 with a plan to invest and not just trade for a few points.

Do pray Lord Ganesha over the weekend that the above view turns out to be true!

!!Ganpati Bappa Morya!!

Keep Learning,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 02.09.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE:
!!Ganpati Bappa Morya!!
Last Tuesday's trading remained volatile with Nifty Future making the day's low at 4924 but ended the day strong with a close of 5003 after making the day's high of 5022. Tuesday's price movement remianed above the trend line shown on the EOD chart. Though this augurs well for the market, but I would not call this as final bottom as we have neither made higher bottom nor made a double bottom (on EOD chart) to confirm that the worst is over. Simply put, caution remains the watch word even if we go up to 5200.
For tomorrow one can consider going long with stop loss of 4920. On the higher side, Nifty Future will find resistance at 5050 and 5100. I doubt if Nifty Future can cross the resistance level of 5075-5100 in the first attempt. One can consider going short at higher level with stop loss of about 50 points. On the down side, break of 5920 will lead to weakness which can take market to 4865 and below that it can test the previous low.
Put Call Ratio of Index Options decreased to 1.03 as against 1.10 on the previous trading day,
Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.
With Best Wishes,
Ketan Asher.