NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE:
NIFTY FUTURE:
On the FNO settlement day, Nifty Future made a high of 5177 and closed at 5161 - just below the resistance level of 5165 referred in my last post. With FNO settlement now behind us, one important even is done with and the results season too is about to come to an end, in the next few days. The most important factor today is the optimism due to the rally not only here but also in World markets. As such, US markets are within striking distance of 52 weeks high - although with negative divergence on the EOD charts.
On the attached EOD chart, I have marked the swings with the no. of days and the index points. From this you will observe that the current up move is in progress for 24 days. Since Oct 2010, this has happened only once before and suggest the move could terminate antime now. As against this, the down moves have lasted much longer - not only in terms of time but also in terms of price.
Secondly, yesterday's candle is right on the Andrew's Pitchfork and considering the strength, there is every possibility that we will manage to cross this. This will take Nifty Future to the 200 DMA at 5225. With Bank Nifty Future too near its 200 DMA at 10001, there is every possibility that these levels may provide resistance. Notwithstanding the buoyant mood, I do not expect this level to be crossed without a correction. Hence, any weakness in Nifty Future may be used to go short with these levels as stop loss. Further up 5275 will provide resistance.
While it may be difficult to guess the reasons for a down move, typically they have a habit of appearing from nowhere, when one expects them the least.
For tomorrow, one can consider going short with stop loss of 5225. On the down side, it will have support at 5130 - 5100 and 5050. Fall will accelerate below 5050 as Nifty Future would be out of Andrew's Pitchfork on the 30 min chart - after moving inside it for quite some time now.
Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.
With Best Wishes,
Ketan Asher.
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