NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE:
After a gap up opening - by just 1.50 points, Nifty Future continued its upward mach as if every thing is fine. The underlying reason - hope that RBI will cut the interest rate after meeting with the bankers today. As I understand, the meeting is a customary feedback exercise and the discussion today will be an input for the policy announcement scheduled for 3rd week of this month. In my view, expecting the announcement immediately after the meeting with Bankers, is little far fetched. In any case, the party is across the World, as almost all the markets are up.
In today's trading, Nifty Future made low of 4780 and high of 4876. It closed at 4870 - near the high of the day. On the EOD chart you will observe that high for the day is near the trend line. For tomorrow, it is important that we cross the trend line to find another important fib level of 0.618 at 4907. Secondly, there has been increase in open interest of 50 Lakhs in the puts for the strike price of 4600-4800. To me, this indicates that Nifty Future will correct, before it continues the up move.
In view of the above, I would not advise fresh long positions for tomorrow. If Nifty Future opens high, one can consider going short with stop loss of 4925. In the event of weak opening, one can consider going short, when Nifty Future moves below 4835, with stop loss of 4880. On the down side, Nifty Future will find support at 4790 -4750 and 4725.
Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.
With Best Wishes,
Ketan Asher.
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