TURNING POINTS FOR 01.02.2012

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE:

In today's trading, Nifty Future opened firm, and after a steady rise through the day, made a new high of 5234 and closed at 5224 - near the high of the day. On the EOD chart, I have drawn a trend line which has provided resistance for the day. Considering the weakness in US markets, I do believe that today's up move was inspired more to show a strong close for the month and also to show a new high for the week.

For tomorrow, even if Nifty future opens strong, I would not advise long positions as there is channel resistance on weekly chart at 5270. Whereas on the Monthly chart, if it trades above 5235, it will be out of the channel. I don't think this could happen with US markets trading weak.

One can consider going short with stop loss of 5270. In case of weak opening, one can go short with stop loss of 5235. On the down side, it will find support at 5185 - 5150 - 5100. Fall will accelerate below 5150, as Nifty Future will be out of the Andrew's Pitchfork for the first time after trading inside it for a fairly long time.

As regards the Index Option chain data, the increase in open interest of Puts is much higher than the Calls.

Whatever may be your view, please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 31.01.2012

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE:

In today's trading, Nifty Future opened weak and gave a sharp correction - after 8 days of sustained up move. During the day, Nifty Future made a high of 5190 and low of 5101. It closed the day at 5112 - near the low of the day and hence weak. At the time of writing, US & European markets too are weak.

For tomorrow, we can expect a weak opening below 5100 - which will take Nifty Future out of the Andrew's Pitchfork for the first time after many days. On the downside, it will find support at 5060 and strong support at 4975. Furthermore, tomorrow's price action should be seen in context of it being the last day of the monthly candle and if the current up move is to sustain close too should be above 5100, as the upper shadow on the monthly candle will indicate the strength in the up move.

In case Nifty Future moves down to the low of 4975 it will find support of the trend line (shown on the EOD chart) as well as 0.382 correction level. At this level, one can consider buying Nifty Future for a bounce (or at least square up short positions - depending on your risk profile) with stop loss of 4950. On the way up, it will find resistance at 5100. As such, I would suggest to keep the bias negative while Nifty Future trades below 5100 and positive above it, as it could take Nifty Future up to 5165.

If you recall my weekly post, I had mentioned that we are in for an important week - well the beginning is just right - lets see how things unfold as we progress. In any case, don't forget to put the stop losses in place.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

PS: Those using the quarterly levels (given elsewhere on this blog) should know that during the previous quarter Nifty Future made a high of 5403 and hence it is obvious that "All is well" happens only when Nifty Future crosses above 5403 - which as of today remains a bit far.

TURNING POINTS FOR 30.01.2012

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE:

In Friday's trading, Nifty Future found resistance at the 200 DMA as mentioned in my post. The day's close has been near the high for the day and hence optimism remains positive, however weakness in DOW on Friday should remain a concern.

For tomorrow, fresh long positions are best avoided unless one wants to remain long in case Nifty Future goes up to 5270. For this, 5180 can be used as a traiing stop loss.

In case of weak opening (due to weakness in Dow), one can consider going short with stop loss of 5235. On the down side, it will find support at 5165 - 5130 and 5070. Fall will accelerate below 5070 as Nifty Future would be out of Andrew's Pitchfork after many days.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR WEEKENDED 27.01.2012

NIFTY FUTURE WEEKLY

Last week saw 4th consecutive week of higher top / higher bottom on the weekly chart and at the close Nifty Future has come close to the upper end of the channel inside which Nifty Future has traded for the past 60+ weeks. During the past week, Nifty Future made a range of 191 points (in 4 trading days) with high of 5225 & low of 5034. It closed the week at 5213 - near the high of the week.

While the close last week doesn't suggest any weakness, except the fact that 4 weeks up move together with Nifty Future trading near the upper end of the trading channel does call for caution. For breakout on the upside 5270 is important whereas any move below 5130 should be considered as first sign of weakness.

All in all, a very important week ahead of us.

Trade carefully and don't forget to put stop loss on your long positions.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 27.01.2012

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE:

On the FNO settlement day, Nifty Future made a high of 5177 and closed at 5161 - just below the resistance level of 5165 referred in my last post. With FNO settlement now behind us, one important even is done with and the results season too is about to come to an end, in the next few days. The most important factor today is the optimism due to the rally not only here but also in World markets. As such, US markets are within striking distance of 52 weeks high - although with negative divergence on the EOD charts.

On the attached EOD chart, I have marked the swings with the no. of days and the index points. From this you will observe that the current up move is in progress for 24 days. Since Oct 2010, this has happened only once before and suggest the move could terminate antime now. As against this, the down moves have lasted much longer - not only in terms of time but also in terms of price.

Secondly, yesterday's candle is right on the Andrew's Pitchfork and considering the strength, there is every possibility that we will manage to cross this. This will take Nifty Future to the 200 DMA at 5225. With Bank Nifty Future too near its 200 DMA at 10001, there is every possibility that these levels may provide resistance. Notwithstanding the buoyant mood, I do not expect this level to be crossed without a correction. Hence, any weakness in Nifty Future may be used to go short with these levels as stop loss. Further up 5275 will provide resistance.

While it may be difficult to guess the reasons for a down move, typically they have a habit of appearing from nowhere, when one expects them the least.

For tomorrow, one can consider going short with stop loss of 5225. On the down side, it will have support at 5130 - 5100 and 5050. Fall will accelerate below 5050 as Nifty Future would be out of Andrew's Pitchfork on the 30 min chart - after moving inside it for quite some time now.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 25.01.2012

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE:

RBI cutting the CRR led to sharp up move which took Nifty Future to the high of 5150 and also close to the previous top and the higher range of the Andrew's Pitchfork drawn on the EOD chart. This brings happy ending to one of the worries of the market. In today's trading, after making a high of 5150 - close to the previous month's high of 5135. Nifty Future closed at 5120 - leaving a small upper shadow.

Today's higher level is near the resistance level and hence best to avoid buying at higher levels. Instead, one can wait for a healthy correction before considering fresh buying.. For tomorrow, short position may be considered with stop loss at 5165. On the down side, Nifty Future will have support at 5100 - 5035. As such, Nifty Future will come out of the Andrew's Pitchfork, once it is below 5000 - after trading inside it for many days.

The mood could not have been better than what it is today. However, it would be better to wait for the market to correct before it manages to cross 5175 and thereafter 5300. It is only above 5300 (on weekly chart) that Nifty Future will be finally out of the channel and of course the time for celebration. Till then, be quick footed to change your view and hold the long position with stop loss of 5100. I am glad that one more time it has been proved that statistical method (like TP Grid) is far superior (and unbiased) to view based one (including mine).

Caution is advised at higher levels and in any case don't trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 24.01.2012

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE:

In today's trading, Nifty Future saw a total trading range of 28 points during the day - making it very difficult to trade. Bank Nifty showed more volatility but closed near the low of the day - may be as matter of caution ahead of RBI policy tomorrow.

Not much to say except wait for the policy and be prepared for a sharp move either way - depending on how the market perceives the policy announcement particularly ahead of FNO settlement. As regards the levels for tomorrow - Below 5000 downside and above 5075 upside possible. On the downside, 4980(previous gap) - 4900 and 4835. Considering that we are just a day short of FNO settlement, it is advisable to keep tight stop loss for short positions at 5075.

Index Option chain continues to show significant increase in open interest for puts not only for Jan series but also for Feb series.

As suggested in the weekend post, not trading ahead of such important events may end up more rewarding - as money saved is money earned. If trading every day is a compulsion, stick to buying puts and calls, as your loss is limited and profit unlimited i.e, if you are on the right side of the market.

Whatever you plan to do, please do not forget to use STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 23.01.2012

NIFTY FUTURE EOD / NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN

NIFTY FUTURE:

The past week ended as one of the best in recent times but the good feeling vanished when Reliance declared weak results. In the second session on Friday, Nifty Future did correct, but only to bounce back sharply in the last 30 mins. It closed the day at 5048 (may be as a mark of respect to the trend line on the weekly chart and the level of 5050 indicated by me).

For Monday, it is believed (by the experts in the media) that Reliance should see some correction and that would lead Nifty Future to open weak and gap at 4983 level may provide first support. As such, I would consider 4950 as a good support for Nifty Future. If this level is breached, we have strong support at 4825-4850 level. While I do believe this level to be a very strong support, I am not too sure whether one should take the risk of going long, just a day prior to RBI credit policy - particularly when so much hopes are already built into Bank Nifty.

I would consider it prudent to just wait on the sidelines till Wednesday, by which time we are done with the RBI policy as well as the FNO settlement and take a fresh look at the market after the Republic day. I would hasten to add that Dow too is at striking distance from its 52 week high and that too with negative divergence on the EOD Chart - which does not look very encouraging for sustainability of the current up move.

Have a nice weekend!

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR WEEKENDED 20.01.2012

NIFTY FUTURE WEEKLY

Third straight week with higher bottom and higher top. On Friday, Nifty Future achieved the target of 5050 which I had indicated sometime back - as a rare possibility. During the week Nifty future saw a range of 230 points (High 5065 & Low 4835) and closed the week at 5048 - just below the trend line shown on the attached chart. This rally was led by Reliance and Bank Stocks.

With Reliance results being weak, we can expect it to fall in the opening session on Monday and arrest this up move. More importantly, we need to wait for Tuesday, when RBI declares its Credit policy. While lot of hopes are already built into the Bank Nifty, any negative indication can be a big dampener and will puncture the momentum built in to the market - with due help from FIIs.

On the down side, 4825-4850 becomes an important support level. In case this level is breached, we are down to 4700.

All this heightened activity coming around the FNO settlement on Wednesday provides good opportunity for those trading in puts & calls and are on the right side of the market. I am sure those relying on TP GRID and previous quarter levels will get an unbiased view of the market.

Have a nice weekend!

Ketan Asher.

PS: For some more interesting facts, please read the monthly post too.

TURNING POINTS FOR 20.01.2012

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFYT FUTURE:

On the back of positive close in World markets, Nifty Future too opened with a gap. It traded in a narrow range(36 points) for the day and managed to do high of 5027 and low of 4991. It closed at 5022 - near the high of the day. I must admit that the up move persists - for one reason or the other, despite my giving bearish guidance for the past few days.

On the EOD chart you will find that today's high is just on the trend line and more importantly, on the weekly chart, we are near the strong resistance level of 5050, given in the weekly post. As I do not expect Nifty Future to cross 5050 level in the first attempt, I would advise caution at higher levels. Please avoid fresh long position at higher levels.

Short position may be considered below 4985 with stop loss of 5010. On the lower side, it will find support at 4920. Fall below 4920 may be sharp, as it would be out of Andrew's Pitchfork. Further down 4835 and 4780 will provide support.

As regards the option chain data, increase in open interest on the put side continues and outweighs the call side by a good margin.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 19.01.2012

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE:

In today's trading, Nifty Future opened weak in contrast to the strength shown at the closeyesterday. However, Nifty Future traded in a narrow range of 4983 (high) and 4933 (low). It closed the day at 4958. While weakness was apparent across the board except for Reliance which was up about 4% due to the buy back story. But for this, the fall in Nifty Future would have been more. In many key stocks, the fall has been in the range of 2 to 4%.

For tomorrow, I would continue to maintain a cautious view with a negative bias considering the way the front line stocks have fallen. Fresh short position may be considered below 4930 with stop loss of 4970. On the down side, it will find support at 4920 and below 4900 level, fall can accelerate as Nifty Future comes out of Andrew's Pitchfork. However, I would like to caution that there may be a possibility of Nifty Future trying a bounce as it will fill the gap left just two days back. I would not advise long position at this level as there is possibility that the bounce may not last - just as it happened in the second session today. Further down, 4830 will provide support meaningful support.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 18.01.2012

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE:
On the back of strong close in European markets despite rating downgrade of 9 European countries including France, Nifty Future opened with a gap (day's low of 4912) and went up steadily during the day to a high of 4988 and closed strong at 4977. Thus contrary to my expectation, Nifty Future continued to go up.
On the attached EOD chart, I have drawn a trend line which shows resistance at around 5020 and on the Weekly chart has a strong trend line resistance at 5050. In light of these two immediate levels of resistance, I would not like to change my view for just a few more points of up move. This coupled with huge (41 Lacs) increase in open interest for puts with strike price of 4900 & 5000 and similar situation in many stocks, I would remain cautious on the long side as correction may set in any time and give an unpleasant surprise.
In my view selling delivery based stocks at higher levels is a better idea. Tomorrow, one can consider going short below 4970 with stop loss of 5000. On the down side, it will find support at 4920. If Nifty Future moves below 4900, the fall can accelerate as it would be out of the Andrew's Pitchfork which provided support yesterday.
Though my view may be out of sync with the markets, I would advise caution at higher levels and fresh long positions are best avoided or atleast held with a tight stop loss.
Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.
With Best Wishes,
Ketan Asher.
PS: Puts with strike price of 4800/4900 look a tempting buy. Please do consider them even as a contrarian buy as we have 6 more days to FNO settlement and Newton's Law always comes into play, when market falls.

TURNING POINTS FOR 17.01.2012

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE:

On the back of weak Asian markets, Nifty Future too opened weak and made the day's low at 4835 in the early session. On the 30 min chart you will observe that Nifty Future took support on the mid point of the important range. Subsequently, on the back of announcement of lower inflation figures, Nifty Future moved up to make the day's high of 4900 and closed the day at 4891 - near the high of the day.

Considering a strong close, I am tempted to believe that the up move will continue tomorrow - but only if it manages to cross 4925. In the unlikely event of Nifty Future crossing 4925 it will find next resistance at 4960. In case Nifty Future returns from this level, I would consider that it has done double top - which would reconfirm my belief that we are likely to go down. I would wait for one more day to reconsider my view and therefore not advise fresh long positions even for tomorrow.

One can consider going short when Nifty Future moves below 4865 with 4925 as stop loss. On the down side, it will find support at 4835 and 4800. Break of 4800 (trend line on EOD chart) may lead to faster down move.

Considerable increase in open interest in Nifty and many key stocks also indicates the possibility that we are about to start the down move below 4800. As a contrarian trade, It would be worth considering buying 4700/4800 puts which provide good risk reward opportunity in case Nifty Future moves below 4800 in the remaining 7 days to the FNO settlement.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 16.01.2012

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE:

In Friday's trading, Nifty Future made a high of 4918 and in the second session made the day's low of 4844 and closed the day at 4878. The day's candle is a doji - suggesting indecision. It is noteworthy that Nifty Future could not cross the resistance of 4925 referred by me for the whole of last week.

For tomorrow, I do not advise any fresh long position as markets could come down with the beginning of negative news in the form of downgrading the credit rating of France and other EU nations by S&P. Secondly, Bank Nifty Future too seems to have exhausted its run and may find it difficult to cross the trend line resistance at 9150. In the unlikely event of Nifty Future crossing 4925, next resistance is at 4960 and 5050.

One can consider going short with stop loss of 4925. On the down side, it will find support at 4800 - 4755 and 4720. Once Nifty Future breaks 4800 on the down side, it would have broken the trend line and hence I would not advise buying on decline unless we see Nifty Future taking support at lower levels. As mentioned in the Weekly post, one can consider buying small quantity of 4700/4800 puts - though time to expiry is just 8 trading sessions. It would be better to sell the stocks on delivery basis, so that the same can be bought back on declines.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR WEEKENDED 13.01.2012

NIFTY FUTURE WEEKLY

The past week saw Nifty Future closing near the high of the week at 4876 giving hopes that "All is Well". During the week, Nifty Future managed a high of 4918 and low of 4705 (total range 213 points).

While the weekly close no doubt looks good - that too after Infosys lost over 8%, we must factor in that 4925 level has provided Strong resistance as of last week. With the commencement of negative news flow in the form of S&P downgrading France, it may be difficult for our markets too, to continue with up side momentum.

Nifty Future moving down below 4800 should be considered as the 1st indication that down move has begun. I would not advise any long position for the next week. Instead - as a contrarian trade, one can consider buying 4700/4800 puts available at Rs. 22/46 depending on your risk profile. Buy only that much quantity which you can hold till the end of the FNO .

Those readers who are going through the Option chain data provided by NSE, will find that in many stocks there has been considerable increase in open interest on the put side. However, as there are only 8 trading sessions left before FNO settlement, please take only small quantity as time value continues to be against the buyer of the option.

On the attached weekly chart you will find that 4289 (say 4300) level should provide good support to Nifty Future in the weeks to come - when Nifty Future breaks the previous low of 4538.

Please do not forget to protect your long positions at the first sign of weakness.

Wishing you all a Happy Makar Sankranti!

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 13.01.2012

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE:

After a weak opening, Nifty Future managed to go high (4888) but remained just 1 point short of yesterday's high. This triggered a fall which took Nifty Future down to the day's low of 4818. Today's low remained much above yesterday's low and in the second session, Nifty Future made another attempt to go up and closed the day at 4652. The day's candle is a doji - indicating indecision. This higher close was due to the sharp up move in the last few minutes of trading which indicates good opening for tomorrow - of course subject to no major adverse reaction in the US/European markets.

Considering that Nifty Future has been range bound for the past two days, with upward bias, I would tend to believe that Nifty Future can continue the up move tomorrow. I would suggest buying Nifty Future above 4891 with stop loss of 4865. While recommending a buy tomorrow, i would like to add a caveat that crossing of 4925 remains important and hence long position should be considered with strict stop loss. In case Nifty Future manages to move above 4925, it will find resistance at 4960 - 5000 and finally at 5050.

Short position may be considered in case Nifty Future shows weakness at the above resistance levels with next level indicated above as stop loss.

Weakness will accelerate only below 4800.

The way Infosys was hammered (down 8%) after a weak guidance, should be seen as precursor of things ahead (Infosys has good support at 2575). It would be better to use any up side to sell stocks on delivery basis. Surprisingly, Bank Nifty Future continues to go up even though there has been no indication yet of CRR cut. In nut shell, while enjoy whatever up side is left, please make sure that you don't get stuck at higher levels.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 12.01.2012

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE:

In today's trading, Nifty Future opened weak and to start with made a low of 4805. Thereafter, Nifty Future made a new high of 4889 - though the day's trading remained range bound and volatile. It closed the day at 4872. As mentioned yesterday, level of 4925 will provide strong resistance.

In view of quarterly results to be declared by Infosys tomorrow, much will depend on the outcome of the results. It would be better to avoid fresh long positions at higher levels. Short positions may be considered with stop loss of 4925. On the down side, it will find support at 4840 - 4800 and 4740. Fall below 4800 will be fast and take Nifty Future to 4740 - which would be a good level to initiate fresh long position with stop loss of 4715. Weak results/guidance from Infosys can make this a possibility as even the reduction in much awaited CRR cut seems to be eluding and these two events can help precipitate the market down to the level of 4740.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 11.01.2012

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE:

After a gap up opening - by just 1.50 points, Nifty Future continued its upward mach as if every thing is fine. The underlying reason - hope that RBI will cut the interest rate after meeting with the bankers today. As I understand, the meeting is a customary feedback exercise and the discussion today will be an input for the policy announcement scheduled for 3rd week of this month. In my view, expecting the announcement immediately after the meeting with Bankers, is little far fetched. In any case, the party is across the World, as almost all the markets are up.

In today's trading, Nifty Future made low of 4780 and high of 4876. It closed at 4870 - near the high of the day. On the EOD chart you will observe that high for the day is near the trend line. For tomorrow, it is important that we cross the trend line to find another important fib level of 0.618 at 4907. Secondly, there has been increase in open interest of 50 Lakhs in the puts for the strike price of 4600-4800. To me, this indicates that Nifty Future will correct, before it continues the up move.

In view of the above, I would not advise fresh long positions for tomorrow. If Nifty Future opens high, one can consider going short with stop loss of 4925. In the event of weak opening, one can consider going short, when Nifty Future moves below 4835, with stop loss of 4880. On the down side, Nifty Future will find support at 4790 -4750 and 4725.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 10.01.2012

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE:

After a weak opening, Nifty Future went down to make day's low of 4705 and thereafter saw a bounce and made the day's high of 4778 and closed the day at 4752. I will not like to miss theis opportunity to draw your attention to the fact that today's low of 4705 is very close to the monthly/annual mid point of 4707 given in the TP Grid and gave a good trade to those who are following this method. The long lower shadow on the EOD chart does suggest positive bias for tomorrow.

As a matter of abundant caution, I would suggest going long above today's high of 4778 with stop loss of 4740. In the unlikely event of Nifty Future opening weak, one can consider going short at lower levels, with stop loss of 4685. On the higher side, it will find resistance at 4835 and 4920.

Considering my positive bias, I would not advise going short unless Nifty Future falls below 4685. On the down side, it will find support at 4635.
With result season starting with Infosys on 12th, I do remain optimistic to see the levels of 4920 and 5050, over the next few days.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 09.01.2012

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE:

In Friday's trading, Nifty Future took support (low of 4692) on the Andrew's Pitchfork line and 50% level of the trading range as shown on the 30 min chart. In the second session, it saw a sharp up move to make the day's high of 4821 but came down sharply to close the day at 4772.

Though in a short trading session today (Saturday) Nifty Future did close on the lower side. I would not give much credence to the same as it was with low volumes and lower participation.

For Monday, I would advise long position with stop loss of 4720 or better still - 4685. On the higher side, it will find resistance at 4835 - 4880 and 4920.

With Infosys results scheduled to be announced on 12th, I do not expect Nifty Future to go below 4685 and hence do not advise short position for now. Unless the level of 4685 is broken, I expect Nifty Future to remain buoyant - at least till Infosys results are announced.

Please do nor trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR WEEKENDED 06.01.2012

NIFTY FUTURE WEEKLY
Due to a sharp rise on Friday - in the week gone by, we saw a positive closing (4772) with a range of 229 points (High 4821 & Low 4592). For the third week now, we remain sideways, in about 280 point range.

To see further up side, we need to cross 4835 in the coming week or else we will see a sharp move down. With starting of results season with Infosys scheduled for 12th, I expect Nifty Future to move up at least up to 4880 and 4920. In the best case scenario, it can even go up to 5050 level where it will find strong resistance due to the Trend Line (shown in Red).

In the coming week, a lot depends on the Infosys results and a surprise rate cut by RBI as an icing on the cake!

Even if the above scenario unfolds, I would advise caution at higher levels, as Trend Line resistance at 5050 referred above, may be a hard nut to crack as we have already made a lower bottom after a failed attempt on the earlier occasion - just a few weeks back.

Have a nice weekend!

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 06.01.2012

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE:

After not so strong opening, Nifty Future made an attempt to move up but could not go beyond 4792. In the second session it gave up all the gains and made the day's low of 4740. Overall a narrow range and a boring day. It is important to note that Nifty Future is not able to cross 4800 leave alone the key resistance of 4835.

At the time of writing this post, Europe and US markets are trading weak. This may influence our markets too and we can trade below 4735 tomorrow. At this level one can consider going short with stop loss of 4770. On the down side, Nifty Future will find support at 4685 and strong support at 4635. If the level of 4635 is achieved, it will also fill the gap left earlier. We can expect a bounce from this level and hence one can consider going long with stop loss of 4600. Do remember that tomorrow being Friday it is important to note at what level Nifty Future manages to close.

Strength will now emerge only when Nifty Future crosses 4810.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POIINTS FOR 05.01.2012

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN/ NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE:

In a volatile trading yesterday, Nifty Future made a new high (4799) over the previous day, but gave up all the gains. Interestingly, in a short span of 15-20 mins Nifty Future made the day's High & Low (4738). Yesterday's price action has to be taken as a pause after a sharp rise the day before.

For today, one can consider going short below 4735 with stop loss of 4770. On the down side, it will find support at 4700 - 4685 and 4635.

Fresh long position may be considered above 4810 with stop loss of 4770. Alternatively, one can even consider going long in the opening session, with stop loss of 4735. On the higher side, it will find resistance at 4840 - 4920.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 04.01.2012

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE:

As expected, Nifty Future opened with gap and continued up move throughout the day. During the day, Nifty Future made high of 4794 and low of 4680. It closed the day strong at 4783.

With World markets too trading strong, we can expect strong opening tomorrow. However, we are now close to key resistance level at 4835 and it needs to be seen whether we cross this level straight away or see a correction to fill the gap (@ 4655) left in the opening session today.

Considering the substantial (35.14 Lacs) increase in open interest for puts with strike price of 4600 to 4800, I would tend to believe that we may see a correction to lower levels before we continue the up move to fill the gap at 4921 (spot Nifty).

In the event Nifty Future shows weakness around 4835, one can consider going short with stop loss of 4865. On the down side, it will find support at 4720 - 4685 and 4645. Fresh buying may be considered at lower levels at 4645. Alternately, one can consider buying 4600 puts when Nifty Future opens strong tomorrow.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 03.01.2012

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE:

In the initial phase of today's trading, Nifty Future maintained downward bias and went down to make the day's low of 4592 and bounced back after taking support on the median line of the Andrew's Pitchfork on 30 min chart. At the day's end, Nifty future closed the day at 4648 with EOD candle having a long lower shadow - which augurs well for tomorrow.

For tomorrow, one can consider going long with stop loss of 4620. On the higher side, Nifty Future will find resistance at 4690 - 4725 and 4765. Fresh short position may be considered below 4620 with stop loss of 4660. On the down side, it will find support at 4590 and 4540.

Considering the up move in European markets at the time of writing, we too can expect Nifty Future testing the levels of 4725.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR WEEKENDED 30.12.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD/ NIFTY FUTURE WEEKLY

The good part of last week's trading was that Nifty Future closed with higher top / higher bottom. May be due to holiday considerations, the last day saw very low volumes and closed near the low of the week. During the week, Nifty Future saw a range of 194 points (High 4804 & Low 4614) and closed the week at 4634.

As the close has been week, I would advise going short only if Nifty Future trades below 4600 with strict stop loss of 4640. On the down side, it will find support at 4560. As such major down side should now be considered only when Nifty Future trades below previous quarter's low of 4538 and hence one needs to be very careful around this level and be quick footed to change the view. Please note that I have updated previous quarters High & low of FNO items, elsewhere on the blog.

Major up side can be expected only when Nifty Future trades above 4690.

Have a nice weekend!

Ketan Asher.

PS: There will be no seperate post for Monday as I have covered my view for Monday in the above post. Please don't miss out the post given below.

HAPPY NEW YEAR

WISHING ALL THE READERS A VERY HAPPY & PROSPEROUS 2012

The year 2011 ended on a very weak note amidst lot of gloom & doom.

I am giving below an interesting historical data that should help all of us to start the New Year on a positive note.

As many of you may be aware 2012 is a leap year. In the previous leap years given below, BSE Sensex has made a new high over the previous year.

LEAP YEAR / PREV. YR / SENSEX HIGH / LEAP YEAR HIGH

1992 / 1991 / 1955 / 4546

1996 / 1995 / 3943 / 4131

2000 / 1999 / 5151 / 6151

2004 / 2003 / 5921 / 6617

2008 / 2007 /20498 /21207

2012 / 2011 /20665 /?????

As things stand today, it is difficult to believe that we could see a new high over 2011, but data given above does give me hope that things could change in the coming months.

So, all is not lost and prepare to buy at lower levels - around 4200-4400.

Keep Smiling & Best of Luck for 2012.

Ketan Asher.