TURNING POINTS FOR 21.11.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE:

The fall continued on last Friday and Nifty Future filled up the gap except for leaving it by just one point. Thus technically the gap remains unfilled and possibility of downside, to fill this gap anytime in future remains open. The big positive was that Nifty Future closed near the high of the day, thus showing a long lower shadow on the EOD chart.

For tomorrow, fresh long position may be taken only above 4935 with stop loss of 4900. On the higher side, it will find resistance at 5000 - 5050 and 5100. With many stocks and Bank Nifty crossing below quarterly low, the possibility of a strong up move remain very bleak, except the technical position ahead of the FNO settlement remains only hope for a strong up move.

Short position may be considered below 4900 with stop loss of 4935. As mentioned earlier, the possibility of Nifty Future going down to fill the gap at 4844 and thus make a double bottom remains open. On the down side 4830 remains a good support area.
The Index Option data shows considerable increase in open interest on the call side for the past couple of days but the up move is eluding. The total open interest position on the call side up to 5200 strike price remains high. As against this, there has been unwinding of Puts with strike price of 4900-5200 and addition of open interest in the strike price of 4600 and 4700. This data does suggest Nifty Future going up to 5000-5050.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.