TURNING POINTS FOR 01.12.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE:

After a weak opening Nifty Future made the day's low of 4756 and made a sharp up move to make a high of 4862. Thereafter in a volatile move, Nifty Future went down sharply and took support on the trend line as shown on 30 min chart, only to bounce back and close the day at 4832.

With US markets rocking at over 3%, it is natural to expect a strong opening tomorrow. As usual, I do not advise buying at gap open. If the momentum is maintained, we can expect Nifty Future to go up to 4930. I would recommend a contrarian strategy to buy 4700 puts, when Nifty Future trades at higher levels. Moreover, it would be better to sell on delivery basis as Nifty Future can still come down as many stocks remain weak. It would definitely not be prudent to go long at higher levels.

As regards Index Option data, there has been increase in open interest of 18.15 Lacs for the 4700 puts. As compared to this, there has been no significant increase on the call side. This bias towards puts, indicates to me that all is not well and there is every possibility that Nifty Future can come down any time after facing resistance at 4930.

Please do not get carried away by the rise in US markets and in any case do not forget to use STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 30.11.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE :

In today's session, Nifty Future opened weak but managed to cross yesterday's high to make the days' high of 4885 but in the second session went down to make the day's low of 4788 and closed the day at 4817. While the lower shadow to the day's candle is a positive signal, but the more important thing is that we have a higher top/higher bottom for the day. Today's fall can be attributed as a pause after a big up move yesterday.

For tomorrow, one can consider going long with stop loss of 4760 (see 30 min chart) where it will find trend line support as well as 50% level of the swing. On the higher side, it will find resistance at 4885 and major resistance at 4930.

Short position may be considered only below 4760 with stop loss of 4800.

Tomorrow is the last day for the current month and hence important for the monthly candle. Like the previous months, this month's candle has remained inside the channel but longer lower shadow would indicate strength for the market.

As regards the Index Option data, the call side has seen increase in open interest by 21.08 Lacs for the strike price ranging from 4800 - 5000. On the put side, the increase in open interest by 6.14 Lacs for the strike price ranging from 4500-4700 is much lower indicating bias towards the long side.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURRNING POINTS FOR 29.11.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE :

On the back of a strong up move in Asian markets, Nifty Future opened strong in complete contrast to a weak close on last Friday. After a strong opening, Nifty Future maintained a slow but steady rise throughout the day to make the day's high of 4875 and low of 4750. It closed firm at 4870 - near the high of the day. Interesting point to note is that it did not break previous weeks' high of 4879 by just 4 points.

At the time of writing this post US / Europe markets are up by over 3% hence we can expect a strong opening session tomorrow and Nifty Future heading for the next important resistance at 4930 - that is if it clears previous week's high of 4879.

I would not advise long positions for tomorrow. Instead, one can consider selling calls of 5000 Strike Price or buy 4700/4800 puts when market is near the resistance level of 4930.

On the down side, Nifty Future will find support at 4850 and 4780. Break below 4780 may indicate further weakness.

As regards Index Option data, on the Call side - there has been increase in open interest of 14.49 Lacs for the strike price ranging from 4900 to 5200. As against this, on the put side the open interest has increased significantly to 31.87 for the strike price ranging from 4800 to 4500. This too suggests that we may see some pull back tomorrow, before Nifty Future can continue the up move - that is if it does not break 4780.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 28.11.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE:

First day of the new settlement opened firm but amidst lot of volatility did not have the conviction to break previous day's high and finally broke down in the second session to close the day at 4711. The fact that it closed below the previous quarters' low (4718) is a cause of worry. The day's top at 4879 met with the resistance at the trend line (in Blue) shown on the EOD chart. The comforting fact is that on the 30 min chart, it has come out of the falling channel and as of Friday it has made higher top/ higher bottom on the 30 min chart.

In view of the above, for tomorrow - I would consider bias to be

a) positive above 4720 with stop loss of 4680. On the higher side, it will find resistance at 4780 and major resistance at 4850.

b) Negative below 4680 with stop loss of 4730. On the down side, it will find support at 4630 & 4600. However, below 4680 it can go down much deeper to 4400 over the coming days.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR WEEKENDED 25.11.2011

NIFTY FUTURE WEEKLY

Weakness persisted during the week and Nifty Future made lower top / lower bottom after making a new 52 week low of 4632 and closed @ 4711 - leaving a small lower shadow. It made a range of 247 (High 4879 & Low 4632).

For now 4718 - previous quarter's low becomes important as we can consider the market for the up side when above this level and for down side when below it. As mentioned in one of my post last week, the fact that Nifty Future has broken the 4700 level once, it can do it once again and this time more convincingly.

Selling on higher levels viz. 4850 - 4920 and 5000 is advisable. On the lower side caution is advised when Nifty Trades below 4680 as the possibility of going further down increases.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

NEW UPDATE UNDER "PAGES"

Alongside under the heading "Pages" you will find detailed write up on
"Previous Quarter's High/Low Prices" alongwith a link to the file giving
details of Previous Quarters' High & Low Prices for all FNO Stocks.
Trust this helps the reader to know in advance the price levels for all the
FNO stocls. Twitter updates will continue more as an Alert - as and when
I notice the relevant price.
With Best Wishes,
Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 25.11.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE:

And finally a sharp up move after many days. The first indication for the up move came in when Nifty Future made the day's low of 4633 - one point above yesterday's low. In the second session, Nifty Future maintained upward bias but the real spurt came in the last one hour of trading when Nifty Future made the day's high of 4768 and closed at 4755. The positive feature is that once again we have a long lower shadow after a double bottom and better still is the fact that we have closed above the previous quarter low of 4718. Secondly, as shown on the 30 min chart, last one hour's sharp up move has taken the Nifty Future above the channel formation. The negative point to be noted is that despite the sharp up move we did not manage to make a higher top (in NOV series) - although we did manage higher bottom - just by 1 point.

In today's trading, Dec 2011 series closed at 4777 after making a high of 4799. This does indicate that we should have a strong opening - helped a little by announcement for allowing FDI in Retail. One can consider going long with stop loss of 4720. Going long on gap open is best avoided. On the higher side, it will find resistance at 4875. Once again the Friday effect will also come to play as Weekly chart will look good only if we close any where above 4875.

As regards the Index Option chain, there has been considerable increase in open interest on the Call side for the strike price ranging from 4700 to 5100. As against this, there has been increase (10.06 Lacs) in open interest for the strike price of 4700. This does suggest, that there could be some correction before we continue the up move.

I would like to caution here that the fact that we have broken previous quarter's low of 4718 should be considered as a precursor to more down side. This up move should be considered just a relief rally, which could take Nifty Future to 5050 with hurdles on the way.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 24.11.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE:

After a weak opening and touching the day's high of 4775, Nifty Future broke down below quarterly low of 4716, it went down sharply to the day's low of 4632 and bounced back to close the day at 4704. It was one more day of lower top / lower bottom with only silver lining in the form of a long lower shadow. The fact that we have broken quarterly low confirms that over the next few days/weeks, we can go further down - even after a small bounce.

In today's trading, Nifty Future did bounce back - though with not much conviction. Considering the persisting weakness in Europe/US markets at the time of writing this post, we may see one more down move tomorrow, to test today's low. I would suggest buying at lower levels with stop loss of 4600. On the higher side, it will face resistance at 4720 - 4770. Strength will return only above 4770.

Short positions may be avoided at lower levels.

With FNO settlement scheduled for tomorrow and the weak sentiment may leas to high volatility, hence please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 23.11.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE :
Contrary to expectations, Nifty Future did not open weak - as such, it did not even break yesterday's low and went up to the high of 4860. However, in the last hour it gave up most of the gains to close the day at 4805 - near to yesterday's close and with long upper shadow, suggesting weakness.
For tomorrow, I would advise going short below 4800 with stop loss of 4840. On the lower side, 4730 and 4680 will provide support. Good support comes in at around 4600. With just a day left for FNO settlement we should see higher volatility but break below 4700 will accelerate weakness.
It is best to avoid fresh long position till this weekend - by which time we would be done with FNO settlement and also get the levels at which market settles down.
Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.
With Best Wishes,
Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 22.11.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE:

After a weak opening, Nifty Future continued its downward march and got ready to break previous low of 4718 - possibly tomorrow. Today is the straight 8th day of downward move. During the day, Nifty Future made high of 4879 and low 4769. It closed the day at 4783 near the low of the day.

While everything looks gloomy and once we go below 4718, we may see all hell break loose and rightly so as Nifty Future will break quarterly low. Considering that World markets are trading lower by over 2% at the time of writing this post - in all probability we should open with a downside gap. Moreover, issues like margin calls and payment problems will only add to the chaos. In the event of Nifty Future opening with a downside gap, I would not advise fresh sell. Please remeber that we have already fallen today by about 2% and have been falling for the past few days.

While I do expect Nifty Future to find support around 4600, it would not be prudent on my part to suggest buying as it would be like catching a falling knife. However, I would suggest that those who have sold for delivery at higher levels will do well to buy those shares back at lower levels. Those holding puts too will do well to encash the same and also short position should be covered at this level. Although close below makes the room to go down to test my much awaited level of 4400, I do not think that it would be such a fast fall - particularly with FNO settlement around the corner.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 21.11.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE:

The fall continued on last Friday and Nifty Future filled up the gap except for leaving it by just one point. Thus technically the gap remains unfilled and possibility of downside, to fill this gap anytime in future remains open. The big positive was that Nifty Future closed near the high of the day, thus showing a long lower shadow on the EOD chart.

For tomorrow, fresh long position may be taken only above 4935 with stop loss of 4900. On the higher side, it will find resistance at 5000 - 5050 and 5100. With many stocks and Bank Nifty crossing below quarterly low, the possibility of a strong up move remain very bleak, except the technical position ahead of the FNO settlement remains only hope for a strong up move.

Short position may be considered below 4900 with stop loss of 4935. As mentioned earlier, the possibility of Nifty Future going down to fill the gap at 4844 and thus make a double bottom remains open. On the down side 4830 remains a good support area.
The Index Option data shows considerable increase in open interest on the call side for the past couple of days but the up move is eluding. The total open interest position on the call side up to 5200 strike price remains high. As against this, there has been unwinding of Puts with strike price of 4900-5200 and addition of open interest in the strike price of 4600 and 4700. This data does suggest Nifty Future going up to 5000-5050.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR WEEKENDED 18.11.2011

NIFTY FUTURE:

Last week's sharp fall once again brings us to the lower end of the trading range. The week saw a range of 404 points (High 5249 & Low 4845). The candle continues to remain within the channel for many weeks now. Once again it has made a lower top / lower bottom.

The only positive was that due to the bounce on Friday, we have a small lower shadow though not very convincing of any buying at lower levels.

While 4830 offers support next week, on the higher side 5050 and 5100 will offer strong resistance.

Coming weeks' FNO Settlement does provide the possibility of an up move, the fact remains that we are now far off from the upper end of the channel which needs to be crossed at 5400 to hope for a rally. What looked like a possibility last week, now becomes a distant dream to hope that the channel will be crossed in a hurry.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 18.11.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE:

In yesterday's trading Nifty Future continued with the formation of lower lower bottom for the 7th day in a row. In the second half of the session, once Nifty Future broke 5000 level, it saw big selling and took Nifty Future down to the day's low of 4915. The close being near the low of the day should be considered weak.

We may see a weak opening today, but expect to see a good bounce, as Nifty Future has covered the full distance (4726 to 5193 = 467 points) on the downside too when calculated from 5403 (5403-467=4936). The time taken to cover this distance on both sides is also similar - 15 days for up move and 13 days for the down move.

Considering that the Word markets too are weak, we must factor the possibility of filling the gap at 4844. In case of a weak opening, one can consider going long once this gap is filled. Alternatively, if yesterday's low is not broken, one can consider going long with stop loss of 4900. On the way up, it will face resistance at 5050 - 5082 and 5130.

If the week has to close near 4900 levels, we have a big candle which will be too bearish for the next week. I don't expect this to happen and considering the strong build up on the call side - just wonder if we are in for a surprise rally due to FNO settlement. Just a wishful thinking at best.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 17.11.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE:

Contrary to my expectations, Nifty Future opened weak and continued its downward movement to make the day's low of 4998 and high of 5080. In volatile movement, Nifty Future closed near the high of the day, but due to averaging method of reporting - the close is at 5045. On the 30 min chart you will observe that the last candle has closed just at the median line of Andrew' Pitchfork. The positive for today's movement is the long lower shadow.

For tomorrow, one can consider going long above 5080, with stop loss of 5050. On the higher side, it will find resistance at 5125 - 5175 and 5200. Strength and conviction, will return only if Nifty Future trades above 5250. Though everything suddenly looks bleak as many of the stocks see a sharp down move and below the previous quarter's low, I would see a small possibility of up move due to FNO settlement scheduled next week. The stocks that look promising to take lead in this up move could be SBI (above 1820) and Reliance (above 905).

Weakness could accelerate below 5000 but considering my positive bias at least till we are done with the FNO settlement, I would not advise going short at lower levels.

Index Options data reveals interesting data as there has been unwinding of Puts in a big way. Whereas there has been considerable increase in Open Interest on the call side - totalling to 41.75 lacs for the strike price ranging from 4900 t0 5400 with maximum of 19 Lacs for the 5000 Strike price.

Considering the volatilty, it would be better to trade in options.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TWITTER UPDATES from 17.11.2011

I had opened a twitter account some time back, with profound hope of using technology for the benefit of traders/investors. However, I had not been posting messages, as I was waiting for the right idea (which is not opinionated). It seems the time has come now.
Before I describe what the updates will be, I must thank all those people who have
joined my twitter account (even when it was silent). I hope that their patience will payoff now.
As we all know, quarterly candle is the second highest level of timeframe, next only to the annual candle. Thus any price move above or below previous quarters' high and low price, is most significant for further movement of the price. Effective tomorrow, I will flash twitter message as and when a stock/Nifty/Bank Nifty Future hits the previous quarter’s High or Low price. The interpretation of this information will be as follows:
For High Price:
1. When price breaks the previous quarters’ high from below, it is a sign of strength.
2. When price breaks the previous quarters’ high from above, it is a sign of weakness.
For Low Price:
1. When price breaks the previous quarters’ low from above, it a sign of weakness.
2. When price breaks the previous quarters’ low from below, it is a sign of strength.
I will start this service with about 20 Stocks from Nifty Future including Nifty/Bank Nifty Future.
For my own good, I give below a Disclaimer and will be considered as read, for all those
who read my twitter posts.
Disclaimer:
1. This service is free and is for educational purpose only and should not be construed as buy or sell advice.
2. If you choose to trade on the basis of my twitter posts, please bear in mind that Equity and its Derivative products are full of financial risks. Turning Points or the undersigned will not be held responsible for the same.
3. Twitter post based on the above idea will be made on the best effort basis.
If you wish to benefit from this service – come on board by signing into my twitter account myturningpoints at Twitter.com. I plan to start the service from 17.11.2011 (Thursday).
Keep Learning.
Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 16.11.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE:

In today's trading , Nifty Future opened weak and made a failed attempt to go up. It manged to make a high of 5177 and remained sideways for better part of the day. In the second half it finally went under 5140 sharply, to make the day's low of 5064. Those academically inclined, will find it interesting to see the 30 min chart, where Nifty Future found resistance at the median line of the Andrew's Pitchfork. Another interesting coincidence is that today's low (5064) is the mid point of current quarter (high 5403 & low 4726). Considering the importance I give to the mid points (TP GRID), this level should provide a support at least once.

In view of the above, for tomorrow, I would suggest buying Nifty Future with stop loss of 5060. On the higher side, it will find resistance at 5140 and gain strength only above 5180 (today's high). It will not be advisable to remain short above 5180.

In the unlikely event of Nifty Future going below 5064, it will find support at 4980. Weakness will accelerate below this level to fill the gap at 4850. Although I do not expect this to happen in the immediate future.

While Nifty Future crashed in the last one and a half hour, there has been increase of 5100 Call option to the tune of 22.50 Lacs besides increase of 16.49 L in case of Strike price ranging from 5200-5400. As against this, on the put side the total increase of open interest is to the extent of 23.47 L for the strike price of 4800 - 5000. Considering the significant support of 5064 as stated above and increase of open interest on the call side, I expect the market to go up.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 15.11.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE:

As expected, Nifty Future did open strong and met with resistance at 5250 when it made the high of 5249. Thereafter, it remained in a narrow range with downward bias, but in the later part of the day fell down to the day's low of 5148 - just few points above the level, I had indicated as stop loss for long position. Needless to say the close has been weak. The only positive to indicate that the up move is intact is to say that we have not yet broken the low of 5140 and better still we are above the low of 5087 - weekly low made when Nifty broke out of the range. We are in the 3rd week now when we are trading inside the range of 5402 and 5087. The day finally closed at 5156.

For tomorrow, I would recommend going long either with stop loss of 5080 or safer still when Nifty Future trades above 5200. On the higher side it will find resistance at 5250 - 5325 and 5400. I would not advise going short at lower levels.

Considering my positive bias, I would continue to suggest buying 5300 call option for DEC series -even if it means as a contrarian buy.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

Technical Analysis and W. D. Gann ideas workshop at Mumbai

I will be conducting a 2 day Workshop on Technical Analysis and W D Gann ideas
on 19th & 20th Nov. 2011.
For details write to turningpoints.in@gmail.com
Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 14.11.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE:
And finally Nifty Future filled the gap at 5192 on Friday and closed the week at 5194 after making an intraday low of 5161 and high of 5216. As expected, the impact of downfall in World markets did get diluted because of market holiday for us on Thursday. The candle for the day is a doji with day's down side gap remianing unfilled.
The important part of last weeks' fall, post the breakout from 5200 levels is that it has filled the gap Now its important to know whether it will resume the up move or once again continue the down move? The answer to this lies in whether history will repeat itself?
On the attached EOD chart, I have shown a rectangle (in Blue) when Nifty Future consolidated for 38 days and achieved the target in 8 days after the break out. This time around (shown in Yellow) we had consolidation within the range of 4700 & 5200 for 53 days and breoke out of this range with a gap - which incidentally got filled up on Friday. Looking at the World markets particularly Dow, which has closed near the top of the week on Friday which indicates strength - despite all the well known negatives which I need not get into. The basic tenets of Charting and particularly W D Gann ideas is that history repeats itself. I would only say that the setup is ready for Nifty Future to achieve the target of 5700 (subject to hurdles on its way). Will the martket oblige?
For this I would consider crossing of following levels viz. 5250 - 5325 - 5400 as important. As discussed in Weekly and Monthly chart, Nifty Future will come out of the down sloping channel at 5420 and 5450 respectively. This will enhance the possiblity of meeting this target, as it will encourage more particpants to believe in this rally and bring wider participation/short cutting which can take us to the target of 5700 or there abouts in a short time frame. While all this may sound music to all those who have a bullish view on the market, I would hasten to add that when you see the previous pattern don't miss out to see the fact that even after a sharp up move, Nifty Future did go down eventually - may be to catch up with the fundamentals.
As this remains a conjecture, with the assumption that history will repeat this time too, one must not throw caution to winds when taking positions as the ground realities can not be more worse than what they are. However to benefit from any possible up move, I would consider buying a small quantity of 5300 Call Option of Dec series which is available at around Rs.30-35.
As regards the short position, I would not consider the same unless Nifty Future breaks 5140.
Considering the up move in US markets, we can expect a strong opening for Monday. This would make a typical Morning Star pattern on the chart if it opens with an upside gap.
To end this unusally lengthy post, I would breifly mention about the Index option data which shows increase of open interest on the Call side, by 19.32 Lacs for strike price of 5100 & 5200 and 5.05 Lacs for stike price 5400 & 5500. As against this, on the put side the increase in open interest is of 11.86 lacs for stike price of 4700 & 4800 (too far from the current market price and hence not of much significance) and just 5.12 lacs for the strike price of 5100. This too suggests the bias to be in favour of the long positions.
Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.
With Best Wishes,
Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR WEEKENDED 11.11.2011

NIFTY FUTURE WEEKLY

Past week having just 3 trading days ended with lower top / lower bottom. Considering the few trading days the range for the week too was small at 173 points (High 5334 & Low 5161). The positive part is that we have not broken the low of the previous week when Nifty Future broke out of 5200 levels and made a high of 5400. When seen in this context, lowe top / lower bottom seems less significant.

As shown on the attached chart, Nifty Future has been moving inside a channel for over 50 weeks. It will have a break out at 5420 which could lead to further up move. If Nifty Future crosses 5400 now, it will even cross 200 DMA which should be considered positive. For the next week, long position are advised with stop loss of 5140.
Please don't miss the post for 14.11.2011 where I have discussed a pattern which gives reasoning for the possible up move.

Have a nice weekend!
Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 11.11.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 3O MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE:
In Wednesday's trading, Nifty Future showed its first sign of weakness when it did not break the previous days high. If you see the market in this perspective, subseuent fall after SBI results and Moody's adverse comments on the Banking sector, just provided the reasons to explain the sharp fall. The day wihch ended as a lower top / lower bottom, saw the day's high of 5131 and day's low of 5226. It closed the day near the low of the day at 5237.
Subsequent to our market fall, Wrold markets too have been down by over 2%. Considering our market holiday today, we may see the impact in tomorrow's trading, though I expect it to be diluted if US & Europe markets close positive today. Since the time we had a gap up opening some days back, I had been xpecting the Nifty Future to fill the gap at 5192. I am sure we will not miss out that event this time around.
For tomorrow, I would recommend to square up the short positions, as I expect Nifty Future to take support around 5140 . Moreover, tomorrow is the last trading day of the truncated weak and hence would provide important guidance as regards the following weeks. I would prefer to wait for Monday to tke a fresh view on the market - now that it has filled the gap. I would certainly not like to add fresh short position .
Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.
With Best Wishes,
Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 09.11.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 3O MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE:
After a subdued opening session, Nifty Future went down to make the day's low of 5470 and bounced back to make the day's high of 5334 and closed the day at 5316. The good part of the day's candle is that there is lower shadow - suggesting bullishness. Where as, lower top / lower bottom suggests weakness. On the attached chart you will find that the day's candle remains above the Trend Line (in Red) and has taken support on the median line of the Andrew's Pitchfork (in magenta).
For tomorrow, the EOD does suggests a firm opening, but considering that the Thursday is a market holiday, the enthusiasm on the part of the traders may be lacking as no one would like to take risks in these volatile and uncertain times. On the higher side, 5350 and 5400 remain hurdles. In view of the holdiays, I do not see much merit in taking fresh long position.
One can take short positon below 5300 with a stop loss of 5350. On the down side, 5250 and 5190 will provide support. However, on the break of 5250 Nifty Future will break the trend line and weakness may accelerate.
As regards the Index Options data, on the Call side, there is an increase in open interest of about 20 Lacs in the strike price ranging from 5300-5500 where as on the put side there has been significant increase in open interest of about 10 Lacs in the stike price of 4800. As this strike price is about 10% from the current market price, I wonder the wisdom of the buyer in paying the premium of Rs. 6/-. For us, the wisdom lies in not worrying about the whys but just following it by buying the put for the strike price of 5000 which is available for Rs. 19/-. As the time to expiry is short, the quantiity can be kept small so that the total risk money is affordable.
Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.
With Best Wishes,
Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 08.11.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN
NIFTY FUTURE:
In Friday's trading, Nifty Future opened with an upside gap and made the day's high at 5354 but gave up all the gains in the second half of the day to fill the opening gap when it made the day's low at 5283. It closed the day marginally better at 5317.
For tomorrow or rather the remaining 3 trading days of the week, Friday's low of 5283 becomes an important level (its also very close to the mid point of the month @ 5288). Fresh short position may be taken below 5280 with stop loss of 5325. On the down side, it will have support at 5250 and 5200. On the attached EOD chart, you will find that Nifty Future will break the trend line at 5250 and hence if Nifty Future trades below 5250 it may have a sharp fall and it is possible that 5200 does not provide the much talked about support. As shown on the 30 min chart, 5150 and 5050 are the next support levels. In nutshell, for tomorrow 5250 becomes an all to important level.
I am not recommeding fresh buy for Nifty Future, as 5350 and 5400 may provide resistance on the upside.
As regards the Index Option data, there has been increase of about 18 lacs in open interest for Strike Price ranging from 5400-5600. As against this, on the put side, the increase in open interest is 29.34 Lacs for the strike price ranging from 4900 to 5400. Looking at this data, I feel the bias remian in favour of the downside. As mentioned last week, buying 5000 put at about 20-25 will be advantagesous in the event of a sharp down side as discussed above.
Please do not trade without STOP LOSS, as downside could be sharp once Nifty Future falls below 5250.
With Best Wishes,
Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR WEEKENDED 04.11.2011

NIFTY FUTURE WEEKLY

Last week, Nifty Future saw a range of 157 points (High 5378 & Low 5221) and closed at 5317 almost at the mid point of the week. While at this weekend, the set up on the weekly chart still remains positive, the point we must note is that Nifty Future made a lower top compared to the previous week.

As shown on the chart, Nifty Future remains within a channel and having a breakout at 5450. On the optimistic side, even if Nifty Future manages to cross the channel, we have many resistance levels on the higher side. Hence one neeeds to be very cautious with long positions at the higher levels.

On the down side, 5200 level may offer good support for a bounce atleast.

I would like to highlight that in veiw of the intervening holidays, we have FNO settlement just 12 trading days away. It is important for the option buyer to keep in mind this fact as time value of the option will erode very fast. As against this, the option seller will stand to gain on account of the same.

Have a nice weekend!

Ketan Asher.

PS: In view of market holiday on Monday, regular post for Tuesday will be uploaded by late evening on Monday.

TURNING POINTS FOR 04.11.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE:
After a weak opening, Nifty Future broke yesterday's low to make the day's low at 5221 and in the second session made a sharp up move to make the day's high of 5315 and closed firm at 5295. However the days candle remains a lower top / lower bottom (bearish signal) but with long lower shadow (bullish signal).
In today's trading, Nifty Future came so close to filling the gap but turned shy of filling the gap and completing one technical requirement. This brings to mind the idea that what if next time Nifty Future simply goes below without taking support at 5200 (see trend line on the EOD chart). It may sound prepostrous today, but if it can happen on the charts of Frances' CAC index and Germany's Dax and is just short of happening on DOW and S &P - why can't it happen on our Nifty? Just think about it as a remote possibility and if it happens be ready to take immediate corrective steps to your long positions.
Coming back to the tomorrow's market - we can expect to see a strong opening session (barring unforseen movemnet in US/European markets). Long position may be taken above 5310 with stop loss of 5275. On the higher side, it will find resistance at 5370 and 5400 where it will find resistance of the Andrew's Pitchfork median line shown on the 30 min chart. In case of weakness at 5400 level, one can consider buying puts of 5200 strike price or go short with stop loss of 5430. Short position may be taken below 5275 with stop loss of 5310. On the down side, it will find support at 5205 and thereafter, fall can accelerate as 'imagined' above.
As regards Index option data, there has been increase of open interest of 7.97 lacs in case of Calls for the strike price of 5300 & 5400. On the Put side, there has been increase of 14.95 Lacs for the strike price of 5000 - 5200. The origin for my that dreadful thinking starts from this data - why would someone buy so many puts if the market is not going to go down? Secondly, we have two holidays next week (Monday & Thursday) and hence in these volatile times people may not be so euphoric in the market on the last trading day of the week. To sum up, I feel it is unlikely Nifty Future will go above 5370. Once again I would repeat that please refer to this data on the nse website duuring market hours, as it guides you to many trading opportunities.
Whatever may be your view, please do not trade without STOP LOSS.
With Best Wishes,
Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 03.11.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE:

On the back of fall in US / European markets, we too opened with a downside gap and made the day's low of 5243 in the opening session and bounced back thereafter to make the day's high of 5335 which was yesterday's high too. In the second session Nifty Future pulled back to close the day at 5280. Interestingly, Nifty Spot filled the gap but Nifty Future has not yet filled the gap. On the EOD chart, you will find that Trend Line leaves the scope for Nifty Future to fill the gap up to 5192 and provide the support.

Once again if we look over our shoulders to the US & European markets, they are trading positive by over 1% at the time of writing this post. It is likely that we too may open firm but considering the market's reluctance too go up beyond 5335 today, caution is advised at higher levels as 5370 (median line of the Andrew's Pitchfork and months' mid point too) may provide resistance tomorrow. I would only suggest that, view should be positive as long as Nifty Future remains above 5310 and should turn negative below it.

Short position may be taken at 5370 level with recent high of 5420 as stop loss. Once below today's low of 5243, possibility of filling up the gap remians open.

Long position may be taken around 5200 level with stop loss of 5165.

As regards the Index Options data, there has been increase in open interest of 16.12 lacs in the Calls for the strike price ranging from 5300 to 5600. On the put side, increase in open interest for strike price of 4700 & 4800 is 15.47 lacs and 19.98 lacs for the strike price ranging from 5000 to 5300. Consideing the heavy increase , I would read it, that we should see the filling up of the downside gap, before we see the high of 5403 being crossed.

In these volatile times, please do not trade without STOP LOSS and last but not the least please see the TP GRID and revise the levels as market makes new tops and bottoms and I am sure it will help you to be on the ruight side of the market.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 02.11.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE:
In today's trading, Nifty Future opened with a down side gap and filled the gap in the early session by making the day's high of 5335. Thereafter, it maintained downward bias to make the day's low of 5261. If finally cosed the day at 5291 and left the lower shadow on the EOD candle, thereby giving some hopes of recovery tomorrow.
At the time of writing this post, US & Europe markets remain weak and hence there is a good possibility that we too may open weak. On the down side, we have support at 5200 though the gap will be filled at 5192. Moreover, we also have trend line support at that level and hence a bounce can be expected from these levels. Hence, I would not advise short positions for tomorrow and instead one can consider going long at lower levels with strict stop loss of 5165. On the higher side, it will find resistance at 5310. It is advisable not to remain short once Nifty Future trades above 5345. I would like to add here that one bounce after filling the support can be expected. Moreover, we will need some solid reasons for Nifty Future to go below (say close) 5165 and this is unlikely untill Nifty Future tests the 5450 levels once again and fails. Simply put, till then bulls can enjoy.
As regards the index option data, there has been almost similar increase in open interest (over 10 Lacs) in puts (5100 strike price) & calls (5300 strike price). This suggests that market may oepn weak and then go up from the support levels indicated above.
Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.
With Best Wishes,
Ketan Asher.