NIFTY FUTURE WEEKLY
The last week's trading ended on a very weak note, after Nifty Future falling for all the five day's of the week. In doing so, it has formed a lower top on the weekly chart - but yet to make a lower bottom). As can be seen on the attached chart, Nifty Future has taken support on the Trend Line (in Brown colour) and also closed just on the trend line - near the low of the week, suggesting extreme weakness. During the weak, Nifty Future saw a range of 319 (Hi of 6210 & Lo of 5891) and closed at 5914.
In view of the support taken on the Trend Line, fresh weakness will emerge once Nifty Future trades below Friday's Low of 5891. On the down side, it will find support at 5850 and 5780. With the last week's fall we are now approaching the lower end of the current range of 5700-6200 and hence caution is advised for short positions as Nifty Future could take support at 5780. However if the previous low of 5727 is broken, we should be ready to see the 5500 levels quickly. It is only when Nifty Future moves below 5500 level, we should get ready to see the 4400 being the target for the right shoulder shown in the weekly chart for sometime now. If the projection of 21 weeks given on the chart is to be correct, we have already completed 10 weeks and have 11 weeks more to go. While this looks unlikely today - just as 5700 looked unlikely on Muhurat trading day when Nifty Future did a high of 6349. One thing is for sure that with the way events are shaping up since than - Inflation, Scams, Increase in Interest Rate, Increase in Oil price etc. more people are now looking at down side possibility. May be .... it is the announcement of weak results by frontline stocksn which may pull the trigger for the market to trade below 5500.
While there is no need to be extremely pessimistic right away, but one must be ready to face the reality when it actually emerges and keep their trading positions in sync with these eventualities (Easy way to do is to keep strict stop loss levels). I am sure those referring to the TP Grid or Quarterly Grid will get some unbiased guidance from these numbers.
Have a nice weekend!
Ketan Asher.
No comments:
Post a Comment