TURNING POINTS FOR WEEK ENDED 28012011

NIFTY FUTURE WEEKLY

Pleased to inform you that my article titled "ANDREWS PITCHFORK ON LONG TERM CHARTS" has now been published in The Educated Analyst - an e-magazine published from Australia. Please visit http://www.educatedanalyst.com/.

This week, Nifty Future has closed outside the channel which was formed since May 2009. The weeks' range was 310 points. While yesterday's fall was bad enough, the worrying factor for the next week is - Infosys moving below 3150 where it breaks the channel on the weekly chart, similar to Nifty Future. This can only take Nifty Future further down below 4575 to break the channel on the Monthly chart (updated) as well. Moreover, DOW too seems to have found resistance at 12000 level and has moved below 11860 (level referred to in my article titled "ANDREWS PITCHFORK ON THE LONG TERM CHARTS"). Fall in the world markets can only add to the dampening sentiments here.

With Jan 2011 coming to end on Monday, oscillators on the monthly chart too are getting in to the sell mode.

Positive for the week was that yesterday, Bank Nifty Future has not gone below the previous low of 10384, but as long as it remains below 10731 (52 week Mid point level given in the TP Grid), one can not be certain that it will hold for long.

Considering that oscillators are over sold on the EOD charts, a pull back seems likely and possibly it can happen on Monday as it is the last day of the month. However, the up side is now getting capped at 5620 as the resistance at the channel which was broken on the weekly chart.

In nut shell, as long as we remain below 5555 level, down side seems more likely than the upside. Secondly, we need to break 5620 for considering the possibility of an up move. As we have just moved outside the channel on the weekly chart and ready to break similar channel on the monthly chart, not a great time to look for investment buying. Avoid bottom fishing as market has not indicated how deep below is the bottom. Give some time, let the market settle down and show signs of bottoming out. And better still - let the reaction to the Budget get over by next month this time.

Have a nice weekend & Keep Learning,

Ketan Asher.