NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE:
NIFTY FUTURE:
In today's opening session, Nifty Future did not show the enthusiasm seen in the last hour yesterday. Nonetheless, Nifty Future did manage to make higher top (than yesterday) at 4848. After the inflation figures (lower in many months) were out, Nifty Future got weak once again, to make the day's low of 4751 and closed the day at 4764. There is no doubt that the close is weak, but the positive is that we have a higher top and higher bottom for the day - but with little longer upper shadow which reflects weakness.
Today's close is so poised, that tomorrow it can go below the recent bottom of 4731 and once again go down to test the low of 4632. With RBI credit policy scheduled for Friday, the market will be on the tenterhooks as to what the policy will bring. In these circumstances, I would suggest consider going long above 4810 with stop loss of 4760. On the higher side, it will find resistance at 4850 - 4885 and 4920.
I am not suggesting going short at lower levels, as there is just one day before RBI policy is announced. In the event of softening stance by the RBI could lead to up move in stocks - at least for what is known as Santaclaus (Year end) rally. Another important reason behind my positive bias is the Dow chart, which does not look so bad (until 11750 is breached). I would like to caution that this is just my view and could be wrong. To over come this, one can consider 4716 (previous quarter low) as a bench mark level above which one can remain hopeful (like me) of an up move and remain cautious below this level. On the down side, 4680 should be considered as one of the supports.
We are at a crucial juncture, so whatever may be your view, please do not trade without STOP LOSS.
With Best Wishes,
Ketan Asher.
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