TURNING POINTS FOR 27.12.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE:

In today's trading, Nifty Future continued its up move and end the day with higher top / higher bottom. During the day, it made low of 4720 and high of 4804 near the end of the day. It closed the day at 4788. From the 30 min chart, you will observe that Trend Line (in green) has provided the resistance. Similarly on the EOD chart, you will observe that median line has provided the resistance.

Considering the number of times Nifty Future has found resistance near today's high, there is a possibility that Nifty Future may once again test the lower levels. One can consider going short with stop loss of 4810. On the down side, fall will accelerate below 4750. The support exists at 4720 and 4685. It is only on the break of 4685, that one needs to doubt the sustainability of the current up move. I for one would expect this level to hold and one can consider going long. On the higher side, it will find resistance at 4750 and 4800.

As US & European markets are closed today, we have one thing less to worry about tomorrow morning.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

PS: As I will be on holiday for the rest of the week, there will be no post for the remainder of the week. Regular posts will start from the weekend on 31st Dec.

TURNING POINTS FOR 26.12.2011

NIFTY FUTUTRE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE:
In Friday's trading, Nifty Future opened firm but found resistance at the day's high of 4778 and remained in a narrow range. It made second attempt to cross the days high which failed and that took Nifty Future to test the lower levels and made the day's low of 4697. It closed the day at 4721. For the day Nifty Future made higher top /higher bottom which should be considered positive although Nifty Future closed in the red.
For Monday, one can consider going long with stop loss of 4685. On the higher side, it will find resistance at 4780 and 4840. Our current positive sentiment gets boost from World markets with DOW and S & P closing near the high of the week. In these circumstances, I would not advise going short.

While this move has the potential to go up to 5050 (subject to resistance levels referred above), I would not advise being complacent and miss out putting STOP LOSS.

Wishing you a MERRY CHRISTMAS and a great week ahead!
Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR WEEKENDED 23.12.2011

NIFTY FUTURE WEEKLY

One more week that ended with lower bottom /lower top with the only positive indication that it ended in green compared to the previous two that ended in red. As expected, we are seeing Santaclaus rally not only in our markets but also in US & Europe.

During the week, Nifty Future saw a range of 240 points (High 4778 & Low 4538) and closed the week at 4721. Had the close been above 4770, it would have been a piercing candle pattern on the chart.

Considering the candle pattern and the fact that World markets too are experiencing rally, we can hope to see the Nifty Future going up next week - which gets added importance as we have FNO settlement scheduled for Thursday. The current setup has the potential to go up to 5050 which can provide resistance due to trend line (in red) shown on the chart. On the way up, we have major resistance at 4840 - 4920 and 5050.

Have a nice weekend!

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 23.12.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE:

In view of weak Asian markets, Nifty Future too opened weak and after some narrow movement went down to make the day's low of 4640 - thus giving good opportunity to go long at lower levels. In the second session, after the European markets opened strong Nifty Future too managed to gather momentum and made the day's high of 4758 and closed at 4749.

It is needless to say the close today has been strong and we can expect to open strong tomorrow. However, I must caution that we have many hurdles to cross - one close by at 4767 (see 30 min chart) and the next ones at 4800 & 4850,

For tomorrow, I see the possibility of Nifty Future going up to 4767 and retrace from this level. While I do not suggest to go short at 4767, I would prefer buying at lower levels as done today. In case Nifty Future retraces some gains, it will find support at 4725, 4685 and 4650. Of the above levels, 4685 takes greater importance as round this level we have trend line support too.

Tomorrow being last trading day of the week, close above 4770 should be considered as positive for the next week - which can take Nifty Future to the major resistance level at 5050.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 22.12.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE:

In yesterday's trading, Nifty Future opened firm and after some sideways movement went up to the high of 4725 and closed the day at 4712. On the 30 min chart you will observe that, in the last 30 min Nifty Future managed to cross the trend line and closed above it. By the end of the day, Nifty & Bank Nifty Future were 3% & 5% up respectively.

At the time of writing this post, SGX Nifty/Asian markets are trading lower and it is likely that we too may see lower opening. It is likely that Nifty Future may come down to test the levels of 4680. Fresh long position may be considered at lower levels with stop loss of 4630. On the higher side, Nifty Future has to cross 4732 (Trend line in Blue on EOD chart) to continue and gain further momentum. Further up, it will face resistance at 4770 and 4840.

I would not advise going short at current levels, particularly when Nifty Future is gathering up side momentum.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 21.12.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE:

And one more down day and a new low. After showing lot of resilience and one attempt to cross the resistance level of 4634, but in last one hour Nifty Future saw massive selling whereby Nifty Future went down to make the day's low of 4538 and closed the day at 4555 - needless to say weak.

At the time of writing this post, US & European markets are trading about 2% up and hence it may not be a great thing to write that our markets too may join them. Nonetheless, I will complete this post even if it is a mere formality. While I had been proved incorrect for the past 2 days when I was expecting the bounce and suggesting not to go short at lwoer levels - at least in hindsight I can consider, that I was just ahead of time.

For tomorrow, one can consider going long (assuming gap up opening) with stop loss of 4600. On the higher side, it will find resistance at 4680 and 4720. It will gather further momentum once it crosses 4720. I will just add that this Santaclaus rally which looks most likely to materialise from tomorrow, should be considered as dead cat bounce as worst for our markets may not be entirely over. This is just to end the year on a pleasant note.

Lets hope and prey that the rally in World markets remains intact till they close.

Last but not the least, whatever may be the temptation - don't forget to keep STOP LOSS levels in place and better still - trade in options.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 20.12.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE :

Contrary to my expectations, Nifty Future opened with a down side gap and went down to make the day's low of 4561. In the later part of the day, it made a high of 4634 and filled the gap and closed the day at 4624. As I had mentioned in yesterday's post, I am hopeful of Nifty Future taking support at this level and in that context it is nice to see an EOD candle with long lower shadow suggesting the possibility of a bounce - of course subject to many hurdles along the way.

For tomorrow, one can consider going long above 4634 with stop loss of 4590. On the higher side, it will find resistance at 4670 - 4700 and 4735. I do not advise short position at lower levels.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 19.12.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE:

Last two hours of trading on Friday, saw a sharp sell off - particularly after the credit policy which was well received after it was announced. The fall took Nifty Future down to the day's low of 4625 (previous low 4632) and took support on the median line of Andrew's Pitchfork on the 30 min chart. Post RBI announcement, it made the day's high of 4940 which has been a major resistance area for sometime now.

On the attached 30 min chart, you will observe that the low is on the Median Line (in Blue) and more importantly the Friday's low is also a 2.618 times the previous range. These two reasons suggest to me that there could be a turnaround from this levels as we have also managed to do double bottom. However, I must add a cautious note that this will hold good till the Friday's low of 4625 or 4600 is not broken.

For tomorrow, I would recommend going long with stop loss of 4600. Those who wish to be cautious can wait to see if Nifty Future manages to trade above 4668 (2010 Low) before taking long positions. On the higher side it will find resistance at 4730 and 4780.

As regards the Index Option chain data, after the sharp fall, there has been increase in open interest of 31.39 Lacs for the strike price of 4600 & 4700 Calls. As against this, the increase in open interest on the put side has been much lower. To me, this too suggests a good opening for tomorrow.

As the markets remain volatile, it is prudent to trade in option and that too with strict STOP LOSS levels.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR WEEKENDED 16.12.2011

NIFTY FUTURE WEEKLY

The week ended on a very weak note, after seeing a bounce post the announcement of RBI Credit policy. The fall looked more like a Christmas Sale with no buyers. During the week, Nifty Future saw a range of 290 points (High 4915 & Low 4625).
While the sell off was sharp and made a new low at 4625 - just 7 points below the recent low of 4632. If we see a bounce on Monday - as I expect, for one more reason which I will discuss with 30 min chart, it will be considered as a double bottom. As indicated, in the Monthly update, the first indication that the worst is behind us - at least for the time being, when 4667 (2010 low) is breached and confirmed when Nifty Future starts trading above 4718 (quarterly low).

Please do not be overly pessimistic about the market, as we are just few days away from the end of this rangebound year.

Have a nice weekend!

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 16.12.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE:

After a gap down opening, Nifty Future made a new low at 4671 (as against support level of 4680) and saw a sharp up move thereafter, to make the day's high of 4784 and closed the day at 4757. The day's candle leaves a long lower shadow and should be considered positive. On the attached 30 min chart you will observe that Andrew's Pitchfork (in Blue) median line has provided support.

Today is a big day, when RBI credit policy will be announced. This could lead to some volatility till the policy is announced (guess it is at 11 a.m.). As mentioned yesterday, I would advise bias to be positive above 4716. I continue to believe that short positions are best avoided at lower levels. In case of some nervousness, Nifty Future may go down to 4650 (same median line on Andrew's Pitchfork on 30 min chart) and it will be better not to panic as it will also help to make a double bottom.

Long positions may be taken at lower levels nearer 4700 with stop loss of 4650. On the higher side, it will find resistance at 4785. It is not advisable to remain short if 4810 is taken out. Being a Friday, one can consider market to be positive for the next week if the close is anywhere above 4810.

In view of above average Volatility expected today, it will be advisable to trade in options and in any case, please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 15.12.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE:

In today's opening session, Nifty Future did not show the enthusiasm seen in the last hour yesterday. Nonetheless, Nifty Future did manage to make higher top (than yesterday) at 4848. After the inflation figures (lower in many months) were out, Nifty Future got weak once again, to make the day's low of 4751 and closed the day at 4764. There is no doubt that the close is weak, but the positive is that we have a higher top and higher bottom for the day - but with little longer upper shadow which reflects weakness.

Today's close is so poised, that tomorrow it can go below the recent bottom of 4731 and once again go down to test the low of 4632. With RBI credit policy scheduled for Friday, the market will be on the tenterhooks as to what the policy will bring. In these circumstances, I would suggest consider going long above 4810 with stop loss of 4760. On the higher side, it will find resistance at 4850 - 4885 and 4920.

I am not suggesting going short at lower levels, as there is just one day before RBI policy is announced. In the event of softening stance by the RBI could lead to up move in stocks - at least for what is known as Santaclaus (Year end) rally. Another important reason behind my positive bias is the Dow chart, which does not look so bad (until 11750 is breached). I would like to caution that this is just my view and could be wrong. To over come this, one can consider 4716 (previous quarter low) as a bench mark level above which one can remain hopeful (like me) of an up move and remain cautious below this level. On the down side, 4680 should be considered as one of the supports.

We are at a crucial juncture, so whatever may be your view, please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 14.12.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE:

After a weak opening, Nifty Future made the day's low of 4731 and went up, only to retest the day's low level once again. In a surprise move, in the last hour it bounced back sharply to make the day's high of 4840 and closed the day at 4811.

For tomorrow, fresh long position should be considered above 4840 with stop loss of 4800. On the higher side, it will resistance at 4885 - 4935. Its only if 4935 is crossed, we can hope to see the hurdle at 5020 as shown on the 30 min chart.

As regards the Index Options data, there has been increase in open interest of about 11 lacs for the strike price ranging from 4900 to 5100. As against this, on the put side there has been reduction in the open interest. This too confirms the possibility of an up move. I would once again remind the readers - particularly those who are day trading, to refer to this information provided (real time) by NSE on its website.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 13.12.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE:

In today's trading, Nifty Future made an attempt to go up but could not go beyond the day's high of 4915 in the first hour of trade. Thereafter, Nifty Future maintained downward bias for the rest of the day and made the day's low of 4762 and closed at 4774. Except IT sector all sectors were weak after announcement of IIP nos. which were below expectations.

For tomorrow, I would not recommend going short as we are near to the previous quarters' low of 4716. As indicated earlier, major bearishness can be expected only below this level and hence if Nifty Future takes support around this level, one can consider going long with stop loss of 4700. Alternatively, one can consider going long on the break of trend line (at 4820). On the higher side, Nifty Future will find resistance at 4850 and 4885.

Considering the volatility, it is advisable to trade in Options. Please do not trade without stop loss.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR WEEKENDED 0.12.2011

NIFTY FUTURE WEEKLY
During the past week, Nifty Future could not cross the trend line resistance at around 5140 and saw a sharp correction to wipe out almost 75% of the gains made in previous week. During the week, NIfty Future made a range of 285 points (High 5135 & Low 4850). It closed the week @ 4886 near the lows of the week.
Ironically, while Global markets are trading near the high of their trading range - despite all their economic problems, our markets are trading near the lower end - as Govt. admission to our own problems. As mentioned in my posts last week, we may see a bounce from 4850, as the gap on the EOD chart got filled. However, with renewed agitation by Anna Hazare and court hearing regarding 2G scam, may cap the upper levels near 5000 next week. On the down side, break of 4800 opens up the possibility of retesting the previous lows.
Trade with caution and tight stop loss levels.
Have a nice weekend!
Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 09.12.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE:

As expected, Nifty Future opened weak and remained weak throughout the day. During the day, Nifty Future made the day's high of 5074 and low of 4938 - just 2 point short of new low for this month.It closed the day at 4957 - once again a weak close, near the low of the day. On the attached 30 min chart, you will observe that Nifty Future has taken support on the trend line and today's fall brings us near multiple support area at 4900-4920.

For tomorrow, we can expect a weak opening but would not advise going short at lower levels. Instead, one can consider going short when Nifty Future bounces back up to 5020-5040. Do remember that its a Friday - last day for the weekly candle and hence a short bounce can be expected.

Long positions should be avoided unless you wish to trade for a possible bounce after Nifty Future takes support around 4860 (the gap area).

I would once again remind you to refer to the TP Grid as it will help you to get the levels once a new high/low is formed during the day.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 08.12.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE:

After a firm opening, Nifty Future went on to make the day's high of 5135 . On the attached EOD chart you will observe that 5125-5140 is a strong resistance area. The up move was led by Bank stocks as well as Infosys. However, in the last one hour, it could not sustain at higher levels and fell down to the day's low of 5055 and closed the day at 5086 - near the low of the day suggesting weakness. The day's candle is a shooting star - a potential trend reversal indication.

For tomorrow, I would suggest going short below 5050 with stop loss of 5080. On the down side, it will find support at 5000 and 4920.

I would not advise going long for now, as Nifty Future can show a sharp correction to fill the gap at 4862.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 07.12.2011

NIFTY FUTURE EOD / NIFTY FYTTYRE 30 MIN
NIFTY FUTURE:
In Monday's trading, Nifty Future went down to the day's low of 5022 and bounced back to the day's high of 5085 and closed the day at 5066. It is important to note that Nifty Future did not clear the previous high of 5094 and consequently the trend line remains a hurdle.
For tomorrow, I would recommend going short below 5050 with stop loss of 5100. On the down side, it will find support at 5000 and 4920. I would not reommend going long in a hurry, in view of recent downgrades by S & P and important announcements expected from Europe and not to speak of our own problems. If Nifty Future falls below 4865, it can fall further to test the previous low near 4600.
Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.
With Best Wishes,
Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 05.12.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE:

Last week closed on a strong note at 5081 leaving lot of hopes that 'Good days are back'. As we start a little short week tomorrow, we can see some correction as US markets too have come down by the end of day on Friday - after seeing higher levels in the beginning of the day. Secondly, as shown on the chart, we are very close to trend line resistance at 5125.

For tomorrow, I would advise going short with a stop loss of 5125. On the down side, it will find support at 5000 and 4920. It is only when Nifty Future breaks 4860, when the markets can get weak. To be cautious, one can even consider selling Calls with 5200 Strike Price or buy 4900 or 5000 Puts.

As regards the Index Options data, there has been massive (44.80 Lacs) increase in the open interest on put side with strike price ranging from 4900-5100. As against this, the increase in open interest on the call side is much muted (14.36 Lacs) for the strike price 5200 & 5300. Does it indicate that the top is in place for some time to come? Stay tune to the markets and plan your trades knowing that Tuesday is a trading holiday.

In any case, please do not forget to use STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR WEEKENDED 02.12.2011

NIFTY FUTURE WEEKLY

Two bouts of strong up move, ended the week with above average range of 344 points (High 5094 & Low 4750). The best part being the close (5081) near the higher end of the weekly range.

On the attached chart, I have marked a trend line (in red) which can provide the hurdle for the coming week. Next week is one trading day short, due to Holiday on Tuesday and this could be a dampener to the enthusiasm seen last week.

Important thing now is to see if Nifty Future is able to cross the trend line resistance (in red) after a correction, may be up to filling up of the gap on the daily chart up to 4862.

Nifty Future continues to trade within a channel for many weeks now. In the event Nifty Future clears 5125 (trend line resistance) it has to clear 5365 to cross the channel and bring more strength to the rally.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 02.12.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE:

On the back of strong up move in US markets, Nifty Future too opened with Gap up. In the early trades it went to make the day's high of 5015 but in absence of follow up buying could not sustain at higher levels and went down to make the day's low of 4936. It finally closed the day at 4964. The day's candle ended up almost as a doji. In today's up move, we jumped one resistance level of 4930 and a gap (4862) remains to be filled in the day's to come.

For tomorrow, I would continue to advise caution at higher levels - at least till the gap is filled at 4862 and hence I feel it is best to avoid fresh long positions, at higher levels.

Short position may be considered below 4975 with stop loss of 5020. On the down side, it will find support at 4920 - 4875 and major support at 4825. Weakness will accelerate when Nifty Future trades below 4825.

On the higher side, it will find resistance at 5040 and 5100 and good levels to go short.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.