NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE:
In today's trading, Nifty Future opened with a small gap and maintained upward bias during the day. It made the day's low of 5070 and high of 5158. It closed the day near the high of the day at 5154. You will observe on the 30 min chart that Nifty Future has made the day's top on the median line of the Andrew's Pitchfork. With today's move, we are just at the threshold of crossing the 5180 level and go higher up, to fill the gap at 5300. Will the market oblige by doing what is much awaited?
For Nifty Future to go up and fill the 5300 gap, it has to cross 5180 and 5225 levels. Once 5225 is crossed the possibility of this gap getting filled increases manyfold. As usual I would not recommed the adventure of buying at higher levels, as without the particpation of Reliance & Infy acheiving this feat looks unlikely and more importantly there is divergence on the 30 min chart. In the event Nifty Future is not able to keep today's momentum then we have the risk of double top too and the fall thereafter can be sharp. In these circumstance those holding out of the money call option should tread with caution, as time to FNO settlement is running out fast.
Short position may be taken below 5125 with stop loss of 5170. On the down side, it will find support at 5085 - 5040 and 5000. Fall will accelerate below 5000.
Today's Index Option data shows decrease in open interest in call's of 5000 & 5100 strike and there has been some increase (13 Lacs) in strike price ranging from 5200 - 5400. Whereas, on the put side. there has been huge increase (24.88 Lacs) in open interest for strike price of 5100 and about 16 L in stike price ranging from 4800 - 5000. As usual, I wonder why would somone pay for such a huge quanitity of Puts unless he is sure of making money as and when the market falls!
Trade with caution and don't forget to put a suitable STOP LOSS.
With Best Wishes,
Ketan Asher.
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