TURNING POINTS FOR 01.11.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE:

In today's trading, Nifty Future traded in a narrow range of 44 points (High 5378 & Low 5334) with downward bias and closed the day at 5347. On the EOD chart, Nifty Future made lower top / lower bottom indicating weakness. As Nifty Future closed near the low of the day, the weakness may continue tomorrow as even the US/Europe markets are trading in the red at the time of writing this post.

For tomorrow, one can consider going short below 5336 with stop loss of 5380. On the lower side, it will find support at 5300 and 5250. Please note that the gap will be filled only when Nifty Future Trades at 5185 and a bounce can be expected.

As regards the Index Optuin data, there has been increase in open interest in both the puts and calls with bias towards the Calls. However, considerting the weakness on the charts, I would not advise buying calls except whem Nifty Future trades around 5200 froma where bounce can be exoected.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wushes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 31.10.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE :
It seems the market celebrated Diwali a day after Muhurat Trading by opening gap up and thereby leaving the previous gap unfilled. On Friday, Nifty Future made the day's high of 5403 - very close to the 200 DMA of 5418. This euphoria was more out of Technical reasons of short covering rather than the resolving of Euro crisis. As such, a small news item in todays paper regarding possible legal hurdles likely for Germany may puncture the feed good factor and hence it will be important to see how Asian markets opens tomorrow.
On the EOD chart, I have drawn a trend line which will act as resustance alongwith 200 DMA. Normally 200 DMA provides support and resistance at least once, if not more. In light of the above, I expect the gap to be filled before we even attempt to cross 5450. Fresh short position may be taken with this level (5450) as a stop loss. As long as Nifty Future does not go below 5185, we have to consider the fresh up move intact. However, this being too far, it will be better to book profits and buy at lower levels. In view of the strong resistance shown on the EOD chart, it will be better to wait for buying on corrections. Left out feeling should be avoided as there are many hurdles around 5500 region as discussed in Weekly/Monthly post.
As regards the Index Option data, there is an increase of 46.25 Lacs open interest in puts for the stike price ranging from 5200-5400. Where as on the Call side, there has been increase of 30. 74 Lacs in the strike price ranging from 5400-5600. Considering that the increase is more on the put side, I would expect Nifty Future to correct before it continues the up move!
I would consider it worth while to buy small quantilty of 5000 put at about Rs. 20-25 more as a Contrarian buy. After all, tomorrow is the last trading day of the 64th month as shown on the monthly chart.
Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.
With Best Wishes,
Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR WEEKENDED 28.10.2011

NIFTY FUTURE WEEKLY

Many of you will recall that on last year's Muhurat trading day, Nifty Future scaled to 6349 and never saw that level again till date. This time around we have a sharp up move just after the muhurat trading day. May be it is the markets' way of getting even with the traders?

While I did warn you of the up move coming but never expected sharpness that we saw today. Anyway today's up move once again brings us close to many resistance levels including the channel drawn on the attached chart.

For next week the breakout level for this channel is at 5480 and just above that we have mid point at 5532. For momentum to maintain and gain strength, it is importatnt that we break the channel on the upside hopefully next week, or else we are back to continuing the downside and may be this time more sharply.

Have a nice weekend!

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 28.10.2011

DUE TO TECHINCAL PROBLEMS WITH THE BLOGGER, UNABLE TO UPLOAD THE CHARTS.

NIFTY FUTURE:
Finally, in the Muhurat trading, Nifty Future decisively crossed above the 5200 level. It made high of 5257 and low of 5227 and closed at 5233.
While we were celebrating Diwali and are done with the credit policy and the FNO settlement, World markets have been rocking with DOW closing at 12209 yesterday (up over 17% from the reccent bottom).
Considering the overall feel good factor, we should open strong. One can consider going long only above 5260 with stop loss of 5220. On the higher side, it will face resistance at 5325 - 5365 and 5420. Once again today being the last day of the week, the close for Nifty Future will be an importanct factor for the coming days. On the lower side, weakness will increase only when Nifty Future breaks 5165.
Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.
With Best Wishes,
Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 25.10.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE:
One more failed attempt to cross the much awaited 5200 level. It is so unfortunate that though we are ready, we are missing out the party when the world is rejoicing. May be, its the bad timing of RBI Credit policy and the fear factor of its unpredictability. On the 30 min chart you will find that 5200 level has provided resistance for 5 times. While the 5 times resistance level does mean bad, but the flip side to it is - what when it finally gets cleared? To sum up, I remain optimistic of the break out and if there are no surprises in the RBI credit policy announcements today, it will provide the necessary trigger for the breakout.
For today, one can consider going long with stop loss of 5050. On the higher side, it will find resistance at 5130 and 5185. It is not advisable to remain short above 5185.
I would not recommend fresh short position for two reasons viz. There are number of supports at lower level at 5000 and 4940 which will hold the market without disturbing the structure of the market. Secondly, there is a good possibility that in case the RBI policy is even less hawkish than the earlier ones, trader may not get the chance to even square up the short position. While I may be sounding little optimisitc but that has been happening for the past few days but market is not obliging.
As regards index options data, it shows total open interest of 94 Lacs Calls for 5200 strike price providing the indicator that Nifty Future will close above that level??? There has been increase of open interest (11.60 Lacs) in Puts of 5100 & 5200 strike price. This could mean that we may see a weak opening due to RBI Credit policy and once done with that we may see an up move. Just a wishful thinking and I hope it does turnout to be true.
Wishing you all a very Happy Diwali and A prosperpus New Year filled with lots of peace.
Ketan Asher.
PS: The next post will now be for 28th Oct.

TURNING POINTS FOR 24.10.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE:

In Friday's trading, Nifty Future opened firm and made the day's high of 5131 but once again saw selling pressure at higher levels. It remained weak in the second session and made the day's low of 5038 and closed the day at 5054. The positive on an otherwise bearish day was that it did not break the previuos day's low. Nifty Future remained bearish mainly due to weekend consideration particularly in light of important meetings in Europe. On the EOD chart you will find that Nifty Future remains within a small range shown in yellow.

After our markets closed, Europe and US markets have closed firm (up by about 2%). This indicates likelyhood of a firm opening (Gap up?) tomorrow for us. One can consider going long above 5065 with stop loss of 500o. On higher side, it will find resistance at 5156-5185 region. As metioned previously, please do not remain short above 5185. Further up, we have resistance at 5225 and 5325. Caution is advised at higher levels in view of RBI meeting on Tuesday alongwith FNO settlement scheduled for the same day. Booking profits on long position may be a prudent thing to do.

Short position may be considered only below 5000 which appears unlikely for tomorrow.

As regards Index Options data, there has been increase in open interest of over 22 Lacs in strike price ranging from 5100 - 5300 for Oct & Nov series. On the put side, the addition for current month series is subduded at just about 5 Lacs for strike price of 4800 & 5000 and for corresponding Nov series is about 7 Lacs. To me the considerable increase in Call side suggests the bias remains positive.

In view of clubbing of major events, volatility can be expected to be high and hence please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR WEEK ENDED 21.10.2011

NIFTY FUTURE WEEKLY

We ended the 11th week of trading within the range of 4700 - 5200, with much awaited breakout still not happening. The positive feature for the week was that it managed to do a higher top (though marginal) and higher bottom for the second week in a row. The week, saw trading range of 149 points (High 5162 and Low 5013) and closed at 5054. Another important feature is that MACD has given a buy signal on the weekly chart, for the first time after many weeks.

As indicated in my yesterday's post, I was quite hopeful of a positive action for today, but the same did not materialise. However, I remian optimistic to see the upward breakout happening next week - may be in celebration of Diwali.

Have a nice weekend!

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 21.10.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE:
In a surpirse move, Nifty Future opened weak on the back of Global cues and went down to make the day's low of 5033. In the 2nd half, it mustered enough strength to make the day's high of 5111 and closed the day at 5103. As Nifty Future closed near the top of the day, we have a long lower shadow which indicates bullishness. It seems, Nifty Future just took a breather to fill the gap left on the previous day and secondly it did not break this weeks' low of 5013 makes me optimistic that we may see the Nifty Future filling the Gap at 5300 - may be to celebrate the Diwali festival. On the EOD chart, I have highlighted the past 7 days movement which appears as if the stage is set for Nifty Future breaking the 5200 barrier.

For tomorrow, one can consider going long with stop loss of 5065. On the higher side, we have resistance at 5165-5185 region and then short covering may also come to the aid of bulls. It may be just a coinidence that we are scheduled for FNO settlement next tuesday (and not Thursday as usual due to Diwali). This leaves only 3 more trading sessions to FNO settlement. I would add that it may not be prudent to remain short once Nifty Future trades above 5185.

Short position may be considered below 5065 with stop loss of 5120. On the down side, it will find support at 5000 and 4975.

My optimism also stems from the Index Option data, which shows that on the call side, there is an increase in open interest of 43.51 Lacs in the strike price ranging from 5000 to 5200. On the put side, there is no significant increase except that of 4500 strike price which has increase of 13.76 Lacs.
Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.
With Best Wishes,
Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 20.10.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE:
In today's trading, Nifty Future opened with a small gap and maintained upward bias during the day. It made the day's low of 5070 and high of 5158. It closed the day near the high of the day at 5154. You will observe on the 30 min chart that Nifty Future has made the day's top on the median line of the Andrew's Pitchfork. With today's move, we are just at the threshold of crossing the 5180 level and go higher up, to fill the gap at 5300. Will the market oblige by doing what is much awaited?
For Nifty Future to go up and fill the 5300 gap, it has to cross 5180 and 5225 levels. Once 5225 is crossed the possibility of this gap getting filled increases manyfold. As usual I would not recommed the adventure of buying at higher levels, as without the particpation of Reliance & Infy acheiving this feat looks unlikely and more importantly there is divergence on the 30 min chart. In the event Nifty Future is not able to keep today's momentum then we have the risk of double top too and the fall thereafter can be sharp. In these circumstance those holding out of the money call option should tread with caution, as time to FNO settlement is running out fast.
Short position may be taken below 5125 with stop loss of 5170. On the down side, it will find support at 5085 - 5040 and 5000. Fall will accelerate below 5000.
Today's Index Option data shows decrease in open interest in call's of 5000 & 5100 strike and there has been some increase (13 Lacs) in strike price ranging from 5200 - 5400. Whereas, on the put side. there has been huge increase (24.88 Lacs) in open interest for strike price of 5100 and about 16 L in stike price ranging from 4800 - 5000. As usual, I wonder why would somone pay for such a huge quanitity of Puts unless he is sure of making money as and when the market falls!
Trade with caution and don't forget to put a suitable STOP LOSS.
With Best Wishes,
Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 19.10.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE:
On the back of weak Global cues, NIfty Future too opened with a downside gap and in a day of narrow trading made a high of 5064 & a low of 5013. It finally closed the day at 5054. The day's candle shows a lower shadow which suggests buying at lower level.
Considering the lower shadow and some improvement in US markets, we may see some up move tomorrow - at least to fill the gap left today. One can consider going long with stop loss of 5000. On the higher side, it will find resistance at 5100 - 5125 and if we manage to break 5125 we may once again come to the previous resistance level of 5165 - though this looks quite unlikely.
Fresh short position may be taken only below 5000.
As regards the Index Options data, there has been considerable (11.86Lacs) reduction in the open interest for the strike price of 5100 whereas on the call side there has been increase (7.04 Lacs) of open interest in the strike price of 5000. Not much of guidance except that there may be liquidation of 5000 calls around the resistance levels indicated above.
Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.
With Best Wishes,
Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 18.10.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE:

In today's trading, Nifty Future opened with a small gap but could not sustain at higher levels right from the beginning, mainly due to Reliance giving up major gains. During the day, Nifty Future made a high of 5162 in the early trades and maintained downward bias for the rest of the day. In the second session, it made a low of 5081 and bounced back to close the day at 5116.

At the time of writing this post, US & Eurpoe are trading about a 1% lower and this may further dampen the sentiments for us tomorrow. One can consider going short below 5080 with a stop loss of 5125. On the down side, it will find support at 5000 and major support at 4940. One can consider going long at 4940 with stop loss of 4900 for a bounce.

As regards the Index Option data, there has been considerable increase in the open interest of 5100 to 5300 strike price, where as increase in open interest has been much lower. Thus possiblity of Nifty Future crossing the 5200 levels in the coming days can not be ruled out as yet.

With these contradicitons, get ready for a volatile trading day tomorrow. And last but not the least, please do not forget to use STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 17.10.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE :

Last week, Nifty Future saw the best close in 10 weeks of being range bound. This brings us close to the higher level of the trading range of 4700 -5200 during the 10 weeks. As everything looks good around us, there is nothing to suggest that we may not clear the hurdle.

Though we have always referred to the trading range as 5200 on the upper side, I would like to caution the readers that 5223 was an open=High on 10th August and hence I would advise to keep the level of 5225 as the reference point above which filling the gap region of 5234 and 5325 becomes a distinct possibility.

Considering the close on Friday, we can expect a strong opening tomorrow. As a rule I prefer to avoid buying when there is a gap up opening. As such, Iooking at the negative divergence on the 30 min chart, I am not too enthused to go for buying in this critical zone. Existing long positions may be trailed with stop loss of 5080.

On the higher side, 5185 and 5225 will provide resistance. One can consider going short at 5225 with stop loss of 5260. On the down side, we have support at 5080 and 5000.

In the unlikely event of a weak opening, one can consider going short below 5080 with stop loss of 5110. On the down side, it will have support at 5000 and strong support at 4920.

As regards the Index Options data, there has been call buying up to 5400 Strike Price, but the same has not been very aggressive. As against this, the Puts have seen considerable increase of open interest in the strike price ranging from 5200 to 4800. This too suggest that down side may not yet be over.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher,

TURNING POINTS FOR WEEKENDED 14.10.2011

NIFTY FUTURE WEEKLY

Last week was the 10the week, when Nifty Future remained within the 4700-5200 range. The only difference this time is that we have the best close near the higher end of the range, with lot of promise that we should cross theis hurdle next week and fill the gap at 5300 !

Looking at the last week's close, it is quite likely that we fill the last of the major up side gaps at 5300. However, for this to materialise, we must clear the hurdle at 5225.

Do enjoy the ride on the up side, but be nimble footed to get out of the train, if for any reason NIfty Future does not sustain above 5225.

As Reliance and Infosys have been key drivers of this up move, please note that 880 for Reliance and 2835 for Infosys remain strong resistance levels.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 14.10.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE:
In today's trading, Nifty Future opened firm but could not sustain higher levels despite two attempts. During the day, it made high of 5140 and low of 5066. It ended the day @ 5074. While close near the day's low is a matter of concern, we have to give allowance that a correction after a strong up move is quite expected. On the attached 30 min chart you will find that Trend line (in Red) drawn yesterday did provide the resistance.

For tomorrow, we are poised to break the trend line (in Blue) below 5060, which may take Nifty Future further down. One can consider going short below 5060 with stop loss of 5100. On the down side, it will find support at 5000 and 4950. I would continue to suggest that, at higher levels fresh long positions are best avoided.

Tomorrow - the last trading day for the week is once again important from the closing point of view. I would consider close below 5000 will once again increase the down side risk for the next week. After all, we are in the 10th week of the sideways movement in the range of 4700-5200.

As regards the Index Option data, there has been considerable increase (28.08 Lacs)in the Open Interest of Strike Price ranging from 5100 to 5300. On the other hand there has been increase in open interest (18.70 Lacs) for strike price ranging from 5100 - 4700. Considering the weak close and heavy build up in total open interest in Puts, possibility of further down side remains open.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 13.10.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN
NIFTY FUTURE:
Yesterday, Nifty Future opened firm and continued its up move but corrected sharply without breaking previuous day's high to make the low for the day at 5001. Thereafter it saw a sharp upmove, to make the day's high of 5119 and closed firm at 5113. It finally filled one of the gaps. On the 30 min chart, I have drawn a trend line which has provided resistance at yesterday's high and may continue for today unless it is broken on the upside in the early session.
For today, long positions are best avoided as there is a good possibility of a correction after having filled the gap yesterday. Existin long positions may be kept with a stop loss of 5070. Fresh short position may be taken below 5070 with stop loss of 5120. On the down side, it will find support at 5000 and 4920.
In the event Nifty Future continues the up move, next resistance will be at 5165 and 5225.
Once again, Index Option data provides an interesting information wherein there is an increase of 72.17 lacs in Puts for the strike price ranging from 4600 to 5100. As against this, there has been increase of just 12.88 lacs Calls for the strike price of 5300 & 5400. Interestingly, there has been considerable reduction (19.52 Lacs) in open interest of Calls for the strike price ranging from 4700 to 5200. To me the huge built up in Puts does suggest that market should go down - thats the only time the guys who sold the calls and bought the puts yesterday will make money.
So, if you find merit in this argument, please trade accordingly - but in any case don't trade without using the STOP LOSS.
With Best Wishes,
Ketan Asher.

TA Workshop @ SURAT

I will be conducting a 1 day workshop on Technical Analysis
on behalf of ICICI DIRECT'S Centre For Financial Learning
@ Surat on 16.10.2011. If interested, please follow the link:
https://secure.icicidirect.com/NewSiteTrading/FinancialEducation/PremClassRoomProg.asp
Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 12.10.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE:

In today's trading, Nifty Future opened with a gap and made the day's high of 5055 in early trades. Thereafter, Nifty Future maintained downward bias for the rest of the day and made the day's low of 4970. It finally closed weak at 4982. It may be interesting to see the 30 min chart where I have showed the Resistance level with the help of Andrew's Pitchfork. Please note that the gap area is between 5062 and 5113 and today's high has shied away from entering the gap area.

Tomorrow should be an interesting day, with announcement of quarterly results from Infosys, where not only the results, even the guidance too will be watched keenly by the market players.Though today's close is weak, it has not left much guidance for what to expect tomorrow. It will be Infosys results that will set the tone.

I would suggest going short below 4970 with stop loss of 5010. On the down side, it will find support at 4920 and strong support around 4870. As such, I would suggest not to get too bearish until 4870 is broken. In the event 4870 is broken, we are back to testing the 4700 levels.

Today's option data makes an interesting reading as there has been considerable increase (52.13 Lacs) in open interest of Strike Price starting from 5000 to 5400. On the other side, open interest in Put options is not so aggressive with major increase in Strike Price of 4600 (7.08 Lacs) and 4800 (5.07) being noteworthy. This is in complete contrast to what we saw yesterday and this information must be factored into for tomorrow's trading. I would read it as markets going down after the reults and take support around 4870 and then continue the up move to fill the gaps at 5100 and even 5300 over the next few days?? Well this is just a conjecture that comes to mind and all depends on what Infosys has to announce tomorrow. So stay tuned but don't get too bearish as long as Nifty Future remains above 4870 level.

One can consider going long above 5020 with stop loss of 4970. On the higher side, it will face resistance at 5065 and 5165. It would be prudent not to remain short above 5065.

Whatever may be your view, please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 11.10.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE :
In today's trading, after initial hesitation, Nifty Future broke the level of 4920 and maintained a steady up move for the rest of the day to make the day's high of 5004 and closed the day at 4994. On the EOD chart the close has been just at the Median line of the Andrew's Pitchfork, suggesting that move above today's high should take Nifty Future to 5110 to fill the gap.
While everything looks set for a strong opening (thanks to the up move in US/European markets, I would like to draw your attention to the rising wedge drawn on the 30 min chart. In the unlikely event of a weak opening any fall below 4950 will accelerate the fall and hence all long positions may be held with a stop loss of 4950.
We are now nearing the higher end of the trading range of 5200 - 4700 and hence caution is advised for long positions. For tomorrow, I would not advise long positions at higher levels. Short positions may be taken below 4950 with stop loss of 5000. On the down side, it will have support at 4910 and 4870.
Option data is quite interesting as there has been considerable reduction of Open Interest in 4900 & 5200 Strike Price. As regards the Puts, there has been increase in open interest of 27.18 lacs in 4900 & 5000 strike price. This data does suggest that we could be in for some surprise in a day or two, otherwise why would someone buy such a huge quantity of Puts? If you feel the smart money is buying the Puts, do join them with a small quantity for you too!
While enjoy the ride till it lasts, but don't forget to put your STOP LOSS orders.
With Best Wishes,
Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 10.10.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE :

Last Friday, saw a good bounce with a gap up opening, but saw selling pressure at higher levels. While it managed to fill the gap left on 3rd Oct., it left an unfilled gap for the day. During the day it made a high of 4939 in the early session but could not sustain at higher levels and in the second session made a low of 4873 and closed the day at 4899 - closer to the day's low but near to the high of the weeks' candle and thus giving confusing signals.

For tomorrow, one can consider going short below 4870 with stop loss of 4900. On the down side, it will find support at 4830 and 4800. Break of 4800 will once again lead to panic like situation with Nifty Future having to decide when to break 4700 levels.

For Nifty Future to go up, it has to once again cross the resistance level of 4920. In that event, one can consider going long above 4920 with stop loss of 4870. On the higher side, it has to cross 4980, which will then make it possible to make an attempt to fill the gap left on 22nd Sept. at 5100 levels. While going up to 4980 may be possible, but crossing this level on the first attempt looks a bit difficult.

As mentioned in the weekly post, selling Calls of higher strike price (particularly of Strike Price of 5000+) at resistance levels, looks a better option then to buy Puts as time value will favour the call writer.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR WEEKENDED 07.10.2011

NIFTY FUTURE WEEKLY

The week ended with a long lower shadow but made a lower top / lower bottom. The truncated week, saw a range of 213 points (High 4939 and Low 4726). Much of the gains were done on the last day of the week, when Nifty Future opened with a gap to make the week's high, which helped it close the week at 4899.

The only inference I would make is that there is strong support emerging at 4700 levels but the fact that Nifty Future made lower top /lower bottom continues to remain a concern for more downside. Secondly, for the past 8 weeks, Nifty Future has been trading within 505 range (High 5223 & Low 4718) resulting in a flag pattern. Any break below 4700 makes it possible for Nifty Future to test lower levels.

There has been considerable build up in put options till about 4300 strike price. However, downside bias has made the premiums very high and time element may make purchase of Puts not very lucrative unless 4700 is broken. In these circumstances, better alternative is to sell calls of higher strike price at resistance levels.

Have a nice weekend!

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 07.10.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE:
In Wednesday's trading, after a firm opening, Nifty Future did make an attempt to go up but was able to go up to the day's high of 4844 and then in the second session market showed a sharp correction and made the day's low 4747 and finally closed the volatile day at 4769. The only positive feature to a volatile day was that Nifty Future has not yet broken the previous low of 4700.
In the two trading sessions after the closure of our markets on Wednesday, US and European markets haave showed a sharp bounce. While we may follow this bounce, we must be open to the idea of breaking 4700 some time soon and take the bullish calls with this perspective.
For tomorrow, long positions may be taken with stop loss of 4740. On the higher side, it will find resistance at 4820 and major resistance at 4920.
I would not advise to go short at lower levels and instead wait for Nifty Future go higher up to create short position.
Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.
With Best Wishes,
Ketan Asher.

TURRNING POINTS FOR 05.10.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE :
After a weak opening, but without breaking the previous day's low, Nifty Future maintained an up move and did manage to break the previous day's high and made the day's high of 4885. However, in the second session, after a weak opening in Europe and Moody's downgrde of SBI, Nifty Future lost over 100 points in one hour and made the day's low of 4725. I have identified the support and resistance levels for the day on the attached 30 min chart. The day closed at 4775. To see the positive in an otherwise negative tending day - is that on the EOD chart, Nifty Future has closed above the trend line and we have not yet broken 4700 level done earlier.
For tomorrow, one can consider going long above 4805 with stop loss of 4775. On the higher side, it will find hurdle at 4810 and stronger resistance at 4920.
I am not suggesting to short at lower levels as I expect Nifty Future will find support at 4680. Instead it will make better sense to go short at higher levels of 4920 with a suitable stop loss.
As regards the shorts, I do not favour the same at lower levels and hence am not suggesting to go short at break of 4700 as 4680 may provide support.
Build up in open interest of Call option of 4700 to 5300 strike price continues. As regards the put option, major action is in the strike price of 4300 and 4500.
Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.
With Best Wishes,
Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 04.10.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE :
On the back of weak Global cues, Nifty Future too opened with a downside gap. During the day, it made a low of 4813 and high of 4879. An essentially sideways trading day closed at 4858. The positive for the day was that although Nofty Future opened below 4900, it did not precipitate into a big fall and as such, today's EOD candle once again indicates a higher bottom and also a long lower shadow. What is now important for tomorrow is that we must quickly fill in the gap left in today's opening session.
For tomorrow, one can consider going long above 4870 with stop loss of 4835. On the higher side, it will find resistance at 4920 and 5020. It is advisable not to remain short above 5020, as there is every possibility that we will fill up the gap at 5100 & even 5300 over the coming few days.
Fresh short position should now be considered only below 4835 with stop loss of 4870 though to me it looks unlikely for tomorrow. Ideally, one can consider going short/buy puts when Nifty Future fills the upside gap, particulalry if it manages to fill 5300.
As regards the Index Options data, open interest in Put option continues to surge, whereas increase in open interest on the call side is more modest. In absence of any clear direction of the market, I do not find much merit in buying puts at the current level and high prices.
Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.
With Best Wishes,
Ketan Asher.
PS: TP GRID now includes data for DJIA, S&P 500 and USD GOLD.

TURNING POINTS FOR 03.10.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NOTE: TP GRID NOW INCLUDES DOW, S & P 500 AND USD GOLD.
NIFTY FUTURE:
In Friday's trading, Nifty Future did not break the high of previous day and there after during the second session, maintained a downward bias. As shown on the chart, it closed below the channel and near the low (4920) of the day. Once again it did not break the 4900 level and closed @ 4934.
Considering the weakness in US markets, we too may see a weak opening. However, I would advise caution at going short below 4900 as Nifty Future may find support at 4865. The weakness will accelerate only if it trades below 4865. In that event it will get trend line support at 4775. I do not expect it to go below this level tomorrow - that is if at all it trades below 4865.
One can consider going long at 4775 with stop loss of 4750. On the higher side, it will find resistance at 4920 and 5000.
In the event 4865 holds, one can consider going long above 4920 with stop loss as the low of the day. On the higher side 5000 will provide resistance and it is advisable not to remain short when Nifty Future trades above 5040.
Index Option data suggests lot of build up in Put Options upto 4400 strike price and Call options upto 5400 strike price (Puts still outnumber the Calls). As we remain in a sideways market, I am not recommending buying options, as without a clear direction of the market, time value will be to your disadvantage.
Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.
With Best Wishes,
Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR WEEKENDED 30.09.2011

IMPORTANT NOTE: In view of the Dow and S&P500 now getting traded on NSE, I have included them in the TP Grid alongwith USD GOLD. Please note that all these rates are as traded in US markets. Trust this will help more readers, to be on the right side of the market.

NIFTY FUTURE WEEKLY:

Last week was the 8th week after the triangle was broken on the downside. We still have no clear direction except that the downward bias continues. During these 8 weeks, Nifty Future contined to remain within the range of 5200 and 4700. Last weeks' candle made a lower top/lower bottom and ended the week as a doji only to add to the confusion.

In light of the above, I would maintain downward bias below 4900 with supports at 4700 levels. Once 4680 level is broken we will have support at 4500 and 4450.

On the higher side, I would maintain upward bias above 5070 with good possiblity that we will have strong momentum to fill the gaps at 5100 and 5300.

Have a nice weekend!

Ketan Asher.