NIFTY FUTURE WEEKLY NIFTY FUTURE : Last week, made up of just 3 trading sessions closed on a weak note particularly after the sharp bounce on 13th from the support level of 5750. During the week, Nifty Future made lower top / lower bottom for the first time - after a sharp rise from the low of 5357 in the previous 3 weeks. Nifty Future made a range of 197 points (High 5948 & Low 5751) and closed at 5834 - a doji indicating indecisiveness. Infosys with 10% fall contributed the most to the weakness and to the sentiment too. For Infosys, 52 Week mid point is 3005 and hence is now at a crucial point for further fall and the consequential effect on Nifty Future.
Another important level being referred by me is the 5800 level - below which Nifty Future will once again come out of Channel on the weekly chart and 5750 level for the monthly chart. On 13th (Wednesday) Nifty Future saw a sharp bounce of 197 points from 5750 level (much to my surprise), but most of the gains got wiped out in the next trading day on Friday. The market is now facing the predicament similar to Indian cricket team with Sachin (Infosys) out. Will Nifty Future still manage to go above 6000? Looks very unlikely, if Infosys starts trading below 3005. Though we have many supports on the way down - with major being 5500-5555 level, couple of more weak results and all can fall down.
On the attached chart you will observe that trend line in Red has provided support almost 5 times. With weak results if it breaks down this time at 5300 level and we go down further. For those who believe in the market practice of Open = Low prices being achieved at some time in future, I would like to indicate that Infosys has a Op = Lo = 2246 and Reliance has Op = Lo = 790. If you believe that these prices appearing on the Futures chart will happen sometime in foreseeable Future, than we have Sachin (Infosys) and Dhoni (Reliance) both getting weak. As I have not calculated the impact of these prices on Nifty Future, I leave it to you to decide what would be the Nifty Future level when the above prices of Infosys and Reliance are actually achieved. (Forewarned is forearmed - isn't it?) Unlike the 64th week (marked on the chart) 128th week did not see much downfall - but still I would say it was eventful in more ways than one. First the sharp bounce of 197 points (the week's range) without any good reason and Secondly, weakness (on the very next trading day) due to Infosys results which may leave its impact for the next few weeks at least.
Have a Nice Weekend! Ketan Asher. PS: Too much cricket around has started influencing my post too!
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