TURNING POINTS FOR WEEKENDED 29.04.2011

NIFTY FUTURE WEEKLY

The week that went by, ended on a negative note and also formed lower top. The weekly candle on the attached chart has a long lower shadow, suggesting that there was buying at lower levels. However, this should not be given much credence, as this was formed by a freak trade that formed low of 5393 in the opening session of 26th April. Moreover, Nifty Future has once again closed outside the channel - suggesting weakness. For the past 4 weeks, we remain in the narrow range of 6000 and 5700. Thus, Nifty Future does not give any clear trend for now.

For the next week, Nifty future has support at 5700 being the mid point on the TP grid for Annual High & Low (indicated daily in the TP Grid). Weakness will accelerate when Nifty Future trades below 5700. If that happens the next major support will be at 5555.

On the higher side, Nifty Future will be once again inside the channel when it trades above 5880. However, it will gather momentum for the upside only when it trades above 5940.

With results season over and Infosys and Reliance both being weak, we have to wait for RBI credit policy to provide the trigger for the market direction.

Have a nice weekend!

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 29.04.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE:

Last day of the FNO settlement ended on a weak note. After opening weak, Nifty Future drifted lower to make the day's low at 5776 (High at 5861) and closed near the low of the day at 5784.

We are now close to the 200 DMA at 5758 and swing mid point at 5763. It is quite likely that Nifty Future may take support at these levels and take a bounce. For today, one can consider going long when Nifty Future trades above 5800 (crossing of the trend line on 30 min chart) with stop loss of 5760. On the higher side, it will find resistance at 5820 and 5865.

Short positions may be considered only if Nifty Future trades below 5760, which seems unlikely at least on the initial days of the new series and that too it happens to be the last day of the week which will be important for the weekly candle. Moreover, Dow continues to make new high, helping keep the sentiment cheerful.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options decreased to 0.79 as against 0.83 on the previous trading day.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 28.04.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE :

After a firm opening today, Nifty Future could not sustain at higher levels and remained weak for the better part of the day. As it did not break 5800 levels, it made failed efforts at lower levels to go up. During the day Nifty Future made high of 5905 and low of 5820. It finally closed weak at 5837.

Considering that tomorrow is FNO settlement day, higher volatility should be expected. As Nifty Future did not break 5800 levels today, one can go long with strict stop loss of 5800. On the higher side, it will find resistance at 5890 and 5920. One should not remain short above 5920/5940 as the next resistance will be at 6000.

Short positions may be considered below 5800 with stop loss of 5840. On the down side, it will find support at 5760 and 5700. Considering the strength shown by US markets, it is unlikely that we will see Nifty Future trading below 5800.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options decreased to 0.83 as against 0.96 on the previous day.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 27.04.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE:

In today's trading, Nifty Future opened weak with a freak trade of Open = Low = 5393 and remained just below 5800 and sideways till about mid session. In the second half it gained strength (once again helped by short cutting) and made the day's high of 5908 and closed the day @ 5887 - near the high of the day. In spite of a sharp rise - from the day's low, we continued with lower top and lower bottom for one more day.

For tomorrow, one can consider going long with stop loss of 5850. On the higher side, it will find resistance at 5920. It is not advisable to remain short, once 5941 is crossed, as in all likely hood it will achieve the target of 6000 (given on 5.4.2011 when Nifty Future made open = high = 6000).

Though Reliance and Infosys appear weak, considering the way the market shot up from the day's low today, it is better not to go short unless Nifty Future trades below 5800.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options decreased to 0.96 as against 1.07 yesterday.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 26.04.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE :

In today's trading, Nifty Future saw a weak opening as Reliance opened weak. During the day, Nifty Future saw a narrow range of 50 points with a high of 5925 and low of 5876 and closed at 5887. The significant point was that it made a lower top and lower bottom and closed near the low of the day but managed to remain above the channel line on the weekly chart which is now at 5875 (for last week it was at 5850).

For tomorrow, break below today's low of 5875 would take us back below the channel line on the weekly chart. One can consider going short below 5850 with stop loss of 5880. On the down side, it will find support at 5815 and 5760.

Nifty Future will gain strength above 5940 and hence this should be considered as stop loss for short positions.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options decreased to 1.07 as against 1.21 on the previous trading day.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 21.04.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE:

After opening with an upside gap, Nifty Future remained sideways in the early hours and thereafter it dipped to fill the gap and in the last hour, sharply moved up and once again short covering helped the bulls. The day's high, low and close were 5875, 5767, and 5871 respectively. The fact that Nifty Future closed near the top of the day, augurs well for tomorrow - at least for the opening session.

For tomorrow, one can consider going long if Nifty Future trades above 5875, with a stop loss of 5850. On the higher side, it will find trend line resistance at 5940. In the event this level is crossed, one should be ready to see the 6000 levels once again. While Nifty Future does look strong from the time it took support at 5703 yesterday, one needs to see this in context of two key results viz. Reliance & TCS, scheduled for tomorrow. In case of disappointment from any one of them may be good reason for Nifty Future to take a sharp U turn.

Short positions should be considered only below 5800 with stop loss of 5850. On the downside, it will find support at 5760 and 5700.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options increased marginally to 0.93 as against 0.90 yesterday.

Considering the high volatility these days, please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 20.04.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE :

In yesterday's trading, after a weak opening, Nifty Future took support at 5703 but remained volatile during the day. It made a high of 5781 and in the second session made one more attempt to go down. As it did not break 5700 it closed in the green for the day at 5760.

For today, one can consider going long above 5780, with a stop loss of 5740. On the higher side, it will find tough resistance at 5825-5850 level. If it is not able to breach this resistance and comes down - may be post Reliance/TCS results tomorrow, there is a good possibility that next time it will break 5700 level.

Short positions may be considered only at 5825-5850 level with Stop loss of 5871.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options decreased to 0.90 as against 0.94 on the previous trading day.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 19.04.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE :

The week started on a promising note and made a high of 5921 for the day but thereafter suddenly fell and by end of the trading session, broke both the important support levels of 5800 and 5750 to make the day's low of 5727 and closed at 5736 - near the low of the day.

Nifty Future has closed just below the 200 DMA of 5739.

At the time of writing this post, World markets are trading lower by about 2% and there is a good possibility that we may see a weak opening too.

Tomorrow, it is not advisable to sell in case of gap down opening as 5700 and 5680 (trend line in Blue on the EOD chart attached) may provide support. In the event this is breached, we have good support at 5555 and 5500. At this level, it will fill the gaps left on the way up. As such, this level can be considered a safe level to initiate buy position - for a bounce.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options decreased to 0.94 as against 1.04 on the previous trading day.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 18.04.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE :

Having completed a short week of 3 trading days which ended as a doji, we now have a 4 day trading week. Last Friday, Nifty Future closed at 5834, near the low for the day at 5821.

Tomorrow, if Nifty Future makes an attempt to go up, one can consider going short with a stop loss of 5875. In case of a weak opening, it would be better to consider fresh short positions only when Nifty Future trades below 5800 with stop loss of 5835. On the down side, it will find support at 5750 and 5700.

In the event Infosys does not go below 3000, fresh long positions may be considered above 5875 with stop loss of 5850. On the higher side it will find resistance at 5940 and 5980.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options increased to 1.04 as against 0.95 on the previous trading day.

Please do not trade without Stop Loss.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR WEEKENDED 15.04.2011

NIFTY FUTURE WEEKLY NIFTY FUTURE :

Last week, made up of just 3 trading sessions closed on a weak note particularly after the sharp bounce on 13th from the support level of 5750. During the week, Nifty Future made lower top / lower bottom for the first time - after a sharp rise from the low of 5357 in the previous 3 weeks. Nifty Future made a range of 197 points (High 5948 & Low 5751) and closed at 5834 - a doji indicating indecisiveness. Infosys with 10% fall contributed the most to the weakness and to the sentiment too. For Infosys, 52 Week mid point is 3005 and hence is now at a crucial point for further fall and the consequential effect on Nifty Future.

Another important level being referred by me is the 5800 level - below which Nifty Future will once again come out of Channel on the weekly chart and 5750 level for the monthly chart. On 13th (Wednesday) Nifty Future saw a sharp bounce of 197 points from 5750 level (much to my surprise), but most of the gains got wiped out in the next trading day on Friday. The market is now facing the predicament similar to Indian cricket team with Sachin (Infosys) out. Will Nifty Future still manage to go above 6000? Looks very unlikely, if Infosys starts trading below 3005. Though we have many supports on the way down - with major being 5500-5555 level, couple of more weak results and all can fall down.

On the attached chart you will observe that trend line in Red has provided support almost 5 times. With weak results if it breaks down this time at 5300 level and we go down further. For those who believe in the market practice of Open = Low prices being achieved at some time in future, I would like to indicate that Infosys has a Op = Lo = 2246 and Reliance has Op = Lo = 790. If you believe that these prices appearing on the Futures chart will happen sometime in foreseeable Future, than we have Sachin (Infosys) and Dhoni (Reliance) both getting weak. As I have not calculated the impact of these prices on Nifty Future, I leave it to you to decide what would be the Nifty Future level when the above prices of Infosys and Reliance are actually achieved. (Forewarned is forearmed - isn't it?) Unlike the 64th week (marked on the chart) 128th week did not see much downfall - but still I would say it was eventful in more ways than one. First the sharp bounce of 197 points (the week's range) without any good reason and Secondly, weakness (on the very next trading day) due to Infosys results which may leave its impact for the next few weeks at least.

Have a Nice Weekend! Ketan Asher. PS: Too much cricket around has started influencing my post too!

TURNING POINTS FOR 15.04.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE :

Wednesday's trading opened with a downside gap when Nifty Future made a low of 5751 and bounced back with vengeance (for no apparent reason) to make the day's high at 5948 and closed the day firm at 5938. On the EOD chart you will find that we are now close to the trend line which provided resistance last week @ 6000. If you recall, this level was reached in the opening session when Nifty Future made Open = High = 6000. For Nifty Future to gain further momentum, it has to cross this level of 6000.

Tomorrow, before the market opens, Infosys results would be known and much will depend on the results. There is additional risk in going long at current levels as Nifty Future will find further up move only if it manages to stay above 6000.

Considering the strength displayed by the market (for whatever reasons) it does not make sense to go short unless Nifty Future displays weakness. I would consider the first sing of weakness only when Nifty Future trades below 5835. If this happens one can go short with stop loss of 5875. On the down side, it will find support at 5800 and 5750 (important levels on the Monthly and weekly chart as mentioned earlier).

Put Call Ratio of Index Options decreased to 0.95 as against 1.02 on the previous trading day.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 13.04.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD NIFTY FUTURE :

On Monday, Nifty Future opened weak and maintained downward bias and made the day's high of 5849 and low of 5797 and closed weak too at 5804. Since the time our markets closed for a holiday, World markets have been trading weak and this should adversely affect the sentiment in out markets tomorrow - though Crude has been trading lower and that should nullify the effect to some extent. For tomorrow, one can consider going short below Monday's low of 5797 with stop loss of 5840. On the down side, it will find support at 5750 - 5731 (200 DMA) and 5700.

Considering week count given in the weekly report, long positions are best avoided at least for this week and long positions must be held with strict stop loss levels. Moreover, as mentioned earlier we will be once again out of the channel at 5800 and 5750 on the weekly and monthly charts respectively, and that could lead to continuation of the downward trend and also accelerate the down move. Filling of gap at 5500 would be the first good level to consider long positions for a bounce.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options decreased to 1.02 as against 1.11 on the previous trading day. Please do not forget to put stop loss as it may prove to be very expensive.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 11.04.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE :

Last week, Nifty Future closed near the low of the week - suggesting weak opening for tomorrow.

Long positions may be considered only when Nifty Future trades above 5900. On the higher side, it will find resistance at 5920 & 5940. It is advisable not to remain short above 5940, as it could go up to 6000.

Short positions may be considered below 5830 with stop loss of 5860. On the down side, it will find support at 5800 - 5750. Please note that both these levels are important as Nifty Future would be coming out of channels on weekly and monthly respectively. Thereafter, 5660 will be a key support level. As we have only 3 trading days,those holding Call Options must be careful as they have an inherent disadvantage due to fewer working days.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options remained almost unchanged at 1.11 as against 1.13 on the previous trading day.

I have made some markings on the weekly chart which indicates that next week could turn out to be an important one, hence please do not forget to use the STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR WEEKENDED 08.04.2011

NIFTY FUTURE WEEKLY

Last week began on a firm note and Nifty Future faced resistance at 6000 due to trend line coming from the previous top of 6349. The week saw a range of 168 points (High 6000 & Low 5832) and closed weak at 5855. The weekly candle represents shooting star which suggests bearishness ahead. The only positive for Nifty Future is that it has maintained higher top / higher bottom formation for 3rd week in a row.

Another important point to be noted is that, Nifty Future will be out of the channel (once again) on the weekly chart when it trades below 5800. This suggests continuation of the down trend .

We have a truncated week ahead in view of Tuesday and Thursday being market holidays. While we have the results season commencing next week, we have also to deal with the impact of high crude oil prices.

I have marked no. of weeks starting from the low of 2228 which suggests that we should have an eventful week ahead of us. Considering the trend line resistance at 6000 and the shooting star candle on the weekly chart, my bias remains negative. It is likely that Nifty Future should come down to fill the gap at 5500 levels on the EOD chart. I would change my view to positive, in the event 6000 is crossed on the upside - which looks difficult at least in the next (short) week.

Have a nice weekend!

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 08.04.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE:

After a weak opening, Nifty Future remained weak to make the day's low of 5881 - but did not break yesterday's low of 5580. That led to an attempt to move up after the mid session, but managed to make the day's high of 5932. In short, it made a lower top but did not make a lower bottom on the EOD chart. As mentioned yesteday, Trend Line on the EOD chart is providing strong support to Nifty Future and hopes for continuation of the up move. Tomorrow being last day of the week, should help us get a definite direction, not only for tomorrow but the weekly chart will provide suitable guidance for following week.

As indicated for today, short position should be considered below 5860 with stop loss of 5900. On the down side, it will find support at 5815 and 5760.

Please note that Nifty Future will be outside the channel once again - on the weekly chart when below 5800 and on the Monthly chart when below 5750. If this happens, weakness will accelerate.

Fresh long positions are best avoided. It must be mentioned here that short position may be trailed with stop loss of 5940. As once above this level, Nifty Future may try to scale up to 6000 once again.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options marginally increased to 1.13 as against 1.08 yesterday.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 07.04.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE :

After a stable opening, Nifty Future went up to make the day's high of 5971 but could not sustain at higher levels and came down to make the day's low of 5880. In the second session, Nifty Future remained in a narrow range and closed the day at 5911. After 11 day's, for the first time Nifty Future failed to make a new high but did not break previous day's low - so much for the strength. The day's candle too is a doji and hence leaving the option open for either side movement tomorrow.

On the EOD chart, you will find that Nifty Future has taken support at the trend line which suggests that the fall will accelerate below 5870. Accordingly, for tomorrow, short position may be considered below 5865 with stop loss of 5910. On the down side, it will find support at 5840 - 5760.

Long positions are best avoided until Nifty Future decisively crosses 6000 levels.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options decreased marginally to 1.08 as against 1.12 yesterday.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 06.04.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE :

In today's trading, Nifty Future opened with 6000 as Open = High and there after maintained downward bias to make the day's low at 5872. In the second half, it made an attempt to move up and closed at 5933 and leaving lower shadow on the EOD candle - thus leaving the possibility of further rise. Though the close for the day is negative as compared to the open, we must not forget that today was the 11th day when Nifty Future has not broken low of the previous day. Though Nifty Future looks stretched, it does indicate the strength in the market.

Having made the high today at 6000 and that too at the trend line resistance, one needs to be cautious at higher levels, until Nifty Future is decisively able to cross the 6000 levels and also the trend line on the EOD chart.

For tomorrow, one can consider going short below 5900 with stop loss of 5940. On the downside, it will find support at 5865 and 5840. Weakness will accelerate below 5840.

Fresh long position may be avoided as I am not too sure about the Nifty Future being able to cross 6000 level - trend line resistance, at least in the first attempt.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options remained almost unchanged at 1.12 as against 1.15 yesterday.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 05.04.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE :

After a firm opening and after making the day's low at 5850 in the first hour, continued its upward journey to make the day's high of 5955 and closed the day firm at 5943. In all probability, it should continue its firm trend today to test its next important target of 6000.

Considering the strength displayed by the market, one can continue long position with stop loss of 5900. As is being mentioned, 6000 is an important level to decide if there is some more up side left - or healthy correction (rather much needed) will start?

Short position may be considered at 6000 with stop loss of 6050. On the down side, it will find support at 5900 and 5865. In case of weak opening, one can consider going short below 5900. On the down side, it will find support at 5865 and 5815.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options decreased to 1.15 as against 1.30 on the previous trading day.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 04.04.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE :

After a firm opening and making a new top, Nifty Future remained in narrow range of 48 points - High 5885 and Low 5837. It closed the day at 5861 - a doji indicating indecision. We are currently facing resistance at 2.618 level of the last down swing on the 30 min chart.

As shown on the EOD chart, we will decisively clear this resistance only when above 5900 to face the next resistance at 5940 and then the last significant resistance at 6000. Once we close above 6000, there is a good possibility of crossing previous top of 6210 and head for a new top.

Considering the strength shown by World markets, we may see a firm opening. Long positions may be considered only above 5900 with stop loss of 5860. On the way up, 5940 and 6000 will provide resistance.

Short position may be considered below 5860 with stop loss of 5900. On the down side, we have supports at 5830 - 5800 and 5760.

The important thing for market would be to decide if it is able to go above 6000 this week or correct itself to 5500 and fill the gaps left on the way up.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR WEEKENDED 01.04.2011

NIFTY FUTURE WEEKLY

INDIA ROCKS!

and so do the markets. Nifty Future Monthly as well as Weekly candle closed firm. The Monthly candle closed inside the channel which was broken last month after being 20 months inside it. We are now at the striking distance from the last significant hurdle at 5970. Or simply put close above 6000 will make room for retesting the previous levels and may be even crossing it.

The things that could puncture all this feel good feeling could be the fact that having finished with the World Cup Finals, media attention will revert to the filing of charge sheet in 2G Scam and other not so good factors like Inflation, Crude Oil etc..... Technically, while the close on the monthly and weekly charts have been strong, MACD on the weekly chart has not yet cut the trigger line and hence possibility of a Nifty Future getting bearish once again if it trades below 5675 can not be ruled out. Secondly, while Nifty Future weekly chart has higher bottoms, it has not yet formed a higher top, which happens only when it trades above 6210 - and is still far. Lastly, if DOW starts going down after making double top, we could also get affected. While the initial numbers for Auto sales have been encouraging, one needs to wait and see if the bottom line too have been able to keep pace. Enjoy the Good Times but don't forget to protect the profits.

Ketan Asher.