NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE :
One more day when Nifty Future made a new high and also closed firm. You would recall that yesterday I had given maths for Nifty Future and had indicated that yesterday's high could probably be the top. It seems the maths in the market is not leaving me and I have one more day to give maths lesson - which will also explain why market did not stop at yesterday's high and has exceeded that level.
Today Nifty Spot has given some more maths which is as follows:
Previous top was : 5549.80
Less: recent bottom : 5348.90 + (200.90 X 2.618 = 525.96) = 5874.86
This is how close level of accuracy such a widely traded market can come to and also explains to a large extent why my expectation of market top went wrong.
In view of the above, I continue to maintain that we are quite near the top leaving aside few points more if market opens strong tomorrow. While writing this I would hasten to add that this is my view with whatever limited knowledge/tools that I have at my disposal. Moreover Reliance giving support to index while catching up with the overall market continues to be open. Hence one need not go short first thing tomorrow, until market gives some indication or one is ready to sell future and buy 5900/6000 call depending on ones risk profile and is willing to wait till the end of the settlement without getting panicky or loosing patience. Alternatively, as suggested yesterday, one can consider buying 5500/5600 put which were available at the end of the session for Rs. 15/21.50 respectively.
The best and safe strategy would be to sell delivery based and wait for the correction to buy.
Nifty Future going below 5770 will be the first sign of market getting ready for correction and if the overall market looks weak one can consider going short with strict stop loss of 5800. On the down side 5725 may offer trend line support.
Though not related, I would like to add that we are in the age of Automated Trading, where the transactions are executed with predefined formulas and hence when down side momentum starts, the machines will calculate faster/emotionless way than a normal human being and this will also be supported by Newton's law, hence ordinary investors have to guard his interest a bit more carefully.
Put Call Ratio of Index Options marginally increased to 1.02 as against 0.92 yesterday.
Whatever may be your view, please don't trade without STOP LOSS.
With Best Wishes,
Ketan Asher.
P.S: Lets hope today is the last day for maths lesson, as it is making the post very lengthy and adding to the delay.
No comments:
Post a Comment