TURNING POINTS FOR 01.10.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
HISTORY CHECK : IN PAST 10 YEARS - 4 BULL MONTHS & 6 BEAR MONTHS
NIFTY FUTURE :

After a lacklustre opening, Nifty Future remained weak for better part of the day and made a low of 5963 (Oct Future 5985), but in the last hour it made a sharp up move to make a high of 6035 (Oct Future 6047) making it obvious that the up move was a result of FNO settlement. As such, today was a quarterly close which has happened on a bullish note. (More on Quarterly chart over the weekend).

Considering that we got an up move only in the last hour, the same remains suspect whether it will continue for tomorrow. I would advise going short at higher levels with a strict stop loss of 6070 or better still 6100. On lower side, it will find support at 5965 - 5949 and 5910. I would advise no long positions for tomorrow, as it will be better to confirm whether there is steam left and get a better view next week. Tomorrow being last day of the week, close below 6000 should indicate weakness ahead - not to forget the indications given in the history check above.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options decreased to 0.95 as against 1.19 yesterday.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher,

TURNING POINTS FOR 30.09.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE :

Though Nifty Future opened firm this morning, it could not sustain at higher (High of 6075) levels and maintained downward bias throughout the day and by the end of the day broke yesterday's low (Day's low 5990) and closed at 6000 - exactly on the trend line shown on the EOD chart.

Tomorrow one can consider going short below 5990 with stop loss of 6040. Once the trend line is broken, market may see sharp down side and find support at 5940 and 5910.

One should consider buy trades only above 6045 with stop loss of 6025. On Higher side it will find resistance at 6070 and 6100.

Tomorrow should be an eventful day considering that we have FNO settlement on one side and on the other hand anxiety of Ayodhya Verdict after the market closes. While may the best win between the push and pull of the above events, the traders may find it difficult to be on the right side of the market.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options marginally increased to 1.19 as against 1.14 yesterday.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 29.09.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE :

Though Nifty Future opened steady, it could not sustain at higher (6065) levels and came down to make a low of 6003, which is .618 level and also close to the trend line shown on the EOD chart. In the 2nd half, Nifty Future made a smart up move to close at 6050. Considering the EOD candle, it looks as if Nifty Future should continue its upward march.

Tomorrow, one can consider buying Nifty Future once it trades above 6070 with stop loss of 6045. On the higher side, it will find resistance at 6095 - 6115 and major resistance at 6170.

One needs to keep a watch on Reliance tomorrow, as it has done double bottom today and if it trades above 1015, it can help sustain Nifty Future's upward march - particularly in light of FNO settlement on Thursday.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options increased to 1.14 as against 1.08 yesterday.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 28.09.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE :

As expected, Nifty Future opened with a Gap and made a new high of 6093 but could not sustain at higher levels and gave up all the gains to fill up the gap left in the opening session and made a low of 6043 and closed weak at 6054. As such, the enthusiasm of US markets going up last Friday did not last for long.

For tomorrow, if Nifty Future goes below 6040 - it may create some anxiety, but in view of the sharp rise in a short time, one should be ready for a fall up to 5975, where Nifty Future will find Trend line support. One can consider going short below 6040 with a stop loss of 6070. on down side it will find support at 5975.

Fresh buying should be considered only above 6070 with stop loss of 6040. On the higher side it will find resistance at 6115 and major resistance at 6170.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options decreased to 1.08 as against 1.32 on the previous trading day.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 27.09.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE:

Last week's trading ended on a firm note, indicating continuation of the onward march of Nifty Future. Next week should be an interesting trading week with FNO settlement scheduled for Thursday.

Tomorrow, Nifty Future may open with a gap and will find resistance at 6076, 6115 and major resistance @ 6170. Avoid buying in the gap open, instead let it stabilise and buy on down move with a stop loss of 6000. Major worry on the up side arises only if Nifty Future is not able to take out 5270 which will act as a strong resistance.

Short position may be considered only below 5975 with a stop loss of 6000. Major worry on the down side will arise only when the Trend Line on EOD chart is broken at 5950.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options increased to 1.38 as against 1.22 on the previous day.

Enjoy while the good times last.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR WEEK ENDED 24.09.2010

NIFTY FUTURE WEEKLY

The week has ended on a firm note with intra week correction of about 100 points, but hardly even going below the previous week's top. That's what money power can do to the markets. The weekly range was 148 points (Hi of 6048 & low of 5900) as against 233 points range in the previous week. Considering the firm close, we can only deduce that Nifty Future has taken a breather before continuing its forward march in the next week.

Considering the strength US markets have displayed at the time of writing this post, there is no surprise that we too may have a strong opening. On the higher side we now have resistance at 6115 and major resistance at 6170. If Reliance manages to go above 1050, these levels can be achieved easily.
Though Nifty Future did make a top on the Gann turn date but considering today's close it appears that turn around I expected this week may not happen, particularly in light of next week being FNO settlement week.

If Monday opening is with a gap, I would not advise buying, however, one can buy on correction with a stop loss of 6000. Nifty Future will show weakness only below 5975.

Have a nice weekend!

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 24.09.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE :

Yesterday's double top did have its effect on Nifty Future today. After opening at yesterday's close level, Nifty Future remained sideways, with downward bias for better part of the day. After the mid session, it went down to make a low of 5943 and closed at 5972. The notable point being that after about 9 days, for the first time Nifty Future made a lower top/lower bottom. However we must accept the fact that Nifty Future is showing buying/short covering at lower levels - resulting in close much above the day's bottom.

For tomorrow, one can consider going short when Nifty Future goes up to about 6000 with strict stop loss of 6020. Alternatively, in case of weak opening, one can go short with stop loss of 6000.

On down side, Nifty Future will find support at 5940 and 5900. Tomorrow being last day of the week, if Nifty Future closes below 5940 there is good possibility that my expectation that Nifty Future will top out this week may come true. Though it is too early to say it with certainty as we are heading for FNO settlement next week and hence short positions should be taken with strict stop losses. For any reason, if Nifty Future closes below 5900 (i.e. break of Trend line on the EOD chart) tomorrow, it should be considered as first sign of weakness.

Put Call Ratio of Index increased to 1.22 as against 1.o5 yesterday.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 23.09.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE:

In the opening session, Nifty Future traded firm and made a new high @ 6048 - may be just marginally higher but enough to mark the importance of Gann turn date and it can also be categorised as a double top. Immediately after firm opening, Nifty Future retraced to make a low of 5953. In doing so, after many days it managed to break previous day low, and forming an 'outside bar' - indicating that fresh long position should be created above 6048 and fresh short position should be created below 5953.

Another interesting coincidence about today's top 6048 and the previous top 6336 is :

144 X 42 = 6048 and 144 X 44 = 6336 (144 is Square of 12 an important number for Gann and in many other ways.) This is just to highlight how important Gann Nos end up showing their significance and should not be treated as trading signal.

As Nifty Future recovered from the day's low in the second half and closed at 6002, we should not rush to call today's high as market top as small correction after one way rise over the past few days is logical.

For tomorrow, one can consider going short below 5975 with stop loss of 6000. On the down side, it will find support at 5940 - 5900 and 5850.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options remained almost unchanged at 1.05 as against 1.02 yesterday.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 22.09.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE:

Out of the last 9 days of trading, Nifty Future has made new high on 8 of the day. Today was no exception. Though Nifty Future made a new high to 6046 in the early trades, Nifty Future remained muted thereafter and made a low of 5972 and closed at 6012. At best today's movement can be termed as Nifty Future taking a breather after such a big run. As of today, there is nothing to suggest that Nifty Future has topped out or even is considering a correction. Interestingly, for the past 8 days it has not even broken below the previous day's low. I am giving so much detail just to illustrate the money power underlying the current phase of the market. Considering the strength shown in the past few days, please do not expect the market to loose steam overnight - unless ofcourse theree is some unexpected event.

For tomorrow, I would repeat that the resistance level of 6075 could be an important level. One can consider short positions below 5970 with stop loss of 6000. On the down side, it will find support at 5940 - 5900 and 5850 will provide trend line support shown on the EOD Chart. Tomorrow is also an important Gann turn date and hence can be eventful day. As i have been mentioning for some time now, this week could provide a possible turn around and tomorrow has good possibility to do that.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options decreased to 1.02 as against 1.11 yesterday.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 21.09.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE :

The rise in Nifty Futures seems to be a one way game - 650 points in 14 trading sessions (Avg run rate of 46 per day). This (possibly) last leg of the rise reminds me of Twenty20 cricket match where the last over is meant for hit out or get out. For the market students its the best practical example to experience what money power can do.

There is not much to say in these circumstances except that 6010 and 6075 can be resistance levels. But considering the US markets at the time of writing, be prepared for continuation of today's game. Will it continue this way for a long time - the answer is a definite NO. Either the buyers will have to rationalise their thinking as the market goes higher or there could be some event which forces the participants to revise their thinking. As such, new high on the first day of the week reaffirms my thinking that this week could provide a turning point as stated in my last weekly post.

As per the Turning Points Grid 5950 is the first level, below which weakness may start. However, in the current market mood it is better to be on the buy side and benefit from the rally or be a bystander and let the storm pass. I feel not doing anything at such irrational times is a safer and better option. If you recall, mood in the last weeks of 2007 was very similar. As such no market can go up/down continuously - this 14 day period itself seems to be overstretched to me.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options decreased to 1.11 as against 1.36 on the previous day.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 20.09.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE :

At the End of day on Friday Nifty Future closed strong and that too with all the days of the week showing higher bottom. This itself suggest how strong the momentum is. The only positive from bearish point of view is that Nifty Future did not cross previous day's high.

Though repetitive (and may be boring!) I would like to advise caution at higher levels. As mentioned in my weekly post - the coming week could provide a turning point for the market. Moreover, Monday happens to be the 83rd day from the low of the 4786 and is the total of the previous two moves as shown on the chart.

Existing short positions should be held with a stop loss of 5940. Aggressive traders sharing my view may even consider going short at first sign of weakness with stop loss of 5940. Alternatively, one can consider going short below 5850 with stop loss of 5880. On the down side, it will find support at 5800 and 5775. Close below 5800 should be considered that we are ready for a healthy correction.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options increased to 1.36 as against 1.23 on the previous trading day.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR WEEK ENDED 17.09.2010

NIFTY FUTURE WEEKLY

Needless to mention the obvious, that this week has ended quiet firm or rather strongest weekly close in the recent past. Of the 1130 points rise in 16 weeks. from the low of 4786 - the last 2 weeks have accounted for 408 points (36%). It appears that today Nifty Future stopped just short of New high since I had indicated yesterday that in my view the top could be in place.

While I continue to believe that we are in a strong resistance zone for multiple reasons I have been mentioning over the past couple of days. You will observe one more reason on the attached chart - a trend line drawn in blue with resistance level at 5990. Moreover, as per the time price idea that I follow, next week has the potential for a turnaround.

Considering the structure of the chart and if all the good reasons I have been giving out for impending bearishness have to come true - there will have to be some very strong news for this market to go down - what will that be? I guess GOD alone knows.

As usual, I do not think it to be prudent to create fresh long position at higher levels. Down move can be expected below 5860 with major support at the trend line at 5500.

Have a nice weekend.

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 17.09.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE :

Contrary to my expectations, Nifty Future made a new high, that too post RBI policy announcement but gave up all the gains by the end of the day, to leave EOD candle as a Shooting Star - suggesting bearishness below today's low of 5826. There is one more mathematical reason (though a bit premature) that suggests that today's high of 5916 should stay for some time now. As indicated yesterday, I will not bother you with the maths today, but leave it as a riddle - with a hint that anyone who prepares the TURNING POINTS GRID as suggested in the 'simple trading idea' which I have put in public domain for some time now, can get the answer and comparing it to 2010 Opening price of 5225. Those who have still not got the write-up may do themselves a favour and send me an email and I will send the write-up by return mail. The only reason for leaving it this way is, that some of the readers may see the merit of a simple ideas.

Coming to the tomorrow's market movement, I continue to believe that the risk reward ratio for fresh long positions is a quite adverse and hence it is best avoided. For tomorrow, if market trades below 5800, one can go short with stop loss of 5830. Alternatively, if market pulls back up to 5885, one can go short with stop loss of 5920 (though looks unlikely). On the down side it will find support at 5750-5725 levels and try to bounce back - in view of Trend Line support on the EOD chart. Once this trend line is broken, one need not rush to square up the short positions but would do well to trail it with stop loss.

Tomorrow being the last trading day of the week any close below 5750 should be considered bad for the next week. This is getting reflected in the Put Call Ratio of Index Options as it inched up to 1.23 as against 1.02 yesterday.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

PS: Sentence in Blue added as an after though to make it complete.

TURNING POINTS FOR 16.09.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE :

One more day when Nifty Future made a new high and also closed firm. You would recall that yesterday I had given maths for Nifty Future and had indicated that yesterday's high could probably be the top. It seems the maths in the market is not leaving me and I have one more day to give maths lesson - which will also explain why market did not stop at yesterday's high and has exceeded that level.

Today Nifty Spot has given some more maths which is as follows:

Previous top was : 5549.80

Less: recent bottom : 5348.90 + (200.90 X 2.618 = 525.96) = 5874.86

This is how close level of accuracy such a widely traded market can come to and also explains to a large extent why my expectation of market top went wrong.

In view of the above, I continue to maintain that we are quite near the top leaving aside few points more if market opens strong tomorrow. While writing this I would hasten to add that this is my view with whatever limited knowledge/tools that I have at my disposal. Moreover Reliance giving support to index while catching up with the overall market continues to be open. Hence one need not go short first thing tomorrow, until market gives some indication or one is ready to sell future and buy 5900/6000 call depending on ones risk profile and is willing to wait till the end of the settlement without getting panicky or loosing patience. Alternatively, as suggested yesterday, one can consider buying 5500/5600 put which were available at the end of the session for Rs. 15/21.50 respectively.

The best and safe strategy would be to sell delivery based and wait for the correction to buy.

Nifty Future going below 5770 will be the first sign of market getting ready for correction and if the overall market looks weak one can consider going short with strict stop loss of 5800. On the down side 5725 may offer trend line support.

Though not related, I would like to add that we are in the age of Automated Trading, where the transactions are executed with predefined formulas and hence when down side momentum starts, the machines will calculate faster/emotionless way than a normal human being and this will also be supported by Newton's law, hence ordinary investors have to guard his interest a bit more carefully.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options marginally increased to 1.02 as against 0.92 yesterday.

Whatever may be your view, please don't trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

P.S: Lets hope today is the last day for maths lesson, as it is making the post very lengthy and adding to the delay.

TURNING POINTS FOR 15.09.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE:

In today's trading Nifty Future opened strong and made a new high at 5845 and corrected to make a low of 5778 and then remained stable to close at 5812. In making the new high at 5845, market has provided some more maths, which is as follows:

On EOD chart previous high = 5543
Less: Recent low = 5356 + (187 x 2.618=489) = 5845

In view of the above, I am inclined to suggest that existing long positions are better liquidated as Nifty Future should see a correction, before continuing its upward march. If you are still looking for upside you will do well to keep a tight stop loss of 5750.

Those who are willing to take some risk may buy puts of 5500/5600 strike price which is having the last traded price of Rs. 15.45/24, as going short with naked future may be a risky proposition at this stage. Unless Nifty future moves below the trend line on EOD chart at 5700, possibility of the up move continuing after a pause/correction can not be ruled out.

The correction can come down till the previous low of 5543 and only close below 5543 should be considered as a serious threat to this up move.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options decreased to 0.92 as against 1.02 on the previous day.
Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.
With Best Wishes,
Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 14.09.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE:

In today's trading Nifty Future opened strong and continued its upward march with higher top/higher bottom on the 30 min chart. For those readers who are academically inclined in knowing the arithmetic for today's top of 5777 - the maths is as follows:

On weekly chart Top of 5398

Less: Bottom of 4786 + (612 X 1.618 =) 990.22 = 5776.22 Days top 5777

(Not bad I guess)

Secondly, in my weekly post I had indicated that Nifty Future can go up to 5785 i.e. upper trend line of Andrew's Pitchfork could be the next resistance level, not knowing that it will be achieved on the first day of the week.

It seems the Nifty Future is fired on all cylinders and there is no looking back. In normal situation, the level referred above would provide strong resistance, but considering today's up move I would not say the same as yet. Hence please do not take this as an advise to go short. I am reminded of the market prior to Jan 2008 when the mood was very similar to today (If I recall right, that time it was known as "India Shining"). Add to the current mood, Reliance doing the catch up act as it has under performed the Nifty by a good margin and you will know why I am suggesting don't preempt the top. However for this to happen, Reliance has to cross above 1051.

Whether to create fresh long positions now is an individual choice, but existing long positions will do well to trail the position with stop loss of 5725. Short positions should be avoided at least for tomorrow - till the market gives some indication of weakness.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options reduced to 1.02 as against 1.28 on the previous trading day.

Please do not trade without stop loss.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

P.S. :

1. Delay in writing this post is regretted.

2. I will urge to all those who have not yet rquested for the 'Simple Trading Idea' to send me an email so that I can send the pdf file to them. I am sure those who are following it on Nifty Future and Bank Nifty Future must have understood the importance of it. Never under estimate things which are simple and avilable without much difficulty.

TURNING POINTS FOR 13.09.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE :

Nifty Future ended the week on strong note though after making a high of 5711 with the help of a freak trade. If that trade is given credence, then we have ended the day with a shooting star candle for the EOD. However, as not much trading was done at that level we can safely ignore the pattern. Incidentally, you will observe on the chart, that even the high of a freak traded has taken cognisance of the Pitchfork's upper line - so much for the genius of Andrew Pitchfork's understanding of the market and the ideas initiated by him.

Although I have been advising caution at the hire levels, Nifty Future has been rising consistently after making a low of 5356 just 8 trading days back. On the high side, 5650 - 5675 and 5711 will be resistance levels. Existing long positions should be trailed with stop loss of 5600 as this is also a trend line support level as shown on the EOD chart. Please refer the chart for various markings done on it.

One can consider going short below 5600 with stop loss of 5630. On the lower side it will find support at 5565 and 5540. In any case do not try to preempt the fall. Let market show weakness and then consider going short.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options increased to 1.28 as against 1.16 on the previous trading day.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR WEEK ENDED 10.09.2010

NIFTY FUTURE WEEKLY

NIFTY FUTURE:

This week Nifty Future continued its up move to close the week on strong note at 5632. It should be noted that due to a freak trade in Thursday's opening session, Nifty Future is showing weekly high of 5711, but not much trading took place at this level. In view of the same, weekly candle shows upper shadow and the same should be ignored. As such, weekly close is near the high of the weak and hence we should see the continuation of the rally - at least for the next week.

On the attached weekly chart, I have marked no. of weeks from High to High and also Low to Low. As this being self explanatory, I am not repeating it here. I am sure you will agree that we are in the upper range of the time period taken by the market earlier.

Though Nifty Future will find resistance at 5675, I would like to mention that it can go up to 5785 - which is is the upper level of Andrew's Pithcfork shown on the chart, as IIP nos. are good and US markets are also stable. While oscillators do show divergence on the weekly chart, market can continue to remain up. Major signal for change of trend will come only when the Trend Line (shown in Blue) on the weekly chart showing support at 5420 is broken. Nifty Future can get in to panic mode only below 5400 when trend line is decisively broken.

As we all get in to the festive mood, I would like to remind the readers of the old saying - "The higher you go harder you fall". After all it is our responsibility to protect our gains with suitable trailing stop loss. If one goes by the time period of the previous moves, I guess the next two weeks should be crucial for the market.

Have a nice week end !

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 09.09.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE :

In view of weak Global cues, Nifty Future opened below yesterday's low and made the day's low at 5566 and then continued to move up to make a new high of 5624. In the second half, it gave up the gains but did not break the low made in the opening session and closed the day at 5597. It is typical of the current rally, where Nifty Future makes a new high but gives up the gains - thus leaving upper shadow on the EOD candle. On the EOD chart you will observe that, day's high is near the up trending channel and the EOD candle did not break the trend line (in magenta).

In view of the above, guidance for tomorrow remains the same as today, keep trailing stop loss at 5560 and avoid fresh buying at higher levels - if you can. It will be better to keep a watch on Reliance - if it moves above 973 it will provide good support to Nifty Future on the upside.

Short position may be taken below 5560 with stop loss of 5600. On the down side, it will find support at 5525 and 5500. Please note that for our market, tomorrow is the last trading day of the week in view of long weekend. Close above 5570 should be considered positive for the next week.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options marginally decreased to 1.16 as against 1.25 yesterday.

Market has a mind of its own and it can test our patience - so please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 08.09.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE :

On the back of yesterday's gains, Nifty Future opened firm and remained sideways for better part of the day - except in the last hour it made a high of 5613 but gave up the gains in last 30 min to close at 5592. Thus the EOD candle reflects a doji - suggesting indecisiveness. It should be noted that Nifty Future has remained below 5620 level indicated by the trend line (in Blue) on the EOD chart.

The interesting part for tomorrow will be that either Nifty Future has to break this level and continue its up move and go up to 5675. Alternatively, if it comes down and breaks the trend line (in magenta) on the down side, it may loose the momentum of the last 5 days. For this purpose, I will consider 5560 as an important level. Below this, it will find support at 5540 and 5510. Please remember that Newton's Law works very well on this market too.

Considering that I am not inclined to suggest long positions at higher levels, I would advise caution to hold long positions with tight stop losses. One can consider going short below 5540 with stop loss of 5570. On down side it will find support at 5510 and 5480.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options remained almost unchanged at 1.25 as against 1.27 yesterday.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 07.09.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE:

On the back of rise in Global markets, Nifty Future opened with a gap and maintained the up move with broad participation which also included Reliance. This led Nifty Future to make a new High of 5589 and closed at 5577.

As the US markets are closed today, we have no surprises at least for the opening session tomorrow. Moreover, we are close to the pattern target of 5600 and also a strong resistance region at 5620. Whether today's enthusiasm will continue tomorrow and help us to cross this resistance region needs to be seen. If 5620 is crossed - a tough call in my opinion, we can look for next resistance only around 5675-5700.

I would continue to advise caution at higher levels and avoid fresh long positions. Existing long positions may be trailed with a Stop Loss of 5540. At the same time it will not to be prudent to under estimate the bull run and go against the trend and create fresh short position. It will be better to wait for a day and let the market give some indication of weakness before we consider going short.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options remained almost unchanged at 1.27 as against 1.28 on the previous trading day.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 06.09.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE:

On last Friday's trading Nifty Future made lower top (5500) and lower bottom (5471) - first time after the sharp up move from the 5356 levels. However, Monday's trading (at least the opening session) may be influenced by the up move in US markets.

As the lower top/lower bottom on the weekly chart indicates downward bias, I would remain cautious and avoid participating in the up move - if any. Moreover, last two days EOD candle for Sensex/Nifty Spot both have long upper shadow - suggesting caution at higher levels.

On the attached 30 min chart, I have shown a flag pattern - though not perfect. Looking at this pattern, if one is tempted to take a long position, I would suggest that it would be better to go long only when Nifty Future moves above 5515 - with a strict stop loss of 5480) for an eventual pattern target of 5600 - with a hurdle around the previous top of 5545.

Existing long positions may be held with a stop loss of 5460. Fresh short positions may be taken below 5430 with a stop loss of 5450.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options increased to 1.28 as against 1.15 on the previous trading day.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR WEEK ENDED 03.09.2010

NIFTY FUTURE WEEKLY

NIFTY FUTURE:

After a sharp bounce in the beginning of the week, Nifty Future closed at 5485. Thus the week's range was 153 points with high of 5510 and low of 5356. While the lower shadow in Weekly candle does leave some hopes for the up move to continue, the point that should not be ignored is that after 8 weeks, we have got lower top/lower bottom on the weekly chart. If this is of any significance, than we need to be cautious - at least till this signal is negated if Nifty Future makes a new high above 5543. It may be just a coincidence that, we have made the top exactly on the 64th day (Square of 8) and now once again we have 8 weeks after which we have made lower top/lower bottom.

RSI and Stochastic are already in a sell mode, and MACD is just getting ready to cut the trigger line to generate a sell signal. Even the divergence between the price and RSI and Price and MACD suggests lack of momentum at higher levels.

In view of the above, I would not advise long position, but rather repeat my suggestion of selling on delivery basis so that one can buy on deep correction. Existing long positions may be held with stop loss of 5460.

Sell position may be initiated below 5430 with stop loss of 5465.

Turning Points for 06.09.2010 will be posted by Sunday evening.

Till then, enjoy your weekend!

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 03.09.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

CRITICAL LEVELS:

LEVEL 1: 5400, LEVEL 2: 5225, LEVEL 3: 5100

NIFTY FUTURE:

On the back of strong closing in US markets, Nifty Future did open with a gap to make a high of 5510, but the enthusiasm shown in the past two days was lacking at higher levels. During the day Nifty Future managed to fill the gap and made a low of 5477.

Sharp bounce from the low of 5356 has given some hopes for a new high and in that respect tomorrow should be considered as an important day as it will be the last day for the week. As key stocks like Infosys, Reliance and SBI have closed near the low of the day, I feel that Nifty Future may find it difficult to make a New High. Moreover, the guidance given by previous week's Engulfing Bearish Candle and a Shooting Star Candle for the previous month is of any significance, I do not think there is any possibility for a new high. If the close is any where near 5430 - without making a new high, the weekly candle will be making lower top/lower bottom, which would be in line with my bearish view ahead.

For tomorrow, I would not advise fresh long position. Short position may be taken below 5430 with stop loss of 5465. On down side it will find support at 5420 and 5370.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options decreased to 1.15 as against 1.22 yesterday.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

SIMPLE TRADING IDEA

I have prepared a write-up titled "IMPORTANCE OF 50% LEVEL IN ANALYSING MARKET MOVEMENT". I believe this simple trading idea could be of great help to traders/investors.
In case you wish to have a copy of the write-up, please send an email to turningpoints.in@gmail.com, with "50% LEVEL" mentioned in the subject line.
I will send you the pdf file by return mail within a day. I have to adopt this individual emails route, as blogger does not allow uploading of pdf file.
With Regards,
Ketan Asher.
TO READ "TURNING POINTS FOR 02.09.2010" PLEASE SEE THE POST BELOW.

TURNING POINTS FOR 02.09.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
CRITICAL LEVELS:
LEVEL 1: 5400, LEVEL 2: 5225, LEVEL 3: 5100

NIFTY FUTURE :

After opening with a gap Nifty remained sideways and came down to fill the gap left in the opening session. In the last 2 hours it continued to make higher bottom/higher top and made a high of 5488 and closed near the top at 5478. Considering the up move in the US markets, there is a good possibility of the up move to continue tomorrow.

While there is no denying that we had a sharp up move today and we are decisively back inside the channel, we must remember that the up move was with lower volume compared to yesterday - when we saw recovery after a sharp decline. Moreover, the oscillators are still indicating negative bias hence caution is advised at higher levels, as we could just do a double top at 5545 and reverse again.

For tomorrow, I would not advise to buy on a gap open. However, if there is a pull back up to 5445, one can consider going long with a strict stop loss of 5415. On higher side, we will have resistance at 5490 and 5520.

Fresh short position should be considered only below 5400.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options increased to 1.22 as against 1.15 yesterday.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher,