Wednesday, September 30, 2009

TURNING POINTS FOR 01.10.09


Charts: SBI - SAIL - RELIANCE


Charts: MARUTI - ICICI BANK - NIFTY FUTURE

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN
NIFTY FUTURE:
Contrary to my expectations, the market continued its upward march today and went above earlier top of 5050. The intra day movement is nicely depicted on 30 min chart attached herewith - it has been moving along the pitchfork lines shown in the chart for the past 2 days.Today's up move was surprisingly led by Banking stocks.
In the attached chart of Nifty Future EOD, i have given some marking for days from the day when bottom of 2228 was made. If the previous such levels are of any significance, tomorrow is also an important turn day. Will Nifty Future make an intermediate top? Well, from today's close it does not look like it. Incidentally today was the monthly close when Nifty Future made 509 points range during the month and closed at the higher levels of the month. In view of the above, i do not know how prudent it will be on my part to look for an intermediate top. I would wait for one more day before getting convinved about the rally.
On down side, one can sell Nifty future below 5030 with stop loss of 5050. it will find support at 5000 and below which the weakness will accelerate. Further down Nifty Future will find support at 4975 - 4935 -4900.
Like me, the market too does not seem to be convinced of the rally and hence the Put Call Ratio for Index Options once again increased to 1.31 as against 1.05 on the previous day. It must be a record of sorts that for all the trading days of Sept 09 PCR remained above 1.
Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.
With Best Wishes,
Ketan Asher.







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