TURNING POINTS FOR 01.10.09

Charts: SBI - SAIL - RELIANCE

Charts: MARUTI - ICICI BANK - NIFTY FUTURE

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN

NIFTY FUTURE:

Contrary to my expectations, the market continued its upward march today and went above earlier top of 5050. The intra day movement is nicely depicted on 30 min chart attached herewith - it has been moving along the pitchfork lines shown in the chart for the past 2 days.Today's up move was surprisingly led by Banking stocks.

In the attached chart of Nifty Future EOD, i have given some marking for days from the day when bottom of 2228 was made. If the previous such levels are of any significance, tomorrow is also an important turn day. Will Nifty Future make an intermediate top? Well, from today's close it does not look like it. Incidentally today was the monthly close when Nifty Future made 509 points range during the month and closed at the higher levels of the month. In view of the above, i do not know how prudent it will be on my part to look for an intermediate top. I would wait for one more day before getting convinved about the rally.

On down side, one can sell Nifty future below 5030 with stop loss of 5050. it will find support at 5000 and below which the weakness will accelerate. Further down Nifty Future will find support at 4975 - 4935 -4900.

Like me, the market too does not seem to be convinced of the rally and hence the Put Call Ratio for Index Options once again increased to 1.31 as against 1.05 on the previous day. It must be a record of sorts that for all the trading days of Sept 09 PCR remained above 1.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 30.09.09

Charts: SBI - SAIL - RELIANCE

Charts: MARUTI - ICICI BANK - NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN

NIFTY FUTURE:

On the back of good rise in US markets yesterday, Nifty Future opened with a Gap and made a top @ 5019 (hitting my stop loss for only 9 points) Although the Advance Decline ratio was quite favourable throughout the day, Nifty Future languished in 30 points range for most of the day. On one side Reliance was supporting the Nifty Future where as SBI was pulling it down.

While there may be optimism around us, fact remains, that truncated week will have its impact and coupled with strong resistance of 5050, a downside correction up to 4800 can only do good for the Nifty Future's further up move in the coming weeks, Lets face it we are at the highest levels of the past 6 months and all the experts have been declaring that at current PE levels market looks expensive.
For tomorrow, i will not advise buying at higher levels, instead inaction is also a better option. If Nifty Future trades below 4965 it would be better to sell with stop loss of 5010. It will find support @ 4935 - 4900 - 4865 and 4800.

Put Call Ratio for Index Options was marginally lower @ 1.05 as against 1.25 on previous day. It may noted that that PCR has been consistently remaining above 1 for quite some time now.

Please do not forget to put STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 29.09.09

Charts: SBI - SAIL - RELIANCE

Charts: MARUTI - ICICI BANK - NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN

NIFTY FUTURE:

In last Friday's session Nifty Future remained below 5010 and maintained bearish bias. This week will have only 3 trading sessions, leading to cautious approach by the players and inherent disadvantage for the call buyers. With US markets showing downward bias, we too may feel the effect of the same. Please see the attached Nifty Future 30 Min chart to see how Pitchfork became hurdle to Fridays' up move.

I would continue to maintain downward bias and advise selling Nifty Future below 4975 with 5010 as Stop Loss. On down side, 4920 - 4900 and 4870 are support levels. If trend line @ 4870 is broken, 4810 will be a good support level, from where Nifty Future can make an attempt to move up.

Put Call Ratio of Inex Options increased to 1.25 as against 1.11 on previous day. In a way this too confirms that market players continue to remain cautious.

This short week may offer a good opportunity for a correction before market starts moving up again, hence buying at support could turnout to be a better strategy.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 25.09.09

Charts: SBI - SAIL - RELIANCE

Charts: MARUTI - ICICI BANK - NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN

NIFTY FUTURE :

In today's trading Nifty Future did not go below 4900 and had sharp bounce with Nifty Future
making a high of 4995. Much of this bounce should be given to the last day of FNO settlement.

With Infosys becoming weak, Nifty Future should maintain downside bias. Moreover, Nifty has continued to make lower top and lower bottom for the second consecutive day. Considering the importance i gave to resistance @ 5050 level and that too on an important Gann date, i would continue to avoid buying at higher levels,

For tomorrow, Nifty Future should be sold below 4975 with stop loss of 5010. On the down side Nifty Future will get support @ 4920 - 4900 - 4875 and 4810. Break of today's low can take Nifty Future up to 4775 from where we can see a meaningful bounce. Moreover, if Nifty Future closes below 4955 it will make it a negative week after gains in the previous four weeks.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options was marginally down @ 1.11 as against 1.19 yesterday.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 24.09.09

Charts: SBI - SAIL - RELIANCE

Charts: MARUTI - ICICI BANK - NIFTY FUTURE EOD

Charts : NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN
NIFTY FUTURE:

As anticipated yesterday, Nifty Future did not breach 5049 made yesterday (also an important Gann date) and there by vindicating my view that 5050 should act as a major hurdle. In today's rather lacklustre trading, in the last half hour of trade, market made a sharp down move to make a bottom @ 4951.

It is likely that tomorrow being the last trading day for FNO settlement, Nifty Future may take support at 4920 and try to retest 5000 levels. For this to happen, Reliance has to once again move above 2110.

If the market has to go down for a deeper correction, it will make a double top or come nearer 5000 levels and then fall once again, in the new series. This would confirm the point made yesterday that 5050 should act as a major hurdle.

Tomorrow being the last day of FNO settlement, it is natural to expect higher level of volatility and therefore it is advisable to be very selective in taking intra-day trading calls. I do not advise any new buying at these levels and it will be better to watch how the market behaves post FNO settlement.

Put Call Ratio for Index Options has reduced to 1.19 today as against 1.39. The way PCR has fallen in last three days, i wouldn't be surprised to see that this ratio goes below 1 in the new series.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 23.09.2009

Charts: SBI - SAIL - RELIANCE

Charts : MARUTI - ICICI BANK - NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN

NIFTY FUTURE :

Inspite of weakness in US and Asian markets, Nifty Future continued its march to touch 5047 before coming down in the last half hour of trade. The moot point is that can Nifty Future maintain its upward march when Reliance is showing weakness? The answer is NO. In other words, if Nifty future is to continue its upward march, Reliance has to catch up or else Nifty Future has to come down.

I must remind that the two hurdles - 5040 and 5050 referred yesterday, should normally offer strong resistance, but in these days - when Cash is King, Technical Resistances have very limited role to play. I would continue to remain cautious @ 5050 + levels and not advise fresh long position. Next resistance level is 5075 and 5150.

On downside one should create short positions only below 5000 with Stop loss of 5040. it will find support @ 4975 and 4920.

While we have always seen that Nifty will continues upward march up to FNO settlement day, i would like to caution that there is no such rule and market which is going up, can break the trend even during the last two days. So please protect your long positions, with tight STOP LOSS levels.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options reduced to 1.39 as against 1.65 yesterday. It would be interesting to see this indicator in the beginning of the new series.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 22.09.09

Charts: SAIL - SBI - RELIANCE

Charts: MARUTI - ICICI BANK - NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN

NIFTY FUTURE:

In Friday's trading, the hopes of revisiting 5000 have been kept alive. Nifty Future may cross this level tomorrow but will find 5040 as a major hurdle as shown in the attached Nifty Future 30 min chart.

In case Nifty Future goes above 5000, all long positions should be trailed with stop loss of 4990. Similarly, all Calls of 5000 & 5100 should also be trailed appropriately since the time to expiry is coming close.

On short side it is better to wait till Nifty Future goes below 4900 and stop loss should be kept @ 4925. Below this level Nifty Future will find support @ 4865 and 4800 levels.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options increased to 1.65 as against 1.54 on the previous day.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

PS: Today is an important Gann date - 22nd September - half of the year, that coupled with 5050 level (twice the levels of 2525 from where this up move has begun) can be an important turn date, and could take market down to test 4750 level.

TURNING POINTS FOR 18.09.09

Charts : SBI - SAIL - RELIANCE

Charts : MARUTI - ICICI BANK - NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN

NIFTY FUTURE:

At last we made it to 5000 but you can say that we just had a glimpse of it because Nifty Future could harldy trade above that level for any significant length of time. This was mainly due to weakness in Reliance. Even after the clarification from the Company in the last hour of trade, it could not show any recovery.

Does it mean that the party is over and we start shorting Nifty Future? Well, I don't thinks so - as one day and weakness in one of the heavy weights, is not eonough to say that we have made the top. In case Nifty Future goes below today's low of 4955, it will find good support at 4925 and 4900 as shown in the attached chart.

If after the fall Nifty Future goes above 4925, one can buy with 4900 as stop loss. On higher side 4955 and 5000 will be resistance.

Put Call Ratio of index options was @ 1.54 as against 1.61 yesterday.

As Monday is a trading Holiday, market participants may be extra cautious in keeping the positions open for a long weekend.

Please to do not forget to use STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.