Wednesday, July 1, 2009

POST BUDGET MARKET PERFORMANCE - A HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE


Considering the interest the Budget is generating, it is intereseting to know how Nifty Futures behaved before and after the budget. With this objective, I have tabulated the above.
While the reader is free to draw his own conclusions from the attached table, some obvious observations are given below:
1. During the NDA regime the effect of Budget is marginal, with post budget negative bias, except in the first year, when the fall was little higher.
2. During the UPA regime, post budget effect is generally positive.
3. Budget day Nifty when compared to its value 3 months prior, the highest in earlier years is about 12.86%. In the current year this figure based on yesterday closing is 31.60%.
I hope the above table will be helpful to the reader in building his own pre & post budget expectations on the Nifty Future.
With Best Wishes,
Ketan Asher.

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