MARKET VIEW FOR 31.07.2009

Charts: TATA STEEL - TATA POWER - SAIL

Charts - RELIANCE - ICICI BANK - NIFTY EOD

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN

NIFTY FUTURE:

Yesterday's close of Nifty Future has been near the high of the day, which augurs well for today's opening session.

For today, we can consider buy trades above 4602 and sell trades below 4590, with 25 points stop loss. It would be bettter to do the trades after 10.30 am, as by then the market would get time to stabilise.

On higher side 4660 could be a major hurdle as shown in the attached 30 min chart. There after 4680 could act as resistance. In case market goes above 4700 it is better to buy 4800 Call as protection against any short position in Nifty Future.

On lower side, below 4590, Nifty Future could get support @ 4525 and will get weak below 4500, with support @ 4450 and 4400.

As stated above it is better to look for trades (even in individual stocks) after watching the market action for the first 30 min so that we are not stuck on the wrong side of the market.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

Words of Wisdom

Success in trading and life comes from knowing your edge,

pressing it when you have the opportunity,

and sitting back when that edge is no longer present.

MARKET VIEW FOR 30.07.2009

Charts: TATA STEEL - TATA POWER - SAIL

Charts:RELIANCE - ICICI BANK - NFITY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN

NIFTY FUTURE:

Yesterday Nifty Future made a low of 4415 and closed @ 4512 - up nearly 100 points from the low. This pullback from the bottom by 100 points gives hopes that there is a small chance that market may do a new top above 4703 and satisfy the pattern discussed in a weekend post 2 weeks back titled -NIFTY FUTRE - WHAT NEXT?.

Today is the last trading day for the Derivatives settlement, hence volatality will be above normal. On downside one can buy near 4450 with stop loss below yesterday's low. On higher side 4535 will act as resisitance. On higher side one can buy above 4535 with stop loss of 4500 and target of 4600.

On downside, below 4400 we have support at 4330 and 4250. Below this level we have to consider that this upmove to be over and be prepared to go down to 3950 and below this 3600 too is possible. While these levels may look unrealisitic today, we have seen that Newton's Law - like so many other things in nature, works very well in this market too. To illustrate this point, i would like to point out the above normal size of Red bars in the 30 min Nifty Future chart attached herewith. Please do remember that all the gaps left during the upmove need to be filled up - sooner the better.

It would be a volatile day so please do keep the STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

Words of Wisdom

A formula for success in life and finance:

never hold an investment that you would

not be willing to purchase afresh today.

MARKET VIEW FOR 29.072009

Charts: TATA STEEL - TATA POWER - SAIL

Charts: RELIANCE - ICICI BANK - NIFTY EOD

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN

NIFTY FUTURE:
In today's trading Nifty Future did not break yesterday's low of 4525, but at the same time could not go above yesterday's high of 4609. Thus Nifty future has done double top, which is a cause for concern for Nifty Future to attain higher levels.

On down side one can go shourt when Nifty future is below 4565 with stop loss of 4602 and target of 4525 - 4500 and 4460.

On higher side Nifty Future can be bought only above 4611 with stop loss 4565 and target of 4660 and 4680.

As we are approaching the FNO settlement volatility will increase and hence STOP LOSS should be strictly followed.

With best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

Thought for the Day

Happiness is the profit we harvest from life.

All life's activities should be periodically reviewed for their return on investment.

MARKET VIEW FOR 28.07.2009

Charts: TATA POWER - TATA STEEL - SAIL

Charts: RELIANCE - ICICI BANK - NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN

NIFTY FUTURE:

Although Reliance was down by about 5%, Nifty Future remained quite firm in view of compensating gains in other heavy weights viz. Infosys, SBI and Hindustan Lever.

Tomorrow's market movement will be guided by RBI credit policy which is normally announced by about noon.

Below 4600 market may show downward bias. Nifty future should be sold below 4525 with a stop loss of 4560 and target of 4450. In case Credit Policy is not favourable, Nifty Future can even go down till 4390.

On higher side one can buy Nifty Future above 4600 with stop loss of 4575 and target of 4650 and 4680.

Please do not forget to use STOP LOSS.

With best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

Thought for the Day

The worst decisions, in life and markets, come from extremes:

overconfidence and a lack of confidence.

MARKET VIEW FOR 27.7.2009

Charts: TATA STEEL, TATA POWER, SAIL

Charts: RELIANCE, ICICI BANK, NIFTY EOD

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN

NIFTY FUTURE:

Nifty Future had a strong close on weekly basis, inidcatiing strength. However, due to weak results from Reliance, market may open lower. In view of this contradictory signals, it is better to wait for the 1st 15-20 minutes and decide the trade thereafter. In case of weak open, buy trade should be considered only above today' open with stop loss below the day's low. On higher sides the resistance levels are 4590, 4620 and 4660. On lower side 4525 and 4490 will act as support levels.

Nifty Future is now close to the previous Top of 4703 levels and hence it is better to be cautious at this level if having long positions. Pl protect long positions with Strict Stop Loss.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

Thought for the Day

All trends and cycles come to an end.

Who anticipates the future, profits.

MARKET VIEW FOR 24.02.2009

Charts: TATA STEEL, TATA POWER, SAIL

Charts: RELIANCE, ICICI BANK, NIFTY EOD

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN

NIFTY FUTURE:

As against my expectation of weak opening, Nifty future opened with a gap on back of strong Asian markets. It spent better part of the day in a narrow range and then gave a breakout on the upper side to close @ 4535.

With good upmove in US markets, it is likely that we may have a gap open. Above 4575, it looks almost certain that Nifty Future may make a new Top early next week (or today itself?). On higher side 4600 - 4660 and 4680 will act as resistance. On downside market will get weak below 4480 and take support @ 4440 and 4390.

As a matter of abundant caution, i would not suggest buying at these levels, instead it would be a better idea to wait for the new TOP and go short at appropriate time at higher levels. In the attached charts for individual stocks i have given buy side transaction which may be used for intraday purpose rather than delivery based buying.It woould also be advisable to sell delivery stock at higher levels.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With best wishes,

Ketan Asher.

Thought for the Day

Embrace change: With volatility comes opportunity, as well as danger.

MARKET VIEW FOR 23.07.2009

Charts : TATA STEEL - TATA POWER - SAIL

Charts : RELIANCE - ICICI BANK - NIFTY EOD

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN

NIFTY FUTURE:
From the Nifty Future 30 min chart you will observe the size of the bar when Nifty came out of the channel, which has been shown for the last few days. At the close, we have lost 25% of the 664 points range from 3905 to today's high of 4569. Today's close is weak and indicates that market may open weak tomorrow. In case it open's near 4420, one can go short with stop loss of 4460.

On lower levels, 4310 - 4330 can act as a good support level. Below 4310, it will find support at

4260. Break of 4220 should be conisdered as very weak.

Next two days movement will give an indication if the previous week's smart recovery was just a mirage or the market has the steam left to make a new top above 4703

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

Thought for the Day

Pessimism never won any battles.

MARKET VIEW FOR 22.7.2009

Charts: TATA STEEL - TATA POWER - SAIL

Charts: RELIANCE - ICICI BANK - NIFTY EOD

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN

NIFTY FUTURE:

Nifty Future neither made a new high nor broke yesterday's low and hence, today's candlestick

only suggests a pause after a sharp run.

As indicated yesterday, weakness will accelerate only below 4440 (incidentaly, today it made a low of 4438.10). In the 30 min chart, i had indicated a channel and the price is close to leaving the channel, so the odds are higher for the downside.

For tomorrow, it is advisable to go short only below 4435 with a stop loss of 4465. The support levels are 4390 and 4310.

It is advisable to avoid buy side transactions, not only in Nifty Future but also in individual stocks too.

It is still advisable to sell stocks which have been bought around 4000 levels.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.
With Best Wishes.

Ketan Asher.

Thought for the Day

The direction we are facing,

has a lot to do with our destination.