NIFTY FUTURE QUARTER ENDED MAR 2012

NIFTY FUTURE QUARTERLY

As per the basic charting principles, as the time frame increases - so does the significance of the signals given by the chart. As quarterly chart is next in line to the Annual chart, its significance can not be undermined.

The key features of the Mar 2012 quarter are:

1. During the quarter Nifty Future made a range of 1108 points (High 5700 & Low 4592).

2. After previous 4 quarters of lower top lower bottom formation, we have for the first time, higher top and higher bottom formation - a big positive indeed.

3. The low of the Mar 2012 quarter has taken support on the lower parallel line of the Andrew's Pitchfork drawn in blue.

4.. One negative indication on the chart is given by the upper shadow of the candle. This when seen with the lower top and lower bottom formation on the monthly chart, does not augur well for the sustained up move. The upper shadow indicates selling pressure at higher levels.

5. The major move can now be expected only above previous quarter high (5700) and previous quarter low (4592).

6. During the current quarter (June 2012), on the up side Nifty future will face resistance of the trend line (shown in blue) at 5600. On the down side it will break the lower parallel line of the Andrew's Pitchfork at 4750. Thus giving a range of 850 points before which we can expect any major directional move.

To summarise, I would say that Nifty Future may face strong resistance at 5600 on the up side (considering the upper shadow in Q.E. Mar 2012 candle and Nifty may spend time in this 850 point range during this quarter before we can see any major move.

With Best Wishes for a new Financial Year.

Ketan Asher.

INVESTMENT IDEA - GLENMARK PHARMA

GLENMARK PHARMA WEEKLY

On the attached weekly chart of Glenmark Pharma, you will find that the stock is consolidating for over 2 years in a 135 points range. With the stock now coming near the apex of the triangle, looks ready for upward break out.

Though the breakout takes place at 325, one can consider it for buying above 300 with stop loss of 285. Once it breaks out of 325, it will gain momentum with a target of about 450. On the way up, it will face hurdles at 350 and 390.

Happy Investing!

Ketan Asher.

SPECIAL UPDATE - CENTURY TEXTILES

CENTURY TEXTILES WEEKLY

Regular visitors would recall that I had been updating the weekly chart on this blog for a long time. I have posted this Special Update, as the stock has moved up considerably in the past week and has given a strong breakout with high volumes on the weekly chart.

On the attached chart, you will observe that after consolidating for about 5 weeks, Nifty Future has broken out of Flag pattern with high volumes. While this does indicate strength and augurs well for the stock, one must be careful that it will encounter strong resistance at 385. Further up move to 425 and 485 will be possible only when it manages to cross this hurdle at 385 - being 50% level as well as the trend line.

Continues to remain a good stock to buy on declines.

Another fall out of this up move is that the direct beneficiary will be Pilani Investmets (listed on BSE & NSE) which holds about 30% of this stock besides other investments in Aditya Birla Group and Tata Steel. Though the trading interest is low, it would be a good long term investment considering the strength of its total investments. The Balance Sheet of Pilani Investments makes an interesting reading for long term investor.

Wishing you all a very happy Gudi Padwa!

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 23.03.2012

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE:

After a sharp up move yesterday, Nifty Future made a sharp down move, taking Nifty Future below yesterday's low and thereby creating a panic like situation.

I have updated the blog today with the hope that with the help of the attached charts we can be prepared for tomorrow's trading.

The close does indicate that we may see a weak opening tomorrow, even leading to a gap down open in case the World markets extend weakness. However the brighter side is that we are now close to many supports in the area of 5150 and 5180. Even the Andrew's Pitchfork drawn on the attached chart shows median line support around the same level.

Considering that we had a strong brake out on the weekly chart after range bound trading for 64 weeks, I doubt if this weakness will precipitate into a major downside.

More importantly,tomorrow is a Friday and a time for weekly close. In my view, once the opening session weakness settles down around the levels indicated above, one can consider going long on Nifty Future with stop loss of 5140 or better still buy 5300 call for the current series or the next month - if you are ready to pay little more. Once Nifty Future trades above 5270 level, one can consider that my optimism has some merit.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.