IMPORTANT NOTE

With effect from tomorrow, I plan to discontinue the daily/weekly updates. Instead, I will now post stock / index ideas of particular interest occasionally.
As and when I update the blog, I will send an alert tthrough my twitter account.
Moreover, I now plan to start weekly training programmes during market hours. Those interested may write to me at turningpoints.in@gmail.com for details.
Thank you all for visiting my blog.
With Regards,
Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 29.02.2012

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE:

As the world markets were flat to positive yesterday, Nifty Future too opened strong and maintained the up move through the day. May be market realised that yesterday's fall was little over done. Today's close at 5442 is near the top (5459) of the day - suggesting strength. Should be we consider yesterday's sharp fall just as an abberation and expect the market to rally from here? I don't think so, particularly because of the ease with which it broke the support yesterday at 5400 level. Moreover, there are many more hurdles on the way up - particularly at 5480 (shown on 30 min chart) and 5530 (0.618 level). I doubt if this resistance will get cleared in a hurry.

For tomorrow, one can consider going short below 5420 with stop loss of 5470. Altertantively, one can consider going short at higher levels around 5480 with stop loss of 5520. Considering that US and European markets are flat at the time of writing this post, there is a possibility that Nifty Future may open strong and test higher levels at 5480.

I do not advise going long at higher levels.

As regards the Index option chain data, I find that there has been considerable addition in open interest on the put side. Interestingly, there has been reduction in open interest in respect of Bank Nifty Future - suggesting liqidation of long position at higher levels.

I would consider tomorrow to be an important day for the near term trend of the market, as I believe that in case Nifty Future moves below 5300 levels, it will break the trend line on the EOD chart and that will entail deeper correction for the next few days.

Whatever may be your view, please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 28.02.2012

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE:

In today's trading, Nifty Future opened weak and maintained downside bias which accelerated once Nifty Future broke 5400. It closed the day (5339) weak near the low of the day (5326). As Nifty Future broke 5400 effortlessly, there was a sharp fall across the sectors.

Considering the sharp fall today, I would expect Nifty Future to take respite tomorrow at 5300 levels, particularly because there is a trend line support. However, if this level (5300) too is broken effortlessly, then we can expect a deeper correction.

Assuming that 5300 is held as, one can consider going long at lower levels with stop loss of 5270. On the higher side it will face resistance at 5420 and 5465. At least for now, this should be considered as a bounce and long position should be liquidated at higher levels indicated above.

It is advisable to avoid short position at lower levels unless 5300 is broken.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 27.02.2012

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE:

Having come of the Andrew's Pitchfork, Nifty Future continued to maintain downside bias in Friday's trading. It left the previous gap at 5454 unfilled by just 2 points (low of 5456).

For tomorrow. break of 5450 will take Nifty Future down to an important support level at 5403 (High of previous quarter). There could be a bounce from this level up to 5500 and the same should be factored into your trading. Its only when 5400 is broken, we will have more down side, which can take Nifty Future down to 5300 and 5270.

On the higher side 5555 will provide resistance and this level should be used as stop loss of short positions.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR WEEKENDED 24.02.2012

NIFTY FUTURE WEEKLY
The 8th week has finally given much awaited correction and an opportunity to buy at lower levels. The last week saw a small trading range of 179 points (High 5635 & Low of 5456) but neither broke the previous week's high nor low. It closed the week at 5487 - near the low of the week, suggesting weakness to continue for the next week.

For the coming week, down side break of 5400 will accelerate the fall where as on the higher side 5555 will provide resistance.

Break of 5400 will take Nifty Future down to 5270 and 5150 and these levels can be used for buying for a possible rally around budget time.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 24.02.2012

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE:

In volatile trade, FNO settlement took place today on a bearish note. Intrestingly, Nifty Future has finally come out of the Andrew's Pitchfork on the 30 min chart. On the same chart you will also find that intra day, Nifty Future retraced without being able to move inside it. Secondly, on the EOD chart you will find that Nifty Future has moved below the trend line - suggesting weakness.

During the day Nifty Future made a high of 5542 and low of 5465. Though it closed today at 5488 for tomorrow's reference point we have to consider Mar series which closed at 5537.

Tomorrow's trading has to be seen in context of it being the last trading day of the 8th week of up move. Will Nifty Future be able to close near the high of this week - for the straight 8th week? To me this looks unlikely - more so because Nifty Future has not even crossed the previous weeks' high yet and hence lower high is already in place. It is likely that Nifty Future can go up to 5585 and find resistance. Short position may be considered at this level with stop loss of 5625. On the down side, it will find support at 5510 - 5465 and 5420.

As regards the Index options data, there has been considerable increase on the put side for Mar series - once again suggesting weakness ahead. I would not advise fresh long position at higher levels as close around 5550 will indicate weakness for the next week.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 23.02.2012

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE:
And finally, we saw a correction in Nifty Future, which took everyone by surprise for its intensity. After a stable opening Nifty Future did make an attempt to inch up, but could not manage higher than previous day. In today's trading, Nifty Future made a high of 5433 and low of 5502. It closed the day at 5518. On the EOD chart you will find that Nifty Future has taken support on the trend line. The fall was sharp in case of Bank Nifty Future. May be that's why it is said "Higher you go - harder you fall".

At the outset, I must say that this fall should be considered as a correction of a steep rise. For tomorrow, we can expect a weak opening and Nifty Future can go down to 5440 and find good support. In case this level is breached, we have support at 5400. Either of this level can be used to create long position, with stop loss of 5400/5365 as the case may be.

I would not advise going short tomorrow at lower levels. Instead, long position may be created as indicated above. I would also like to highlight that Mar series is trading at premium of Rs. 40/- and this could lead to a higher opening on Friday as compared to tomorrow and thus Nifty Future looking weak tomorrow at close, may look stronger when it opens for trading on Friday. So do keep this point in mind while trading.

Expect higher volatility tomorrow and hence please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 22.02.2012

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE:

In today's trading, Nifty Future traded in a narrow range of 65 points (High 5635 & Low 5570) and closed at 5622. The days' up move was mainly led by Banks and Reliance,

While the announcement of Greece deal did boost our market sentiment, interestingly the European markets are trading weak.

For tomorrow, short position may be taken at higher levels with stop loss of 5675 or alternatively below 5560 with stop loss of 5600. Nifty Future will find support at 5500 and 5450.

As mentioned yesterday, at higher levels 5725 will provide tough resistance due to trend line on the Weekly chart.

I continue to recommend to buy on declines though break of even previous day low is still no where in sight. I am sure those who have patience will get rewarded, if not till this Thursday, may be soon thereafter.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 21.02.2012

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE :

In Friday's trading, Nifty Future opened with 5700 as Open = High, but remained weak thereafter. It closed the day at 5590 with days' low as 5565. Nifty Future continues to remain just below the median line (but inside) of the Andrew's Pitchfork on the 30 min chart.

As mentioned in the weekly post, only indication for impending correction comes from the lower shifting of Nifty Future position to Mar series though it can change over the next 3 days of trading.

For tomorrow, one can consider going short below 5590 with stop loss of 5625. On the down side, Nifty Future will find support at 5530 and 5450.

Considering the up move in US/European markets, we too may see up move which can take Nifty Future back to 5675 levels. This can be used to go short with stop loss of 5725.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR WEEKENDED 17.02.2012

NIFTY FUTURE WEEKLY

Last week saw 7th week of sustained up move, with only a small upper shadow on the weekly candle. In all, we have seen rise of about 1100 points (24%) in just 7 weeks that too with no correction so far. The last week saw a range of 331 points (High 5700 & Low 5369) and closed at 5590.

While there is nothing to suggest that we will/should have correction if the FII money keeps coming in the way it has done since 20th Dec. However, I do believe the trend line (in blue) on the attached chart should provide a strong resistance. The only indication available today is the very slow pace of shifting to Mar Series of Nifty Future. This does suggest that enthusiasm is vaning at higher level.

If you believe that all markets correct sooner or later, it would be better to wait for a correction to create fresh long positions. Considering that Friday's High price of 5700 is a freak trade and close is at 5590, short position may be considered at higher levels with stop loss of 5675. In the best case scenario, Nifty Future can go up to 5725 (trend line resistance), though it looks unlikely, at least before FNO settlement. On the down side, once Nifty Future trades below 5530, it can go down to 5450.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 17.02.2012

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE :

In today's trading Nifty Future opened a bit weak and remained so till mid day but did not break even the previous day - a first sign of weakness. In the last one hour it inched up to close the day at 5538. Today's narrow range trading can at best be termed as a pause after a big move yesterday. During the day, Nifty Future made a high of 5547 and low of 5501.

For tomorrow, on the higher side it will find strong resistance at 5585 (trend line in red on EOD chart). Short position can either be considered with 5585 as stop loss. Alternatively, short position may be considered below 5500 with stop loss of 5530. On the downside, it will find support at 5450 and 5400.

Once again, tomorrow is the last trading day of the 7th week of sustained rise - with Monday being a trading holiday, it would be interesting to see what indications market will leave for the following week of FNO settlement.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS as market could get volatile ahead of FNO settlement and one trading day less ahead of it.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 16.02.2012

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE:

And one more day of strong opening (gap up) and a strong up move and add to that a strong close. It is difficult to believe that we were looking for a bottom just 2 months back and now left wondering - to see Nifty Future rise, without any menaingful correction. At the current rate of the up move, we can see a new high in March itself !

In the opening session itself Nifty Future managed to cross the major hurdle at 5450 and went up to make the day's high of 5564 and closed strong at 5553. Does it matter what was the day's low? - not really in the current market mood. Considering that I would look for a correction before initiating fresh long, I am dealing with only the levels below which short position may be taken, that too with a strict stop loss. For tomorrow, one can consider going short below 5520 with stop loss of 5565. On the down side, it will find support at 5450 and weakness will accererate only if 5450 level is broken on the closing basis. Its only when Nifty Future goes below 5400, it will be out of the Andrew's Pitchfork.

Assuming that the up move coninues, it can go right up to 5725. Although I do not believe that this could happen.

Whatever may be your view, please do not trade without STOP LOSS and it will safer to trade only in options.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 15.02.2012

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE:

In yesterday's trading, once again we had the same pattern which we have seen for the past few days - sideways movement through the day and new high in the last hour, may be because of short cutting by day traders. Nifty Future made a high of 5454 and low of 5395. It closed the day at 5440.

While Nifty Future did cross 5450 by a few points, but it is also important that it remains so for a while, for us to believe that there is strength to continue higher. On the 30 min chart, Andrew's Pitchfork continues to provide the right guidance - as it has not yet broken the level on the down side, and is also not able to muster strength to cross the median line. As such, with passage of time, the breakdown level is inching up.

For today, I would continue to advise caution and if Nifty Future does not break yesterday's high, will consider Nifty Future to be weak. However, it would be prudent to go short below 5395 with stop loss of 5420. At this level, Nifty Future will also be out of Andrew's Pitchfork and may accelerate the fall. On the down side, it will find support at 5365 and 5320. I would also like to highlight that on the EOD chart, below 5365 Nifty Future will break a trend line, which can accelerate the weakness and hence one need not rush to create long position.

Once again we saw reduction in open interest for Nifty Future - suggesting that smart money is reducing long positions in anticipation of a correction.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 14.02.2012

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE :

The upward bias mentioned in my post yesterday, did materialise but not strong enough for Nifty Future to cross the previous high (sign of weakness?). During the day, Nifty Future made a high of 5445 and low of 5369. The day closed with Nifty Future at 5418. Once again, Andrew's Pitchfork on 30 min chart has provided support to Nifty Future and in a way arrested the fall.

At the cost of repetition, I have maintain that 5450 will provide resistance and in the unlikely event of breakout, it can take Nifty Future to 5500 and 5550.

It would be prudent to go short only below 5365 (with stop loss of 5420), as by then Nifty Future would be out of Andrew's Pitchfork (after a long time) and the fall can accelerate. On the down side, it will find support at 5300 and 5225.

Another important thing I would like to highlight is the lower activity on the option side so far as increase in open interest is concerned and there has been reduction in the open interest for Nifty and Bank Nifty Future - after sustained increase over the past few days.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 13.02.2012

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN

NIFTY FUTURE:

As expected, Nifty Future did correct on Friday, but once again ended the day with a small lower shadow and did not break the previous day's low (5305). During the day, Nifty Future made a high of 5443 and low of 5350. It closed the day at 5397.

As mentioned in the weekly/monthly post, Nifty Future continues to show strength as FII money keeps pouring in. However, on the 30 min chart Nifty Future just managed to stay above the Andrew's Pitchfork line. Having remained above this line since the beginning of the current up move, I am inclined to believe that once Nifty Future moves below the Andrew's Pitchfork line (below 5350), the fall may accelerate - as it would be out of the Andrew's Pitchfork. Second point to note is that all along the up move, Nifty Future has remained below the all important median line.

Secondly, on the EOD chart, RSI is showing signs of fatigue and fall below 5300 will take Nifty Future down to 5270 and 5225.

In view of the above, I would continue to advise caution on the long positions. With DOW showing weakness in Friday's trading, we may see the much awaited correction next week.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR WEEKENDED 10.02.2012

NIFTY FUTURE WEEKLY
Last week was the 5th week with higher top and higher bottom. Though the market did come down on Friday, the net result on the weekly chart is a doji with little long lower shadow suggesting positive bias. During the week, Nifty Future traded in 147 point range (High 5452 & Low 5305) - little less aggressive than the previous weeks.
On the weekly chart 5450 continues to remain a hurdle. On the down side, break of 5300 will take Nifty Future down to 5225. Though monthly and weekly chart continue to show strength, the weakness is apparent on the 30 min chart and the same is dealt with in my daily post.
In the event Nifty Future breaks 5450, it makes the way clear for Nifty Future to test 5725 subject to hurdle at 5500.
If any weakness has to manifest - next week seems to be cruicial, as FNO settlement is scheduled on the 8th trading day from tomorrow.
In view of the high volatility, please do not trade without STOP LOSS.
Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 10.02.2012

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE:

In today's trading Nifty future opened little hesitant and remained volatile throughout the day and in last one hour shot up to the day's high of 5452 and closed at 5437. Despite the bullishness (due to short covering !!) in the hour, Nifty Future did not cross the median line of the Andrew's Pitchfork on the 30 min chart.

With Greek deal done, we have every reason for the party to go full blast - now that it has also crossed previous quarter high at 5403. However, the worrying factor is the one way rise and the premium of Rs. 25 seems to be unsustainable and only indicates short covering. As such, having crossed 5400, even 5725 is possible. But without any correction - I don't think it is feasible. Moreover, the results being announced too are mixed with bias towards major ones being negative.

While correction seems to be a bad word now, one can either participate with strict stop loss or wait for Nifty Future to go below 5390 and go short with stop loss of 5420. On the down side, it will have support at 5325. Below 5325, it will be out of Andrew's Pitchfork and the fall can accelerate. Tomorrow being Friday should give us a correction else we will have a strong weekly close (straight 6 weeks) once again and then next week we will be within striking distance from the major resistance of 5725. Well it sounds good, but looks quite impractical. If you share this view, do take good care of your long positions tomorrow.

In any case, please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 09.02.2012

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE:

One more volatile day of trading, where Nifty Future crossed the previous high as if to just break my stop loss level of 5420 and made the day's high of 5425. In the second session, Nifty Future corrected sharply to make the day's low of 5343 but once again saw an up move to close the day at 5389.

It is important to note that while Nifty Future did make a new high yesterday, but spot Nifty did not. Secondly, on the EOD chart I have marked Andrew's Pitchfork and for the past three days, the top is made just on the median line.

With Asian markets trading weak today, there is good possibility that we may see the much awaited correction today. For this to confirm, Nifty Future must break the previous day's low. For today, I would push the upper stop loss level for short position to 5450. On the down side, one can consider going short below 5375, with stop loss of 5425. On the down side, it will find support at 5290. At the break of 5290, Nifty Future will be out of the Andrew's Pitchfork on the 30 min chart, after many days and take Nifty Future down to 5270.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 08.02.2012

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE:
We had one more day of volatile trading, where Nifty Future made a new high at 5415 but closed weak at 5355 - near the low of the day at 5340. Though spot Nifty did break previous day's low (after 5 days) the same has not yet happened with Nifty Future. However, some of the front line stocks did show weakness.

For tomorrow, one can consider going short below 5330 (with stop loss of 5375) or in the unlikely event of Nifty Future trading higher, one can consider going short with stop loss of 5420.

On the down side, it will find support at 5300 and 5270. Break of 5270 can take Nifty Future down to 5170 and 5135 in the coming days.

Please note that along with anxiety about Greece, the worry on higher crude can spoil the party - though the strength of the rally is much stroner than earlier and hence buying at lower levels is advisable.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 07.02.2012

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE:
In today's trading, Nifty Future opened with a gap and after a volatile trade made a high of 5398 and low of 5333. It closed the day at 5367. As mentioned yesterday, though 5400 is a strong hurdle, Nifty Future did not give up the strength and continued to make higher top / higher bottom even today. On the higher side, crossing of 5405 can take Nifty Future to 5420 and 5450.

For tomorrow, one can consider going short with stop loss of 5420. On the down side, it will find support at 5330 - 5270 and 5225. Once Nifty Future trades below 5270, there is good possibility that Nifty Future can go down to retest the level of 5100.

Caution is advised at higher levels and it is best to consider buying only at lower levels of around 5100.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR WEEKENDED 03.02.2012

NIFTY FUTURE WEEKLY

During the last week, Nifty Future made a higher top / higher bottom for the 5th week straight. The important point to note is that for all the weeks, the close has been strong. All this strength, thanks to FII money returning to Indian markets.

Another important point I would like to highlight is that after over 60 weeks of remaining inside the channel, Nifty Future broke out of the same - indicating strength. For the next week, we have 5400 and 5450 as major hurdles from where Nifty Future can see a 'healthy' correction.

Break of 5270 should be seen as first sign of correction setting in. On the downside 5230 & 5135 should provide support. As long as 5100 is not broken, corrections should be bought.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

PS: There will be no separate post for Monday as the support and resistance levels have been covered above.

TURNING POINTS FOR 03.02.2012

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE:

In yesterday's trading Nifty Future continued its up move and made a new high of 5300 to face trend line resistance as shown on the EOD chart. After the SC judgement on 2G, it showed a sharp correction but only to get back to normalcy thereafter. The EOD candle too shows a doji with long lower shadow which does not suggest weakness yet. However, it is important to note that today's top has faced resistance at the trend line and also an important Fib ratio (not marked on chart).

For today, caution would be the watch word - in view of the important judgement tomorrow and being a Friday it will be important to see at what levels the Nifty Future closes for the week. If you recall, in my earlier post I had mentioned that the current week will be an important one. At least, we have a new top in place and have to see the close today which will indicate if the top will be good for some time to come.

As usual, I would not recommend fresh long positions at higher levels. One can consider going short with stop loss of 5310. On the down side, it will find support at 5200. Fall below 5200 could be sharp, as after a long time, Nifty Future would trade out of the Andrew's Pitchfork shown on the 30 min chart and take Nifty Future quickly to 5100 levels.

Except for the two reasons of topping out mentioned above, Nifty Future does not show any weakness yet, so please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 02.02.2012

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE:

One more day of up move with higher top and higher bottom with Nifty Future going right up to the channel top indicated yesterday (at 5270) where it has made a top of 5272 and closed at 5262 - once again close to the high of the day. The way US & Europe are trading at the time of writing this post, there is every possibility of Nifty Future opening with a gap and take the market above the channel after over a year. Needless to say that it is a bullish sign and should not be ignore.

While the charts are indicating all positive factors, common sense and the impending Gann turn date on 4th Feb suggests that the top may be near. In light of this contradiction, I would like to err on the side of caution, by suggesting not to create fresh long position and be on the side for the next two days.

I would not even advise fresh short position unless Nifty Future gets back inside the channel at 5270. If that happens, one can go short with stop loss of 5300. Safer would be to consider going short only when Nifty Future breaks 5165 with stop loss of 5200.

Please do not force your bearish view unless market shows some sign of tiring. Until then caution is advised.

One strategy that can be considered in the current circumstances is buying 5500 Call (Rs. 25) and 5000 Put (Rs. 30). With a total cost of Rs. 55/- you have the position for the better part of the month and would be a view neutral idea. You can benefit in case there is a big move on either side. Make sure you don't buy just one side and try to save the cost of the other side.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.