TTML & A B NUVO MONTHLY CHART

ADITYA BIRLA NUVO MONTHLY

TTML MONTHLY

  

  

WISHING YOU A VERY HAPPY & PROSPEROUS NEW YEAR.

 

TTML:

 

TTML is a telecom provider and this sector is known for all that can go wrong for the past couple of years. This stock has been trading @ Rs. 11.40 after being beaten down for the past 49 months. From the attached monthly chart, you will observe that this stock has been trading just above Rs. 10 for the past 3 months. More importantly, you will observe that it is now poised to cross the trend line when it starts trading above Rs. 12.30.

 

Considering that the other items of this sector (Bharati, Idea etc.)  are going up, it is just a matter of time when the trend line will be broken on the up side and the current market price provides a low risk opportunity to acquire this stock. On the way up, 15 -19 and 25 will provide resistance.

 

 

A B NUVO:

 

A B Nuvo is a diversified company from Aditya Birla Group. From the attached Monthly chart, you will observe that this Company has been trading in narrow range of Rs. 350 for the past 40 months. This Company has significant holding in IDEA Cellular.

 

With the price of Idea Cellular improving in the past few days, there is a good possibility that market price of this stock will finally break out of the upper range at 1050. Once this break out happens, we can expect the price to go up to 1400-1500 range.

 

Both the above stocks look good to buy at the Current Market price.

 

With Best Wishes,

 

Ketan Asher.

 

 

 



CENTURY TEX WEEKLY CHART

 

CENTURY TEX WEEKLY

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

On the attached weekly chart (Futures), you will observe  that this stock has been making higher top/higher bottm for the past 7 weeks and closed  last week at 391 after making a new 52 week high of 395.

 

My observations are as follows:

 

1.  Current market price (CMP) is close to the previous high of 391 and 397.

2. As shown on the attached chart, CMP  is close to the 50% level of 405.

3. At around 425 we have multiple  resistance of the trend line (in Blue) and Andrew's Pithfork

    Median Line (in Red).

 

In view of the above, 405-425 level could provide strong resistance. Hence, those holding long positions  will do well to trail the position  with stop loss of 380.

 

I must add here that stock will gain strength  when it manages to cross the median line (425) hence short position should be avoided or be held with tight stop loss of 425. Considering that the stock has made a new 52 week high, buy on corrections would be a better strategy.

 

With Best Wishes,

 

Ketan Asher.

13.10.2012



 

 

    DCB MONTHLY CHART

The attached monthly chart of Dev. Credit Bank, indicates that it is ready to break out of a triangle - once it trades above Rs. 44/= during Oct 2012. Considering that it is ready to break out, it would also be good idea to invest even  on declines with stop loss of Rs. 40/=.

 

On the way up, it will find resistance at 53 - 60 and 64. As indicated on the chart, 91 will be a strong resistance  area and triangle target, however that will take some weeks/months.

 

With Best Wishes,

 

Ketan Asher.

BANK NIFTY FUTURE, SBI FUTURE & DCB

SBI FUTURE WEEKLY / DCB MONTHLY

BANK NIFTY FUTURE WEEKLY

BANK NIFTY FUTURE:
In the attached chart you will observe that after taking support on the lower parallel line (in Blue) of Andrew's Pitchfork, Bank Nifty Future has been showing strength for the past five weeks - with the last week's close (10643) near the high of the week.
One can consider going long - on declines, with stop loss of 10500 ( mid-point of the range shown on chart in Red). On the way up, 11000-11200 is a major resistance for various reasons shown on the chart. However, if Bank Nifty Future manages to break the trend line resistance near 11200 levels, it can then go up to 12000-12500 and face resistance (marked in Red downside arrows) at the median line as had happened in the past. Though this sounds like wishful thinking today, it seems possible in the event - RBI reduces the Bank Rate, as was done by ECB last week.
As Bank Nifty shows strength, the same is ought to get reflected in many of the Bank stocks. I have identified two stocks which are discussed below:
SBI FUTURE WEEKLY:
On the attached chart, you will find that the price is ready to move out of the trend line. One can consider going long – on declines, with stop loss of 2150. On the way up, it will face resistance at 2300-2325 and major resistance at 2540-2550 range.
DCB MONTHLY:
On the attached chart, you will find that the price is in the range of 30 to 75 for the past 28 months. It is now close to breaking the triangle formation when the price moves above 49. Considering that Bank stocks are showing strength, one can consider buying the stock in anticipation of the breakout. The stock closed at 45.50 last Friday. One can consider going long – on declines, with stop loss of 42. Though triangle breakout above 49 gives target price of 94 (shown on the chart), on the way up, it will face resistance at 53 – 66 and 75.

Please do not trade/invest without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

SAIL FUTURE WEEKLY CHART

SAIL FUTURE WEEKLY CHART

With markets not only at home but also overseas turning bullish, one should look for buying opportunites. In my view, Nifty Future can - over the next couple of weeks go up to 5600-5700.

With this backdrop, I find SAIL weekly chart given above, gives a safe opportunity for investor/trader.

In the attached chart, you will find that Sail has been consolidatting for the past 19 weeks and is now ready for a breakout from a triangle pattern. The breakout happens at 94 (last weeks' High 92) and gives an eventual target of 141 as shown in the chart. Though the breakout from triangle is at 94, it will gather momentum above 100 (previous High) and face hurdles on the way up at 110 - 116 - 127 and major resistance at 140-145 range.

In view of the above, one can consider going long around 92 with stop loss just below 88. As we are just at the beginning of a new FNO settlement cycle, one can even consider buying Rs. 100 Call available around Rs. 0.75 to Re 1/-. With lot size of 4000 shares this will entail maximum investment/risk of Rs. 4000/- .

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR WEEKENDED 01.06.2012

NIFTY FUTURE WEEKLY / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
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A weak open on Monday and further downside for Nifty Future is a foregone conclusion with our markets closing near the low of the week and furhter confirmed by weakness in US markets.

On the attached EOD chart, I have drawn Andrew's Pitchfork which indicates Median Line support at 4675 and Gap at 4656.

On the attached weekly chart, Andrew's Pitchfork indicates Medain Line support at 4700. Thus reading on both the charts does indicate that their exists good support between 4650 and 4700.

From time and price perspective, it is important to note on the Weekly chart that after bottoming out at 4538 (on 20th Dec'11), Nifty Future went up to 5700 in 8 weeks, whereas the current downside from the high of 5700 level has taken double the time (next week is the 16th week from high of 5700) - suggesting lower velocity during the fall and thus providing good reason for possible support in the 4650-4700 range.

The levels indicated above may be reached during the course of the next week and one can consider buying Nifty Future with strict stop loss of 4600.

Have a nice weekend!

Ketan Asher.

HDFC LTD. WEEKENDED 04.05.2012

HDFC WEEKLY CHART

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This stock has been trading in a narrow range of Rs. 80 for the past 13 weeks. In sync with the market weakness, this stock too has been declining and has closed weak today at 665. However, it remains inside the triangle marked on the attached chart. The downside breakout level is at 650 level.

This is one of the leading Housing Finance Co. with almost 70% of its equity held by FII's. Another noteworthy point in favor of this stock has been that the Company has converted the warrants at Rs. 600 per share and interestingly, this stock has not broken this level for the past 1 year - despite the continued weakness in the market. The Company is scheduled to declare its results/dividend on Monday, 7th May 2012.

As a contrarian trade - considering the current market weakness. one can consider buying the stock at lower levels with stop loss of Rs. 630 or Rs. 600 depending on individual risk profile. In event of good results and market turn around, this stock can see a break out on the higher side at 685 and can offer good profit potential.

Considering that this month's FNO settlement (31st May) is still far away, one can even consider buying call option with strike price of Rs. 680 or Rs. 700 which closed today at Rs. 2.65 & Rs. 6.95 respectively.

As the markets remain weak, please do not forget to keep a suitable stop loss. One can minimize the risk by buying call option as referred above.

Have a nice weekend!

Ketan Asher.

Review of Bank Nifty Future

On 2nd May, I had put up a chart on Bank Nifty Future and had recommended a sell below 10200. Interestingly, the results have been too good and too fast. It closed t weak today at 9793. I would like to remind the readers - particularly those who have sold reading my post, to consider covering the shorts at around 9500 levels as it could provide good support - considering that it is 50% level as well as previous bottom.

BANK NIFTY FUTURE EOD 30TH APR 2012

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BANK  NIFTY  FUTURE :

In the attached Chart, I have marked a triangle which shows that we are close to the apex of the triangle and break out is just a few days away. 

As can be seen on the chart, the upside breakout happens above 10530. While one would like to believe that the break out will be on the up side - with good results announced by leading private sector banks and much awaited cut in repo rates by RBI. However, the fact remains that this optimism is not reflected in the Bank Nifty chart, as we closed today with a  doji on the Monthly candle (not shown)  chart.

In view of the above, one needs to be prepared for a down side breakout in the coming few days and this will get confirmed  once Nifty Future  trades below 10000. On the downside, Bank Nifty Future will find support at 9835 (previous bottom), 9500 and 9200 over the coming days/weeks.

One can consider going short below 10200 with stop loss of 10300.

While the downside target of 8400 looks  unlikely today, one needs to be prepared for it once Bank Nifty Future  trades below 10000.  I am sure the reasons too will follow. Moreover,  you will also find that I have marked arrows on the attached chart which show  'gaps' - and these too have to be filled sooner or later. 

With Best Wishes,

Ketan  Asher.

NIFTY FUTURE QUARTER ENDED MAR 2012

NIFTY FUTURE QUARTERLY

As per the basic charting principles, as the time frame increases - so does the significance of the signals given by the chart. As quarterly chart is next in line to the Annual chart, its significance can not be undermined.

The key features of the Mar 2012 quarter are:

1. During the quarter Nifty Future made a range of 1108 points (High 5700 & Low 4592).

2. After previous 4 quarters of lower top lower bottom formation, we have for the first time, higher top and higher bottom formation - a big positive indeed.

3. The low of the Mar 2012 quarter has taken support on the lower parallel line of the Andrew's Pitchfork drawn in blue.

4.. One negative indication on the chart is given by the upper shadow of the candle. This when seen with the lower top and lower bottom formation on the monthly chart, does not augur well for the sustained up move. The upper shadow indicates selling pressure at higher levels.

5. The major move can now be expected only above previous quarter high (5700) and previous quarter low (4592).

6. During the current quarter (June 2012), on the up side Nifty future will face resistance of the trend line (shown in blue) at 5600. On the down side it will break the lower parallel line of the Andrew's Pitchfork at 4750. Thus giving a range of 850 points before which we can expect any major directional move.

To summarise, I would say that Nifty Future may face strong resistance at 5600 on the up side (considering the upper shadow in Q.E. Mar 2012 candle and Nifty may spend time in this 850 point range during this quarter before we can see any major move.

With Best Wishes for a new Financial Year.

Ketan Asher.

INVESTMENT IDEA - GLENMARK PHARMA

GLENMARK PHARMA WEEKLY

On the attached weekly chart of Glenmark Pharma, you will find that the stock is consolidating for over 2 years in a 135 points range. With the stock now coming near the apex of the triangle, looks ready for upward break out.

Though the breakout takes place at 325, one can consider it for buying above 300 with stop loss of 285. Once it breaks out of 325, it will gain momentum with a target of about 450. On the way up, it will face hurdles at 350 and 390.

Happy Investing!

Ketan Asher.

SPECIAL UPDATE - CENTURY TEXTILES

CENTURY TEXTILES WEEKLY

Regular visitors would recall that I had been updating the weekly chart on this blog for a long time. I have posted this Special Update, as the stock has moved up considerably in the past week and has given a strong breakout with high volumes on the weekly chart.

On the attached chart, you will observe that after consolidating for about 5 weeks, Nifty Future has broken out of Flag pattern with high volumes. While this does indicate strength and augurs well for the stock, one must be careful that it will encounter strong resistance at 385. Further up move to 425 and 485 will be possible only when it manages to cross this hurdle at 385 - being 50% level as well as the trend line.

Continues to remain a good stock to buy on declines.

Another fall out of this up move is that the direct beneficiary will be Pilani Investmets (listed on BSE & NSE) which holds about 30% of this stock besides other investments in Aditya Birla Group and Tata Steel. Though the trading interest is low, it would be a good long term investment considering the strength of its total investments. The Balance Sheet of Pilani Investments makes an interesting reading for long term investor.

Wishing you all a very happy Gudi Padwa!

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 23.03.2012

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE:

After a sharp up move yesterday, Nifty Future made a sharp down move, taking Nifty Future below yesterday's low and thereby creating a panic like situation.

I have updated the blog today with the hope that with the help of the attached charts we can be prepared for tomorrow's trading.

The close does indicate that we may see a weak opening tomorrow, even leading to a gap down open in case the World markets extend weakness. However the brighter side is that we are now close to many supports in the area of 5150 and 5180. Even the Andrew's Pitchfork drawn on the attached chart shows median line support around the same level.

Considering that we had a strong brake out on the weekly chart after range bound trading for 64 weeks, I doubt if this weakness will precipitate into a major downside.

More importantly,tomorrow is a Friday and a time for weekly close. In my view, once the opening session weakness settles down around the levels indicated above, one can consider going long on Nifty Future with stop loss of 5140 or better still buy 5300 call for the current series or the next month - if you are ready to pay little more. Once Nifty Future trades above 5270 level, one can consider that my optimism has some merit.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

IMPORTANT NOTE

With effect from tomorrow, I plan to discontinue the daily/weekly updates. Instead, I will now post stock / index ideas of particular interest occasionally.
As and when I update the blog, I will send an alert tthrough my twitter account.
Moreover, I now plan to start weekly training programmes during market hours. Those interested may write to me at turningpoints.in@gmail.com for details.
Thank you all for visiting my blog.
With Regards,
Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 29.02.2012

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE:

As the world markets were flat to positive yesterday, Nifty Future too opened strong and maintained the up move through the day. May be market realised that yesterday's fall was little over done. Today's close at 5442 is near the top (5459) of the day - suggesting strength. Should be we consider yesterday's sharp fall just as an abberation and expect the market to rally from here? I don't think so, particularly because of the ease with which it broke the support yesterday at 5400 level. Moreover, there are many more hurdles on the way up - particularly at 5480 (shown on 30 min chart) and 5530 (0.618 level). I doubt if this resistance will get cleared in a hurry.

For tomorrow, one can consider going short below 5420 with stop loss of 5470. Altertantively, one can consider going short at higher levels around 5480 with stop loss of 5520. Considering that US and European markets are flat at the time of writing this post, there is a possibility that Nifty Future may open strong and test higher levels at 5480.

I do not advise going long at higher levels.

As regards the Index option chain data, I find that there has been considerable addition in open interest on the put side. Interestingly, there has been reduction in open interest in respect of Bank Nifty Future - suggesting liqidation of long position at higher levels.

I would consider tomorrow to be an important day for the near term trend of the market, as I believe that in case Nifty Future moves below 5300 levels, it will break the trend line on the EOD chart and that will entail deeper correction for the next few days.

Whatever may be your view, please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 28.02.2012

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE:

In today's trading, Nifty Future opened weak and maintained downside bias which accelerated once Nifty Future broke 5400. It closed the day (5339) weak near the low of the day (5326). As Nifty Future broke 5400 effortlessly, there was a sharp fall across the sectors.

Considering the sharp fall today, I would expect Nifty Future to take respite tomorrow at 5300 levels, particularly because there is a trend line support. However, if this level (5300) too is broken effortlessly, then we can expect a deeper correction.

Assuming that 5300 is held as, one can consider going long at lower levels with stop loss of 5270. On the higher side it will face resistance at 5420 and 5465. At least for now, this should be considered as a bounce and long position should be liquidated at higher levels indicated above.

It is advisable to avoid short position at lower levels unless 5300 is broken.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 27.02.2012

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE:

Having come of the Andrew's Pitchfork, Nifty Future continued to maintain downside bias in Friday's trading. It left the previous gap at 5454 unfilled by just 2 points (low of 5456).

For tomorrow. break of 5450 will take Nifty Future down to an important support level at 5403 (High of previous quarter). There could be a bounce from this level up to 5500 and the same should be factored into your trading. Its only when 5400 is broken, we will have more down side, which can take Nifty Future down to 5300 and 5270.

On the higher side 5555 will provide resistance and this level should be used as stop loss of short positions.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR WEEKENDED 24.02.2012

NIFTY FUTURE WEEKLY
The 8th week has finally given much awaited correction and an opportunity to buy at lower levels. The last week saw a small trading range of 179 points (High 5635 & Low of 5456) but neither broke the previous week's high nor low. It closed the week at 5487 - near the low of the week, suggesting weakness to continue for the next week.

For the coming week, down side break of 5400 will accelerate the fall where as on the higher side 5555 will provide resistance.

Break of 5400 will take Nifty Future down to 5270 and 5150 and these levels can be used for buying for a possible rally around budget time.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 24.02.2012

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE:

In volatile trade, FNO settlement took place today on a bearish note. Intrestingly, Nifty Future has finally come out of the Andrew's Pitchfork on the 30 min chart. On the same chart you will also find that intra day, Nifty Future retraced without being able to move inside it. Secondly, on the EOD chart you will find that Nifty Future has moved below the trend line - suggesting weakness.

During the day Nifty Future made a high of 5542 and low of 5465. Though it closed today at 5488 for tomorrow's reference point we have to consider Mar series which closed at 5537.

Tomorrow's trading has to be seen in context of it being the last trading day of the 8th week of up move. Will Nifty Future be able to close near the high of this week - for the straight 8th week? To me this looks unlikely - more so because Nifty Future has not even crossed the previous weeks' high yet and hence lower high is already in place. It is likely that Nifty Future can go up to 5585 and find resistance. Short position may be considered at this level with stop loss of 5625. On the down side, it will find support at 5510 - 5465 and 5420.

As regards the Index options data, there has been considerable increase on the put side for Mar series - once again suggesting weakness ahead. I would not advise fresh long position at higher levels as close around 5550 will indicate weakness for the next week.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 23.02.2012

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE:
And finally, we saw a correction in Nifty Future, which took everyone by surprise for its intensity. After a stable opening Nifty Future did make an attempt to inch up, but could not manage higher than previous day. In today's trading, Nifty Future made a high of 5433 and low of 5502. It closed the day at 5518. On the EOD chart you will find that Nifty Future has taken support on the trend line. The fall was sharp in case of Bank Nifty Future. May be that's why it is said "Higher you go - harder you fall".

At the outset, I must say that this fall should be considered as a correction of a steep rise. For tomorrow, we can expect a weak opening and Nifty Future can go down to 5440 and find good support. In case this level is breached, we have support at 5400. Either of this level can be used to create long position, with stop loss of 5400/5365 as the case may be.

I would not advise going short tomorrow at lower levels. Instead, long position may be created as indicated above. I would also like to highlight that Mar series is trading at premium of Rs. 40/- and this could lead to a higher opening on Friday as compared to tomorrow and thus Nifty Future looking weak tomorrow at close, may look stronger when it opens for trading on Friday. So do keep this point in mind while trading.

Expect higher volatility tomorrow and hence please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 22.02.2012

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE:

In today's trading, Nifty Future traded in a narrow range of 65 points (High 5635 & Low 5570) and closed at 5622. The days' up move was mainly led by Banks and Reliance,

While the announcement of Greece deal did boost our market sentiment, interestingly the European markets are trading weak.

For tomorrow, short position may be taken at higher levels with stop loss of 5675 or alternatively below 5560 with stop loss of 5600. Nifty Future will find support at 5500 and 5450.

As mentioned yesterday, at higher levels 5725 will provide tough resistance due to trend line on the Weekly chart.

I continue to recommend to buy on declines though break of even previous day low is still no where in sight. I am sure those who have patience will get rewarded, if not till this Thursday, may be soon thereafter.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 21.02.2012

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE :

In Friday's trading, Nifty Future opened with 5700 as Open = High, but remained weak thereafter. It closed the day at 5590 with days' low as 5565. Nifty Future continues to remain just below the median line (but inside) of the Andrew's Pitchfork on the 30 min chart.

As mentioned in the weekly post, only indication for impending correction comes from the lower shifting of Nifty Future position to Mar series though it can change over the next 3 days of trading.

For tomorrow, one can consider going short below 5590 with stop loss of 5625. On the down side, Nifty Future will find support at 5530 and 5450.

Considering the up move in US/European markets, we too may see up move which can take Nifty Future back to 5675 levels. This can be used to go short with stop loss of 5725.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR WEEKENDED 17.02.2012

NIFTY FUTURE WEEKLY

Last week saw 7th week of sustained up move, with only a small upper shadow on the weekly candle. In all, we have seen rise of about 1100 points (24%) in just 7 weeks that too with no correction so far. The last week saw a range of 331 points (High 5700 & Low 5369) and closed at 5590.

While there is nothing to suggest that we will/should have correction if the FII money keeps coming in the way it has done since 20th Dec. However, I do believe the trend line (in blue) on the attached chart should provide a strong resistance. The only indication available today is the very slow pace of shifting to Mar Series of Nifty Future. This does suggest that enthusiasm is vaning at higher level.

If you believe that all markets correct sooner or later, it would be better to wait for a correction to create fresh long positions. Considering that Friday's High price of 5700 is a freak trade and close is at 5590, short position may be considered at higher levels with stop loss of 5675. In the best case scenario, Nifty Future can go up to 5725 (trend line resistance), though it looks unlikely, at least before FNO settlement. On the down side, once Nifty Future trades below 5530, it can go down to 5450.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 17.02.2012

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE :

In today's trading Nifty Future opened a bit weak and remained so till mid day but did not break even the previous day - a first sign of weakness. In the last one hour it inched up to close the day at 5538. Today's narrow range trading can at best be termed as a pause after a big move yesterday. During the day, Nifty Future made a high of 5547 and low of 5501.

For tomorrow, on the higher side it will find strong resistance at 5585 (trend line in red on EOD chart). Short position can either be considered with 5585 as stop loss. Alternatively, short position may be considered below 5500 with stop loss of 5530. On the downside, it will find support at 5450 and 5400.

Once again, tomorrow is the last trading day of the 7th week of sustained rise - with Monday being a trading holiday, it would be interesting to see what indications market will leave for the following week of FNO settlement.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS as market could get volatile ahead of FNO settlement and one trading day less ahead of it.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 16.02.2012

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE:

And one more day of strong opening (gap up) and a strong up move and add to that a strong close. It is difficult to believe that we were looking for a bottom just 2 months back and now left wondering - to see Nifty Future rise, without any menaingful correction. At the current rate of the up move, we can see a new high in March itself !

In the opening session itself Nifty Future managed to cross the major hurdle at 5450 and went up to make the day's high of 5564 and closed strong at 5553. Does it matter what was the day's low? - not really in the current market mood. Considering that I would look for a correction before initiating fresh long, I am dealing with only the levels below which short position may be taken, that too with a strict stop loss. For tomorrow, one can consider going short below 5520 with stop loss of 5565. On the down side, it will find support at 5450 and weakness will accererate only if 5450 level is broken on the closing basis. Its only when Nifty Future goes below 5400, it will be out of the Andrew's Pitchfork.

Assuming that the up move coninues, it can go right up to 5725. Although I do not believe that this could happen.

Whatever may be your view, please do not trade without STOP LOSS and it will safer to trade only in options.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 15.02.2012

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE:

In yesterday's trading, once again we had the same pattern which we have seen for the past few days - sideways movement through the day and new high in the last hour, may be because of short cutting by day traders. Nifty Future made a high of 5454 and low of 5395. It closed the day at 5440.

While Nifty Future did cross 5450 by a few points, but it is also important that it remains so for a while, for us to believe that there is strength to continue higher. On the 30 min chart, Andrew's Pitchfork continues to provide the right guidance - as it has not yet broken the level on the down side, and is also not able to muster strength to cross the median line. As such, with passage of time, the breakdown level is inching up.

For today, I would continue to advise caution and if Nifty Future does not break yesterday's high, will consider Nifty Future to be weak. However, it would be prudent to go short below 5395 with stop loss of 5420. At this level, Nifty Future will also be out of Andrew's Pitchfork and may accelerate the fall. On the down side, it will find support at 5365 and 5320. I would also like to highlight that on the EOD chart, below 5365 Nifty Future will break a trend line, which can accelerate the weakness and hence one need not rush to create long position.

Once again we saw reduction in open interest for Nifty Future - suggesting that smart money is reducing long positions in anticipation of a correction.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 14.02.2012

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE :

The upward bias mentioned in my post yesterday, did materialise but not strong enough for Nifty Future to cross the previous high (sign of weakness?). During the day, Nifty Future made a high of 5445 and low of 5369. The day closed with Nifty Future at 5418. Once again, Andrew's Pitchfork on 30 min chart has provided support to Nifty Future and in a way arrested the fall.

At the cost of repetition, I have maintain that 5450 will provide resistance and in the unlikely event of breakout, it can take Nifty Future to 5500 and 5550.

It would be prudent to go short only below 5365 (with stop loss of 5420), as by then Nifty Future would be out of Andrew's Pitchfork (after a long time) and the fall can accelerate. On the down side, it will find support at 5300 and 5225.

Another important thing I would like to highlight is the lower activity on the option side so far as increase in open interest is concerned and there has been reduction in the open interest for Nifty and Bank Nifty Future - after sustained increase over the past few days.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 13.02.2012

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN

NIFTY FUTURE:

As expected, Nifty Future did correct on Friday, but once again ended the day with a small lower shadow and did not break the previous day's low (5305). During the day, Nifty Future made a high of 5443 and low of 5350. It closed the day at 5397.

As mentioned in the weekly/monthly post, Nifty Future continues to show strength as FII money keeps pouring in. However, on the 30 min chart Nifty Future just managed to stay above the Andrew's Pitchfork line. Having remained above this line since the beginning of the current up move, I am inclined to believe that once Nifty Future moves below the Andrew's Pitchfork line (below 5350), the fall may accelerate - as it would be out of the Andrew's Pitchfork. Second point to note is that all along the up move, Nifty Future has remained below the all important median line.

Secondly, on the EOD chart, RSI is showing signs of fatigue and fall below 5300 will take Nifty Future down to 5270 and 5225.

In view of the above, I would continue to advise caution on the long positions. With DOW showing weakness in Friday's trading, we may see the much awaited correction next week.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR WEEKENDED 10.02.2012

NIFTY FUTURE WEEKLY
Last week was the 5th week with higher top and higher bottom. Though the market did come down on Friday, the net result on the weekly chart is a doji with little long lower shadow suggesting positive bias. During the week, Nifty Future traded in 147 point range (High 5452 & Low 5305) - little less aggressive than the previous weeks.
On the weekly chart 5450 continues to remain a hurdle. On the down side, break of 5300 will take Nifty Future down to 5225. Though monthly and weekly chart continue to show strength, the weakness is apparent on the 30 min chart and the same is dealt with in my daily post.
In the event Nifty Future breaks 5450, it makes the way clear for Nifty Future to test 5725 subject to hurdle at 5500.
If any weakness has to manifest - next week seems to be cruicial, as FNO settlement is scheduled on the 8th trading day from tomorrow.
In view of the high volatility, please do not trade without STOP LOSS.
Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 10.02.2012

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE:

In today's trading Nifty future opened little hesitant and remained volatile throughout the day and in last one hour shot up to the day's high of 5452 and closed at 5437. Despite the bullishness (due to short covering !!) in the hour, Nifty Future did not cross the median line of the Andrew's Pitchfork on the 30 min chart.

With Greek deal done, we have every reason for the party to go full blast - now that it has also crossed previous quarter high at 5403. However, the worrying factor is the one way rise and the premium of Rs. 25 seems to be unsustainable and only indicates short covering. As such, having crossed 5400, even 5725 is possible. But without any correction - I don't think it is feasible. Moreover, the results being announced too are mixed with bias towards major ones being negative.

While correction seems to be a bad word now, one can either participate with strict stop loss or wait for Nifty Future to go below 5390 and go short with stop loss of 5420. On the down side, it will have support at 5325. Below 5325, it will be out of Andrew's Pitchfork and the fall can accelerate. Tomorrow being Friday should give us a correction else we will have a strong weekly close (straight 6 weeks) once again and then next week we will be within striking distance from the major resistance of 5725. Well it sounds good, but looks quite impractical. If you share this view, do take good care of your long positions tomorrow.

In any case, please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 09.02.2012

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE:

One more volatile day of trading, where Nifty Future crossed the previous high as if to just break my stop loss level of 5420 and made the day's high of 5425. In the second session, Nifty Future corrected sharply to make the day's low of 5343 but once again saw an up move to close the day at 5389.

It is important to note that while Nifty Future did make a new high yesterday, but spot Nifty did not. Secondly, on the EOD chart I have marked Andrew's Pitchfork and for the past three days, the top is made just on the median line.

With Asian markets trading weak today, there is good possibility that we may see the much awaited correction today. For this to confirm, Nifty Future must break the previous day's low. For today, I would push the upper stop loss level for short position to 5450. On the down side, one can consider going short below 5375, with stop loss of 5425. On the down side, it will find support at 5290. At the break of 5290, Nifty Future will be out of the Andrew's Pitchfork on the 30 min chart, after many days and take Nifty Future down to 5270.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.