TURNING POINTS FOR 30.08.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE :
Finally Nifty Future saw a good up side after opening on a strong note. On the 30 min chart it maintained higher bottom / higher top. During the day, it made a high of 4948 and low of 4802. It closed firm at 4933. It is intresting to note that despite the strength shown today, Nifty Future could not cross the trend line on the EOD chart.
For the up move to continue tomorrow, it has to cross 4965. Moreover, it will face strong resistance at 5000 level. Fresh long position may be taken with strict stop loss of 4875. Secondly, if Nifty Future remains below 4900, it would remain below the Trend Line on the EOD chart, which would cap the uo move - particulraly in light of the 2 day holiday on Wdnesday and Thursday.
Short position may be taken when Nifty Future reaches around 5000 level with strict stop loss of 5050. The fall will accelerate below 4875 and Nifty Future can go down to 4800 level.
Put Call Ratio of Index Options was at 1.10.
Please do not trade with out STOP LOSS.
With Best Wishes,
Ketan Asher.

TURING POINTS FOR 29.08.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE:

In Friday's trading NIfty Future remained weak throughout the day, after making an effort to go up in the early trading. Nifty Future managed to make a low of 4718 and closed the day at 4749.

As being mentioned by me, we are close to the multiple support zone and I expect a bounce. The first indication of the turn around will be when Nifty Future moves above 4800 and the up move will sustain when it manages to cross 4900 - trend line on the EOD chart.

For tomorrow, one can cosider going long with stop loss of 4700. On the higher side, it will find resistance at 4800 - 4850 and 4900. I have been suggesting buying in the cash market for the past few days.

While I do expect the markets to bottom out for the short term, please do remember that next week, we have two holidays (Wednesday & Thursday) and hence cautiousness will prevail.

I would not advise going short at lower levels.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR WEEKENDED 26.08.2011

NIFTY FUTURE WEEKLY

During the past week, Nifty Future continued to make lower top / lower bottom on the weekly chart and saw a range of 255 points (High 4973 & Low of 4718). It finally closed at 4749 near the low of the week.

On the weekly chart you will observe that past 4 weeks' movement has decisively broken the strong support area marked in yellow ellipse. As such, this area provided support on previous two occasions.

Last week saw consistent fall which has taken Nifty Future close to the support area and I expect a bounce from this level. This bounce can take Nifty Future even up to 5300 levels. Once Nifty Future moves above 4900, it would confirm the up move as Nifty Future would cross the trend line on the EOD chart.

Have a nice weekend!

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 26.08.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE:
In the day's trading, Nifty Future remained highly volatile with a downward bias. The only consolation for the day was that Nifty Future did not break the previous low of 4801. The day's close at 4842 does indicate weakness and possibilty of Nifty Future going down to test 4750 (4740 more likely) tomorrow can not be ruled out.
For tomorrow short position can be taken below 4850 with stop loss of 4900. On the down side it will find support at 4800 - 4750 and 4680. In the event Nifty Future shows stabilising at 4750 level, one can consider going long with about 30 point stop loss. Considering the high volatility, buying in cash market is a better/safer option.
Put Call Ratio of Index Options increased to 1.05 as against 0.98 yesterday.
If we have to see the upmove next week - as I anticipate, we must have a sharp upmove from the support level of 4750 - as tomorrow being the last day of the week and Weekly candle should reflect the same. For this purpose close near to 4850 will be more appropriate. In other words, if this does not happen, we must assume that some more downside is left next week.
All this goes to suggest, please do not trade without STOP LOSS.
With Best Wishes,
Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 25.08.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE:

Contrary to my expectation, Nifty Future did not show the positive effect of strong US/Eurpoean markets. The fact that in early trades it did not even clear yesterday's high of 4973, made it clear that all was not well. During the day Nifty Future made high of 4961, low of 4867 and closed the day at 4883. The weakness in Bank Nifty was more profound mainly due to fall in banking stocks like Axis Bank and SBI.
Today's close does not augur well for tomorrow as the close is near to the day's low. Moreover, tomorrow being FNO settlement day can only lead to higher volatility. One can consider going short below 4850 with stop loss of 4900. On the down side, it will find support at 4800 and (much awaited) 4750. One can consider making delivery based buying at lower levels.
In the event market goes up - ideally without breaking the previous low of 4800, one can consider going long above 4900 with stop loss of 4850. On the higher side, it will find resistance at 4975 and strong resistance at 5030.
Put Call Ratio of Index Options increased to 0.98 as against 0.93 yesterday.
Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.
With Best Wihses,
Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 24.08.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE:
After a firm opening, Nifty Future remained volatile but maintained upward bias. The best part was that it made a higher bottom / higher top and thus confirming my optimism that Nifty Future will move up. The day's high was at 4973 and low was at 4865. It finally closed the day at 4947.
Considering the up move in US/European markets, we can expect a firm opening tomorrow. Long position may be taken with a stop loss of 4890. On the higher side, it will find strong resistance around 5040 levels. In case this level is crossed it will find hurdle at 5100 level.
I would like to caution here that in the unlikely event of Nifty Future moving below 4850, one can consider going short with stop loss of 4900, as Nifty Future can go to make a new low to test 4750.
Put Call Ratio of Index Options remained almost unchanged at 0.93 as against 0.91 yesterday.
In view of the FNO Settlement scheduled for Thursday, volatililty will be high and hence don't forget to put STOP LOSS.
With Best Wishes,
Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 23.08.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE:
And finally Nifty Future had a good close at 4910. When in the first session which was quite volatile, Nifty Future did not break the previous low of 4801, it confirmed my view that a bounce was likely. The day's high was at 4922 and low was at 4816. The best part of today's trading was that breadth of the market remianed positive and the close has been near the high of the day - suggesting firm opening tomorrow.
For tomorrow, one can consider going long with stop loss of 4870. On the higher side, it will find resistance at 4950 and strong resistance at 5025 level. It is quite likely that Nifty Future will retrace significantly from this level and hence caution is advised. Moreover, it must be understood at this stage that this is just a pull back after consistent fall of over 900 points in about 2 weeks.
Put Call Ratio of Index Options decreased to 0.91 as against 1.04 on the previous trading day.
As we approach the settlement day, volatile can only increase - hence trade with caution and of course, don't forget to use STOP LOSS.
With Best Wishes,
Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 22.08.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE:
On last Friday, Nifty Future opened with down side gap and continued its downward journey to make a low at 4801 and closed at 4851. The EOD candle gives some hope since it has left lower shadow and it gets significance because the bounce has come from the support level. Secondly, we have FNO settlement scheduled for next Thursday which can help market go upto 5000
For tomorrow, one can consider going long with 4800 as a strict stop loss. On the higher side, it will face resistance at 4920-4950- 4970 and 5010. As we are near to the support region of 4750-4800, I would not advise going short at lower levels.
As the US markets continue to be weak with no sign of reversal yet, cautious approach is a must. Moreover, not withstanding my optimism for a bounce, Nifty Future can still go down to test the level of 4750 and hence aggresive approach should be avoided and delivery based buying should be a preferred option.
Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.
With Best Wishes,
Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR WEEKENDED 19.08.2011

NIFTY FUTURE WEEKLY

The fourth consecutive down week ended weak, in sync with the World markets. The week saw a range of 339 points (High 5140 & Low 4801). The weak finally closed at 4851. The only positive part in an otherwise bleak scenario is that we have multiple support at 4750-4800 region and Nifty Future has shown a candle with long lower shadow. I will deal with the same in my regular post for Monday.

Another point I would like to highlight is that we are close to 25% level (4762) from the High of 6349. A bounce from this level is most likely as I have been stating for some time now. It may be just a coincidence that Friday's low of 4800 was too close to the level given in my post and looking at the EOD Candle, I expect that it will hold. However, upside will gather momentum only when Nifty Future trades above 4950. I do hope that FNO settlement next week will provide the necessary impetus for Nifty Future to give much need bounce.

Have a nice week end!

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 19.08.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE:

While normally we look for guidance from US/European markets for cues, it seems today they are following us.

After a weak opening, Nifty Future saw a relentless and all round fall for the remaining day. During the day, Nifty Future made a high/low and close of 5075, 4926 and 4938 respectively. Needless to say that we had a weak close and at the time of writing US/European markets down by over 3%, suggesting further weakness for tomorrow.

We are now outside the triangle shown in yesterday's post and have also made a new 52 week low. In case the World markets close weak as they are now, in all probability we should see a gap down open. I do not advise going short, in the event of a gap down opening. Once below 4920, we have support near 4800 and then 4750. As I have been mentioning for sometime now, at these levels (4750-4800), in my opinion we are close to bottom for now and see a bounce. As such, I would advise closing all short positions if markets hit a panic button tomorrow.

Just ask yourself - isn't 4800 level a better level to buy then a buying at 5500-5700 levels which we saw just 2 weeks back? Please note that I am referring to delivery based buying or buying low priced calls for Sept series. In any case it would be prudent to liquidate the Puts if you have bought them in the last couple of days, as time to the settlement date is running out.
Put Call Ratio of Index Options remained almost unchanged at 1.04 as against 1.05 on the previous trading day.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS and certainly don't panic.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 18.08.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE :

In today's trading, Nifty Future after a firm opening - once again maintained downward bias. The weakness was more accentuated in Bank Nifty which made a new 52 week low.

During the day, Nifty Future made High of 5125 and low of 5014. It ended weak at 5067.

On the attached 30 min chart you will find that past few days price action shows that it is moving within in a triangle formation with a lower breakout point at 5000 and higher breakout level at 5150. Breakout on either side could give a 250 point move. One positive for the day was that Nifty Future did not break the previous low - at least for today.

For tomorrow, it would be safer to follow the level given above - sell below 5000 with stop loss of 5050. If Nifty Future has to achieve the target of 250 points mentioned above, we get the level of 4750. Incidentally, it comes close to the level of 4770 indicated in my weekly post. I must add here, that this level of 4750-4800 will be achieved only after the level of 4920 is breached.

I have not indicated a buy above 5150 as my bias remains for Nifty Future achieving the target of around 4750 as discussed in my weekly post. Existing short positions should be held with a stop loss of 5125.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options remained almost unchanged at 1.05 as against 1.07 yesterday.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 17.08.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE:

In a day filled with action even before the markets opened for trading, Nifty Future opened firm on the back of strength shown by US markets. However, this strength could take Nifty Future only to the high of 5140 in the early trades. The strength started receding thereafter (more so after European markets opened weak) and Nifty Future went down to the low of 5006 and finally closed the day at 5028.

We are now at a striking distance from the previous low of 4951. With US markets weak at the time of writing this post there is a good possibility of we breaking this level tomorrow. On the down side, it will find support at 4900-4920 and thereafter at 4770 (.382 level). As mentioned in the weekly post, I expect Nifty Future to bounce from this level. One can consider going long at this level with a suitable stop loss of around 50 points.

Short position should be held with stop loss of 5085.

It would be prudent to sell the puts one has bought, as the time value is eroding very fast - with just about a week left for expiry.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options increased to 1.07 as against 0.98 on the previous trading day.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS - in these dynamic times.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 16.08.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE:
After a long weekend, we have markets opening tomorrow to weak results announced by SBI and the beginning of Anna Hazare's movement against Corruption. While this movement by itself may not have much to do with the markets, but if not handled deftly by the Govt. and if things go out of hand, it can certainly have implications on an already weak market. The good part in favor of the bulls is the strength shown by US markets for two trading sessions when we were closed.
On Friday last, Nifty Future closed at 5080. The weak results announced by SBI may affect the sentiments in the opening session and can take markets down to 5000 levels. Long positions may be taken, at lower levels in the event previous low of 4951 is not broken.
In the unlikely event of markets showing stregth in the opening session, momentum will return only when Nifty Future trades above 5180 - thats nearly 100 points away. I would not advise going long except at the lower levels that too with stop loss of 4950.
Put Call Ratio of Index Options decreased to 0.98 as against 1.27 on the previous trading day.
Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.
With Best Wishes,
Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR WEEKENDED 12.08.2011

NIFTY FUTURE WEEKLY

During the last week, Nifty Future made a range of 272 points with a new 52 Weekk low (High 5223 & Low 4951). It ended the week at 5080 - near the mid-point of the week and leaving no clear guidance for the next week. However, lower top / lower bottom does indicate weakness in the markets.

Though we will be guided more by the US/European markets, two local events too may influence our markets viz. Weak results from SBI and indefinite fast by Mr. Anna Hazare.

In light of these events, Nifty Future may make a low near 4770 (0.382 level) and bounce back from there.

In case this happens, I would not rule out pull back till 5300 - to fill the gap. It could be a good trading opportunity to buy at lower levels i.e. near 4750-4800 for trading purpose. It will be better to be out of puts next week, as we would be nearing FNO settlement soon thereafter.

Have a nice weekend!

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 12.08.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE:

Contrary to my expectatons, we did not see any panic in today's trading. At the same time, Nifty future did not go higher too, and gave up most of the gains by end of the trading session. Overall a fairly narrow range day with High of 5187 and Low of 5122. It closed the day weak at 5137 - even when Eurpean markets were trading higher.

At the time of writing this post, US/Europe are trading about 2% higher. Considering today's close and higher inflation figures announced today, we may not see much strength tomorrow.

If Nifty Future trades above 5180, it will find resistance at 5250 and then go to fill the gap at 5330. Short cutting beyond 5180, may take Nifty Future to 5250, but then going to 5330 looks unlikely to me, as no one would like to take the risk of long weekend - in view of the holiday on Monday. I would therfore advise caution at higher levels and long psotions are best avoided.

On the down side, one can consider going short below 5120, with Stop loss at 5170. On the down side, 5080 may provide support. On break of 5080, Nifty Future may go down to 5000 levels. As such, any close below 5080 should be considered weak for the next week.
Put Call Ratio of Index Options increased to 1.27 as against 1.19 yesterday.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 11.08.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE:

In today's trading, Nifty Future opened with a upside gap but capped further up move when it made 5223 as Open = High. For better part of the day, Nifty Future moved in a narrow range of 5150 and 5180. It finally closed the day at 5159.

At the time of writing this post, when US & Europe markets are down by about 3% what happened during our trading hours is history. If these markets continue to bleed till the time they close, we should once again see Nifty Future going down. For tomorrow, one can consider going short when Nifty Future trades below 5120 with a stop loss of 5170.

On the down side, it will find support at 5050. The fall will accelerate below 5050 and Nifty Future will retest yesterday's level of 4950. Below this, we have 4900-4920 as support area. Needless to mention that these support levels are good to square up your short positions and not to go long. The way things are, 4770 referred to in the last weekends' post, seems to be a distinct possibility.

I would also like to caution, that we have a long weekend ahead - with Holiday on Monday. I don't think much should be expected of Friday's trading as no trader would like to leave open trades in these volatile times. Please factor this information in your trading strategy from tomorrow itself.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options decreased to 1.19 as against 1.24 yesterday.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 10.08.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE:
As expected, Nifty Future opened with downside Gap and made the day's low of 4951 and never to come back again. Nifty Future sharply moved up to make the day's high of 5173 but came down sharply after European markets opened weak. A volatile day that finally closed at 5083.
For tomorrow, we can see the up move continuing which should be considered merely as a bounce and may be the worst is not yet over. Long positions may be taken with stop loss of 5075. On the higher side we have resistance at 5120 and 5165. Once this level is crossed we may see good momentum which could take the Nifty Future to 5250 and eventually to 5330 to fill the gap as shown on the EOD chart (must see).
As mentioned earlier, this up move should be considered only as a "dead cat bounce" after a fall of about 10% in 9 days. Moreover, there has been considerable addition (over 58 Lakhs) in the 4300 to 4500 Puts which should not be ignored. In the event Nifty Future goes up as indicated above, it would make a good contrarian trade to buy 4700 Puts which should be available at about 25, once Nifty Future trades above 5200. I am sure those who had the wisdom of buying 5000 puts must have gained substantially and they will do well to buy as stated above for a small portion of their profit. Who knows, with GOD willing, they may be in for a second bounty for the month. Please do not get carried away by the up move and stay light with long positions particularly with futures. Please remember that US down rating is not an event that can be wished away in a day or two, and if the AAA rating has such a significance than the implications should be far reaching in terms of time as well as the consequences.
Put Call ratio of Index Options increased to 1.24 as against 1.16 yesterday.
Please (read it twice) do not trade without STOP LOSS.
With Best Wishes,
Ketan Asher.
PS : Those readers who are interested in tracking FNO data during market hours, should visit www.nseinda.com and select Live markets and Equity Derivatives. I find the information quite interesting and to top it all - its free!

TURNING POINTS FOR 09.08.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE :

As expected, Nifty Future opened with a downside gap and made a low of 5057 in the 1st hour of trade. In a surprise move, it went up to fill the morning gap and made a high of 5208. It could not sustain at higher levels after Europe markets opened and finally Nifty Future closed at 5126. The EOD candle is a doji, indicating indecision. Though the we had a volatile day, it wasn't as bad - may be because all were ready for much worse.

Our opening session will be influenced by how bad the US markets close today. At the time of writing this post the Companies which were backed by US Govt. too have been downgraded by S & P and this will definitely not go well with the markets and the slide may continue.

In such a scenario, we too can have a weak opening. Short position may be taken below 5120 with a stop loss of 5165. On the down side, it will find support at 5050, 5000 and 4920.

With addition of 24 Lakh Puts of 4700 strike price today, the worst may not yet be over.

Considering the way Nifty Future bounced back today, we must factor the possibility of Nifty Future showing strength above 5165 - atleast to fill the gap left on Friday's opening session i.e. near to 5335 level.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options was at 1.16 today.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FFOR 08.08.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE :
On Friday, Nifty Future opened with a downside gap and went down to make the low of 5115 and bounced back sharply to close the day at 5211.
This is old news, in the light of down grading of US credit rating after the close of US makrets on Friday. It is common knowledge that we will be facing the aftermath of this rating tomorrow and am sure it will be chaotic, to say the least. How this credit rating will affect the World markets itself is a subject of debate and is being dealt with by experts on various channels. Before we start trading, we will get some guidance from Asian markets as well as SGX Nifty.
For tomorrow, one can consider going short below 5165 with stop loss of 5215. On the down side, it will find support at 5000, 4920 and finally at 4770 which is a previous support as well as .382 level as shown on the Weekly chart.
Will we do too bad tomorrow? I wish I had the answer.
Tomorrow's market will be largely driven by the fear factor amongst the traders as well as the intensity of FII selling. Hence, any attempt to guess the levels is a futile excersie. It will be better to stay aside for a day or two, till the things are clearer and we also know how the US market reacts tomorrow.
Those holding puts will do well to sell them and book profits at every level indicated above. After all, just like fear, greed too is a traders biggest weakness. Before tomorrow's opening session please avoid watching various channels and read too many opinions - as they may not help you much but only cloud your own judgement. Better to let the market open and face the situation as it evolves.
It is best to avoid bottom fishing - unless you know the bottom. Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.
With Best Wishes,
Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR WEEKENDED 05.08.2011

NIFTY FUTURE WEEKLY

The week saw Nifty Future make a range of 442 points (High of 5557 & Low of 5115), probably the biggest range in past many weeks. This week Nifty Future also saw a break down from the trend line and closed decisively below it at 5211.

While many reasons are emerging for further downside, the leading one being - downgrade of US credit rating by one notch from AAA by S&P. To the best of my knowledge, the downgrade was announced after the US markets closed and hence the effect of the same is not reflected in their closing prices.

The well known author Nassim Taleb may have considered this as one of "The Black Swan" events. Just as many of us may not have even known that US had a credit rating of AAA, very few would know the implications of the same. This can only lead to chaos in the markets, particularly ours which has to not only deal with our own local problems but also have to face the onslaught of FII selling.

All this can take Nifty Future down to 4770 (38.2%) and thereafter to 4300(50%) over time. As shown on the attached chart, last weeks' triangle breakout has a target of 4250. Hence at this stage, I would put my bets on expecting Nifty Future making 4300 in the coming weeks.

Those who had the wisdom to buy 5000 Puts have a very good chance to thrive in the chaso that is likely next week. The levels given above are only indicative at this stage and unlikely to be reached next week itself, hence profti booking in 5000 Puts at every decline, will be a prudent thing to do.

Have a nice weekend & Keep Learning!

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 05.08.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE:
As the time is short I have changed today's format of this post.
1. It seems that the effect of the 24th month discussed by me as hypothesis for the past few weeeks has actually set in. For those who are acedemically inclined, the fall last time was 937 and this time till yesterday it was 232. Do I need to say more?
2. As gap down open is a foregone conclusion, we may expect some meaningful support around 5165.
3. Real problem starts below 5165 as we enter a new trading range after 24 weeks. Considering the Friday effect we should be content with low of about 5165 today.
4. As I have been mentioning in my post - please avoid bottom fishing unless you know the bottom. I don't know yet and cerrtainly not below 5165. It could be 4900 - 4400 or what about the gaps left on the weekly chart when we saw gap up opening affter the last election results.
5. Two things are certain to happen today. More readers will start looking at simple Gann Ideas more seriously and those who had the courage and conviction of buying 5000 Put last week will feeling happy. Please keep booking profit partially and keep some for next week. After all profit is the sole purpose of this exercise.
May GOD bless us all!
Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 04.08.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE :
On the back of weakness in World markets, Nifty Future opened with a downside gap and went down to make the day's low of 5387. In the second session, it made an attempt to go up to make a high of 5438 and barely managed to fill the gap left in the opening session. After spending the enitre day in and around 5400 level, it finally closed the day at 5424. The day's candle, with relatively small range (51 points) made a lower top / lower bottom. Interestingly, on the past two days we have a long lower shadow - suggesting strrength, but the next day Nifty Future has opened weak and continued its downward move. Well, if US/Europe markets are any indication at the time of wrtiing this post, we can expect the trend to continue tomorrow.
Tomorrow, one can consider going short below 5420 with stop loss of 5450/5470 depending on individaul risk profile. On the downside, 5300 will provide support. Existing short positions may be continued with stop loss of 5470.
In these uncertain times, long positions are best avoided till the market shows some sign of stability.
Put Call Ratio of Index Options remained almost unchanged at 0.93 as against 0.91 yesterday.
Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.
With Best Wishes,
Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 03.08.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE :
As the World markets did not respond to the Debt deal favourably, Nifty Future (in a surprise move) opened near yesterday's low and after taking support near 5470 for a while, went down to make the day's low at 5433. On the attached 30 min chart, I have shown todays' support level with the help of Andrew's Pitchfork. It closed today at 5466 - just below 5470 level.
For tomorrow, the downward bias will continue as long as Nifty Future remains below 5470 (swing mid point). We are now near to the multiple support level near 5400 and fall will accelerate below this level to test the next support at 5300. As such it is advisable not to remain long, once Nifty Future trades below 5400 as it may be difficult to take a call as to how far can it go.
I guess, the only bullish factor left for the market currently is that all have suddenly become bearish on the market. What happens to the US Debt problem even after passing of the deal by Senate will get clear only in the next few days and hence all the markets will be held to ransom till the air is clear about the fate of the US AAA rating.
Put Call Ratio of Index Options decreased to 0.91 as against 1.01 yesterday.
Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.
With Best Wishes,
Ketan Asher,

TURNING POINTS FOR 02.08.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE :

Due to the announcement of Debt Ceiling problem being resolved in USA, our markets opened firm - just like other markets in Asia. But the paradox is that US indices are down nearly 1 % at the time of writing this post.

In today's trading, Nifty Future opened firm and made high of 5557, but could not sustain at higher levels and came down to make the day's low of 5488 and bounced back to close the day at 5533. The EOD candle has a long lower shadow which is positive, but considering the way US markets have traded today, it may not mean much for us tomorrow. In any case 5555 is the level which needs to be broken decisively for us to see higher levels.

For tomorrow, one can keep the level of 5560 as Stop Loss level for short positions and at any sign of weakness one can keep this as a reference point to go short.

On the 30 min chart you will find a trend line (in Blue) which gets broken at 5500 and any fall below this level can take Nifty Future to 5450. It is not advisable to keep long positions (particularly in FNO) below 5450 as the trend line support is getting broken at this level in Weekly chart. The fall can accelerate below this level.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options remained almost unchanged at 1.01 as against 1.00 on the previous trading day.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.