TURNING POINTS FOR 01.07.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE :

At the outset, my apologies for not being able to prepare the charts and give complete post last evening. While the computer problem still persists, I have made alternate arrangements to ensure that I do not miss out my posts. As regards uploading TP Grid, will need one more day to set it up.

In today's trading, Nifty Future opened with a gap but could not sustain at higher levels and came down to the day's low of 5603 and filled the gap left in the opening session. It showed some sparks only in the last hour to make the day's high of 5654 and closed at 5644 - near the high of the day.

As I had been mentioning over the past few days, I would give the credit for the last weeks' rise to the FNO settlement - duly helped by short covering. The real test for the sustainability of the rise will come from tomorrow with the beginning of the new calendar month as well as new FNO series. On the 30 min chart I have shown an ellipse which shows sharp rise in a tight range. I have also shown a trend line which indicates resistance near 5665 levels.

For tomorrow, I would not advise fresh long position. As such, if Nifty Future is not able to cross 5680 level in the early session, one can consider going short with stop loss of 5700. Alternatively, one can consider going short below 5600 with stop loss of 5650. On the down side it will find support at 5535 and 5500.

While I will put up the Monthly/Weekly chart over the weekend as usual, I must add here that on monthly chart 5750 and on weekly chart 5800 levels are required to be crossed to consider that we have bottomed out and are ready for the next up move. Till this happens, I would consider it safer to be cautious at higher levels.

Pleas do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 30.06.2011

Hi,
In view of problem with my Computer, unable to prepare the charts and post the same.
As regards, tomorrow's trading the bias remains postive (at least for tomorrow) as the close today is near the high of the day. On the higher side 5625 and 5675 will act as reistance levels.
In view of the FNO settlement, markets can remain volatile and hence it is advisable not to trade without STOP LOSS.
With Best Wishes,
Ketan Asher.
PS: Will do my best to post TP Grid just before the markets open.

TURNING POINTS FOR 29.06.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE :

In today's trading, Nifty Future opened firm, but failed to cross yesterday's high. Thereafter, it went down to make the day's low of 5491 and bounced back once again and made one more failed attempt to cross yesterday's high. Nonetheless, it closed firm at 5549. The EOD candle indicates further bullishness as it has long lower shadow. Please refer to the 30 min chart to understand why Nifty Future faced strong resistance for yesterday & today (and if possible read the write-up "IMPORTANCE OF 50%....)

For tomorrow, long position may be considered once Nifty Future trades above 5559. I had mentioned in today's post to buy 5600 CE available today between Rs. 10-15. I am sure once NIfty Future crosses 5600, you will have nothing to regret.

Once 5600 is crossed we have resistance at 5645 - 5675 -5700 & 5765. I am sure we have seen on the last two days, what Nifty Future can do, once it is bullish and when lot of shorts have been trapped. After all we have FNO settlement scheduled for Thursday and just 2 trading sessions to go. Please do not remain short above 5600.

Please do not go short unless Nifty Future trades below 5500 (which looks unlikely). As regards, going short on the higher side - please avoid at least till we are done with the FNO settlement.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 28.06.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE :

In yesterday's trading, Nifty Future opened weak and made the day's low of 5444 and bounced back to make the day's high of 5559 and closed at 5534. On the EOD chart you will observe that we have closed just on the trend line (in magenta) with a small upper shadow.

For today, fresh buying can be considered above 5559, as it will then head for the next resistance at 5600 (previous top twice). Thereafter, it will gain further strength to move up to 5675 and 5765. It is not advisable to remain short above 5600. With FNO expiry scheduled for Thursday, please be ready to expect the unexpected on the up side.

Fresh short position may be considered only below 5500 with stop loss of 5535. Avoid going short at higher levels as crossing of 5600 will get further strength.

In the event, Nifty Future shows strength in the opening session (most likely it will, as US markets have closed up) consider buying 5600 call as the risk involved will be only the premium paid, where as the gain could be much more if Nifty Future is able to scale up as indicated above.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 27.06.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE:

After a firm opening on Friday, Nifty Future broke 5330 level and went to make the days high of 5491 and closed firm at 5484 - all thanks to short covering, ahead of FNO settlement on the coming Thursday.

For tomorrow, we may open weak in light of the hike in Diesel prices after the close of markets on Friday. Nifty Future can go down to test the low of 5420 and bounce back once again. One can consider going long at this level with a stop loss of 5390. On the higher side it will find resistance at 5485 and major resistance at 5555. Break of 5555 may take Nifty Future to retest the previous high of 5600 - though looking at the negative effect of the diesel price hike and the likely fall in DOW, it looks a bit difficult.

Considering the strength shown on Friday, I would not advise going short - at least on Monday.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options decreased marginally to 0.93 as against 0.96 on the previous trading day.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR WEEKENDED 24.06.2011

NIFTY FUTURE WEEKLY

The week that went by, gave us a new low of 5182 - almost a double bottom from the previous low of 5175. Last Friday's rise to the high of 5491 gave us 309 point range for the week. It closed at 5484 - near the high for the week. Though Friday' s mad rush to cut shorts gave us a good range, it has still maintained lower bottom / lower top for the week, but with a long lower shadow. Interestingly, the close is above the trend line at 5350 which was broken during the week and led to a swift fall.

After the market hours on Friday, the Govt. has announced a hike in diesel price and that could influence the opening session - although this hike was much anticipated. Secondly, looking at the way DOW closed last Friday, weakness in US markets is also likely to accentuate in the days to come. In light of these two negatives, can we sustain this rise beyond the FNO settlement?

Considering the negative effects of the diesel price hike which will start affecting the Inflation figure in a week or so, I do not think much should be read in this rise, except the technical factors and the FNO positions of the market players.

At this stage I would like to reiterate that the 46 weeks trading zone marked on the attached chart is going to provide good support and will need some extraodinary event to break the same.

Have a nice weekend!

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 24.06.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE :

In today's trading, Nifty Future maintained an upward bias but could not close above 5330. After a hesitant opening and making the day's low of 5263, Nifty Future went up to make the day's high of 5337 but could not sustain at higher levels. It closed the day at 5316. Interestingly, on the 30 min chart Nifty Future continues to trade within the big bar made on 20th June.

For tomorrow, I would repeat the same thing as today - go long above 5330 and go short below 5250.

Considering the weakness in US/World markets, we too may have a weak opening. However weakness will accentuate only below 5250. On the down side, Nifty Future will test previous low of 5182. Panic will set in only if Nifty Future breaks below 5165 and this seems unlikely for tomorrow as we have FNO settlement scheduled for next week. As such, any close above 5250 will leave long lower shadow on the weekly candle and will be quite positive for the next week,

Put Call Ratio of Index Options increased to 0.96 as against 0.80 yesterday.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS and it will be a safer option to trade in options = considering the increased volatility ahead of FNO Settlement.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 23.06.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE :

One more flat day of trading, when Nifty Future traded inside 44 points. The day's high, low and close were 5312, 5468 and 5283 repectively. On the 30 min chart you will observe that we are still trading within the big 30 min candle made on 20th June.

Today's lackluster trading was influenced by the Met dept's announcement of below normal Monsoon this year and by the time we start trading tomorrow, we would know the outcome of the Fed's meeting about the future of QE2.

In light of this, it is better to let Nifty Future to move above 5330 to go long and let it move below 5250 to go short. If you are following the TP Grid median points - so much the better.

On the higher side, it will find resistance at 5360 and will get stronger if it is able to cross the trend line at 5380 and go up to 5420.

On the lower side, it can go to test the previous low of 5182.

I must add here that looking at the lower shadow on the last 3 day's candle my bias remains positive.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options remained almost unchanged at 0.80 as against 0.82 on the previous trading day.

Either side of the levels referred above, the move could be sharp - hence please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 22.06.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN . NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE :

After a firm opening and initial hesitation, Nifty Future went up to make the days high @ 5327, but could not sustain at the higher levels and fell down suddenly but did not break the low of 5257 made in the morning session. On the intra day chart you will find the markings of 50% level of the swing which provided resistance for the day.

Considering the bearishness prevalent in the market, Nifty Future is not getting the buying support despite considerable improvement in the US/World markets. Needless to say, that I remain optimistic about the bounce and hence would not advise going short at lower levels.

For tomorrow, one can consider going long above 5300 with stop loss of 5250. On the higher side, it will find resistance at 5325 - 5355 - 5380. Nifty Future will gain momentum only above 5380.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options decreased to 0.82 as against 0.89 on the previous trading day.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 21.062011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE :

Finally, Nifty Future gave way when it went below 5350. Though we blame it on the review of the Tax Treaty with Mauritius, I would just say that for an otherwise weak market, it provided a good reason to precipitate into a big fall. Looking at the bounce from the previous low, I hope we are done for the fall - at least till the FNO settlement date. Tomorrow is also a important Gann turn date and hence I consider it as another good reason to believe that the bounce from this level is imminent.

In view of my upward bias for a bounce, I would suggest buying 5400 Call option which is trading at about 24. If you share my view that Nifty Future has to bounce from this level, you can also consider buying stock future and hedge it with an out of money put option to protect yourself. The battered stocks like Rliance, Tata Motors, IDFC are just a few i find worth considering. I would hasten to add, with today's fall the market has only got weaker, hence it is not advisable to buy a naked future. If at all the bounce materialises as I expect, 5400 becomes a strong resistance level.

I would not advise going short at lower levels.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options increased to 0.89 as against 0.80 on the previous day.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 20.06.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE :

In Friday's trading, Nifty Future took support at 5361 and bounced back to close the day/week at 5380.

As stated in the Weekly post, I expect Nifty Future to bounce from this level. Hence I would advise long position above 5400 with stop loss of 5375. On the higher side, it will find resistance at 5420 -5450- 5470 and 5500. While the up move may not be that smooth and will gather momentum only above 5500. It it manages to cross 5500, it will once again face major hurdle at 5600.

Considering my expectation for a bounce, I would not advise fresh short positions.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options decreased to 0.80 as against 0.89 on the previous trading day.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR WEEKENDED 17.06.2011

NIFTY FUTURE WEEKLY

Finally the weekended with the low of 5361 - which was being mentioned in my post for some time now. The range for the week was 174 points (High 5535 & Low 5361). The weekly low has been on the trend line shown in the Weekly & Monthly chart. While Reliance continues to remain weak, Infosys did show a bounce from the lower levels.

Nifty Future is now at a critical juncture. If it goes below 5350 we could see it testing 5300 levels. Crossing 5420 will be the first sign to indicate that my optimism for a bounce is not misplaced.

Considering the up move in US markets and our markets nearing FNO settlement date on 30th June, I am hopeful that 5350 will not be broken this time around. However, I would like to caution that increase in diesel price may belie my optimism for a bounce.

On the attached Monthly/Weekly chart you will observe that the space on the right hand side of the chart is narrowing and looking at the not so promising outlook on various fronts, one needs to be prepared for a downside break out in coming weeks.

Have a nice weekend!

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 17.06.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE :

After a weak opening, Nifty Future remained listless till the RBI policy was announced. In view of the policy turning out as expected, markets saw a sharp up move (high of 5459), only to fall again in the 2nd session to make the day's low of 5393 and closed at 5402. The fact that Nifty Future fell once again after the pull back post RBI announcement, speaks for the inherent weakness of the market - led by Reliance, Infosys, TCS etc.

From today's close, it does look that we should test 5365 level in the coming days. For tomorrow, fresh short position may be considered only below 5390 with a stop loss of 5435. On the down side, it will find support at 5365.

On the higher side, cross of 5435 should be considered as the first sign of market bottoming out. However, to gain strength, it will have to cross 5470. This should also be the stop loss for short position for Nifty Future.
Put Call Ratio of Index Options remained unchanged at 0.89.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 16.06.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE:

Finally, Nifty Future gave a big range and also the direction. After a weak opening, Nifty Future continued its downward bias throughout the day. By the end of the day, Nifty Future once again tested the previous low of 5438 and closed at 5451. Today's weak close, coupled with weakness in World markets, we should be ready to see weak opening and some more downside.

For tomorrow, one can consider going short with stop loss of 5475. Selling on gap down opening should be avoided. On the down side, it will find support at 5420 and triangle pattern target of 5365.

Support at 5365 hinges entirely on the market reaction to the RBI credit policy and also should be seen in the light of support at 5350 on the Weekly / Monthly chart. As a contrarian move, at this level, one can consider buying 5600 Call options, as expiry is 10 trading days away.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options remained almost unchanged at 0.89 as against 0.90 on the previous trading day.

Tomorrow once again we can expect a big range and a volatile trading day, hence please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 15.06.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE :

One more day with just 39 points range (High 5535 & Low 5496) and closed the day at 5516. With front line stocks like Reliance, Tata Motors, SBI etc. getting weak, even up move in US/European markets may not be of much help.

On the 30 min chart you will observe how Nifty Future remained below the trend line (in Blue) for better part of the day. The only positive that the market offered today was the fact that after a gap of few days Nifty Future formed a higher top / higher bottom.

Short position may be taken below 5470 with a stop loss of 5500. On the down side, it will find support at 5420 and 5365.

On the higher side, 5555 level continues to offer strong resistance. If it is crossed, we may see 5600.

In my view, it is better to be on the side lines till Nifty Future shows a clear direction when it comes out of the triangle formation (in magentagetting formed on the EOD chart. May be the RBI Credit policy on Thursday, may provide the necessary direction to the market.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options remained almost unchanged at 0.90 as against 0.95 on the previous trading day.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 14.06.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE :

Contrary to expectations, Nifty Future did not open with a gap but had a steady opening. However, it remained weak in the early hours and even made a new low at 5438 - which was 0.618 correction of the swing shown on the 30 min chart. Thereafter, Nifty Future maintained steady up move, to make the day's high at 5511 and remined sideways to close the day at 5499. It may be interesting to see on the 30 min chart, how perfectly the day's bottom has been made at the 0.618 retracement level and again on its way up, it has faced resistance at the trend line drawn to depict the triangle.

For tomorrow, we are once again in multiple resistance zone till 5555 and with Reliance continuing to be weak it is better to avoid long positions till Nifty Future retests the lower levels particulalrly 5365.

Short positions may be taken below 5470 with stop loss of 5500. On the down side, it will find support at 5420 and 5365.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options increased to 0.95 as against 0.84 on the previous trading day.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 13.06.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE :

In Friday's trading, Nifty Future decisively broke the 5500 level to make the day's low at 5450 and bounced back marginally to close the week at 5485. In doing so, on the 30 min chart it has broken out of the triangle (in Blue) on the lower side and giving a pattern target of 5365.

Considering the weakness in Global markets after our markets closed for the week, this level does look practical to achieve. This seen with the support at 5350 and expectation of a bounce back (as has happened on number of occasions in the past), it is advisable to buy Call options for Nifty Future of 5500/5600 strike price as and when this level is reached. In such times futures position is best avoided.

For tomorrow, assuming the market doesn't open with a down side gap, one can consider going short below 5465 with a stop loss of 5500. On the down side, it will find support at 5420 and 5365.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options decreased to 0.84 as against 0.93 on the previous trading day.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR WEEKENDED 10.06.2011

NIFTY FUTURE WEEKLY

One of the small range weeks ended as a doji - indicating indecisiveness. During the week, Nifty Future made a range of 128 points (high of 5578 & low of 5450) and closed the week at 5484. The last day of the week saw a new low for the week and a weak close too. This coupled with weakness in World markets after the close of our markets leaves little doubt of further weakness in the beginning of the next week.

At this juncture it is important to recollect that we remain inside a small range (as shown on the Monthly/Weekly chart and we are now closer to the lower range and thus heightening the anxiety of cracking the 5300 level this time around. In this context, I would like to remind the readers that this month FNO series ends on the last day of the month i.e. 30th. Thus it leaves enough time for it to make another comeback to the upper range of the trading range. Hence, it would be prudent not to preempt the fall below 5300 and get too bearish on the lower side.

I will cover the pattern target of 5366 (on the 30 min chart) in my regular post for Monday and hence am not repeating the same here.

So till then don't panic and get ready for a contrarian Buy in 5600/5700 call at about Rs. 15/- which you can hold till the end of this settlement. Considering the uncertanities of the markets, adventure of naked future position is not advisable.

Have a nice weekend!

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 10.06.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE :

One more narrow range day which ended as a doji. The day's High, Low & Close were 5544, 5493 & 5519 respectively. Incidentally, during this week till date, we have a range of just 103 points (High 5578 & Low 5475) as against the norm of 150 to 175 points.

On the EOD chart I have drawn a triangle (in Magenta) which indicates the exact point of today's bottom.

Considering that the Nifty Future did not break the previous bottom of 5475 and bounced back from the trend line support as mentioned above, we can expect the market to go up. For tomorrow, long position may be considered above 5555 with stop loss of 5520. While this level may look little far off compared to today's close, it manages to take Nifty Future above the Weekly/Monthly mid points too and also takes care 5555 - the key level referred by me quite often. On the higher side, 5588 and 5600. It is not advisable to remain short if Nifty Future manages to go above 5600.

While the current US market movement does indicate up move tomorrow, we must not forget that below 5475, it may go down a little too fast.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options remained almost unchanged at 0.93 as against 0.92 yesterday.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS, as tomorrow being the last day of the week and the breakout on the EOD chart, it could be an eventful day.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 09.06.2011

Regret my inability to post for the day, as not well.
However, just managed to upload TP GRID.
Regards,
Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 08.06.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE :

After a firm opening and making the day's low of 5509, Nifty Future went up to 5660 and remained sideways for some time. In the second session it continued the up move to make the day's high of 5578 and closed at 5563 - marginally lower than the day's high. You will observe on the 30 min chart that Nifty Future has found resistance at the Andrew's Pitchfork median line. Secondly, it is in a wedge formation (shown in yellow shade).

Considering today's resistance area and the pattern referred above suggest that for tomorrow, further up move is possible only above 5580 and in the event Nifty Future breaks out of the Wedge on the down side, we may see a sharp fall. On the EOD chart, I have marked a Head & Shoulder pattern with a break out at 5600.

In view of the resistance referred above, I would not advise fresh long position unless Nifty Future is able to break above 5580 (Stop loss 5555). On the higher side, we have resistance at 5600 and strong resistance at 5560-5675 level.

In the event, Nifty Future breaks the Wedge pattern on the down side, one can consider going short below 5540 with a stop loss of 5560. It will find support at 5525 - 5500. Existing long positions may be trailed with a stop loss of 5555.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options increased to 0.98 as against 0.91 on the previous trading day.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 07.06.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE :

In today's trading, Nifty Future opened weak and went down to the low of 5475 and as expected, bounced back to the high of 5547 and closed firm at 5534. As can be seen on the 30 min chart, the bounce has been from the key support area but has remained below another important level of 5555.

For the Nifty Future to gain momentum, it has to now cross once again above 5555 and thereafter above the Andrew's Pitchfork @ 5575, as shown on the 30 min chart. Considering the persisting weakness in the World markets, this seems to be a bit difficult. In view of the multiple resistance levels, I would suggest that fresh long positions around the resistance zone is best avoided. Short positions may be considered below 5500 with a stop loss of 5540. On the down side, it will find support at 5465 - 5420 and good support at 5385.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options decreased to 0.91 as against 1.09 on the previous trading day.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 06.06.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE:

In Friday's trading, Nifty Future once again faced tough resistance at 5600 (exact high of 5609) and in second session came down sharply to make the day's low of 5509 and closed marginally higher at 5524. The fall was largely accounted by Reliance and Bank stocks. Another unique point about Friday's fall was that many stocks viz. LT, M&M, Maruti, Infosys etc remained firm. Similarly, in Bank Nifty too there were scrips like ICICI Bank, Kotak Bank, HDFC Bank that remained firm. Thus weakness was restricted to a few items only.

Considering the weakness in US markets, we can expect a weak opening on Monday. However, as shown on the 30 min chart, on Friday Nifty Future has taken support on the trend line (in Brown). Immediately below we have support of another trend line (in Blue) at about 5500 level. Moreover, immediately below it we have major support at 5470. As mentioned in the weekly post, the market will get very weak only if previous bottom of 5441 is broken. Hence, it would be a good opportunity to go long around 5470 with a stop loss of 5440.

In view of the above, I would not advise short position and instead wait for Nifty Future to come down to the level of about 5470 to go long with a strict stop loss of 5440.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options increased to 1.09 as against 1.39 on the previous trading day.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR WEEKENDED 03.06.2011

NIFTY FUTURE WEEEKLY

Last week, Nifty Future traded in 168 points range (High 5609 & Low 5441). Though Friday it closed on the lower range for the day, the positives for the week were:

1. It closed in the Green over the week's opening.

2. It made higher top / Higher bottom for the week.

Considering the weakness in World markets and its effect on our markets on Friday, we may see a lower opening on Monday. We may see a quick rebound if previous weeks' low of 5441 is not broken.

As can be seen on the Weekly / monthly chart, we are approaching a narrow phase with major downside below 5350 and major up side above 5850. Please note that this can last for a while (and try our patience) but also provide enough range for Nifty Future to trade. Till such time we break out of this range we must continue trading the market - on both sides, as best as we can. I am sure the TP Grid points will definitely help you to be on the right side of the market.

Have a nice weekend!

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 03.06.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE :

In sympathy with the fall in World markets, Nifty Future opened weak and made low of 5531 but managed to remain firm for the remainder of the day. During the day, Nifty Future made high of 5577, but closed lower at 5558. Today's close brings Nifty Future once again below the median line shown on the EOD chart.

For tomorrow, one can consider going short below 5540 with a stop loss of 5570. On the down side, it will find support at 5520 - 5500 and good support at 5475 from where a bounce is likely, more so considering that tomorrow is the last day for the weekly candle.

Long positions are best avoided as World markets continue (more particularly Europe) to remain weak and we can not avoid the contagious effect for long, as there are no special positive triggers.
In the unlikely event of Nifty Future showing strength, on crossing 5600 it can go up to the next resistance level of 5645 and hence short positions should be held with suitable stop loss. As long as Nifty Future remains above 5555, this possibility should not be ignored.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options increased to 1.39 as against 1.21 on the previous trading day.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 02.06.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

PLEASE READ THE PREVIOUS POST TITLED : SPECIAL UODATE - NIFTY FUTURE MONTHLY
NIFTY FUTURE :

In today's trading, Nifty Future continued its up move for the 5th day in a row and closed (5590) near the high (5594) of the day. While in the 1st hour, Nifty Future did show some hesitation in going up, but held up after making the day's low at 5546. While during the day volatility was very low, due to short covering Nifty Future surged to close the day near the high.

Considering the weakness in the World markets (down by over 1 %) at the time of writing this post, there is a good possibility that we have a weak opening. One can consider going short below 5570, with stop loss of 5605. On the down side we have support at 5555 - 5515 and 5480. At this level, one can consider going long - for a bounce, with a stop loss of of 5450.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options increased to 1.21 as against 1,1o yesterday.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

SPECIAL UPDATE - NIFTY FUTURE MONTHLY CHART

NIFTY FUTURE MONTHLY

We ended the month of May 2011 with one more bounce from the trend line support at 5329. Incidentally, this trend line has provided support on many previous occasions in the past few months as shown on the attached chart.

The purpose of this update is to highlight that even in 2008 when market peaked out we had a trend (see trend line in Red) that lasted for 23 months during which period it provided support for about 7 times and when the trend line was broken Nifty Future had a sharp fall. This time around, we have seen a similar situation when during the past 21 months of the current trend (though not so sharp like last time around) the trend line has provided support for around 6 times.

For the current month, we have upper break out point at 5870 and lower break out point at 5330. Today's close at 5594 is almost at the mid point of this range. Considering the negatives, the odds are high that we have a break out on the lower side, which could take the Nifty Future to about 5000. The key difference between the two scenarios is the angle of ascent - which was much more sharp on earlier occasion (resulting in sharp fall) than the current situation. Considering the not so sharp angle of the trend line this time around, lets hope the fall is not so sharp. Nonetheless, one needs to be careful in carrying the long positions - if and when the break out does happen.

Keep Learning,

Ketan Asher.