TURNING POINTS FOR 01.06.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE :

After a firm opening and initial hesitation to continue the up move, Nifty Future managed to gather steam to cross 5500 level and thereafter maintained a steady up move to make the day's high of 5563 (low of 5480) and closed firm at the key resistance level of 5555. On the EOD chart you will observe that the close is right at the median of an Andrew's Pitchfork shown on the chart and that coupled with the key resistance of 5555 can end up to a tough level to cross. Moreover, today's high is also near the 0.382 retracement of the last swing.

Though we have ended the month little better at the mid point of the month and thus leaving lower shadow on the monthly candle chart, this should also be seen in the context of lower top / lower bottom for the month - which in itself indicates bearishness.

All this together coupled with continuous 4 day rise may lead to a correction and hence long positions are best avoided. Short positions may be considered below 5540 with a stop loss of 5565. On the lower side, it will find support at 5500 - 5475 and 5440.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options remained almost unchanged at 1.10 as against 1.08 on the previous trading day.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS and don't forget to trail the long positions.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 31.05.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE:

As expected, Nifty Future faced strong resistance despite having a firm opening in today's trading. During the day, it made a high of 5497 and low of 5441 and finally closed the day at 5467. You will find on the 30 min chart that today's price action has remained below the Andrew's Pitchfork despite having a firm opening just above it.

Considering that Nifty Future had some buying support at today's lower levels, the EOD candle does leave some hope that there could be some upside left. However for this to materialise, Nifty Future has to move above 5500. For tomorrow, I would not advise long position as even if Nifty Future manages to cross 5500, it has to face resistance at 5550 - 5570 levels. In the event, Nifty Future fails to go above the 5500 levels in the morning session, we may see stronger down move that will accelerate below 5440. Short position may be considered below 5440 with stop loss of 5475. On the down side, it will find support at 5400-5420. Once below 5400, it may quickly go down to test the previous low of 5330. Tomorrow is the last trading day for the month and any close below 5400 will indicate bearish stance for the next month.
Put Call Ratio of Index Options remained almost unchanged at 1.08 as against 1.09 on the previous trading day.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 30.05.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE :

In Friday's trading, Nifty Future continued its upward bias shown on the last day (or better to say last one hour) of FNO settlement. Nifty Future opened firm and maintained upward bias through out the day, except in last hour when it came down marginally due to profit booking and weekend consideration. During the day, Nifty Future made a high of 5482 and low of 5415 and closed the day at 5466. On the 30 min chart you will find the Andrew's Pitchfork marked and we are close to facing the resistance at 5485. Similarly, on the EOD chart, you will observer that we have a trend line resistance at 5500.

For market to sustain further momentum, it has to cross the above referred hurdles and hence it is best to avoid long position for tomorrow. Once the above resistance levels are crossed, we have once again the level of 5555 to contend with.

One can consider going short below 5450 with stop loss of 5485. On the down side, it will find support at 5420 and 5380.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options increased to 1.05 as against 0.97 on the previous trading day.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR WEEKENDED 27.05.2011

NIFTY FUTURE WEEKLY
Last week, Nifty Future took support on the trend line (in Red) for the 5th time and bounced. During the week it made a range of 153 points (High 5482 & Low 5329) and closed firm at 5466.

Since it has continued lower top / lower bottom formation, I would not give much credence to the lower shadow on the weekly candle.

As shown on the chart the bounce (from the trend line) is more due to the strong support between 4500 and 5400 levels and market wanting a very strong reason to pierce this region. Though the reasons are developing (Fuel price hike, FII selling etc.) may be they are not strong enough to breach the trend line as yet but it could happen any time as the breakout point is increasing. For the next week the corresponding critical level will be around 5350.

Though the bounce yesterday was sharp, the technical indicators on the weekly chart are not yet in buy mode, hence this bounce too may not last - just like the previous three weeks.

Caution is advised at higher levels.

Have a nice weekend!

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 27.05.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTUR EOD

NIFTY FUTURE :

And finally, FNO settlement got over amidst lot of volatility and with Nifty Future closing with upward bias. The day's trading started on a firm note but thereafter saw sudden down move but did not brake the day's low of 5354 formed in the morning session. In the last hour, it suddenly shot up to make the day's high of 5414 and closed the day firm at 5402. The up move was led by Reliance and Nifty Future made a higher top and higher bottom on the EOD chart - suggesting strength.

On the EOD chart, you will observe that we have closed today just at the trend line (in Blue) indicating up move if the Trend Line is crossed in tomorrow's session or else we continue the down move. Considering the strong close, I will consider the bias to be positive as long as Nifty Future remains above 5400. Another important indication of strength will be the ability of Nifty Future to cross the 5420 level.

In view of the above, I would advise long position above 5420 with stop loss of 5400 (or better still 5380). On the higher side, it will find resistance at 5440 and 5475.

Fresh short position may be taken below 5380 with stop loss of 5420. On the down side, it will find support at 5350. Below 5350, Nifty Future will, in all likely hood break 5300 and weakness will accelerate. Although, considering the Friday effect, I would consider the probability of breaking 5300 to be very low.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options increased to 0.97 as against 0.85 yesterday.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 26.05.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE :

In today's trading Nifty Future continued to drift downwards to make the day's low of 5329 (High of 5374). Interestingly, it has taken support on the trend line (in Green) on the EOD chart . Nifty Future closed today at 5349 - marginally above the days' low and thus keeping my hopes alive that it will close better tomorrow being FNO settlement day. On the 30 min chart you will observe that it is ready to cut the trend line (in Blue) on the up side.

For tomorrow, I would suggest going long above 5360 with stop loss of 5325. On the higher side, it will face resistance at 5385 - 5420 and if it manages to cross this level it could go to 5475. In view of my positive bias for a bounce from this trend line support, I would not advise going short at lower levels.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options increased marginally to 0.85 as against 0.81 yesterday.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 25.05.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE:

After a firm opening, Nifty Future made an attempt to go up and managed to make the day's high at 5418, but gave up all the gains in the second session to breach yesterday's low and made a new low of 5360. Thereafter, it bounced back to close the day at 5388. Please refer to the attached 30 min chart for getting better appreciation of today's resistance level.

I would consider today's low as a double bottom at the support level of 5360 and expect Nifty Future to muster enough strength tomorrow to clear the resistance of 5420.

For tomorrow, one can consider going long above 5400 with a stop loss of 5350. On the higher side, it will find resistance at 5420 - 5440 and 5500. All this considering the ensuing FNO settlement scheduled for Thursday. It is advisable not to go short at lower levels till the FNO settlement is over.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options decreased to 0.81 as against 0.92 yesterday.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS as markets may remain choppy, in view of the FNO settlement.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 24.05.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE :

In today's trading, Nifty Future opened weak and all the enthusiasm apparent on last Friday was absent. Nifty Future opened low at 5439 and made a high of 5440 and there after maintained downward bias throughout the day, and made the day's low of 5365, In view of the support of the previous low of 5350, it did make an attempt to bounce, but could not muster enough strength, in view of weakness in Global markets. It finally closed the day at 5383.

Considering the weakness in Global markets, in all probability, we will see a weak opening and Nifty Future may easily slip down to the strong support area of 5300. In view of the impending FNO settlement just few days away, there is good likely hood of Nifty Future bouncing - may be for one last time before the FNO settlement. This is just a wishful thinking and hence one needs to wait before taking long positions as the sentiment is very weak and bounce may take the Nifty Future to 5420.

For those following TP Grid, i would like to draw their attention in change of the Mid Point for 52 Weeks after a long time. The mid point has now increased to 5641 (from 5567) and will provide strong resistance.

For tomorrow, I would not advise going short particularly if there is a gap down open. The brave hearts can consider going long at about 5300 (with strict stop loss of 50 points) that too if market looks to be stabilising at that level. At higher levels, it will find resistance at 5400 - 5420. It is not advisable to remain short above 5420.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options increased marginally to 0.92 as against 0.87 on the previous trading day.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher,

TURNING POINTS FOR 23.05.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE:

In Friday's trading, Nifty Future did manage to go up to make the day's high of 5522 (and low 5429) but gave up majority of the gains by end of the day to close at 5485. On the 30 min chart you will observe that the trend line in Red has provided strong resistance. Similarly on the EOD chart you will observe that Nifty Future has closed below the breakout level of the Inverted Flag (in Blue) and has also left long upper shadow on the EOD candle - both suggesting weakness.

At the cost of being repetitive, I would not like to miss the opportunity of pointing out the effectiveness of the TP Grid. On Friday, weekly mid point for Bank Nifty was given as 10745 where as the day's high was 10744.40. Incidentally, it closed the day much lower at 10666. So much for the effectiveness of a simple idea. If this idea helps some more people to make money, I will be happy about it and hence the mention - time and again.

For tomorrow, it would be better to go short below 5465 with stop loss of 5500. On the down side, it will find support at 5420, 5393 and 5350 (previous bottom).

Long positions are best avoided at the moment as even above Friday's high of 5522, we have multiple resistance area viz. 5555 and 5567.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options increased to 0.87 as against 0.76 on the previous trading day.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS as we are now entering FNO settlement week and hence volatility will be much higher.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR WEEKENDED 20.05.2011

NIFTY FUTURE WEEKLY

We had one more week of narrow range - 139 points with high of 5537 and low of 5398. It closed at 5485 leaving a small lower shadow on the weekly candle. Though this will induce some hope to the bulls, but the same when seen in light of lower top / lower bottom leaves one sceptical about the strength of the market. Yesterday's expected up move found strong resistance at 5525 level that led to close at lower levels of 5485.

On the attached chart you will find that I have drawn a rectangle marking the most traded area for 46 weeks. We saw the market bounce from this level once earlier which took the market up to 6000 and now we are once again at the threshold of breaking this region when we start trading below 5300 levels. The reasons that could lead to the breaking of this strong support area this time are much more convincing (viz. Higher petrol prices, Higher Interest Rate etc.) than they were earlier when we saw a strong bounce after making a low of 5175. With US markets too getting ready to see life without QE2 sometime in June, weakness in World markets may provide sufficient trigger for Nifty Future to breach this support area.

I would like to add that with SBI getting weak, Bank Nifty too has turned weak and has taken shine out of the once most favoured sector. Bank Nifty Future now below 10500 will go to the previous bottom of 10000 and thereafter to 9600 levels.

In view of he foregoing, its time to be cautious at higher levels, as the story of Right Shoulder formation carried in my weekly post since the time top was made around last Diwali, may turnout to be a reality.

Have a nice weekend!

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 20.05.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE :

And one more narrow range / boring day. Though Bank Nifty Future did go below yesterday's low, Nifty Future did not do so and it does indicate some strength. L&T, Reliance and ONGC did help index from going down. During the day, Nifty Future made a high of 5452, low of 5404 and closed at 5425 - just at the same level of yesterday.

Considering today's movement, it does indicate that we should see a positive move tomorrow - after all its Friday (last day of the week) and if the previous 3 weeks are any indication, we should see an up move tomorrow. It will be better to go long above 5440 with a stop loss of 5400. On the higher side, it will find resistance at 5475-5480 level. Once this level is broken, we can expect a fast up move to the next resistance level of 5535 and 5565.

Short positions should be avoided at lower levels.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options decreased to 0.76 as against 0.88 yesterday.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 19.05.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE :

In today's trading Nifty Future continued its bearishness led by SBI, Reliance and Infosys. During the day Nifty Future made the day's high of 5464, low of 5398 and closed the day at 5424. Finally, Nifty Future almost met the target of 5393.

After the day's low, Nifty Future did make effort to go up and closed marginally above the day's low. For tomorrow long positions may be considered above 5440 with stop loss of 5420. On the higher side, it will face strong resistance at 5470-5480 levels, There is a good possibility of a pullback from this level before Nifty Future attempts further up move to the 5515 and 5540 level (Trend line in Red).

Short position must be avoided at lower levels as major downside is possible only when Nifty Future trades below 5300 levels.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options remained unchanged at 0.88 level.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 18.05.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE :

After a weak opening, Nifty Future could managed to go up to make the day's high of 5522 and thereafter went down to make the day's low of 5423 and closed marginally above the day at 5447. The weakness in Nifty Future was led by SBI (down 8%), ONGC (down 6%), Reliance (down 2%). As can be seen on the EOD chart, Nifty Future has broken the Inverted Flag and taken support at the trend line. As mentioned in the weakly post, while breakout of Inverted Flag does give a target of 5000, but that should be expected only when 5300 is broken.

Considering the weakness in Global markets, we will see a weak opening. Tomorrow is the 2nd Anniversary of the Gap up opening after the Election Results in 2009. Needless to mention that this time any suh surprise will have to be on the down side. Tomorrow, we may see upside up to 5480 and if this materialises, than should be utilised to go short with stop loss of 5535. On the down side, Nifty Future has support at 5420 and 5393.

Fresh long positions should be avoided till market shows signs of stabilising as fall below 5300 could be swift and deep (please see the weekly chart)
Put Call Ratio of Index Options remained almost unchanged at 0.88 as against 0.87 yesterday.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 17.05.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE :

In today's trading, Nifty Future opened with a down side gap and remained weak throughout the day. The day's high was at 5537 and low was at 5477. You will observe on the charts that the day's low took support on the trend line drawn on the charts. Hence, break of today's low will lead to further down side tomorrow. Considering that the day's close at 5489 is near the bottom for the day - the possibility of further down side remains open.

For tomorrow, short positions may be considered below 5460 with stop loss of 5510. On the down side, 5420 and 5393 will provide support.

It is better to wait for Nifty Future to shown some signs of bottoming out before considering long positions. However, Nifty Future trading above 5555 will once again start an up move more due to short covering rather than genuine buying.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options remained almost unchanged at 0.87 as against 0.89 on the previous trading day.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 16.05.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE:

In Friday's trading, after a weak opening, Nifty Future made a new weekly low of 5465 and thereafter made a sharp up move to make week's high of 5622. On the EOD chart, you will find that the day's candle has touched both the lines drawn for Inverted flag. The fact that the price action has remained within this range, it has not disturbed the Inverted Flag pattern. This combined with announcement of steep price hike for petrol (and to be followed soon for Diesel) does indicate that the Inverted flag pattern may see a breakout below Friday's low of 5465. The breakout results in a price target for Nifty Future at about 5000.

Considering the steep price hike, there is a possibility of Nifty Future opening weak. One can consider going short when Nifty Future remains below 5555 with STOP LOSS of 5580. On the down side, it will find support at 5465 - 5420 and 5393. As is being mentioned in my post regularly, the major downside is possible only below 5300 and hence at lower levels one needs to be cautious of remaining short.

In view of the negative announcement, it is not advisable creating fresh long positions till Nifty Future shows signs of stabilising.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options remained almost unchanged at 0.89 as against 0.88 on the previous day.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR WEEK ENDED 13.05.2011

NIFTY FUTURE WEEKLY

During the week, Nifty Future traded in 158 points range (High 5623 & Low 5465). The interesting part being that the weeks' high and low were recorded yesterday. While yesterday's sharp up move (as indicated in my post previous day) may have surprised many and that resulted in short cutting which took Nifty Future above 5580 to the next resistance of 5620. As I will be dealing with the Friday's price action in my regular post for Monday along with EOD chart, I am not repeating the same here.

Due to the sharp up move, there is a lower shadow on the weekly chart and the fact that Nifty Future has not broken the previous week's low, one may tend to hope that worst is over for the market. In my view, this small range week may even turn out to be a lull before the storm. For this purpose. on the down side 5300 should be closely watched. Once market moves below this level, break of previous low of 5175 seems imminent. We now have to factor high Interest Rate and higher Oil Price which may further accelerate inflationary pressure and also erode profitability.

In case of Dow once it starts trading below 12500, we may see a fresh down move starting.

Another interesting fact I would like to highlight is that next week (18th May) we will have 2nd Anniversary of the historic Gap up opening post the Election Results.

Just don't get carried away by the one day sharp up moves and protect your long positions carefully when Nifty Future trades below 5555. All in all, a time to be very cautious.

Have a nice weekend!

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 13.05.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE:

After a weak opening, Nifty Future did make an attempt to go up and managed to make the day's high at 5577.70. Interestingly, it remained just short of 0.20 points below yesterday's high of 5577.90. Well to me this was the first indication that "All was not well" for the day. Immediately thereafter, Nifty Future made a sharp down move and made the day's low of 5471. Yesterday I had mentioned that we were near to the upper range of what appeared to me as Inverted Flag pattern. Well - today I have to mention that we are near to the lower range of the inverted flag pattern.

Considering that we closed (5481) near the low of the day, we can expect a weak opening. As can be seen on the EOD chart, we have a trend line support at 5420. In case of a weak opening, one can considering going long with stop loss at 5420. Tomorrow being last trading day of the week, we could see a bounce. On the higher side 5540, 5555 and 5580 will provide resistance. Bias will change to positive only above 5580 - which looks difficult for tomorrow.

Considering that we are now at lower levels, we need to be cautious in case of short positions. As was mentioned in my last weeks' post, major down side is likely only when we go below 5300.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options remained unchanged at 0.88.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 12.05.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE :

After a firm opening, Nifty Future went down to the day's low of 5524 and thereafter remained listless/boring for the better part of the day except the last hour when it showed some strength when it moved out of the Pitchfork referred in yesterday's post. However, we need to note that it lacked the spark which is normally associated with such breakouts. Finally it closed the day within 54 point range near the high of the day at 5565. It must also be noted that we have been moving in 161 points range for 6 trading days and going no where. Though it may be little premature to mention that a bearish flag formation is taking place as marked on the EOD chart. While today we are nearer to the upper range of the flag, where as lower range for the downside breakout at 5455 is little far. Break above 5620 can cancel this bearish pattern.

Looking at the above referred pattern and considering the sluggishness shown by the market, I would advise long positions only above 5620 or are best avoided for the remainder of this week.

Short positions may be taken below 5535 with stop loss of 5565. On the downside, it will find support at 5420 and 5393.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options decreased marginally to 0.88 as against 0.92 yesterday.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 11.05.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE :

After a firm opening, Nifty Future went up to make the weeks' new high of 5605, but gave up the gains and went down to make the day's low of 5517. It ended the day at 5546. Highlight of the day's trading were - that it made a higher top and higher bottom but ended the day without showing much conviction for the bulls and also closed below the oft repeated level of 5555. Not to miss the opportunity of highlighting the importance of TP Grid, I would like to draw your attention to the fact that 5617 level (mid point for this month) acted as a resistance.

On the 30 min chart I have drawn an Andrew's Pitchfork which suggests that it will be better to go long only if Nifty Future crosses the Pitchfork Line at 5585 with stop loss of 5555. On the higher side, it will find resistance at 5620, 5675 and strong resistance at 5700.

Once again, I would continue to suggest that short positions should be taken only below 5500 with stop loss of 5555. On the down side, it will provide support at 5420 and 5393.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options increased to 0.92 as against 0.81 yesterday.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 10.05.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE :

In today's trading, Nifty Future opened firm and made a high of 5584 in the early trades but gave up all the gains to make the day's low of 5502. Thereafter it once again went up to the day's high but could not muster the strength to Peirce this level decisively and closed the day at 5559. The positive feature of the day's trading was that, once again Nifty Future made a higher bottom / higher top - suggesting strength. Secondly, Nifty Future did not go below 5500 level.

Today's close on the EOD chart does suggest (so do the US markets) strong opening tomorrow. Existing long positions should be trailed with a stop loss of 5540. Fresh long positions may also be taken with stop loss of 5540. Today's setup does leave hopes of Nifty Future making 5700 (once it is able to cross 5620) before continuing the downward trend. On the higher side, 5620 - 5675 and 5700 will provide resistance.

Once again, I will continue to advise going short only below 5500 with stop loss of 5555. On the down side it will find support at 5420 and 5393. It is not advisable to remain long below 5500.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options remained almost the same at 0.81 as against 0.80 on the previous trading day.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 09.05.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE :

In Friday's trading, Nifty Future made a turn around after sustained fall for over 8 days. The positive part for the day's trading was that it made a higher top and higher bottom on the EOD chart after many days.

For tomorrow, it will be better to go long above 5575 with stop loss of 5550. On the higher side, it will find resistance at 5620 - 5675 and major resistance at 5700.

Short position may be considered only below 5500 with stop loss of 5535. On the lower side, 5420 and 5393 will provide support. As mentioned in the weekly update, the critical level for extreme bearishness is 5300. At lower levels, bearishness will accelerate only when 5300 is broken.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options remained almost unchanged at 0.80 as against 0.79 on the previous trading day.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR WEEKENDED 06.05.2011

NIFTY FUTURE WEEKLY

We saw a second week that ended on a bearish note but remained above 5400 level. During the week we saw a high of 5790 and low of 5444 (range of 346 points). The week closed at 5555 - a key level being referred often in my posts. As expected, we saw a positive close on Friday, mainly because we saw a consistent fall for almost 8 days.

Another important point is that we are now outside the channel on weekly as well as monthly chart which does not augur well for the bulls. However, I would like to caution that extreme bearish is not yet justified, as we have once again made a higher bottom on the weekly chart - though higher top is still not in place to confirm sustained bullishness. Secondly, oscillators on the weekly chart are still not in the sell mode.

On the higher side we have strong resistance at 5700 level and of 200 DMA at 5764 level.

Moreover, it will be only above 5900 level (which was earlier 6000) when we will be out of danger and see strength returning to the market.

As shown on the Weekly chart, the trend line (in Red) has provided support on four occassions earlier. Only when it is broken once again, then we should get ready to see the levels below 5000.

Why spoil our this weekend by worrying about the lower levels which is still some time away?

Have a nice weekend!

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 06.05.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE :

In the early trades today, Nifty Future did make an attempt to go up and made the day's high at 5573 but thereafter remained sideways for a few hours and in the second session went down sharply to make the day's low of 5444 and closed at 5458 - near the low of the day. Incidentally, we have 8 straight down days and day's close is just a striking distance away from the level of 5393 given by the freak trade last week. Not to forget that gap left at 5504 is also filled today.

Considering that we have fallen for so long (8 days) and so much (nearly 8%), it is not advisable to go short at lower levels - at least for tomorrow. Moreover, tomorrow being the last trading day of the week, it is also important from weekly candle point of view and hence pull back is possible up to 5700 - before continuing the downside. As mentioned yesterday, extreme bearishness can be expected only when 5300 level is broken and may be that is some time away.

For tomorrow, one can consider going long when Nifty Future trades near 5400 levels with a stop loss of 5365. Safer thing to do would be to buy 5500 or 5600 calls. On the higher side, it will find resistance at 5510 - 5555 and major resistance at 5590.

I would not advise fresh short positions tomorrow.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options remained at 0.79 as against 0.83 on the previous trading day.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 05.05.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE :

In today's trading, Nifty Future opened weak and traded sideways in the first half of the day and made day's low at 5510 and then went up to make the day's high at 5593 and closed lower at 5538. The EOD candle is a doji - suggesting indecision and that too below the key support level of 5555. As mentioned yesterday, Nifty Future managed to fill the gap at 5553 but is yet to fill the gap at 5504 and many more down below the previous low of 5175.

Considering the weakness in Global markets, we can expect a lower opening. Below 5500, there is a good possibility that Nifty Future may go down up to 5393 - a bottom made with a freak trade on 26th April. At this level, it will also find trend line support as well as previous bottom. At this level, one can consider going long for bounce at least. As seen on the EOD chart, there would be major danger to the market below 5300.

Short position may be taken below 5500 with stop loss of 5540. On the down side 5420 and 5365 and 5393 will provide support.

Long position may be taken at lower level at 5393 indicated above or when Nifty Future trades above 5555 levels. On the higher side, it will find resistance at 5600 - 5650 and 5675.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options increased marginally to 0.83 as against 0.75 level yesterday.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 04.05.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE :

In today's trading, Nifty Future opened weak and after the announcement of the Credit Policy, and once below the support at 5700 - fell sharply. During the day, Nifty Future made a high of 5726 and low of 5560. It closed weak @ 5569 - near the low of the day. Bank stocks took a strong beating and Bank Nifty future fell by over 3%.

After today's fall, we are once again close to the key support level of 5555 and also near the gaps left at 5553 and 5504. As shown on the EOD chart, we have a trend line support (in brown) at 5500. While we have to meet the target of 5393 left a few day's back, I expect Nifty Future to bounce once the gap is filled. This bounce can go up to 5700.

In the event 5500 level is broken, Nifty Future will go down to the level of 5393 or to the previous support of 5357.

As Nifty Future is quite over sold on the 30 min chart, I would expect it to fill the gap up to 5500 and bounce from that level. In view of the same, one needs cover short positions or at least trail them with tight stop loss.

For tomorrow, one can consider buying 5600 call option when Nifty Future trades near 5500 and takes support at that level. On the higher level, Nifty Future will find strong resistance at 5675-5700 level. It would be better to create fresh short position at this level with stop loss of 5735.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options decreased to 0.75 as against 0.90 yesterday.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 03.05.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE:

After initial euphoria when Nifty Future made the day's high of 5790, it maintained downward bias throughout the day and made the day's low of 5703 and closed the day at 5725. As such, Credit Policy tomorrow remained a major concern that over shadowed the euphoria generated due to news on Osama and resulted in Bank Nifty Future falling by over 2%. The good part was that Nifty Future remained above the support level of 5700.

For tomorrow, short position may be avoided at lower levels, as there are multiple supports at 5700 - 5680 level and Nifty Future has been falling for the past 6 days. Stop loss for existing long positions may be kept at 5771.

Fresh long positions may be considered above 5771 with stop loss of 5745. On the higher side 5820 - 5900 will provide resistance.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options remained marginally lower at 0.90 as against 0.97 on the previous trading day.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 02.05.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE :

In Friday's trading, Nifty Future ended the week on a bearish note and made a low of 5720 - near to the previous low of 5703. Friday' close at 5754 is just below the 200 DMA of 5760.

For tomorrow, short position may be considered when Nifty Future trades at higher levels with stop loss of 5865. In case of a weak opening, short position may be avoided at lower levels as 5700 levels can provide support as it is mid point on the TP Grid as well as there is a Trend Line (in Blue) on the EOD chart, which will provide support. Weakness will accelerate only when Nifty Future trades below 5700. On the down side 5675 and 5600 will provide support.

Long positions may be avoided for now as RBI credit policy on 3rd will decide the future course of the market and it would be better to wait as market could get a clear direction after the Credit Policy.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options increased to 0.97 as against 0.79 on the previous trading day.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.