TURNING POINTS FOR 01.04.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE:

After a firm opening, Nifty Future went up to make a high of 5880 but then gave up all the gains to make the day's low of 5783 and closed the day at 5824. The day's candle is a doji - indicating indecision. Higher top / higher bottom formation continues in the EOD chart. As shown on the EOD chart, 5880 level coincides with the trend line and also an important Fib level and hence as indicated in today's post correction was most likely. We are now done with FNO settlement as well as NAV considerations for the last day of the Financial Year. Moreover, considering the one way rise for 8th day in a row, in any case correction is overdue and logical.

For tomorrow, in case Nifty Future makes an attempt to go up, one can consider going short at higher levels with Stop Loss of 5920 (safer one is 5942). On the downside, it will find support at 5785 - 5760 and 5740. While Nifty Future may make an attempt to go up once again, but I do not think it is advisable to go long - either in Nifty Future or individual stocks at these levels. Correction must take place either tomorrow or early next week as result season is at least a week away. Today's last 30 min up move must be looked at in light of there being FNO settlement today. Correction up to 5500 level (don't forget the gaps) will give better opportunity to go long. As such, once World Cup fever is over this Saturday, we have to once again face the realities of 2G scam, inflation, rising interest rates etc....

Put Call Ratio of Index Options decreased to 1.04 as against 1.11 yesterday.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 31.03.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE:

Yesterday's session we had one more up day (7th in a row) that too without participation from Reliance. Day's high at 5818 is at 0.618 level of the previous swing as shown on the EOD chart. After an intra day correction to make the day's low of 5771, Nifty Future closed at 5799. One more day when we have a small upper shadow on the EOD candle - suggesting selling at higher levels.

Tomorrow is an important day in view of FNO settlement and last day for the F.Y. 2010-11, an important for NAV calculation by Mutual Funds. Considering the close near the high of the day, we may see a firm opening to take Nifty Future to one more strong resistance level of 5865. This level is a trend line from two different positions (as shown on the EOD chart) and hence unlikely to be crossed in the first attempt. Moreover, this may be good level for a starting of a sharp correction, much awaited by me to fill the gaps near 5500 levels. Please watch 1050 level for Reliance as crossing of this level can bring additional strength to Nifty Future.

Short position may be considered only below 5760 with stop loss of 5800. On the down side, 5740 and 5700 will provide support. One can even consider going short at 5865 level with strict stop loss of 5905. Negative divergence continues on the 30 min chart, but the effect of it will be felt only when Nifty Future trades below 5760.

Please note that Dow is almost near the previous level of 12400 and much will depend whether it see a deeper correction after making a double top. To my understanding, the underlying factors haven't changed much - either here or abroad, over the last week (except of course a great win by India yesterday over Pakistan) for markets to rise for 7 days in a row.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options remained almost unchanged at 1.11 as against 1.10 yesterday.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 30.03.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE:

In today's trading, Nifty future opened firm and remained so for the day to make the day's high of 5788 (low of 5695), but the last one hour saw some profit booking to close the day at 5751. Once again we have small upper shadow on the EOD candle - not the best thing to happen. The main positive for the day is that it was higher top / higher bottom - 6th day in a row!

Considering the strength shown (though looks little stretched now due to 6 day rise) there is a good possibility of Nifty Future hitting 5825 - a level referred to in the Monthly chart updated on last Saturday. In view of the support from the up move in World markets and FNO settlement on Thursday and Financial year end valuation on the same day, we can expect the Nifty Future to reach the level of 5825 by then and see a correction thereafter.

Short position may be considered only below 5725 with stop loss of 5755. On the down side, it will find support at 5690 and 5670.

Negative divergence has started appearing on the 30 min chart and hence it is not advisable to create fresh position at higher levels. Moreover, existing long positions should be trailed with strict stop loss.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options remained almost same at 1.10 as against 1.05 yesterday.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 29.03.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE:

After a firm opening and making the day's low of 5664, Nifty Future continued its up move to make the day's high of 5729 and closed at 5700 - leaving some upper shadow on the EOD candle and indicating selling at higher levels. We are now in high resistance zone and hence this should be considered normal thing to happen.

For tomorrow, one can consider going short below 5670 with stop loss of 5705. On the down side it will find support at 5635 - 5585 and 5545.

In the event of Nifty Future continuing its up move, 5765 will be an important resistance level.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options remained almost unchanged at 1.05 as against 1.08 on the previous trading day.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 28.03.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE:

Last Friday's trading ended near the week's high - that too after breaking out of the sideways movement for the past few weeks on the EOD chart. However, as can be seen on the EOD chart, the high for Friday at 5693 is just at the 50% level as well as 200 DMA which for Friday was 5700 - a nice coincidence! Generally, 200 DMA act as a support/resistance at least for once. If that is going to be true this time too, we should see a correction next week as we have left Gaps on the last two days i.e. around 5500. This level will also provide trend line support too as can be seen on the EOD chart.

Considering that the close for the day/week has been strong, we may have a strong opening tomorrow, but further up, we have 5730 as a strong resistance. Hence fresh buying should be avoided at higher levels. In case of first sign of weakness, once can consider going short with 5730 as a stop loss. On the down side 5600 - 5565 and 5525 will provide support. Now, weakness will be seen only when Nifty Future trades below 5500.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options decreased to 1.08 as against 1.22 yesterday.

As mentioned in the weekly post current levels offer good opportunity to sell delivery based stocks as the reasons for which market fell, have not changed much.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR WEEKENDED 25.03.2011

NIFTY FUTURE WEEKLY

What a week that was or rather what a big Friday that helped Nifty Future once again make 336 points for the week (High 5693 & Low 5357). While I had been mentioning in my post that 5700 was possible but had no idea that it could be achieved so fast - since there is no change in the ground realities. Nifty Future closed for the week at 5681.

As can be seen on the Weekly chart, we are at the uppermost point of the range, but considering the strength shown for the weekly close, we may see a firm opening on Monday when Nifty Future may face resistance at 5725-5750 range and when this is crossed 5825 is the next resistance level.

Considering the strength seen on Friday (mainly due to Infosys & Bank Stocks), I would not recommend sell at higher levels, but I do not feel the above levels can be crossed without a correction. Moreover, on Friday the 200 DMA is also 5700 almost the same as the high made for the day/week.

It may be interesting to note that the low of 5357 on Monday was made on 21st Mar, a Gann turn date. By the end of week we are up by almost 6%.

Next week could turnout to be an interesting one with Year end consideration, FNO settlement on 31st and Nifty Future close to 200 DMA and other major resistance levels.

In my view, it is better to book profit and may be regret later if market trades higher, rather than take additional risks at higher levels or miss the opportunity to take the profits.

Have a nice weekend!

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 25.03.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE:

In today's trading Nifty Future opened with a gap and then remained sideways except in the last 30 min when it made the day's high of 5553 (low of 5510) and closed at 5546 - near the high of the day. Noteworthy point is that we have broken the triangle on the upside, now giving the target of 5800. While this is the technical target for the triangle, we must not forget various hurdles along the way. Another important point is that we remain below the oft repeated level of 5555 and 5570 but the possibility of crossing them tomottow can not be ruled out.

There is no denying the fact that the market has shown the strength for the past two days, but considering that we are closer to the various resistance levels viz, 5570 - 5615 and 5700 (channel resistance and 200 DMA) I find the risk reward against the buyer as we continue to remain in the sideways market and that too at the higher range.

Considering the strength shown by Nifty Future today, it is better to consider fresh short positions only below 5500 with stop loss of 5530.

We are now just 4 trading sessions away from the FNO settlement day, hence call options must be protected with strict stop loss levels as they may loose value.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options increased to 1.22 as against 1.13 yesterday.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 24.03.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE:

In today's trading, Nifty Future opened firm and went up in the first 30 mins. Thereafter it remained sideways for the better part of the day - only 20 points range if you take out the 1st and last 30 min bar. The high & low during the day was 5505 and 5357 respectively. It closed at 5500 - near the high of the day indicating strength. Nifty Future continues to remain within the triangle, but is now near the upper trend line and also closer to multiple resistance levels.

If today's momentum is to sustain for tomorrow, Nifty Future should clear 5525 - 5555 and 5570. It is only above 5570 one has to accept the possibility of going up to 5700 is very high. I would not advise going long in view of the multiple resistance levels mentioned above. As such in case of weakness in the opening session, one of these levels can be used as stop loss levels for going short.

Fresh short position may be created below 5480 with stop loss of 5505. On the down side, it will find support at 5465 - 5430 and 5400. Weakness will accelerate below 5375.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options remained unchanged at 1.13.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 23.03.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE :

As expected Nifty Future open firm and remained so throughout the day, but with a narrow range - suggesting caution. The day's High & Low were 5449 and 5388 respectively and closed the day at 5434. With yesterday's movement we continue to remain withing the triangle shown on the chart (in brown) and hence does not indicate either side bias.

For today, short position may be considered below 5400 with stop loss of 5435. On the downside it will support at 5385 - 5365 and 5320.

Long positions are best avoided until we get a clear indication of the strength returning to the market.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options increased to 1.13 as against 0.99 on the previous trading day.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 22.03.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE:

In today's trading, weakness continued in Nifty Future right from the beginning of the trading session. During the day, Nifty Future managed a high of 5425 and low of 5357 amidst volatility. The point to be noted is that today's close at 5380 is the lowest for the past 13 days - suggesting weakness. However, we also need to factor that the close has been above 5375 - a critical level below which I had been suggesting weakness. I have redrawn the triangle (in Brown) on EOD / 30 min chart, covering today's lower levels. From the EOD triangle it is evident that if Nifty Future remains above 5375 or more specifically above 5425 (considering today's resistance level) it can go up to 5520 - particularly as World markets are trading higher with the hope that Japan's Nuclear Leak problem will get resolved soon. Please note that as long as Nifty Future remains within the triangle and as it approaches the apex of the triangle it can breakout on either side with forceful effect - either this week or definitely the next.

In view of the above, it is better to consider fresh short position only below today's low of 5357 or at higher levels depending on the situation as it unfolds over the next few days.

For those with higher appetite for risk can consider going long above 5425 with stop loss of 5375. on the higher side it will find resistance at 5465 - 5490 and 5520.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options increased marginally to 0.99 as against 0.92 on the previous trading day.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 21.03.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE :

In Friday's trading, Nifty Future remained weak throughout the day and not only broke the triangle, but also closed outside it - suggesting weakness. It made the day's high at 5502 and low at 5580. It closed the day at 5387. As was being mentioned in my post last week, weakness accelerates only below 5375. We are now at that point and in that respect next week becomes important - that too starting the week with important Gann date.

For tomorrow, it is important to see whether, Nifty Future trades below 5375 to confirm the weakness and short positions should be monitored with strict stop loss of 5420 as we are once again near the lower end of the 13 day range. On the down side it will find support at 5310 - 5265 and 5220 level.

As the triangle has been broken on the EOD chart, I have shown the pattern target of 5020. However, it must be noted that there are many support areas where Nifty Future can take support and bounce one more time. Please do factor the possibility of all round feel good factor once when Japan Nuclear Leak issue is brought under control.

Considering the weakness displayed by our markets on Friday (led by Reliance and Infosys), I would not advise going long at these levels as weight of evidence is in favor of Nifty Future seeing lower levels.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options was at 0.92 as against 1.01 on the previous trading day.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR WEEKENDED 18.03.2011

NIFTY FUTURE WEEKLY

NIFTY FUTURE:

During the week, Nifty Future made a range of 186 points (High 5562 & Low 5376) and closed near the low of the week at 5387. A weak closing that too in the 7th week which is important if past is any indication. Moreover, on the weekly chart, Nifty Future made a lower top/ lower bottom - though broadly it remained range bound. Considering the weak close and the previous indication of the 7 weeks, one has to be prepared for Nifty Future to breach the previous low of 5375.

In an unlikely event of Nifty Future opening firm on Monday, one can consider the level of 5375 as a stop loss for long position.

On the way down, 5310 and 5265 will provide support. Weakness will accelerate only when 5250 is broken.

While Japan's Nuclear Leak is yet to get under control, we have one more leak from WikiLeaks affecting our politics. Will this season of Leaks take Nifty Future down and break the 5250 level? I guess, next week should be an interesting one as the 21 weeks time period indicated since last Diwali will soon come to an end. While, the price target of 4400 does seem far away, one needs to wait and watch what happens if and when 5250 is broken on the down side.

Wishing you all a "A HAPPY HOLI".

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 18.03.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE :

On the back of fall in US markets, Nifty Future opened weak, but showed strength by making an attempt to go up and made day's high of 5529. In the second session, Nifty Future started getting weak and broke the low made in the morning session and made the day's low of 5450 and closed at 5467. At the end of it all, we made a lower top / lower bottom - a sign of weakness.

It should be noted that, we are trading within 5575 and 5375 range for the past 9 trading days. Moreover, I have marked a triangle on the EOD as well as 30 min chart and we have closed almost in the middle. Hence, unless this range is broken on either side, the markets will continue to remain volatile and directionless.

For tomorrow, fresh short positions may be considered below 5450 with stop loss of 5480. On the downside, it will find support at 5400-5420 range, Once this is broken, the fall may accelerate.

While I would not advise long position, but considering the resilience shown by our markets, one needs to be careful about short positions as well. In case Nifty Future breaks 5570, there is a good possibility that we may see Nifty Future to go up to 5700 levels. Just factor the possibility of Japan averting Nuclear disaster could take the markets up - at least as a kneejerk reaction.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options decreased to 1.01 as against 1.21 yesterday.

Tomorrow is the last trading day of the week and we are also very close to the apex of the triangle on the EOD chart, and breakout in either direction could be sharp, hence please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 17.03.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE :

In today's trading, Nifty Future opened firm and after making the day's low of 4477 in the early trades, maintained upward bias throughout the day and made a high of 5553 and closed the day at 5524. The point to be noted here is that we are close to the upper range and near the trend line and a previous high of 5572. Except for a small upper shadow on the EOD candle, one can not find fault about the strength displayed by the market.

Before getting euphoric about this rise, one needs to remember that we are in a range bound market for the 7th week in a row and hence one tends to get optimistic when market hovers around the upper range. Till now the hopes have been belied every time the markets have moved near the upper range and this time may not be different unless we are able to cross (ideally close above) 5575. Once this level is crossed there is a good possibility of Nifty Future able to do 5680 - the lower channel on the Monthly chart. Please note that Nifty Future can continue the down move even if this level is hit.

I would maintain my bearish stance for this week as it is the 7th and may be the last week, before the market gets a definite direction - if past pattern is of any indication. Moreover, recent concerns of a Nuclear disaster continue to haunt Japan and could provide the trigger to take the markets down.

Short positions may be considered below 5490 with stop loss of 5530. On the down side, it will find support at 5465, 5420 and break of 5400 will accelerate bearishness.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options decreased to 1.21 as against 1.30 yesterday.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 16.03.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE :

In contrast to the strong closing yesterday, on the back of weak Nikkei and other Global Markets, Nifty Future opened with a downside gap and made the day's low of 5375 - the level referred to in my post for the past few days. It saw sharp up move to the day's high of 5505 and closed at 5448. On the EOD chart you will find that the closing is below a small trend line suggesting weakness. Add to that weakness in US & European markets at the time of writing this post, it does seem likely that we could go below 5375 tomorrow.

For tomorrow, one can consider going short below 5420 with a stop loss of 5460. On the down side, it will find support at 5375 and thereafter the weakness will accelerate. On the down side Nifty Future will find support at 5300 - 5270 and 5230. Considering the reasons given in the weekly post, it is best to avoid buying Nifty Future at lower levels, as break of 5230 will start a fresh down move.

Once again I would reiterate that long positions are best avoided in these uncertain times where no one really knows the implications of a nuclear disaster. I guess things should settle down by 21st March which happens to be a Gann turn date.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options increased to 1.30 as against 1.08 yesterday.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 15.03.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE :

In today' s trading, Nifty Future opened firm and maintained upward bias throughout the day, with last hour showing strength - may be due to short cutting. During the day, Nifty Future made a low of 5448 and high of 5562 in the last 30 min and closed the day at 5555. We are now near the upper end of the range and hence caution is advisable for long positions. In case today's momentum is maintained tomorrow, we have resistances starting from 5570 - 5610 - 5650 and the most important one being 5700.

As all the World markets are trading down, it is unlikely that we will have a contrary situation for long. In view of the same, it is better to avoid fresh long positions at higher levels. On the contrary, those who have bought shares in cash market, would do well to sell the shares, so that the same can be bought at lower levels.

Short positions should be considered below 5490, with stop loss of 5525. On the down side, it will have support at 5420 and key support at 5375. Alternatively, higher levels given above may be considered as stop loss for going short.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options decreased to 1.08 as against 1.13 on the previous trading day.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 14.03.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE:

In Friday's trading Nifty Future remained weak and the day's High & Low were 5515 and 5413. It closed the day at 5460 and the day's candle appears like a doji. As can be seen on the EOD chart, the day's low was on the trend line and also above 5400 that led to some sort of a recovery by the end of the day.

For tomorrow, short position may be taken with a stop loss of 5500. On the break of 5420, it will take support at 5375. As is being mentioned for some time now, break of 5375 will make Nifty Future very weak and hence long positions should be avoided till such time there is an indication of stability. Further down, 5300 and 5260 will provide support.

Considering the weakness in World markets, it is best to avoid fresh long positions for now.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options increased marginally to 1.13 as against 1.07 on the previous trading day.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR WEEKENDED 11.03.2011

NIFTY FUTURE WEEKLY

One more week that has gone directionless. Last week Nifty Future traded with 173 points range - much smaller range compared to the previous week. The weeks' high was 5573 and low was 5400. Friday's low of 5413 was just above the previous low of 5400. As such, I had indicated that bearishness will accelerate only below 5375. The week closed at 5460 and the weekly candle represents a doji - suggesting neutral bias.

On the weekly chart, I have shown an inverted flag pattern. On previous occasion we had range bound movement for 7 weeks. This time around, we have completed 6 weeks and hence next week should be critical for providing direction. Another point worth noting is that the breakout point on either side is almost 200 points away from last week's close of 5460.

As the oscillators on the weekly chart continue to remain in the sell mode and Nifty Future remains below 5555 level, I continue to believe that the odds of Nifty Future breaking 5200 level remain high. As you must have seen over the past weeks, all sorts of events natural/man made are happening which do not provide much enthusiasm for the upside.

The first signal for the downside will be provided when 5375 is broken and for the upside caution is advised above 5555.

We are currently trading just above the much traded zone of 4700 - 5300 during Sept 2009 to Jul 2010. During that period we had traded this range almost 4 times before breaking out on the upside (thanks to the FII money pouring in). May be the market is waiting for some strong news/event that would provide reasons good enough to pierce this much traded range.

Let us hope next week the market gets a definite direction, till then - keep trading the range.

Have a nice weekend!

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 11.03.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE :

In today's trading, Nifty Future opened weak and made the day's low of 5466. Though it made an attempt to go up it remained in a small range of 49 points throughout the day. Once again it closed (5505)near the high (5515) of the day and left lower shadow on the EOD candle. In any case, weakness was apparent as it made a lower top / lower bottom. On the 30 min chart you will find that it just managed to stay above the Andrew's Pitchfork. Steel and Banking sector accounted for the major part of the fall.

In view of the weakness today, it is advisable to stay away from fresh long positions.

Fresh short positions should be taken below 5465 with a stop loss of 5505. On the lower side, it will find support at 5420 and 5375. Weakness will accelerate below 5375.

As discussed in the last weekly post, we are in a sideways trend on the weekly chart for the 6th week. In case we close below 5400 tomorrow, we would be at a striking distance to go below 5200 next week (that would be the 7th week like earlier occasion). At the same time, any close above 5570 will favour the bulls. Hence, please plan your trading strategy for the next week accordingly.

At the time of writing this post, World markets are trading weak (down by over 1 %)and this could adversely affect the sentiment tomorrow.

Put Call Ratio of Index options increased to 1.07 as against 0.97 yesterday.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 10.03.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE:

After a steady opening, Nifty Future maintained downward bias in the first half of the trading session and made the day's low at 5478. Thereafter, Nifty Future made a sharp up move and made the day's high at 5573 and closed the day at 5542. Once again, we have good buying support at lower level and the EOD candle has long lower shadow and has made higher top and higher bottom. The point to be noted is that despite the apparent bullishness, we are yet to see Nifty Future close above 5555 - key level referred to many times.

Another interesting coincidence marked on the EOD chart is that today's trading day is away by 44,64 & 84 (gap of 20) day's from the previous top. While primafacie it is just a coincidence, but quite a unique one and hence the mention. Is it trying to indicate something? Well we should know tomorrow!

While today's candle does indicate possibility of bullishness tomorrow, but considering the hurdle at 5570, I would not advise long position for tomorrow.

Short position should be taken below 5475 with a stop loss of 5510. On the down side it will find support at 5440, 5400 and 5375. Weakness will accelerate below 5375.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options marginally decreased to 0.97 as against 1.02 yesterday.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS, particularly in light of the coincidence mentioned above.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 09.03.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE:

In today's trading, Nifty Future opened strong and remained sideways above 5500 levels. The day's low was at 5467 and high was at 5548. It closed the day strong at 5536. As expected, it filled the gap left in the opening session yesterday.

Existing short positions should be maintained with a stop loss of 5555 or 5570. Once above this level, it will retest the previous level of 5610. Further up, it will find hurdle at 5670 (200 day SMA). Considering that today's close is near the high of the day, this possibility cannot be ruled out.

Fresh long position can be considered above 5555 or 5570 as once above this level, it can go up to 5670, as indicated by the flag pattern on the 30 min chart.

Fresh short position should be taken only below 5490 with a stop loss of 5530. On the down side it will find support at 5470 and 5420.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options increased to 1.02 as against 0.94 yesterday.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS. Specially, long positions created at higher level must be taken with strict stop loss, in case the market reverses.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 08.03.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE:

In today's trading, Nifty Future opened with a downside gap at 5500 and continued to remain weak to make the day's low of 5400. In the second session, it came back to the opening levels and closed the day at 5476. While the close has been weak and Nifty Future has started making lower top / lower bottom, the noteworthy point is that there has been a long lower shadow, suggesting support at lower levels.

Considering the long lower shadow, it is likely that, Nifty Future may go up to 5530 and fill the gap left today. However, it is not advisable to create fresh long positions. Instead, one can consider going short at higher levels with strict stop loss of 5555. In case of a weak opening, one can consider short position below 5450 with stop loss of 5480. On the lower side, it will find support at 5420 and 5375. Weakness will accelerate below 5375. Lower down, 5300 and 5220 will provide support.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options decreased to 0.94 as against 1.09 on the previous trading day.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 07.03.2011

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE:

In Friday's trading, Nifty Future opened with a gap to make the day's high of 5612, but could not sustain at higher levels and remained weak throughout the day to make the day's low of 5518 and closed the day at 5536. It may be noted that despite attempts to go up during the last week, Nifty Future has not been able to close above the often repeated resistance level of 5555. Secondly, considering the upper shadow on the candle for the last two sessions indicates that there has been selling at higher levels.

On the EOD chart, you will find that 50 SMA has cut the 200 SMA (5663), which by itself is a bearish signal.

Going by the media reports that DMK plans to withdraw support to the UPA Govt. could lead to weak opening tomorrow. It is better not to go short in case of gap down opening.

Short position may be considered below 5490 with stop loss of 5535. On the down side, it will find support at 5460 and 5420. Please note that bearishness accelerates only below 5375, hence one need not panic at a weak opening tomorrow.

Considering the reasons given in the weekly post, I would not recommend long position at higher levels.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options increased to 1.09 as against 1.01 on the previous trading day.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR WEEKENDED 04.03.2011

NIFTY FUTURE WEEKLY / BANK NIFTY FUTURE WEEKLY

NIFTY FUTURE :

Last week, saw a sharp rise from the bottom of 5310 to a high of 5612 - a range of 302 points. While the rise has been sharp, when seen in perspective with the previous weeks, it has been a sideways move. Interestingly, we had a similar phase of sideways movement in Dec/Jan for 7 weeks and thereafter it fell down to the current range of 5200 - 5600. (Please see the chart with lines marked in Blue).

When compared with the previous phase, we must also remember, that this time we are out of the channel (shown in Yellow), which itself indicates weakness. We have already completed 5 weeks of sideways movement.

The pattern referred on the charts is an inverted Flag in both the situations. While last time the pattern target was achieved, this time the pattern target is around 4200. This also coincides with Right Shoulder target of 4400 which is being mentioned in my post for many weeks now. The breakout on the lower side is at 5230 which also coincides with the trend line, which provided support at 5175.

The Oscillators on the weekly chart continue to suggest weakness.

BANK NIFTY FUTURE:

There is a similar sideways movement on the Bank Nifty Future as shown on the attached chart. The breakout on the down side will be at 10000 which provided support last time. The next support is at 9000.

One may wonder what could precipitate the fall. The main reason could be the Oil price hike which could lead to further worries on inflation. Besides of course the many issues like Corruptions/Scams etc. which keep coming up with regularity in a large democracy like ours.

The purpose of this post is not to alarm and possibly spoil your weekend, but to help you plan your strategy to benefit from the fall - either by going short at the appropriate levels or at least by selling your stocks so that you can buy at lower levels, if and when the fall happens.

Hope this post will help you to ponder, discuss and decide your strategy over the weekend.

Have a nice weekend!

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 04.03.2011

In view of problems in downloading the data, unable to prepare the charts.

Nifty Future:

In today's trading, Nifty Future opened weak and went down to make the day's low of 5477 and immediately thereafter (in less than an hour) made the day's high at 5598. In the second half, it once again it wiped out all the gains and closed the day at 5545. The day's candle would look like a doji suggesting indecision. The fact that Nifty Future made a new high - thus making higher top and higher bottom, the bias remains positive. Moreover, today's price bar remains above the trend line on the EOD chart indicates that we had a pause, in view of the sharp rise on the previous trading day.

For tomorrow, one can consider going long with a 5525. On the higher side, it will face resistance at 5600 - 5640 and 5675. As mentioned yesterday, we are now entering a strong resistance area hence any buy position should be taken with a tight stop loss.

Short positions may be considered at higher levels with strict stop loss as the next higher level indicated above. On the lower side, Nifty Future will get weak below 5485 with support at 5450 and 5420.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options decreased marginally to 1.01 as against 1.08 on the previous trading day.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.