TURNING POINTS FOR 01.12.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN /NIFTY FUTURE EOD / NIFTY FUTURE MONTHLY
2011 CALENDAR WITH NSE TRADING HOLIDAYS UPLOADED.
HISTORY CHECK : 10/10 BULLISH CLOSE
NIFTY FUTURE:

Though DOW recovered much of the loss by the closing, we had a weak opening and in the first half, made a low of 5777 (11 points lower than yesterday). After the mid session, it made a sharp recovery (led by Banking sector) to make a high of 5915 and closed at 5887. In view of the strong close, we can expect good opening and one can consider going long with a stop loss of 5840. On the higher side, it will find resistance at 5950 and 6000. Resistance at 6000 should be a tough nut to crack - particularly with Reliance and Infosys both not taking the lead. Thereafter we have 6040 and 6100 which will act as resistance.

Short position may be taken below 5840 with a stop loss of 5880. On the downside, it will find support at 5800. It would be better to trail your position if Nifty Future goes below 5800 - which looks unlikely looking at today's candle. For the new month, Nifty should at least do 6000 and may reverse thereafter.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options decreased to 0.82 as against 0.99 yesterday.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

PS : I have attached the Monthly chart, but have avoided making comments in this post. This has been done intentionally as it will induce the visitor to refer my noting on the chart and also see the chart to get the right impact and take an unbiased view. Whatever may be your view - its a must see and if possible keep it for future reference. Interestingly, we have 10/10 bullish close in the past 10 years. Will this time be different ? Let's keep our fingers crossed and stay tuned to the market (and not the TV channels) and don't forget to protect the trades with great care.

TURNING POINTS FOR 30.11.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE:

In today's trading, Nifty Future had a strong open and made the day's low of 5788 and there after maintained upward bias (with good support from Reliance) throughout the day and made a high of 5864. As the high of the day was made during the last 30 min, the close for the day has been reported as 5845.

On the EOD chart you will observe that Nifty Future remained just below the trend line. We can expect Nifty Future to gain further momentum only upon crossing the trend line above 5850 or better still after breaking today's high of 5864.

Those who have seen my noting on the DOW chart, I had mentioned that below 11000, it would break the inverted Flag on the down side. At the time of writing this post, it has gone down below 11000 on the back of European Debt Crisis. The inverted flag gives a target of about 10525. This point must be kept in mind while taking long position in our markets also as in light of weak closing in DOW today, we too may not gather the desired momentum to have a monthly close anywhere near 6000. Thus monthly candle for Nifty Future will be extremely bearish.

For tomorrow, one can hold existing long position with a strict stop loss of 5800. It will be better to create fresh long position only above 5865. One can even consider going short below 5800 with stop loss of 5835. On the down side we may see sharp decline to 5725 and 5675 levels. In this event, long positions should be avoided till Nifty Future takes support at 5550 levels.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options decreased to 0.99 as against 1.11 on the previous trading day.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 29.11.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE :

As expected Nifty Future had a sharp bounce on Friday after making a low of 5727, but closed at 5778, may be due to weekend considerations. As can be seen on the EOD chart, Nifty Future took support at 0.618 level as well as Andrew Pitchfork line and also completed the H & S target shown on 30 min chart during the past week.

Though Nifty Future looks weak on Weekly chart, a bounce can be expected more so with month end just 2 days away. Tomorrow, one can consider going long with a stop loss of 5700 to start with and it can be taken up to 5725 after an hour of trading. As you will observe on the EOD chart, once the trend line is broken when Nifty Future trades above 5760, it will gather momentum which can take it up to a strong resistance area of 6000 at least by Tuesday. It is therefore advisable not to remain short above 5760. On the way up it will face resistance at 5815 - 5865 - 5900 & 5940.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options marginally increased to 1.11 as against 1.05 on the previous trading day.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR WEEKENDED 26.11.2010

NIFTY FUTURE WEEK ENDED 26.11.2010

NIFTY FUTURE:

Yesterday, we had a 3rd down week, which closed near the low of the week. While it may be too early to confirm the down move will lead to the formation of the Right Shoulder (shown in Green on the chart) which I have been indicating on the weekly chart for some time now, but I am sure the hard core bull will also now factor that as a distinct possibility.

The past week saw a big range of 300 points (high of 6027 and low of 5727) amidst high level of volatility particularly yesterday, when Nifty Future saw a sharp bounce of 100 points from a low of 5727, but by the end of the day it closed near the low of the week.

Another indication of the weakness in Nifty Future is that the weekly candle has closed below the Andrew's Pitchfork on the weekly chart. The hope for the bounce came from the 0.382 level and trend line support around 5725 level.

If Nifty Future breaks the level of 5725 next week, the next strong support level is 5500-5550. Considering a weak close, this possibility can not be ruled out.

We are now just 2 trading days away from the monthly close. Even assuming the best case scenario of closing nearer to 6000 levels, we will still not have a monthly candle that would suggest continuation of Bull Run in the immediate future.

In view of the persistent fall for the past 3 weeks, are we likely to really see the levels of 4400 for making of a Right Shoulder that I have been visualising? While it may have started as a fragment of my imagination, but the way the events have unfolded over the past one week, it does give an impression that it can turn out as a reality. All we need now is some event internationally which forces FII's to be consistent sellers - don't miss to see the possibility of inverted flag on the DOW EOD chart uploaded today. If Nifty Future remains below 5500 I would consider that probability to be much higher. This scenario get negated if once again we start trading above 6100. I am sure those following TP Grid will catch the turns without involving the risk of wrong judgement.

For those who are statistically oriented and are following TP Grid - at the close of last week, we had 24 scrips (out of Nifty Fifty) trading below the mid point of 52 Week Hi and Lo. As the market gets lower, this number will increase. So don't be complacent, add an unbiased statistical tool to your analysis that helps you to remain on the right side of the market - irrespective what experts have to tell you in the media.

Have a nice weekend and keep learning.

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 26.11.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE :

In the initial trades, Nifty Future made a high of 5909 but thereafter maintained a downward bias. The initial up move was largely supported by rise in IT stocks led by Infosys.

After many months, we have a FNO settlement which was on a lower side. The good part of the fall is that we are now close to the pattern target of 5750 while the not so good part of the fall is that it closed below the trend line support on EOD chart. There being multiple support at 5750 - 5725 region - I believe, bounce seems imminent and hence will not advise going short at these levels. Bank Nifty too is at a key support from which bounce is possible. While I expect support at these levels, big up move is possible only if Nifty Future is able to cross 6000 and more importantly 6100. Till then, I would consider the up move as mere pull back. Just a word of caution - in the event market goes below 5700, the next major support area is 5550.

As indicated above, tomorrow one can consider going long around 5750 levels with stop loss of 5700. On higher side, it will find resistance at 5850 and 5885. Please do not remain short above 5925. Avoid going short at lower levels.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options declined to 1.05 as against 1.11 yesterday.

Please do not trade with out STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 25.11.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE:

After a steady opening, Nifty Future made a high of 5987 and there after remained weak and in the last hour collapsed on the back of one more scam - the extent of which is still not known. Point to note is that, Nifty Future did not go below yesterday's low (may be for want of time) and has taken support at the trend line shown on the EOD chart.

Important thing for tomorrow is whether we go below the Trend Line on the EOD chart or in other words below 5800. The way the scam news is played by the media channels there could be a lower opening, in that case Nifty Future will go below the trend line to seek support at 5750 level, being referred in my post for a few days now. Tomorrow also happens to be FNO settlement day and the Scam news will only go to make the market more volatile. In these circumstances taking intra day trades may need some extra courage and lot of luck on your side.

Short position may be taken only below 5800, with stop loss of 5840. On the down side, it will find support at 5750 or max 5725 if this news makes the market very bearish. Please keep your TV sets mute so that you do not get very bearish when the markets are hitting the bottom. If you notice the EOD Chart, the fall from 6349 is perpendicular and 5725-5750 has the potential to provide good support - at least for a decent bounce.

Long position may be taken at 5725-5750 levels in Dec series, with strict stop loss of 5700. On higher side it will find resistance at 5940 and 6000.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options remained almost unchanged at 1.11 as against 1.08 yesterday.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

PS: Dow will get weak only when it goes below 11000.

Words of Wisdom

The worst decisions, in life and markets, come from extremes:

overconfidence and a lack of confidence.

TURNING POINTS FOR 24.11.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE :

In today's trading, Nifty Future opened weak and maintained downward bias and precipitated in to a sharp fall due to problems in Korea. While we are still not done with our own 2G Scam, the market in now faced with an international problem. This pulled market down to a new low of 5822 and there after saw a sharp up move of almost 100 points (due to trend line support on the EOD chart) to close the markets at 5941. We still have to contend with a lower top and lower bottom for the day and also a lower low on the weekly chart. From today's movement, it appears that we will soon see the much awaited 5750 level to complete the pattern target being referred for the past few days.

For tomorrow, one should consider going short below 5900 with stop loss of 5940. On the down side if it breaks 5820 it will quickly go down to 5725-5750 levels. With just a day left for the FNO settlement, it would be better to create fresh long position at this level in the Dec FNO series. However, it should be noted that if the trend line is broken, Nifty Future will get weak and hence any buying at the support levels, should be bought for pullback only. It will be prudent to square of the positions intra day.

On the higher side. 6000 will provide strong resistance and it is best to avoid long positions at higher levels.

For investment buying - let the market give the signals to indicate that we are done with the downside.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options increased to 1.08 as against 1.02 yesterday.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 23.11.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE:

In today's trading, Nifty Future opened firm and after initial hesitation maintained an upward bias without breaking previous day's low. While this can be expected as in few days we had gone quite low (- 7.70%) and hence pull back should be considered normal.

Tomorrow should be an important day as we are approaching 6050 and major hurdle at 6100 which is a neck line on the 30 min chart. There is a good possibility for market to continue its down move from these levels. Short position may be taken around 6100 level
with about 30 points stop loss.

In case of weak opening, short position may be taken with stop loss at 6060. On the down side, it will find support at 5940 and 5850. We are yet to achieve the pattern target of 5750.

Long positions are best avoided at higher levels and should be considered at lower levels near 5750 with suitable stop loss.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options decreased to 1.02 as against 1.07 on the previous trading day.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 22.11.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE :

In Friday's trading, Nifty Future did not show the enthusiasm displayed on Thursday. Not only that, it maintained a downward bias throughout the day and because of turbulence on the political arena it resulted on a sell off, as traders did not wish to take the weekend risk. During the day, Nifty Future made a high of 6013 and low of 5860 and closed at 5890. We have already taken support on the 1st level of 5850 indicated in the previous post. In this sell off, we have also moved out of the rectangular range (in yellow colour) being shown on the EOD chart. We now have to contend with the target of 5750 being shown on the 30 min chart. Although to achieve this target Nifty Future has to break 5800 which can act as a support. As is being maintained in my post, 5750 - 5800 can provide good support for a bounce and hence it is advisable not to remain short and take a long trading position with a suitable stop loss. In my view, there is still time to look for investment buying.

On the higher side 5940 - 5970 and 6000 will act as strong resistance. We must also factor the volatility due to FNO settlement on the coming Thursday. How far this up move takes the index will decide the next course of market direction. Do remember that this down move is more a result of markets' own weight and the fear factor on the political front. As such, nothing has really gone wrong as yet and this is the result - what if things really precipitate on the political front? The threat remains till Tuesday.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options remained unchanged at 1.07.
Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.
With Best Wishes,
Ketan Asher.

WEEKLY TURNING POINTS FOR 19.11.2O10

NIFTY FUTURE WEEKLY

We ended the week yesterday on a weak note, as traders were not willing to take the risk over the weekend. Break of 5900 does make the market weak, but we must remember that we are 7.70% down from the top in two weeks. Lets face it, as of now nothing has happened on the political front - we all are aware that there have been many scams in the past too and nothing has come out of it. If nothing comes out of it this time too, there could be a sharp pull back next week.

As shown on the attached Weekly chart, we are close to the trend line support near 5800 and at 5750 we will achieve H & S pattern target of 5750 on the 30 min chart referred some days back. Hence it will be advisable to square off short position at these support levels or keep a tight trailing stop loss.

To decide the future course of market, it will be interesting to watch as to how far Nifty Future is able to pull back as 6000 and 6100 will provide tough resistance. Another important factor to keep in mind for the next week is the FNO settlement on Thursday and almost immediately followed by the month end candle in the following week.

At this level, do not remain too bearish, as Monday is also an important Gann turn date.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 19.11.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE:

In today's trading, Nifty Future opened at yesterday's level and made a high of 6047 in the early trading and suddenly fell down to a low 5925 and thereafter saw a sharp up move to make a high of 6057 and closed at 6032 - near the high of the day indicating a strong opening tomorrow (now supported by an up move in the US markets).

As indicated in yesterday's post, we are in a sideways market for some time and there are really no negative triggers (at least for now) for the market to fall perpendicularly - and hence the sharp up move. All said, we still saw a volatile day with a lower bottom and much lower top then yesterday. So please do not feel very euphoric about this sharp up move, as we will have to now contend with many hurdles on the way up. As we all know, going down the hill is much easier than climbing it - I guess, the same rule applies to the markets.

With tomorrow being a Friday and assuming a rise tomorrow, on weekly chart we will still be making a lower top (as the previous week's high is 6347) and lower bottom - for the first time after having made a new top on Muhurat trading day. Hope this observation helps the traders to contain their bullish enthusiasm and book profits when available.
For tomorrow, long position may be taken above 6060 with stop loss of 6030. On higher side, it will face strong resistance at 6100 as indicated on the 30 min chart. If it manages to cross 6100 we have resistances at 6135 and 6175.

Short positions may be taken at the resistance levels indicated above - but make sure to be quick on taking profits.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options inched up to 1.07 as against 1.01 on the previous trading day.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 18.11.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
PLEASE DO NOT MISS OUT THE PREVIOUS POST TITLED "EFFECTIVENESS OF 50% LEVEL"
NIFTY FUTURE:

In Tuesday's trading, after a steady opening and some sideways movement wherein Nifty Future made a high of 6134 and by mid session saw a sharp fall wherein it made a low of 5976 and closed weak at 5995 - just below 6000. We are now at the lower end of the trading range of 5950 and 6350 as has been highlighted in yellow colour on the EOD chart.

As indicated on the 30 min chart we have decisively broken out of a Head & Shoulder pattern with neckline at 6078. This gives the eventual pattern target of 5750. However, one should get bearish for this target only if previous low of 5940 is broken. Moreover, we have another support in swing mid point of 5850. Only if this level is broken, we should look for achieving the pattern target of 5750 indicated above. Being near the lower end of the trading range, short positions should be held with a tight stop loss of 6030 or 6065 depending on your risk profile. On the down side below 5940, Nifty Future will find support at 5900 and 5850.

We are now at a stage where 6100 will act as a strong resistance level and hence in case of strong opening, one can consider going short at higher range of 6075 - 6100, with 6135 as a stop loss.

One must bear in mind that Dow has a strong support at 11000 and will get more bearish only below that level. Having enjoyed a holiday today, our reaction to fall in Dow may get somewhat less aggressive tomorrow.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options remained almost same at 1.01 as against 1.00 on the previous trading day.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

EFFECTIVENESS OF 50 % LEVEL

A write up titled "IMPORTANCE OF 50% LEVEL" is now in public domain for over a month. Though many readers have downloaded it and some may have studied the idea, not one has found it worth their time to acknowledge the effectiveness or otherwise of this 'Simple Trading Idea'. Hence I believe the onus of doing the same falls upon me.

While I have no doubts about its effectiveness over the different time frames, I though it fit to publish some statistics with a profound hope that those who are still finding merit in believing in Tips and here say will gain faith in this idea and benefit from the same. The timing of this write up gains significance as we are on the threshold of seeing Nifty Future trade below 5950.

As can be observed from the TP Grid for Nifty Future that is updated every day, the median for 52 Week Hi/Lo and Annual 2010 is same. In most of the Nifty Fifty stocks too, the same is the case simply because new highs have taken place during the current calendar year.

As tomorrow is a market holiday, I did research Nifty Fifty items and find that out of 50 items 19 (including Reliance) are below the 50 % level, whereas 8 more are within 5% of the median level referred above. This takes the total to 27. If Nifty Future starts trading below 5950, I am sure this number will increase in the coming days and that itself will push Nifty Future and Bank Nifty Future downward to their mid point levels.

I hope the above statistics motivates some readers to spend time tomorrow, to work out the mid point levels in the items of their interest. Their efforts will not go wasted, as this point will also provide a good trading guide - whichever way the market moves. For those of the readers, who do not have arrangement for EOD data, I would suggest that this information (of 52 Week Hi/Lo) should be easily available on BSE/NSE website and hence should not be a difficult exercise.

Hope to receive feedback from those who are implementing this idea and also offer to explain this idea to small groups in a presentation that lasts about 2 hours - at a mutually convenient time.

Trust this helps.

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 16.11.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE:

In yesterday's trading, Nifty Future remained weak in the 1st half of the day and made a low of 6060 and in the last hour made a top of 6149 and closed firm at 6140. Though the close has been good, when we see the rise in context with previous week's fall - it looks miniscule. On the EOD chart, you will observe current trading range of 5953 and 6349. We are currently trading below this swing's mid point at 6151.

Fresh short position should be created below 6124 with stop loss of 6170. The next major resistance on the higher side will be 6200 and the same can be sold into, with a Stop Loss of 6240.

As mentioned yesterday, I would not advise buying the pull backs, as close below 6000 will make Nifty Future very weak.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options remained almost same at 1.00 as against 1.07 on the previous trading day.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 15.11.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD / NIFTY FUTURE WEEKLY
NIFTY FUTURE:

The week ended on a very bearish note as Nifty Future closed @ 6092, near the low of the week 6074. Following points must be noted:

1. Nifty Future has made a double top near 6349 - hence this level will act as a strong resistance.

2. Nifty Future has erased all the gains made in previous week and saw a weekly range of 273 points ( 6347 High & 6074 Low)

On the daily chart there is a gap to be filled at 6065 and it is likely that there could be a bounce up to 6140 after filling up this gap. All long positions should be held with stop loss of 6140.

Fresh short position may be created around 6140 with stop loss of 6170. On the down side it will find support at 6045 - 5965. Close below 5965 will take it down to strong support at 5850. With 22nd November being a Gann turn date, it will be better to avoid fresh long positions till then. I would consider going long once market takes support around 5750. The last week's fall may be considered as the "beginning of the end" of this phase of the rally and there is a good possibility that we may have just begun the process of forming the right shoulder on the weekly chart - which i have been visualising for the past few weeks.

Although I just returned this morning, i have tried to cover all the regular features (DJIA Chart/TP Grid etc. ) and have also given the Weekly chart which was missed out during the Weekend. Trust this helps.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher,

TURNING POINTS FOR 12.11.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN /NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE:

In today's trading, Nifty Future opened at yesterday's level and managed a high of 6321 in early trades. Thereafter, it maintained a downward bias and saw a sharp fall in the 2nd session to a low of 6209 and closed at 6233.

Please note that 6180 - 6200 range is a good support area. Coupled with that, Friday effect tomorrow may help Nifty Future to bounce back to 6280, hence at lower levels - be cautious of short positions. I have also updated the TP Grid which should be of help.

In case Nifty Future breaks 6180 level, it will find support at 6155 - 6125 and 6100. Unless there are some external events, I don't think 6180 will be broken tomorrow, in view of the multiple supports as indicated above.

As time permitted, I have made a quick and brief post and I hope it will be of help to the readers.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 11.11.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE:

In today's trading, Nifty Future did not open strong as expected. Instead, it ended up trading in a narrow range of just 37 points (High 6332 & Low 6295) and closed at 6308. Thus Nifty Future has remained listless and giving no direction.

In view of the above, I would caution not to become too bearish too early, because we still remain in the bull grip and hence after a few days of sideways movement, Nifty Future may continue the upward march. At this stage, I would like to remind the readers that we have made a new top only in Nifty Future that too due to higher premium over the spot and to mark the festival mood during the muhurat trading. Neither Nifty Spot nor Sensex has been able to achieve this milestone as yet and considering the set up, the possibility of Nifty Future attempting 6400 can not be ruled out.

I would maintain my yesterday's guidance of going long only above 6360 with stop loss of 6330 and target of 6400.

Short position may be taken below 6290 with stop loss of 6340. On the down side it will find support at 6250 and 6200.

What is stated above, may not give you trades (and therefore less excitement/anxiety), but in my view, it will be better to sit on the side lines, when market is in a narrow range.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options remained unchanged at 1.08 as against 1.07 yesterday.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

Note: As I will be out of station starting tomorrow evening, I will not be able to post "TURNING POINTS FOR 12.11.2010" tomorrow and Weekly Turning Points on this Saturday.

Will try my best to post "TURNING POINTS FOR 15.11.2010" by 8.30 a.m. on Monday. Inconvenience caused to the readers, is regretted.

TURNING POINTS FOR 10.11.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE:

After a firm opening, Nifty Future remained weak till the mid session and made a low of 6262. Thereafter, it made a sharp up move to make a high of 6347 and closed firm at 6333 - near the high of the day. Thus, firm opening tomorrow is almost certain.

Tomorrow, one can consider going long above 6360 with a strict stop loss of 6330. On higher side, it will find major resistance at 6400. In the event, Nifty Future does come down after making a top around 6400, one can consider going short once Nifty Future starts trading below 6360 with stop loss just above the day's top. I am indicating bearishness, in view of divergence on the EOD chart. As shown on the 30 min chart the weakness will accelerate only when the trend line is broken.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options decreased to 1.07 as against 1.17 yesterday.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 09.11.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE :

In today's trading, Nifty Future opened steady, but could not sustain at higher levels and made a low of 6282 and remained sideways to close at 6297. Reliance provided the support to Nifty Future from falling too fast. The days close is near the low of the day, suggesting weak opening for tomorrow.

For tomorrow, short positions may be taken with stop loss of 6340. On the lower side, it will find support at 6250 and strong support at 6200. I would continue to suggest that please avoid long positions for now and simultaneously caution that short trades too may be squared off at the support levels.

To those who are following TP Grid, I would like to draw their attention to the significant change in the Mid point level for 52 Weeks and Annual 2010, which today stands increased to 5508. This indicates significant change for the market as and when Nifty Future moves below 5500 level. Incidentally, this level was sometime back referred to as a strong resistance level.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options marginally decreased to 1.17 as against 1.38 on the previous trading day.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes.

Ketan Asher.

Words of Wisdom

All things in life are temporary.

If going well, enjoy it, they will not last forever.

If going wrong, don't worry, they can't last long either.

TURNING POINTS FOR 08.11.2010

NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE:

In Friday's muhurat trading, Nifty Future made a new high at 6349 and closed at 6325. However, BSE Sensex could not achieve similar milestone.

The close near the high of the week does augur well for the market, but with 6400 being a major hurdle as shown on the weekly chart yesterday, I do not see merit in going long at such high levels.

Instead, one can consider going short below 6300 with 6350 as stop loss. On the down side, it will find support at 6280 - 6250 and 6220. Weakness accelerates only below 6200, hence one will have to be quick in taking profits on the short side trades.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options increased to 1.38 as against 1.10 on the previous trading day.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

Words of Wisdom

Do you know why a Car's WINDSHIELD is so large & the Rear view Mirror is so small?

Because our PAST is not as important as our FUTURE.

Look Ahead and Move on.

TURNING POINTS FOR WEEK ENDED 05.11.2010

NIFTY FUTURE WEEKLY
NIFTY FUTURE:

The festive week ended on a strong note with Nifty Future scaling to a new high of 6349 and closed at 6325. Interestingly, for BSE sensex, new high remained elusive, at least for yesterday.

With Reliance showing stregth, it can go up to 1200 and help take Nifty Future to 6400 - which will turn out to be a big resistance area.

With Nifty Future making a new high and Oscillators not being in tandem, divergence on weekly chart is apparent - suggesting lack of strength in the up move, but when money is the main driver for this rally, who really cares for the reasons as long as the market is going up and no body is complaining.

Although Nifty Future has made a new high, I have continued with the likely pattern (shown in Lime Green on the attached chart) as I see it. A few points above previous high is not going to change my view.

Wishing you the very best in the NEW SAMVAT YEAR!

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 5.11.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

WISHING YOU ALL

A VERY HAPPY DIWALI

AND

A PROSPEROUS NEW YEAR.

NIFTY FUTURE:

As anticipated, higher listing of Coal India led to jubilant mood and took Nifty Spot above the previous week's high, though Nifty Future remained short of crossing the previous week's high of 6318.

With US markets trading up we should see a muhurat trading tomorrow, wherein we will cross the previous top of 6336.

The key hurdle now remains is 6400.

More in weekly update by Saturday evening.

Till then, enjoy the good times and enjoy Diwali !

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 04.11.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE:

In today's trading, Nifty Future opened with a gap but remained largely sideways there after. The day's high and low were 6215 and 6176 respectively (39 points range). The EOD candle is a Doji - suggesting indecisiveness. On the other hand Bank Nifty Future made a new 52 week high and closed at higher levels - suggesting strength. On the 30 min chart, I have shown Andrew's Pitchfork in green and the day's low has been made on the median line.

Nifty Future remains high but lacks strength. May be Coal India listing tomorrow may provide the necessary guidance to the market and help decide the direction.

As we are near the higher resistance levels, i would not recommend fresh long positions - though I must add that listing of Coal India at higher premium may definitely help the sentiment - particularly when we are in the celebration mood on account of Diwali.

Short positions may be taken below 6170 with stop loss of 6215. On the lower levels, it will find support at 6150 and 6100 levels.

Considering the narrow range it is best to spend more time on celebrating Diwali and take time off trading - at least till this weekend.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options decreased to 1.03 as against 1.13 yesterday.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

Words of Wisdom

Prayer is not a "spare wheel" that you pull out when in trouble,

but it is a "steering wheel" that directs the right path throughout.

TURNING POINTS FOR 03.11.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE:
In today's trading Nifty Future traded in a narrow range with the day's high of 6174 and the day's low of 6128. On the 30 min chart I have shown a trend line which is acting as resistance for Nifty Future.
For tomorrow, one can consider going long with a stop loss of 6130. On higher side, it will find resistance at 6185 - 6210 and 6250.
Short position should be considered below 6130 with a stop loss of 6160. On the lower side, it will find support at 6100 and 6075.
Put Call Ratio of Index Options marginally increased to 1.13 as against 1.05 yesterday.
Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.
With Best Wishes,
Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 02.11.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE :

In yesterday's trading, Nifty Future saw gap open, followed by a sustained rise to make a high of 6172 and the day's low was 6091. The gains were led by Reliance and bank stocks - particularly ICICI BANK.

We have an important event (RBI meet) lined up for today, that could have impact on Bank stocks. Yesterday Bank Nifty has almost come to the previous level and is close to doing a double top. Expecting bank stocks to continue its sustained rise (post RBI announcements) from the current levels would be a little preposterous, hence the probaility of negative reaction to the policy announcements remains higher. Long positions in Bank Nifty should be trailed with stop loss of 12600.

As regards Nifty Future, considering sharp rise yesterday, it would be better to avoid fresh long positions today. On higher side 6185 would be a hurdle and hence the same too can be used as a stop loss.

One can consider going short when Nifty trades below 6130 level with 6160 as a stop loss. On the down side 6100 and 6065 will provide support.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options increased to 1.05 as against 0.97 on the previous trading day.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher,

Words of Wisdom

Great traders focus on the two things they can always control:

when they play and how much they bet.