TURNING POINTS FOR 01.11.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE:
HISTORY CHECK: OUT OF 10 : 8 times positive close and 2 times negative close for Nov.

As indicated in the weekly post yesterday, it is the Oct monthly candle which is a cause for concern.

In Friday's trading, Nifty Future maintained a negative bias and made a new low of 5966 and in last hour made a sharp recovery to the day's high of 6066 and closed at 6044. The reason for the recovery could be strong support indicated at 5950 and also that day being a weekly/monthly close.

With Reliance results declared after the market hours on Friday, we will see the effect first thing tomorrow and that should set the tone for market direction. Long positions should be taken only above 6075 with stop loss of 6045. On higher side, it will face resistance at 6100 and strong resistance at 6145. While above 6145 it may show strength, and hence it is better not to remain short. However, I would like to caution the readers, that even after reaching 6225 it may fall short of going to the previous top of 6336. Only a close above 6225 we can expect to see Nifty Future making a new top.

As Nifty Future has shown a sharp pull back from the area of support near 5950, it would be better to avoid short trades at lower levels - at least for tomorrow.

Next week is made of Diwali festivities and President Obama's visit - both events being times to celebrate and feel good, and hence market too may end up directionless.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options decreased marginally to 0.97 as against 1.01 on the previous trading day.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

Words of Wisdom

A formula for success in life and finance:

never hold an investment that you would not be willing to purchase afresh today.

TURNING POINTS FOR WEEKENDED 29.10.2010

NIFTY FUTURE WEEKLY

NIFTY FUTURE:

Finally the week and the month both have ended on a weak note. As such, monthly candle is a 'Gravestone Doji' with a long upper shadow - indicating bearishness ahead. On the weekly chart (attached) this weeks' bar is an outside bar suggesting - weakness below this week's low (5966) and strength above this week's high (6180).

At this stage, I would like to remind the readers that we have a top of 6318 in place in 144th week from the all time high of 6336 in Jan 2008 and since then I have been suggesting caution - as 144 is an important Gann no. This gets further confirmed by lower bottoms on the weekly chart. Moreover, I have shown a down sloping line starting from 6318 and the weekly top of 6180 is exactly on this line. Going by the same logic, we need to cross 6145 level to change this view, however one more hurdle of 6190 (0.618 level) would remain to be crossed.

On the down side 5700-5750 can provide a strong support.

In case you share the above view, please keep a tight stop loss on long position, as normally markets find a reason to fall after the technicals have indicated the weakness and I guess that is the whole purpose of looking at markets technically.

I have retained the 'likely formation' of the Right Shoulder of a big Inverse H & S (in Lime Green color), so that readers can get a big picture of how deep the correction could be. While I do not know what reasons will evolve over time to complete this pattern, but I do expect INDIA (or at least the Stock Markets) to shine brighter, once this pattern is completed after some pain.

Get ready to celebrate Diwali next week!

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

Words of Wisdom

Happiness is the profit we harvest from life.

All life's activities should be periodically reviewed for their return on investment.

TURNING POINTS FOR 29.10.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE:

Yesterday the FNO settlement ended amidst lot of volatility, on a downward bias. However, Nov Nifty Future traded at a premium of 70 points leaving hopes of continuation of the up move. The fact that Nifty Future closed below 6000 itself indicates weakness.

Today is an important day, as it is a last day of the weak/month. Any close below 6100 should be considered as the first sign of weakness on the monthly chart. This will confirm my apprehensions of market top in the 144th week (6318) from the previous high of 6336 in Jan 2008.

Though Nifty Future has 0.382 level support at 5950, what is important is the how far the Nifty Future is able to bounce. Further up side should be expected only if Nifty Future manages to go above 6065.

On the down side 5950 will act as a good support.

Yesterday I was able to upload TP Grid for 29.10.2010, but by the time I completed my post, Internet connection gave problems and hence the same could not be uploaded. This brief write-up is written at 9.30 a.m. today (29.10.2010).

Will post regular weekly post tomorrow.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 28.10.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE :

After a weak opening, Nifty Future managed to do a high of 6102 and in the second half of the day became very weak to make day's low of 6005 and closed marginally up at 6038 - virtually on the median line of Andrew's Pitchfork shown in the EOD chart attached herewith. If you observe the EOD chart, you will also find that Nifty Future is not able to cross the red line drawn from the top of 6318. However, this being a descending line, the breakout point is getting to be lower every day and tomorrow it will be at 6100. Reliance continues to remain strong and can spring a surprise - mainly due to FNO settlement scheduled for tomorrow.

While we are very close to the previous low of 5988 and Nifty Future does look very weak, I would advise caution in going short at lower levels as Reliance can provide strength to nifty future for a decent close on the settlement day.

At the time of writing this post, US markets are weak and hence we too may see weak opening. Please note that even if 5988 is broken, we have 5950 (0.382 level) which may provide good support. If Nifty Future takes support at this level, one can consider going long with stop loss of 5925.

In case of stable opening, one can consider going long above 6050 level with stop loss of 6005 level. On higher side, 6080 and 6100 will provide resistance. It is advisable not to remain short above 6135 level .

Put Call Ratio of Index Options increased to 0.99 as against 0.91 on the previous trading day.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 27.10.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE:

In today's trading, Nifty Future had a lackluster trading except for a spike to a high of 6141. The day's low was 6094 and hence technically we have to consider that Nifty Future made a lower top and lower bottom - a sign of weakness. But considering the FNO settlement just 2 days away and looking at the position of the EOD candle on the line shown in the attached chart, I would continue to be hopeful of further up move - with good possibility of Reliance providing the lead.

Accordingly. I would advise going long above 6120 with stop loss of 6090. On higher side it will find resistance at 6155 - 6190 and 6240.

Nifty Future may get weak below 6085 but will find support at 6065, hence short positions are best avoided. Instead it will be better to consider long positions with suitable stop loss.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options remained unchanged at 0.91.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 26.10.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE :

In today's trading, Nifty Future opened firm and went on to make a high of 6180. In the second half it gave up all the gains made in the opening session but closed higher at 6136. With Reliance being firm one can still hope to cross 6200 level in the coming days. Reliance has to cross 1125 to provide the push for Nifty Future to go decisively above 6200.

As Nifty Future continues to make higher bottoms and also made a higher top today - though closing was little weak, I would continue to maintain upward bias. However, as matter of abundant caution, one should consider going long tomorrow above 6155 with stop loss of 6120. On higher side it will face resistance at 6180 and 6210.

I am not suggesting short position, as below 6100 Nifty Future may find support at 6085 - 6060 and 6025. Even if these levels are seen during the day, it would be better to have positive view with suitable stop loss - particularly as we are approaching FNO Settlement on Thursday.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options decreased to 0.91 as against 1.07 on the previous trading day.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 25.10.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE:

In Friday's trading, after a flat opening, Nifty Future remained sideways and then went down to a low of 6058 and closed at 6090. In the opening session, it made a high of 6150 but could not cross the previous day's high of 6152.

Friday's low of 6058 should be considered as higher bottom and any buy trades for tomorrow should be taken with 6055 as stop loss. Next week will be FNO settlement week which could lead to higher volatility.

Considering the weekly candle as discussed in the weekly post, it will be better to consider buy trades for next week with stop loss of 6055. On higher side Nifty Future will find resistance at 6155 and 6200. If it manages to close above 5200, possibility of testing the previous top of 6336 will be very high.

Down side should be considered only below 6055 that too with 6000 giving good support. But considering the weekly candle and the strength in Reliance, it looks unlikely that more down side (i.e. below 6000) will be seen at least till FNO settlement on Thursday.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options increased to 1.07 as against 1.01 on the previous trading day.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR WEEK ENDED 22.10.2010

NIFTY FUTURE WEEKLY

NIFTY FUTURE:

We ended the week where we had started and the weekly range was 178 points - High of 6166 and Low of 5988. Notable feature for the week were:

1. For the first time after making the top of 6318 in the 144th Week from previous top, Nifty Future made lower top and lower bottom which is the sign of weakness.

2. This weeks' candle is a doji - suggesting indecisiveness. Though the fact there is longer lower shadow, one has to keep the possibility of going up next week, remains open - particularly as it will be FNO settlement week.

On the weekly chart you will observe that this weeks' candle has taken support on the Andrew Pitchforks median line and taken a bounce. With Reliance showing strength, Nifty Future making a fresh attempt to go up to 6336 can not be ruled out at this stage. However, to achieve this objective, it will first have to cross major resistance at 6200.

Have a nice weekend!

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

Note: On the attached chart, I have made some notings which look wishful thinking today, but may turn out to be a reality. As it is premature in terms of any indication from the market, I have not referred to the same in the write up above. Take a look and factor this possibility when taking a longer term view.

If you don't wish to spoil your weekend, better to see it on Monday - but you must see it.

TURNING POINTS FOR 22.10.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE :

On the back of strong up move in US markets, Nifty Future opened firm and after initial hesitation, gathered pace by mid session and in the last 30 mins made day's high of 6152 and closed firm at 6135. The move was largely a result of strength displayed by Reliance.

Those following TP Grid would have observed that the day's high of 6152 was on the dot at the mid point of 6153 given under the column Oct 2010.

As we approach key resistance level at 6200 tomorrow, we will know whether we have more upside left or this was just a pull back rally. I would suggest it would be better to go short as Nifty Future approaches 6190 levels with stop loss of 6225. On the down side, it will have support at 6125 and 6090.

In case of weak opening, one can consider buying with stop loss of 6075. On the higher side it will find resistance at 6155 and 6190 levels.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options remained unchanged at 1.01 as against 1.00 yesterday.

Tomorrow's movement may be critical for the market from the weekly candle point of view as well as its reaction near 6200 levels, hence we can expect above average volatility.

In case of close above 6135, we can expect Nifty Future to test the previous high of 6336 next week.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 21.10.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE:

In today' trading, Nifty Future opened weak and remained renebound for better part of the day, but in the last one hour had a sharp down move - the day's high and low were 6077 and 5988 respectively. At the end of the day, Nifty Future closed at 6008. Please see the 30 min chart to get an idea how well Andrew's Pitchfork has given support at today's low and on the EOD chart, Nifty Future has taken support at the median line of the Andrew's Pitchfork. The positive for the day is that inspite of weak US markets, we did not see much downside (though market did remain nervous) and the premium on Nifty Future was restored.

For tomorrow, one can consider long position with 5985 as stop loss. On the higher side it will find resistance at 6080 - 6125 and 6155. On the EOD chart I have shown a red line from the top of 6318 and also indicated that fresh up move is possible only if 6210 level is crossed tomorrow. Till then we should treat any up move as a pull back. Hence please do not wait for a big killing but keep booking profits at any sign of weakness - particularly at the support and resistance levels indicated here. Please not we have only 6 trading days (including tomorrow) to FNO settlement day, hence that pressure will also be felt.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options remained almost unchanged at 1.00 as agianst 1.05 yesterday.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 20.10.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

Thanks to one of the readers - Mr. M.K.Gupta today's TP Grid is much more presentable. Please refer to the pages.
NIFTY FUTURE:

In the morning trade, Nifty Future could not sustain yesterday's sharp momentum and languished with upward bias and managed to make a high of 6166 (as against mid-point level of 6163 for Oct 2010), but then suddenly took an u turn and by end of the day made a low of 6024 and closed at 6044. Though Nifty Future managed to make higher top and higher bottom for the day, the speed with which it gave up the day's gains makes the weakness evident. Notable point for the day's trading was that premium of about 40 points over the spot Nifty, vanished by the end of the day.

For tomorrow, it will be advisable to maintain downward bias and go short with stop loss of 6080. In case of weak opening, one can go short below 6000 with stop loss of 6035. On the down side, Nifty Future will find support @ 5970 and major support at 5950.

At the time of writing, it appears that Dow is getting ready to get out of the Rising Wedge - as shown on the chart which is available on the blog, it will be prudent to be cautious by keeping strict stop loss for long positions (that is if you are still long). In view of the same, I have avoided any suggestion for fresh long positions - though the 5950 level looks attractive.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options increased to 1.05 as against 0.99 yesterday.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 19.10.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

TURNING POINTS GRID WILL NOW BE GIVEN AS A SEPARATE PAGE.
NIFTY FUTURE:

In the early trades, Nifty Future opened weak and maintained downward bias and made a low at 6008 during the 1st hour and after consolidating at the lower levels it gave a sharp up move during the second half of the day to make the days high of 6136 and closed at 6122 - near the high of the day. Notable feature of today's down move was that it managed to fill the gap which it had left on 1st Oct. and 6000 level provided good support.

There is no doubt that the up move was sharp, but I will continue to treat this as a pull back unless it is able to cross 6240 tomorrow - as shown on the EOD chart. Hence it is advisable to tread with caution.

On the higher side, it will find resistance at 6165, 6200 and major resistance at 6240. I would continue to advise going short at higher levels at around 6200 with stop loss of 6240. Please avoid going short at lower levels.

Fresh long position may be created (that is if you have to) above 6130 with stop loss of 6100. As indicated above 6165 - 6200 and 6240 will act as resistance levels.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options remained almost unchanged at 0.99 as against 0.98 yesterday.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 18.10.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

TURNING POINTS GRID FOR 18.10.2010

NIFTY FUTURE BANK NIFTY FUTURE

HIGH LOW MEDIAN HIGH LOW MEDIAN

52 WEEKS 6318 4532 5425 12885 8141 10513
ANNUAL 2010 6318 4667 5493 12885 8141 10513

OCT 2010 6318 6050 6184 12885 12370 12628

W.E. 15.10.2010 6318 6076 6197 12885 12405 12645

NIFTY FUTURE:

Finally, Nifty Future saw a sharp down move on the last 2 days of the week - the move was so sharp, that it wiped out the previous 8 days action. You will observe on the EOD chart, that Nifty Future has closed below the trend line, making it distinctly weak. The close too is near the low of the day, indicating weak opening on Monday. The intriguing part is that despite the sharp down move, Nifty Future continues to trade at a premium of over 25 points. I guess the premium will tend to reduce, once it starts trading below 6065.

On Monday, short positions should be taken when Nifty Future moves below 6065 with stop loss of 6100. Alternatively, in case of a pull back to 6140, one can consider going short with stop loss of 6175. On the down side, it will find support at 6050 and 6000.

Fresh long positions should be considered only when Nifty Future takes support around 5950-5930 levels.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options decreased to 0.98 as against 1.05 on the previous trading day.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR WEEK ENDED 15.10.2010

NIFTY FUTURE WEEKLY CHART
NIFTY FUTURE:

The 144th week from the previous top of 6336 has given its results today. The week saw a new high of 6318 (just short of 18 points from the double top) and low of 6076 - range of 242 points.

On the chart you will observe that last time we saw a sustained rise for 21 weeks and this time around we seem to have topped out in the 20th week. Please compare this week's candle with that of last time when 6336 was formed and you will know what I am hinting at. This week's candle looks like a shooting star - suggesting bearishness but needs confirmation by going below this week's low. Similar situation existed last time too.

On the weekly chart, we can see support at 5935, 5735 and strong support at 5550.

Though these levels look too low today and need confirmation next week - please note that nothing is impossible in this market. As you must have seen in the case of Infosys -which got hammered badly, in spite of declaring good results today.

As usual, I will be giving levels for Monday through regular post by Sunday evening.

Till then enjoy your weekend and Wish you all a Happy Dassera!

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 15.10.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE BANK NIFTY

High Low Median High Low Median

52 Week 6318 4532 5425 12885 8141 10513

2010 6318 4667 5493 12885 8141 10513

Oct 2010 6318 6050 6184 12885 12370 12628

W E 15.10.2010 6318 6083 6200 12885 12423 12654

To enable the readers to implement "Importance of 50% Level........." I will be giving the above information daily. Please rework the median level, if High/Low changes during the day.

Hope many readers will take advantage of this information - to be on the right side of the market. Feedback always welcome.

NIFTY FUTURE:

As expected, Nifty Future opened with a gap to make a new high of 6318, but could not sustain beyond the first 30 min. There after it spent lot of time around 6255 levels and in the last hour broke the level of 6250 and fell sharply to make a low of 6181 and closed the day at 6198. In terms of Candlestick charts, today's candle is known as a 'Dark Cloud Cover" - suggesting bearishness below today' s low.

By the time we start trading tomorrow, we will have Infosys results out and the market action will be guided by the same.

Tomorrow, one can consider going short below, 6170 with a stop loss of 6205. On the down side Nifty Future will find support of trend line at 6140. If this level is broken, we can expect the start of 'healthy correction'. Further down we will have support at 6125 and 6070. Tomorrow is the last day of the week and any close below 6180 should be considered weak signal for the next week. Hope you recall my weekly post wherein I had mentioned that we are in the 144th week from the last top.

It is best to avoid long positions at least till we see 6000 levels.

Please remember, a lot depends on what Infosys delivers tomorrow.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options increased to 1.05 as against 0,96 yesterday.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

PS: Please see the DOW chart. If you allow for yesterday's spike, it remains within the Rising Wedge - a cause for concern.

TURNING POINTS FOR 14.10.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE :

After a stable opening Nifty Future saw a sustained rise through out the day, and crossed the previous high to make a new high at 6281 and closed at 6274 - near the high of the day. The rise was led by Infosys, Relaince, SBI and many front line stocks. With strong US markets, strong opening tomorrow is a forgone conclusion.

Tomorrow, on higher side, Nifty Future will face resistance at 6320, 6360 and major resistance at 6400. Normally, previous top is a good level for the market to take a pause and retrace, but considering the overall bullishness, I will not be surprised if conventional wisdom is kept aside - even if temporarily. Just the way Nifty Future went up today by over 2%, even after lower IIP numbers were declared yesterday. With quarterly results season on, we have to see whether this provides further fuel to the fire or punctures the rally - only time can tell.

Nifty Future will get weak only when it trades below previous high of 6250, and short position should be taken with stop loss of the new high.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options reduced to 0.96 as against 1.04 on the previous trading day.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 13.10.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE :

After subdued opening, Nifty Future maintained downward bias and made a low of 6083. Although it made a new low, it did not lead to much weakness and Nifty Future closed the day @ 6119. Nifty Future continued to trade with a premium of Rs. 25 through out the day - indicating bullishness. This coupled with buying at support levels indicates that bull grip continues.. The day's trading was largely influenced by lower IIP numbers - which has been the first dampening news, in an otherwise care free party.

Considering that Nifty Future is not breaking below 6100 decisively, we can see one more attempt by the bulls to dominate. At higher levels Nifty Future will find resistance at 6140 and 6150 area. There after 6225 will be a major hurdle.

While it may be tempting to go long once Nifty Future crosses above 6150, but it would be advisable to avoid long positions and instead go short at higher levels with strict stop loss of 6250.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options decreased to 1.05 as against yesterday's level of 1.21.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 12.10.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
Pleased to inform you that my article titled "IMPORTANCE of 50% LEVEL......" is published in the current issue of The Educated Analyst - an e-magazine published from Australia. Please visit http://www.educatedanalyst.com/the-educated-analyst/gann-studies
NIFTY FUTURE :

On the back of strong close in US markets, Nifty Future managed to opened with a gap to make the day's high of 6193, but could not sustain the rise and thereafter maintained downward bias to make the day's low of 6137 and closed the day @ 6160 - near the mid point for the day. The highlight for today's trade was strength shown by Reliance and almost 20 points premium in Nifty Future - indicating that the bulls are still in control. Moreover, Nifty Future has made higher top/higher bottom, but remained outside the trend line on the EOD chart.

The way Nifty Future has closed today - it has left the window open to move either side tomorrow - obviously waiting for the cues from the US markets.

In view of the above, I would continue to retain my view that 6225 remains a strong hurdle, as shown on the 30 min chart. Once 6225 is taken out, people having short position should be cautious as short cutting itself may help take Nifty Future to a new high (although I will be worried, what would happen to "Divine Guidance", I have been referring for the past one week).

As advised yesterday, short positions should be taken near 6200 levels with 6225 or 6250 as a strict stop loss. Alternatively, one can go short below 6090 with Stop Loss of 6125. On the down side it will find support at 6070 - 6050 and 6000.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options increased to 1.21 as against 0.94 on the previous trading day.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

PS: In case you have seen the chart of Dow, Rising Wedge pattern under formation remains intact, as long as Dow remains below 11060.

TURNING POINTS FOR 11.10.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE:

In Friday's trading Nifty Future maintained downward bias throughout the day except in the last 30 min. In the early trades, it made a high of 6169 and in the 2nd half it made a low of 6097 and had a quick bounce to close the day and the week at 6133.

Though weekly candle is negative, not much should be read in that, as a week's pause after such a big move is but natural.

With DOW closing firm for the week, we can expect to see a strong opening. Having closed below the Trend Line shown on the EOD chart, Nifty Future should find difficulty in getting back the strength. On higher side it will find resistance at 6175 and major resistance at 6225. If Nifty Future is able to cross 6225, we can expect Nifty Future to make a new high and hence short positions should be suitably protected.

Short positions should be created either below 6090 or at levels below 6225, with strict stop loss of 6250. On the down side, we can see Nifty Future go down up to 6000 levels.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options decreased to 0.94 as against 1.00 on the previous trading day.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

PS: Please spend time to see the Dow Jones chart posted as a seperate page alongside.

TURNING POINTS FOR WEEK ENDED 08.10.2010

NIFTY FUTURE WEEKLY

Pleased to inform you that my article titled "IMPORTANCE of 50% LEVEL......" is published in the current issue of The Educated Analyst - an e-magazine published from Australia. Please visit http://www.educatedanalyst.com/the-educated-analyst/gann-studies

PLEASE CLICK ON "INVESTMENT IDEA" under Pages.

After 5 weeks of sustained up move, Nifty Future closed lower this week. At this juncture we have to consider this as Nifty Future taking a breather. The only top formation idea i can relate to is the "Divine Guidance" referred by me, as a post script in the post dated 4.10.2010.

In case of Bank Nifty, the top seems to be in place as per the Time Price idea that I follow. Moreover, this weeks' close is below the trend line - suggesting weakness. It will get further confirmed, when it starts trading below 12400 next week.

Another important feature for the next week is, that it will be 144th week, from the previous top of 6336. This could make the week quite an eventful one.

We are in a sustained up move for 19th week. Such a long up move had happened even when 2008 Top of 6336 was formed. As shown on the weekly chart, that time we topped out in the 21st week and then had a sharp down move. At this juncture there are no reasons to suggest a sharp down move, but a healthy correction is definitely welcome, as it will make the market stronger.

Major threat to the market should be considered only when market trades below 5550. Till then we have to consider it as a 'healthy correction' and a good buying opportunity - at lower levels.

Another interesting event I see repeating like last time is, that just before the Top was formed, we had a successful mega IPO of R Power (Private Sector) and this time around we have a mega IPO of Coal India (Public Sector). Whether this will also be preceeded/succeeded by a top? Only time can tell.

These similarities remind me of a famous W D Gann quote:

There is nothing new under the SUN, what has happened in the past, will repeat in the future.

While I will be giving turning points in my post for Monday, I can only say that, risk reward ratio for long position is definitely unfavourable at this stage, hence cautious approach will be prudent.

Have a nice week end and enjoy the festival of Navratri - without worrying for the market.

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 08.10.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
Pleased to inform you that my article titled "IMPORTANCE of 50% LEVEL......" is published in the current issue of The Educated Analyst - an e-magazine published from Australia. Please visit http://www.educatedanalyst.com/the-educated-analyst/gann-studies.

NIFTY FUTURE :

In today's trading, Nifty Future opened at yesterday's levels and after side ways movement, made a high of 6230 and in the last one hour had a sharp down move to make a low of 6134 and closed at 6147. In yesterday's post, I had shown a flag like pattern. As Nifty Future could not break out above 6248 - the same did not materialise and the market had a sharp down move.

For tomorrow, the down move will continue below 6130 and will find support at 6100. At this level, Nifty Future may find support and try a bounce. Fall below 6090 may create panic like situation and take Nifty Future to 6025. In my view, buying for a pull back should be considered around 6000 levels.

On the higher side 6165 - 6190 and 6214 will act as resistance levels and should be utilised to short with higher levles given above as a stop loss levels.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options increased to 1.00 as against 0.92 yesterday.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 07.10.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE :
On the back of big gains in US markets, Nifty Future opened strong and made a high of 6243 - just 5 points short of the previous high, and retreated by mid day to a low of 6185 and closed strong at 6214.
Note worthy features of today's trading were:
1. In spite of very good global cues, Nifty Future did not make a new high and continue its upward march. Was this due to the effect of 'Divine Guidance' mentioned by me two days back about the 6248 high? I wish I had a definite answer to this.
2. In the second half of the trading session, Reliance made a smart up move with good volumes and is now poised to lead the market from the front.
3. On the 30 min chart attached, you will find a Flag like formation wherein the breakout is above 6248 and has a target of 6500. All those having short position must take note of this possibility and protect their positions accordingly.
Although the oscillators are quite over stretched, points referred above indicate possibility of the up move continuing further. In the current scenario when money flow is the key driver of the markets any thing seems to be possible.
For tomorrow, on up side one needs to watch 6248 and break above it should be taken advantage of with suitable stop loss. One needs to keep a watch on Reliance for judging the sustainability of the next phase of the up move.
The above possibility gets nullified when Nifty future trades below 6175. The way market has remained in the narrow range for the past three days, Nifty future can hit 6120 - shown on the EOD chart, in no time.
Put Call Ratio of Index Options remained almost unchanged at 0.92 as agianst 0.95 yesterday.
I have tried to illustrate both the likely scenarios and either way there could be strong move, so please do not trade without STOP LOSS.
With Best Wishes,
Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 06.10.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE :

In today's trading Nifty Future opened at yesterday's level and made two attempts to go up but in vain. During the day, Nifty Future made a high of 6225 and low of 6169 and closed at 6183. Though, Nifty Future has made lower top and lower bottom, but the size of the candle being small, and the markets being in firm bull grip, possibility of the up move continuing can not be ruled out at this stage. Moreover, as shown on the 30 min chart, Nifty Future has taken support on the trend line and the same can hold.

For tomorrow, one should consider going short only below 6165 with a stop loss of of 6210. On the down side, Nifty Future will find support at 6125 and trend line support at 6100. Close below 6100 may accentuate the fall. Existing short positoons should be held with strict stop loss of 6215.

Long positions are best avoided.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options remained almost unchanged at 0.95 as against 0.99 yesterday.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 05.10.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE :

In today's trading, Nifty Future opened with a gap and made a high of 6248 in the first hour of trade but there after, remained weak through out the day to make a low of 6175 and closed at 6186. The EOD candle for Nifty Spot and Sensex represent a Shooting Star but not so in case of Nifty Future. The day's close does indicate weakness but considering the bullish strength shown for the past week, one needs to be cautious for short position - at least for tomorrow. I guess, we should have better clarity after tomorrow's trading.

For tomorrow, one can consider going short with stop loss of 6215. On the down side, it will find support at 6150 - 6100 and major support at 6065 (Trend Line shown on the EOD chart).

Put Call Ratio of Index Options decreased to 0.99 as against 1.16 on the previous trading day.

Please do not trade with out STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

PS:

1. How no. 8 dominated the markets today: W D Gann gave lot of importance to No. 8 in the

markets.

Today' s date : 04.10.2010 totals to 8. 88 X 71 (total 8) = 6248 Day's High

(Disclaimer: Please note that I am just a keen student of the market - nothing more than

that.) In the past too such coincidences have played important part in major tops and

bottoms. I would just treat this as "Divine Guidance". If you believe in these things, please protect your long positions with extra care.

Under no circumstances, this should be treated as a trading signal.

2. Dow Jones Industrial Average:

At the time of writing this post, Dow is trading minus 100 points and on the EOD chart it has come out of the Rising Wedge, which should be considered quite bearish.