TURNING POINTS FOR 01.09.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
CRITICAL LEVELS:
LEVEL 1: 5400, LEVEL 2: 5225 & LEVEL 3: 5100
NIFTY FUTURE:

In today's trading, Nifty Future opened weak and continued to drift lower in the 1st half of the trading session to make a low of 5356. In the 2nd half, Nifty Future did make a sharp up move and a new high of 5414 and closed at 5404 - near the high of the day. The pattern of making lower top/ lower bottom continued for the day. For the 1st time, Nifty Future has closed outside the channel on EOD chart.

As expected, on the monthly chart, Nifty Future has made a Shooting Star - indicating bearishness below today's low of 5356. However, the EOD candle has a long lower shadow indicating that today's support may hold for a day or so.

I would continue to suggest - avoid long positions and go short at higher levels. For tomorrow, Nifty Future may go up to channel low of 5450. Any rise up to this level may offer good opportunity to go short with strict stop loss of 5485.

Shooting Star candle on the Monthly chart, Engulfing bearish candle on the weekly chart and closing outside the lower level of the channel on the EOD chart does not augur well for the coming days/weeks.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options marginally decreased to 1.15 as against 1.19 yesterday.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 31.08.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
CRITICAL LEVELS:
LEVEL 1: 5400, LEVEL 2: 5225 & LEVEL 3: 5100

NIFTY FUTURE :

On the back of positive close in the World markets, Nifty Future opened firm but could not sustain at higher levels. In the early trades, it made a high of 5465 and in the 2nd half of the day it broke the previous day's low to make a lower low at 5391. In a surpires move it showed sharp recovery in the last 30 min and closed higher at 5426. While the lower shadow in the EOD candle may give some hope for bullishness tomorrow, the oscillators do not confirm the same. This type of support can be expected till Nifty Future goes below 5350. All said, we have continued the process of forming lower top/lower bottom on the EOD chart for Nifty Future as well as in Nifty Spot where Nifty broke the previous low by only about 2 points before it bounced back.

It is pertinent to note the current fall is without any negative news for the market and hence optimism creeps in at lower levels. Secondly, on the weekly chart 5398 is the immediately preceding weekly top - break of which will indicate a major bearish signal. Tomorrow is the last day of the month, and this will provide monthly candle and help us to get better guidance from the monthly chart. Close near to 5400 will indicate bearish candle - Shooting Star, for the month.

For tomorrow, I would continue to suggest - avoid long positions. On higher side, Nifty Future will find resistance at 5455 and 5485 and this area may provide good opportunity to go short with strict stop loss of 5500.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options decreased to 1.19 as against 1.31 on the previous day,

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 30.08.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
CRITICAL LEVELS:
LEVEL 1: 5400, LEVEL 2: 5225, LEVEL 3: 5100
NIFTY FUTURE :

In Friday's trading, Nifty Future had to contend with the high of 5490 in the early trades. In the second half it maintained downward bias and went down to make a weekly low of 5398. It closed at 5416 - near the low of the day. Nifty Future took support at the lower channel - first critical level that was being mentioned for some days now. The oscillators on the EOD chart have now confirmed the bearishness.

Even Bank Nifty fell to the low of 10700 and closed at 10742 - near the low of the day.

As is being mentioned for sometime now, market needs to correct and I feel Friday's move has given the first confirmation of the same.

Tomorrow, we may see some bounce considering the channel support. However, I would not advise going long at this stage, This bounce may take Nifty Future to 5455 or 5470. At this level, it will be better to go short, with stop loss of 5500. Nifty Future has to cross 5500 to regain strength - which looks difficult considering the sharpness of the fall during the second half of the Friday.

On the down side, 5380 and 5350 may provide minor support but eventually market has to seek lower levels in the coming days. Nifty Future may find good support at 5225-5250.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options has increased to 1.31 as against 1.11 on the previous trading day.

If you feel that channel break on the down side could eventually take the market down to much lower levels - just to remind you of the big gap left on the day after the election results, it is still not too late to sell on delivery basis so that buying can be done at the lower levels. Just think about it and act accordingly. Tuesday we will have guidance on the monthly candle too and this should help you further to take this decision. Even assuming that market will gyrate between the bigger channel formed on the Weekly chart, the lower level of the channel is near 5000 - a good 400 points below the current level. Taking a bearish view below this level may be fine, but I am not sure how prudent it will be.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

INFOSYS & TCS FUTURE WEEKLY 27.08.2010

TCS FUTURE WEEKLY / INFOSYS SPOT WEEKLY

I have given my comments on the charts itself.

Inofsys chart is more of a follow-up. I have also added TCS chart as similar situation is developing albeit slowly.

Please note that my blog is meant for educational purpose only. Hence, it is in your interest to make your own due deligence if you decide to act on the same.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

NOTE : PLEASE SEE THE FOLLOWING POST FOR WEEKLY TURNING POINTS FOR NIFTY FUTURE .

WEEKLY TURNING POINTS 27.08.2010

NIFTY FUTURE WEEKLY

NIFTY FUTURE :

As anticipated the week has ended with a engulfing bearish candle for Nifty Future as well as for Bank Nifty. This should be taken as the first confirmation of the much awaited (by me) correction ahead. We will have second confirmation by the end of Tuesday's trading as it will be the last trading day for the month. If the close is anywhere near today's levels, we should be ready for a Shooting Star Candle on the monthly chart - which will reconfirm the bearish signal given by the weekly candle.

On the attached chart you will observe that I have drawn Andrew's Pitchfork (in orange color) which has acted as a resistance level for two weeks. All is not yet lost as we have not broken even the previous week's low. This week's low at 5398 is at the high made in the week ended 9th April 2010. Moreover, as can be seen on the chart, we have closed below the trend line starting from the low of 4786.

On the down side, once the 5350 level is broken, we have major support at 5225-5250 range.

The regular readers will recall that, in the critical levels mentioned in my post, I have been giving the level of 5400 for some days now. This level is achieved today and market can take support at least once at these critical levels.

Today's weekly chart gives the first indication of weakness in the coming days. Hence it would be advisable to plan your trading/investment strategies accordingly.

I will post the TURNING POINTS for 30.8.2010 by Sunday evening.

Have a nice weekend!

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 27.08.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

CRITICAL LEVELS:

LEVEL 1: 5400, LEVEL 2: 5225 & LEVEL 3: 5100

NIFTY FUTURE :

In today's trading Nifty future continued its bearish trend and made a high of 5494 and low 5456. In the process, for the 3rd day, it has made a lower top and lower bottom. Though it is still holding the 5450 support, the close for the day is weak.

For tomorrow, Nifty Future may bounce from the support of 5450. If this happens, Nifty Future may go up to 5500-5510 at which level it will face resistance. One can consider going short at this level with stop loss at 5530.

Secondly, tomorrow being a weekly close, the weekly candle will provide guidance for the coming week. Any close below 5450 or thereabouts should be the first signal for the impending bearishness to set in. I will be reviewing the weekly position tomorrow evening or Saturday morning as per the practise started two weeks back.

In view of the above, I do not advise fresh long positions.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options decreased to 1.11 as against 1.29 on the previous day.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 26.08.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
CRITICAL LEVELS:

LEVEL 1: 5400, LEVEL 2: 5225, LEVEL 3: 5100
NIFTY FUTURE :
On the back of weak World markets, Nifty Future opened weak and made a low of 5465 and made an attempt to go up but could not go beyond 5488. In the last hour, it gave up all the intra day gains and made a low for the day @ 5461 and closed at 5470. You will observe on the EOD chart that Nifty Future has taken support at a small trend line.

For tomorrow, we have support at 5450 and 5420. If 5400 is broken, market may become very weak.

If the support of 5450 is not broken, we may see a pull back, in view of FNO settlement as Nifty Future may try to close above 5500. However, on the way up, we have resistance at 5480 and 5510. Above 5510, we may see some strength and will face resistance at 5530. The strength may be possible as Bank stocks remain strong. However, Reliance continues to be weak and does not provide any support to Nifty Future. In view of FNO settlement volatility may increase and hence it is better to be light on trades.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options decreased to 1.29 as against 1.40 on the previous trading day.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 25.08.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
CRITICAL LEVELS:
LEVEL 1: 5400, LEVEL 2: 5225, LEVEL 3: 5100

NIFTY FUTURE:
In today’s trading Nifty Future opened at previous day’s level, but could not sustain at the day’s high of 5540. From the start of the day, it continued to trade lower and made intra day bottom of 5480 and then bounced back to close at 5510. While making today’s low, Nifty Future has taken support at the previous resistance level and the EOD candle has good lower shadow – suggesting possibility of the up move continuing. Thus, one should not get very bearish – at least till completion of FNO expiry on Thursday or till Nifty Future trades below 5480 for a while.
I continue to advise caution on the long positions and would consider it prudent to sell delivery based items, particularly in B group which have seen good improvement in valuation over the past 2-3 weeks.
For tomorrow, short position may be taken with stop loss of 5545. However, above 5530 Nifty Future may show renewed strength to make a new high. If helped by Reliance i.e if it trades above 1000, the task will become that much easier. One can take the Nifty Future trades with this perspective, as the volatility may be higher in view of the FNO settlement this Thursday.
Put Call Ratio of Index Options decreased to 1.40 as against 1.62 on the previous trading day.
Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.
With Best Wishes,
Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 24.08.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

CRITICAL LEVELS:

LEVEL 1: 5400, LEVEL 2: 5225 & LEVEL 3: 5100.

NIFTY FUTURE:

It remained one more day of narrow range (28 points, with High of 5543 and low of 5515) trading with not much happening. The close for the day being near the high of the day it gives the impression that we may go up to the upper end of the channel -5600, shown on the EOD chart although my target of 5545 is almost achieved.

As I continue to believe that 5600 - the upper channel may act as resistance, I do not advise fresh long position at higher levels. Existing long position may be trailed with stop loss of 5475.

Short position may be taken below 5500 with stop loss of 5545. On the down side it will find support at 5455 and 5420. Though I feel that market may come down to correct, particularly as World markets are trading weak, please do not sell unless the levels given here are broken on the downside, as Nifty Future may continue to hold in view of the FNO settlement on Thursday. Moreover, we have yet to find support from Reliance which has been under performing the Nifty Future.

Put Call Ratio of Index options significantly increased to 1.62 as against 1.33 on the previous trading day.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 23.08.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
CRITICAL LEVELS:
LEVEL 1: 5350, LEVEL 2: 5225, LEVEL 3: 5100

NIFTY FUTURE:

In Friday's trading Nifty Future maintained narrow range of 30 points. In the current series it made a top of 5537 where as in the Sept series it made a top of 5544. You will find on the chart that I have marked 64, as Monday will be the 64th trading day from the previous bottom of 4786. Whether the market will reverse? Stay tuned to the market.

As mentioned in my weekly post, market has closed on strong note on Friday and shows potential to go up to the channel high of 5600. But considering the weakness in World markets and the coincidence of such turn dates along with small increase in Nifty Future, I am not inclined to suggest fresh long positions at higher levels. However, those willing to bet on the long side will do well to keep a Stop Loss of 5400.

One can go short below 5500 with stop loss of 5545. On the down side it will find support at 5450 and 5420. As indicated in the EOD chart, weakness will accelerate if it breaks the channel on the down side at 5400.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options remained unchanged at 1.33.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

NIFTY FUTURE WEEKLY TURNING POINTS 20.08.2010

NIFTY FUTURE WEEKLY

The weekly chart has ended in a very positive way - biggest gain over the previous five weeks and close near the high of the week. This gives an impression that rally can continue - though it can, I have a different view. Readers are requested to refer the chart and see the notings on it. In the daily chart for Monday, I will post the same figures and let the market decide if the magic is going to work this time too.

Secondly, I have also drawn an Andrew's Pitchfork, which indicates that weekly price bar will be out of the Pitchfork once it is below 5350. On the daily chart, the lower level of the channel indicates that below 5400 will be bad. Both these figures are not too far from where we are today, if we are to get the contagious effect of the world markets.

In my daily post, I have been putting a level of 5545 as a strong resistance. In today's trading, Nifty Future Sept series did a high of 5544 - almost achieved the level, where as in the current series once again we managed a new high by only 3 points.

While the objective of my indicating bearish view for past one week or so, is just to caution the readers that at higher levels if one has sold, one can always buy at lower levels.

I am sure the weekly as well as Monthly candle next week will guide us if the market top is in place. In any case, we are near the upper end of the channel on the daily chart.

I would say that monthly candle will look bad, if the close by 31st Aug. is anywhere below 5350, and this will help to confirm my bearish view.

Have a nice weekend.

Ketan Asher.

Words of Wisdom

In life as in markets, chance truly favors those who are prepared to benefit.

Failing to plan, truly is planning to fail.

TURNING POINTS FOR 20.08.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

CRITICAL LEVELS:
LEVEL 1; 5400, LEVEL 2: 5225, LEVEL 3: 4935
NIFTY FUTURE :

On the back of yesterday's break out, Nifty Future opened firm and after making intra-day low of 5498 and there after made day's high at 5534. We are now close to the level of 5545 which in my opinion is a strong resistance level. Even if we temporarily manage to breach it, @ 5600 level we have upper channel line which can act as resistance.

Considering the US markets at the time of writing this post, I am reminded of similar situation when we made all time high (6336) in Jan 2008. While we were making new high, US markets were already on their way down and we followed after sometime. Will the history repeat ? Just a point to ponder over - particularly if you are very bullish.

I continue to advise caution, as I do not think the disconnect with Global market can last for long. It will be better to sell at higher levels - I mean delivery based selling. Needless to repeat, that fresh buying may best be avoided considering the strong resistance at 5545 and 5600.

Short selling may be considered below 5445, with stop loss of 5470. On the down side, it will find support at 5400. As shown on the EOD chart, the fall will accelerate below 5400.

Readers are requested to see the EOD chart also for the Avg Speed at which Nifty Future has been going up for the past ten months - this my further confirm reason for my cautious approach.

Considering the Put Call Ratio of Index Options at 1.33 as against 1.26 yesterday, it seems participants are sceptical about the sustainbility of New Highs being made!

What ever may be your view, please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

WORDS OF WISDOM

Expect Nothing, be prepared for everything.

TURNING POINTS FOR 19.08.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

CRITICAL LEVELS:

LEVEL 1: 5400, LEVEL 2: 5225, LEVEL 3: 4800

NIFTY FUTURE:

In today's trading Nifty future opened near yesterday's level and for the better part of the day remained choppy and traded at discount to the spot. In the last one hour, once it moved above 5450 it had a Sharp up move - In my view mainly due to short covering and discount turning to premium. It is pertinent to note that today, Nifty Future made a new high - 5494, but Nifty spot (5488) did not make a new high.

In this context, I would like to draw your attention, that on 9th Aug (when previous top was made) Nifty Spot made 5492 where as Nifty Future remained at 5489.
Though we have made a new high today, I would continue to remain cautious as we have trend line as a hurdle at 5514. Moreover, level of 5545 referred by me till last week, can also be a major hurdle. In light of the above, I would not advise long position at higher levels. Moreover, we are close to the upper end of the channel which is at about 5600. At higher levels, I would take the opportunity to sell on delivery basis and be liquid to take advantage of buying on steep corrections. To sum up, at higher levels Nifty Future will find resistance at 5515 - 5545 and 5570.

Short positions may be taken below 5440 with stop loss of 5460. On down side 5400 - 5365 and 5320 will provide support.

Put Call Ratio of Nifty Future remained marginally lower at 1.26 as against 1.36 on the previous day.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 18.08.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
CRITICAL LEVELS:
LEVEL 1 : 5365, LEVEL 2: 5225, LEVEL 3: 4800
NIFTY FUTURE :

Today was one more day when Nifty Future moved in a narrow range of 34 points - High of 5444 & Low of 5410. It ended the day as doji indicating indecisiveness. On the 30 min chart, I have drawn Andrew's Pitchfork from two different points as they are providing support and on many occasions. Another important point I would like to highlight here is that today Reliance has taken support at its 200 DMA which should be considered as a good level of support, and as suggested many times in the past few days, this is one stock which has been under performing Nifty and may spring a surprise any time, which could help Nifty Future to move up.

For tomorrow, while I would not advise long positions, considering the Resistance Nifty Future has been facing at higher levels.

Fresh short position may be taken only below 5400 as suggested for today. However, considering the above possibility stop loss for short position should be kept at 5460.

On down side, Nifty Future will find support at 5365, and 5315.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options almost remain unchanged at 1.36 as against 1.35 yesterday.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 17.08.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
CRITICAL LEVELS:

LEVEL 1: 5365, LEVEL 2: 5225, LEVEL 3: 4800
NIFTY FUTURE :

In the early trading, Nifty Future made a high of 5474 and met with resistance. Thereafter it continued to make lower tops/lower bottoms on the the 30 min chart (though marginally) and in the second half, fell sharply to make a low of 5393. On the EOD chart, it has made a lower top/lower bottom. The fall will accelerate once Nifty Future closes below 5350 - low held for 5 weeks. In such an event, it would be below the median level of the Andrew's Pitchfork shown in Red colour on the EOD chart. Once the fall precipitates below 5350, we can compare the current phase of Nifty Future to a car which has wide turning radius and hence rquiring more space and time.

For tomorrow, I would continue to suggest that avoid going long as Nifty Future has encountered resistance at 5480 levels on 30 min chart for nearly 6 times.

Short position may be taken below 5400 levels, with stop loss of 5455. At lower levels, Nifty Future will find support at 5365 and 5325. At 5325 level, it may consider a bounce, in view of support of Andrew's Pitchfork - shown in magenta colour and 25% retracement level on the EOD chart. On the EOD chart MACD (4) & RSI (52) are weak, and once they go below zero and 50 respectively, the weakness will accelerate.

Put Call Ratio of Index options increased to 1.35 as against 1.14 on the previous trading day.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

INFOSYS SPOT WEEKLY 15.08.2010

INFOSYS SPOT WEEKLY

To ensure that I convey what needs to, I have made my short notings on the chart itself. This will save my time as well as the readers. By adding this post on individaul scrips, just trying to make your visit more fruitful and my blog more meaningful. Please note it will be restricted to weekly charts, during the weekends.

Disclaimer:

Please note that my blog is for educational purposes only. In case the reader acts on my comments, he should do so entirely at his risk and consequences.

For regular update on TURNING POINTS FOR 16.08.2010 and Weekly Turning Points please refer the following posts.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 16.08.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

To read weekly review and the chart, please refer to the post below. Henceforth, it would be my endeavour to post a weekly Nifty Future chart with brief commentary latest by Saturday evening. Trust this helps the readers.
CRITICAL LEVELS:
LEVEL 1: 5365, LEVEL 2: 5225, LEVEL 3: 4800

NIFTY FUTURE:

On Friday, Nifty Future continued its up move and found resistance at the Trend Line as anticipated. You will observe on the 30 min chart, that 5480 level has acted as resistance on 5 occasions. It definitely indicates that this region is a strong resistance level which Nifty Future is not able to cross. As we remain outside of the Rising Wedge, my view continues to remain cautious/bearish - even at the risk of being proved wrong, should Reliance go above 1000. On the higher side, we have to contend with resistance at 5515 and major resistance at 5545. Please refer to the Pitchfork drawn on the EOD chart to find why we got support at 5363 last week.

For tomorrow, I would not advise fresh long position at higher levels.

Short position should be taken only below 5420 with stop loss of 5450. On downside it will find support at 5365 (we may not be second time lucky) - 5315 and 5225.

I would like to mention here that Bank Nifty is close to its previous top of 10806. This being a double top is a good signal for it to correct. The reasons for correction always develop little after these technical events take place. Hence this remark of caution, so that at first signal one can jump to safety.

Put Call Ratio of Index Option remained almost flat at 1.14 as against 1.11 on the previous trading day.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

WEEKLY TURNING POINTS

NIFTY FUTURE WEEKLY

With effect from this week, I will post a weekly chart with a brief write up, hopefully every weekend - Friday/Saturday evening, so that we do not forget the bigger picture.

Trust, this will be helpful to the readers.

Nifty Future Weekly:

Since the mid week, I had drawn a Rising Wedge on the daily chart and when the same was broken the fall was sharp. However, due to better than expected results of SBI, it has seen a rise of almost 10% and has been the major factor in improving the Nifty from the support of 5365.

I have attached a Weekly Chart of Nifty Future and find that similar Rising Wedge formation taking place in the weekly chart too. At lower level the breakout comes at 5225 and the Rising Wedge formation will fail if Nifty Future has to go above 5585 level in the next week.

While looking at the close and the weekly candle possibility of Nifty Future going up can not be ruled out. But we still have strong resistance at 5545. Hence, I believe, we may not be able to cross 5585 and instead move and break the lower level of 5225 in the coming weeks.

In this context, I must draw your attention that Reliance has broken out of the triangle on the down side and hence I the downward bias may continue. However, should Reliance manage to get strength (i.e. stay above 1000), than we may break the 5585 level and the Rising Wedge patter will fail.

Another point worth noting is that Bank Nifty is very close to the previous high of 10800 - it made a high of 10758 today. Generally, the previous level acts as a strong resistance level and we may see Bank stock tiring in the next week.

We have taken support at 5365 during the week. Second time it may break that and we may go towards the second support level of 5225. While it may be little early to press the panic button on the market, it is better to keep these things in perspective so that if the situation arises, we can take adequate precaution.

Have a nice weekend.

Regards,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 13.08.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

CRITICAL LEVELS
LEVEL 1: 5365, LEVEL 2: 5225 & LEVEL 3; 4800
NIFTY FUTURE :

As a result of breaking outside the Rising Wedge yesterday and the fact that US markets closed weak, Nifty Future opened with a gap and made a low of 5363 (very near to the critical level of 5365 mentioned for some time now) in the opening session. On the back of SBI making a new 52 week high after the declaration of result, Nifty Future managed to fill the gap made in the opening session and made a high of 5432 and closed at 5420.

Inspite of sharp pull back during the day and closing as a bullish candle, one should not give much credence to this, as breadth of the market remained negative and Nifty Future continued to make one more lower bottom/lower top for the day.

For tomorrow. I would not advise long positions.

One can continue the short position with stop loss of 5450. In case market is able to cross this level, Nifty Future can come up to 5490 level to test the trend line and once again turn down after making a double top. I would give very low probability for this to happen.

On the down side, it will find support at 5365 and if this level is broken, it will go down to 5300.
Put Call Ratio of Index Options almost remained unchanged to 1.11 as against 1.12 yesterday.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 12.08.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
CRITICAL LEVELS:
LEVEL 1: 5365, LEVEL 2:5225 & LEVEL 3:4800
NIFTY FUTURE :

After opening weak Nifty Future could go up to make a high of 5468 and there after maintained a downward bias and in the last one hour made a low of 5404 and closed at 5412. Main feature of today's fall is that it has broken out of the Rising Wedge being shown on the EOD chart. What this means is that we will have a sharp & swift correction.

At the time of writing, Dow is down 225 points and hence a good possibility of a gap down opening. Today's fall is also a good lesson (in real-time) for those learning TA as this is a typical pattern happening on the right side of the chart - unlike the left side of the chart used for classroom purposes. Incidentally, this will be accompanied with pain, in case you have open long positions.

In case of gap down opening, it is best not to do anything. In case market gives an opportunity, one can go short with stop loss of 5425. On the down side, break of 5390 will take it to 5365 and 5300. it may get support at this level but advisable not to try bottom fishing so early. In case of sharp bounce, it can come up to 5365, where one can go short.
Put Call Ratio of Index Options remained at 1.12 as against 1.22 yesterday.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes.

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 11.08.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

CRITICAL LEVELS:

LEVEL 1: 5365, LEVEL 2: 5225 AND LEVEL 3: 4800

NIFTY FUTURE:

Though Nifty Future closed yesterday near the high of the day, it opened weaker this morning and make a high of 5475 and after the mid session remained weak to make a low of 5440. Thereafter, it once again made an attempt to go up to close at 5461. In today's trading Nifty Future did break the Trend Line drawn on the EOD chart, but has closed above it, this still leaving hopes for the bulls. Today's price action did confirm my belief that though Nifty Future is making new tops, it is not able to sustain at higher levels and hence my suggestion of not going long at higher levels.

While today, Nifty future has taken support on the Trend Line, we must factor that weakness in Reliance continues to make lower bottom / lower top. We now have to contend with likely weakness in Infosys once it breaks the trend line on the down side at 2800 - in view of all the wrong news coming from USA about Indian IT Cos. Weakness in these two heavy weights is bound to have negative effect on Nifty Future.

Accordingly, I would not advise fresh long position and those having existing long positions must have a tight stop loss of 5440.

Short position may be taken below 5440 with stop loss of 5475. On lower side, it will find support at 5420 - 5400 and 5365.

Put Call Ratio of Index options continues to increase and at the close of the day it was 1.22 as against 1.16 yesterday.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 10.08.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE :

In the opening session, Nifty Future opened steady and remained above5445 level after making a low of the day at 5437. There after Nifty maintained higher top for the remainder for the day. As such, in the last hour it made a new high at 5489 - once again just 6 points above the previous high. To me this looks more like half hearted effort to make a new high, mainly supported by short covering. Important point to note today is that Nifty Future has closed near the high of the day at 5482, unlike previous highs where Nifty closed lower by the end of day. Needless to say that this suggests strength.

I would request the readers to see the EOD chart wherein I have drawn a Rising Wedge under formation. This formation will fail if Nifty Future moves above 5535 - upper line of the wedge. Secondly, I have also highlighted a trend line which appears to me very close to 45 Deg. and break of this trend line could start the down move.

For tomorrow, existing long positions may be trailed with stop loss of 5460 and though I do not suggest fresh long positions, if one has to take it, the same may be protected with stop loss of 5460. On higher side, it will face resistance at 5515 and 5545.

Short positions may be taken below 5440 with stop loss of 5475.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options increased to 1.16 as against 1.04 on the previous trading day.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 09.08.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE :

On Friday, Nifty Future opened weak, but made a failed attempt to cross the previous high and after mid session had sharp pull back after making a high of 5475 and closed the weak positive @ 5442. On daily chart, it has started making lower bottom lower top - which is a bearish signal. The main cause for this, may be assigned to weakness in Reliance. It has to now trade above 1030 to gain strength. You will observe on the attached 30 min chart that market has retraced 4 times from 5475 to 5485 levels. Further up move seems possible only if Reliance takes support around 1000 levels and gains strength above 1030.

For today one can go short in the opening session with stop loss of 5465. Considering the trend line and 25% retracement level @ 5412 on the EOD chart, short position must be covered. While the possibility of Nifty Future making a high of 5545 is reducing, at this stage it can not be said that the same is ruled out as yet. In case if Nifty Future takes support around 5400 and moves above 5420, one can consider going long with a strict stop loss of 5395. For simplicity, I would say that Nifty Future should be considered weak below 5450 and strong above this level, assuming no new low levels are made.

Weakness in the market will accelerate below 5365.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options reduced to 1.04 as against 1.17 on the previous trading day.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 06.08.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
CRITICAL LEVELS:
LEVEL 1: 5365, LEVEL 2: 5225 and LEVEL 3: 4800

NIFTY FUTURE:

In the opening trades, Nifty Future made a new top at 5480 - just 4 points higher than previous top of 5476. There after, it maintained downward bias till mid session and once again made a new high of 5483, but could not sustain at higher levels and closed the day at 5458 - almost near the close for the previous day. Interesting part of the rise after mid session was that, though Nifty Future made a new high, Nifty spot had to contend with the high made in the opening session. This happened as the discount in Nifty Future in the first half got changed to premium over the spot - this normally happens when short positions are cut by the participants. In the last one hour, Nifty Future made a low of 5453 and closed at 5458.

Though it is too early to call a high, the day's price action does call for a cautious view at higher levels. Accordingly, I would not advise fresh long positions at higher levels. Existing long positions should be trailed with stop loss of 5440.

Short positions may be taken below 5440 with strict stop loss of 5465. At lower levels, it will find support at 5420 - 5400 and 5365. Close below 5365 should be considered bearish as tomorrow is also the last day of the week.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options increased to 1.17 as against 1.06 on the previous day.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

Words of Wisdom

The worst decisions, in life and markets, come from extremes: overconfidence and a lack of confidence.

TURNING POINTS FOR 05.08.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
CRITICAL LEVELS:
Level 1: 5365, Level 2: 5225, Level 3: 4800

NIFTY FUTURE :

After opening firm, Nifty Future remained range bound and volatile thriugh the day. In the last one hour Nifty Future made a strong up move (with support from Bank & IT stocks) to make a high of 5472 and closed at 5460. While Nifty remains in strong up move above 5400, the real test should be tomorrow as it approaches the trend line (shown in the EOD chart) to test it and can go up to 5515 which is also a strong resistance level. This coupled with tomorrow being a Gann turn date (next one is now on 22nd Sept.) should be watched with interest.

In light of the above, I would advise caution at higher levels, even if Nifty breaks the previous high of 5476. Immediately above 5515 we have 5545 is also a strong resistance level. Accordingly, I would not advise fresh long positions at higher levels and existing long positions should be trailed with a stop loss of 5420. In spite of Nifty Future being in up move for the past few days, Reliance continues to remain subdued.

While it may not be prudent to go short at higher levels when Nifty Future is showing strength, as a contrarian view one can consider buying 5200 puts as Nifty Future approaches 5500 levels.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options decreased marginally to 1.06 as against 1.19 yesterday.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.