TURNING POINTS FOR 01.07.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD / NIFTY FUTURE QUARTERLY
NIFTY FUTURE :

In sympathy with US markets, Nifty Future too opened with down side gap and made a low of 5225, but quickly moved above yesterday's low and maintained steady up move during the first half of the day and at 5299 found trend line resistance and sharply corrected about 30 points and as European markets were steady, once again started moving up to make a day's high of 5323 and closed near high of the day at 5316.

you will recall my yesterday's post wherein I had anticipated such a move by giving the rationale, that today is a monthly/quarterly close. In hindsight, it seems the argument had some merit. I have attached a Quarterly chart to give a broader perspective, wherein you will observe that for the past three quarters there has been consistent buying at lower levels and market is poised to break out of the 5400 hurdle in the coming days. When that will happen may be difficult to predict (may be once out of the ellipse ?), but the quarterly chart definitely indicates strength.

Though the quarterly chart looks very exciting, I would like to caution that till such time we see close above 5420, we need to be prepared for down side - which as per the same quarterly chart can come up to 4825 (Trend line joining the lows of 3 quarters). Please do remember that it will take 3 more months to form the next candle.

Tomorrow, fresh long position should be taken only above 5335 with stop loss of 5290. On higher side, it will find resistance at 5365 and major hurdle at 5420.

Short position should be taken only below 5265 with stop loss of 5300. On down side, it will find support at 5220 and 5165.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options decreased to 1.06 as against 1.11 yesterday.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 30.06.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE :

In today's opening session, the strength displayed in yesterday's closing session was absent. Right through the day, Nifty Future made lower top and lower bottom on 30 min chart, except in last one hour when there was a small pull back. Nifty Future made a low of 5240 and closed 5266.

Tomorrow, short position should be taken with 5300 as Stop Loss. On lower levels it will find support at 5210 and strong support at 5155. Considering weakness in US markets we may also have weak opening, but considering that its the last day of the month we may have a smart pull back as well.

Buying should be considered at lower levels of 5175 or there about with stop loss of 5150.

As can be observed on the EOD chart, we continue to remain within the ellipse being shown for some days now. Those who have sold at higher levels, will get good opportunity to buy at lower levels, which can be commenced around 5100 levels.

Interestingly, put call ratio of index options decreased to 1.11 as against 1.26 yesterday.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 29.06.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE :

At the outset, my apologies for not being able to post TURNING POINTS FOR 28.06.2010.

In today's trading Nifty Future opened steady and remained sideways during the first half. In the last two hours Nifty Future made a high of 5345 and closed at 5340.

Tomorrow, long positions may be taken up with stop loss of 5290. On higher side, it will find resistance at 5370 - cusp of the ellipse shown on the EOD chart and 5420 - Median line of Andrew's Pitchfork shown on 30 min chart. With Reliance closing firmly above MTP of 1087, there is a good possibility of it providing the leadership to the market.

Short position may be considered only below 5290 with stop loss of 5325. At lower levels, it will find support at 5220 and 5200.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options remained almost unchanged at 1.26 as against 1.29 in the previous day's trading.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 25.06.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE :

In today's trading Nifty Future opened steady and made a high of 5353 but as European markets opened weak, in the second half Nifty Future went down to make a low of 5287 and closed at 5321. Reliance continued to remain weak and closed near the low of the day. Reliance below 1020 can accelerate weakness in the market.

For tomorrow, short position may be taken below 5300 with stop loss of 5335. At lower levels, Nifty Future will find support at 5250 as shown on the 30 min chart. If Nifty future trades below 5250, it can go down to 5150 in the coming days where it should find strong support.

Fresh long positions, should be taken only above 5350. On higher side it will find resistance at 5375 and 5420.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options remained almost unchanged at 1.07 as against 1.09 yesterday.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

PS : I hope those who are following me on Twitter are getting good trading opportunities.

Please do not trade without stop loss.

TURNING POINTS FOR 24.06.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE:

In today's trading, Nifty Future opened weak and filled up the gap left on Monday's opening session. After moving sideways in the first half, Nifty Future moved up to make a high of 5344 and closed at 5334. As such, FMCG index made a new all time high during the day.

Those academically inclined must see 30 min chart to know why Nifty Future stopped at high of 5344 - as against 5345 mentioned in yesterday's post. Reliance continues to be weak and thus not supporting the Nifty Future's up move.

For tomorrow, long position should be taken only above 5345 with stop loss of 5320. On higher side it will find resistance at 5375 and 5420. If Reliance goes below 1025, Nifty Future may find it difficult to move above 5345.

Short positions should be taken only below 5290 with stop loss of 5330. On lower side it will find support at 5265 and major support at 5210.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options remains almost unchanged at 1.09 as against 1.13 yesterday.

Tomorrow being the FNO settlement day, be prepared for above average volatility and hence it is important to us STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 23.06.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE :

In today's trading, Nifty Future opened weak and has started making lower bottom and lower top. While it has closed (5320) weak - near the low (5311) of the day, it did not fill the gap left in yesterday's opening session. Reliance continues to under perform the market. With FNO settlement just 2 days away, possibility of Nifty Future going to test 5420 levels with some help from Reliance can not be ruled out as yet.

For tomorrow, Nifty Future may open weak and fill the gap and then move up as suggested above. If this happens, one can go long above 5325 with opening sessions low as the stop loss. On higher side, it will find resistance at 5345 and 5375. While I do believe 5420 to be a hurdle, it will be better not to remain short above 5345.

One can go short below 5290 with stop loss of 5330. On lower levels, it will find support at 5260 and 5220.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options increased marginally to 1.13 as against 1.07 yesterday.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 22.06.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE :

In today's trading, Nifty Future opened with a gap and continued its upward surge to make a high of 5378 and closed at 5358. Premium in Nifty Future reduced to just 5 points at the end of the day, as against 12 points while at the peak of the day. Other important observations for today's trading are :

1. Reliance did not participate in the up move - this does not augur well for the sustainability of the up move. However, we must wait for one more day for this to change.

2. Infosys is at a level which it has done twice before. Now is the third time. If it does not enter the new territory and instead turns around to lower levels - the fall could be quite sharp - Not to miss the 2246 level printed on the Infosys futures EOD Chart.

3. We are close to the ellipse curve mentioned yesterday in detail. Moreover, 5420 can still be a tough level to cross.

While what is stated above is a dampener to an otherwise good rally, we must be open to the possibility of Nifty Future coming down from these levels and plan our strategy accordingly.

For the reasons stated above, I would not advise fresh long positions and continue to sell profitable long positions. Existing long positions should be trailed with stop loss of 5340.

Short position should be taken up below 5325 with stop loss of 5350. At lower levels, it will find support at 5290 - by filling the gap left in the opening session today.

With FNO settlement round the corner, put call ratio of Index Options reduced to 1.07 as against 1.29 on the previous trading day.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 21.06.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

Have started giving MTP (Myturningpoints) on Twitter during market hours. If interested please visit www.twitter.com/myturningpoints.

Nifty Future :

In Friday's trading, Nifty Future ended the week at 5261 - nearer to the week's high of 5297. This level, as shown in the EOD chart, is a hurdle due to the trend line as well as there being a gap left earlier. On the weekly chart MACD is getting ready to cut (but not yet cut) the trigger line, indicating higher levels - if it does manage to cut in the coming week.

For tomorrow, long positions should be taken only if Nifty Future manages to trade above 5300, with stop loss of 5275. On higher side, it will find resistance at 5365 and 5385. On the EOD chart, I have shown an ellipse which has been tested for 6 times out of 7 (shown with black arrows) in the past 10 months and hence i would expect that, if Nifty Future breaks 5300, it could once again test the upper end of the ellipse in the coming few days.

Short position should be taken below 5240 with stop loss of 5265. At the lower levels, it will find support at 5220. Below 5200 weakness will accelerate and Nifty Future could test 5165 and 5115.
Incidentally, tomorrow is also an important Gann turn date and hence it would be prudent to liquidate profit making long positions at higher levels, so that in the event Nifty Future does go below 5200, we can get one more opportunity to buy near the lower end of this range bound market.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options remained almost unchanged at 1.29 as against 1.24 on the previous trading day.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketna Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 18.06.2010

NIFTY FUTURE EOD

Hi,

I am back after a short break. As i am yet to settle down, i have posted just a brief writeup for todayalongwith EOD chart. Regular post starts from 21.06.2010 - Monday.

From today, I will start giving MTP (myturningpoints) on twitter, as indicated earlier. Twitter address is www.twitter.com/myturningpoints . If you find it profitable for your trading/investment decisions - just follow me. Thanks to all those who have already signed up.

NIFTY FUTURE :

Since the time of my last post, Nifty Future is up by about 5% and near the upper end of the trading range.

It is significant to note that yesterday's high is near the previous gap - Low of 5298.9 on 27.4.2010 and High of 5290 on 30.4.2010. This coupled with a trend line shown on the EOD chart could act as a resistance. Moreover, today is the 8th day after seven straight up days and hence caution is advised. Existing long positions should be protected with stop loss of 5240.

While I do not recommend short positions at this stage, I would not advise fresh long positions at higher levels either. Better to do profit booking in those items which you have bought at lower levels.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

PS : Reliance is near its MTP of 1087. It will get stronger above this and will help Nifty decide future course of action.

TURNING POINTS FOR 04.06.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

PLEASE NOTE :
1. As I will be out of station for 10 days, there will be no post from 7th to 17th June, 2010.
Next post will now be on 18th evening. Inconvenience is regretted.
2. Upon return, I will be giving Myturningpoints (in twitter lingo - lets call it MTP) on

Twitter during Market hours for Nifty, Bank Nifty & all the Nifty Fifty items. To illustrate, Myturningpoint (MTP) for ONGC is 1220. On the way up 1220 will act as Resistance and on

way down it will act as Support. Please do not use it without keeping a suitable stop loss

depending on your risk profile.
In case you find this useful, and would like to avail of this facility, please feel free to

register on www.twitter.com/myturningpoints. If you are an Airtel subscriber you can even

register for getting an SMS – and you will receive the message as soon as I post it.

NIFTY FUTURE:

On the back of good close in the US markets, Nifty Future opened with a gap but then remained sideways as 5100 acted as a strong resistance which is illustrated on 30 min chart. The day's high was 5109, low was 5062 and closed at 5096 - just below 5100. Although, Nifty Future has decisively come out of the channel shown on the EOD chart, opening gap remains a concern as Nifty Future will come down in the coming days, to fill this gap.

Tomorrow, fresh long position should be taken only above 5110 with stop loss of 5075. on higher side it will find resistance at 5140 and major resistance at 5170.

I will not recommend going short even if Nifty Future may retrace up to 5000 to fill the gap left in the opening session today. This opportunity may be taken to go long with stop loss of 4970.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options increased to 1.33 as against 1.09 yesterday.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes and Good Bye for a few days.

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 03.06.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE :

The positive feature of today's trading was that Nifty Future did not go below yesterday's low and also closed near the high of the day. However, you will observe on the EOD chart that it still remains within the channel shown on the chart.

For tomorrow's trading it is advisable to create fresh long positions only above 5050 with stop loss of 5025. On higher side, it will find resistance at 5100 - 5150 and 5170. Kindly note that 5100 continues to remain a strong resistance.

Fresh short position should be created only below 4920 with stop loss of 4950. On lower side, it will find support at 4865 and 4800.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options reduced to 1.09 as against 1.22 yesterday.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 02.06.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD


NIFTY FUTURE:

In today's trading, Nifty Future opened at yesterday's level and remained in narrow range around the upper channel indicated on the EOD chart. In the second half, it dropped to make a low of 4934 and closed near the low of the day at 4944.

In tomorrow's trading Nifty may find support at 4895 and see a bounce which should be sold with a stop loss of 5000. In the event 4865 is broken, we should be ready for a new low. It will find support @ 4800 - 4725 and finally 4652 which is currently a mid point of 52 week Hi/Lo as shown on the EOD chart and also a logical point for market to bottom out as it would have also formed a double bottom very close to 4667done on 8th Feb. It would be better to buy 5000 Strike Price Call Option at the support levels indicated above.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options almost remained unchanged at 1.22 as against 1.21 yesterday.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.