TURNING POINTS FOR 01.06.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE :
In today's trading Nifty Future opened firm and made a high of 5072, on the back of good quarterly GDP numbers. Intraday, it made a low of 5015 and closed the day and the month at 5056. As mentioned yesterday, the monthly candle does leave the hopes of continuation of the up move possible in the coming month.

Nifty Future faces a strong resistance at 5100, hence at is advisable not to go long at higher levels. For tomorrow, one can either go short with a stop loss of 5105 - an aggressive approach or sell below 5000 with a stop loss of 5045. Nifty will find support at 5000 and 4920.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options marginally increased to 1.21 as against 1.19 yesterday.

Please do not trade without stop loss.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 31.05.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD


NIFTY FUTURE :

In Friday's trading Nifty Future made a high of 5055 and closed the week at 5041 - near the high of the day. As can be seen on the EOD chart, Nifty Future is near the upper end of a channel and to move outside, it must remain above 5045 in tomorrow's trading. With 5100 offering a major resistance and as we are already up for the past 3 days, i would not recommend fresh long positions for tomorrow.

One can consider going short with a stop loss of 5075. On downside it will find support at 5000 and 4920.

Another important point to be noted is that tomorrow is last day of the month and monthly close anywhere above 5000 should indicate that the continuation of up move is still intact and we can take the opportunity of buying at lower levels.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options increased to 1.19 as against 0.93 on the previous day.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 28.05.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE:

As expected, Nifty Future opened firm and maintained steady up move during the day to make a high of 5004 and also closed near the top of the day. Interestingly, 200 DMA is also at 5000. If the up move continues tomorrow, we will be back above 200 DMA - indicating bullish territory.

For tomorrow, one can create fresh long position with a stop loss of 4980. On higher side it will find resistance at 5035 - 5070 and 5100. If it manages to cross 5100, it can go up to 5200 and should be considered as a pullback rally.

Short position may be taken only at higher levels around 5200 with stop loss of 5225. On lower side weakness will accelerate only below 4900.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options decreased to 0.93 as against 1.10 yesterday.

Please do not trade without stop loss.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 27.05.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD


NIFTY FUTURE :

With US markets closing on the higher side yesterday, Nifty Future opened firm at 4855 maintained steady up move to make a high of 4925 and closed at 4917.

For tomorrow, one can consider buying Nifty Future above 4931 with a stop loss of 4900. On higher side, it will find resistance at 4975 - 5020 and 5075.

As suggested in the previous post, please avoid going short at lower levels. Those who have bought at lower levels in the past few day's and are in profit, will do well to book profit at higher levels, as Nifty Future should be considered out of danger only above 5225. To confirm that market is in a new up move, we have to see if Nifty Future sustains the up move after completion of FNO settlement.

You will do well to avoid going short at lower levels. As such, it is advisable not to remain short if Nifty Future moves above 4975.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options remained almost unchanged at 1.10 as against 1.07.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 26.05.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE:

In today's trading Nifty Future opened with a downside gap and traded listless till the opening time of Euorpean markets. With those markets trading lower, Nifty Future dropped below 4850 and made a low of 4786. I would like to highlight, that in the last 9 trading sessions we have seen a high of 5218 and today's low of 4786 (433 points - over 8 %) without any India specific negative reasons.

For the past few sessions, Nifty Future has been braking variuos supports as the Global markets continue to remain weak. As can be seen on the EOD chart, we have once again taken support at an important level. However, as we are now living in a Global village, we may be affected if US markets close lower today. We may open weak tomorrow and find support at 4725 - 4680 and 4650 (highlighted on the EOD chart). I would not advise going short at these levels, as the markets are quite oversold and pullback can be equally sharp. Instead one can buy at lower levels in cash market or buy Nifty 5000 Call Option for June '10.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options is at 1.07 as against 1.01 yesterday.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 25.05.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE :

On the back of positive close in US markets on last Friday and truce announced by both the Reliance Groups, Nifty Future opened with a wide gap and made a high of 5023 but could not sustain at higher levels and in the second half wiped out majority of gains made in the opening session. It made a low of 4911 and closed at 4931. The good part is that it has filled the opening gap today itself, but i believe that the upmove is still possible as long as we continue to remain above 4930.

For tomorrow, new long positions should be taken only if Nifty Future moves above 4970 with a stop loss of 4930. On higher side, it will face resistance at 5050 and 5080. Nifty Future will gain strength only above 5100.

Fresh short position should be considered only below 4850.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options increased to 1.01 as against 0.96 on the previous day.

We are into the last few days before the FNO settlement and hence please do not trade without STOP LOSS. However, the fall provides a good opportunity for delivery based buying.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 24.05.2010

NIFTY FUTURE EOD / NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN

NIFTY FUTURE:

In Friday's trading, Nifty Future opened with a down side gap to make a low of 4851 - an important support of pitchfork being shown on the chart for the past few days. Thereafter, Nifty Future continued to go up steadily and after some choppyness in the mid session made a high of 4944 and closed at 4928. While Nifty Future has taken support at the expected level, it does not seem to be out of danger unless it manages to cross above 4980.

For tomorrow, one can consider going long if Nifty Future remains above 4900 with stop loss of 4875. On higher side, it will find resistance at 4950 - 4980 and 5050 which could be a strong resistance area. It is advisable not to remain short above 5050.

Fresh short position may be taken up only below 4850.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options decreased to 0.96 as against 1.13 on the previous day.

We are now getting into last week of FNO settlement and volatility could be higher, hence please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

Wit Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 21052010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE :

In view of the increase in Gas prices by the Govt. ONGC opened strong which took the market to a high of 4970 but thereafter remained range bound and once again made an attempt to go up, but could not go higher than 4977 and closed lower at 4941. Today's EOD candle and the fact that Nifty Future could not go up to 5000 levels, confirms that more down side is left.

Considering the US markets at the time of writing, it is likely that we will have weak opening. It will be better to go short below 4900 with stop loss of 4940. On the down side, it will have support at 4850 - 4765 and 4725 as shown on the 30 min chart. It is advisable to wait for market to settle down before considering to go long in Nifty Future. It will be safer to use this opportunity to make delivery based buying or as suggested yesterday - consider buying 5000 Call Option for June expiry, when Nifty Future hits lower levels.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options increased to 1.13 as against 0.93 yesterday.

Below 4850, weakness in Nifty Future will accelerate, hence please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

PS: Regret the delay in uploading this post.

TURNING POINTS FOR 20.05.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE :

In today's trading Nifty Future opened with a big downside gap and could not go above 5019. Thereafter it remained sideways till it came out of the ellipse shown on the 30 min chart. Once out of the ellipse, it had a major fall and Nifty Future made a low of 4901 and closed @ 4923. You will observe on the EOD chart, that Nifty Future having come out of the ellipse has also closed outside it for the first time after over 8 months - which indicates that weakness should accelerate.

For tomorrow, one can go short if Nifty Future pulls back to 4950 with stop loss of 4985. in case of weak opening, one can go short with stop loss of 4930. On lower levels there are various supports as shown on the EOD chart viz. 4850 - 4765 and 4675. Break of 4850 will make Nifty Future quite weak and hence it is advisable to wait for Nifty Future to settle down before venturing a buy. Alternatively, it will be safer to buy June 5000 Call Options when Nifty Future hits lower levels indicated above.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options decreased to 0.93 as against 1.05 yesterday.

While lower levels offer excellent opportunity for delivery based buying, please do not take trading positions - particularly in Futures, without keeping STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 19.05.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE :

In today's trade Nifty Future opened at yesterday's closing levels and tested 50% of yesterday's move to make a low of 5018 and then moved up to make a high of 5108 and closed at 5068. Today's candle is a doji which indicates that market is undecided about the direction it would take tomorrow. Considering that Reliance continues to remain weak at the close, the possibility of market once again coming out of the ellipse shown on the EOD chart cannot be ruled out.

For tomorrow's trading, one can consider going short below 5020 with stop loss of 5050. If market goes up one can go short around 5100 with stop loss of 5120. On lower side, it will find support @ 4960 - 4920 and 4850.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options increased to 1.05 as against 0.97 yesterday.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 18.05.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE :

In today's trading, Nifty Future opened with a gap and in the first half of the day, made a low of 4962 - 8 points lower then the stop loss indicated yesterday. In the second half of the day, Nifty Future managed to fill the opening gap and made a high of 5075 and closed at 5058. While the pull back was sharp, i would not believe that the bottom is in place, since Reliance did not participate in the pull back and has closed near the low of the day. Secondly, at the time of pull back, Nifty Spot did not go above the previous day's low.

For tomorrow's trading, I would suggest going short around 5090 with stop loss of 5120. Alternatively if Nifty Future opens weak one can consider going short below 5020 with stop loss of 5050. On lower side it will find support at, 4960 - 4920 and 4850.

Long positions may be considered at lower levels of 4850 with stop loss of 4830.

Put Call ratio of Index Options decreased to 0.97 as against 1.17 on the previous day.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

PS : Please see the attached charts, it will help you.

TURNING POINTS FOR 17.05.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE :

In Friday's trading Nifty Future opened weak and during the early trades made a high of 5202 and weakness accelerated in the second half of the day when it broke the trend line at 5160 and went down to make a low of 5058 and closed at 5083. As the close - that too weekly close is near the low of the week, it is likely that opening on Monday will be weak.
On the EOD chart i have drawn an ellipse within which Nifty has been moving from last week of Aug '2009. It is likely that Nifty Future may take near 5000 levels as it would have filled the gap left on 10th May and then show a bounce.

We are now trading near the lower band of the trading range and hence it will be advisable to consider buying for delivery good quality stocks. For tomorrow, one can consider going long if Nifty takes support around 5000 levels and does not break the previous low of 4976 in the first hour of trade. Long position should be protected with stop loss of 4970. In the event that previous low is broken, then we have good support near 4900. Fall below 4850 should be worriesome as it would break the Pitchfork being shown on the EOD chart for sometime now.

On higher side, Nifty Future will find resistance at 5110 - 5140 and 5165.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options increased to 1.17 as against 1.01 on the previous trading day.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 14.05.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE:

In today's trading , Nifty Future opened with a gap and made a high of 5218 but could not sustain the gains in the second half of the day and Nifty Future filled the gap and made a low of 5165 and closed at 5178. Though the EOD candle is not very encouraging for tomorrow, i would not suggest going short at these levels.

In tomorrow's trade Nifty future could go down to 5135 and bounce back, hence it is advisable to go long at 5135 with a stop loss of 5100. On higher side it will find resistance at 5225 and 5300 thereafter.

Nifty Future will get weak below 5110 and weakness will accelerate below 5080.

I would like to add that tomorrow being the last trading day of the week it is important to have a close above 5225 to see the continuation of the rally in the next week. Close below 5080 will indicate weakness to continue next week.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options remained almost unchanged at 1.01 as against 1.02 yesterday.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 13.05.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE :

In today's trade, Nifty Future made a lower top (5174) and lower bottom (5088), but the good part was the sharp up move in the second half of the trading session and closed @ 5150 - near the high of the day. Today's candle leaves hope for continuation of the up move tomorrow.

i will continue to suggest that fresh buying should be done above 5175 with stop loss of 5140. On higher side Nifty Future will find resistance @ 5235 and major hurdle at 5300. For Nifty Future to gain strength, Reliance going above 1100 is necessary particularly when Bharati Airtel is a drag on the Nifty Future.

While weakness will accelerate below 5080, i do not expect Nifty Future to go down and hence will not recommend going short on Nifty Future.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options remained almost unchanged at 1.02 as against 1.04 yesterday.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 12.05.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE :

Today Nifty Future and Reliance started the day with showing open=high and thereby capping the chances of further rise during day. Nifty Future remained bearish though out the day and closed lower but we must allow one day pull back considering yesterday's one way rise of 3.50%.

As can be seen on the 30 min chart, as long as Nifty Future does not go below 5110 there should not be any problem for this up move and hence existing long positions should be protected with 5110 as stop loss. If this level is broken, there is a possibility of the gap left yesterday will be filled and Nifty Future may retest the lows @ 4976. However, this possibility looks remote and hence i do not recommend going short tomorrow.

Fresh long positions should be taken when Nifty Future moves above 5170 (with stop loss of 5140) as it would have crossed the trend line shown on the 30 min chart. On higher side, 5240 and 5300 will act as resistance.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options remained almost unchanged at 1.04 as against 1.05 on the previous day.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 11.05.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE :

On the back of stimulus package announced by EU over the weekend - Nifty Future opened with a gap and with adv/decline ratio in the region of 9:1, maintained steady rise throughout the day (up 3.50%), with day's high @ 5208 and close @ 5200 - near the high of the day. Considering today's close and sharp rise in US markets, we can expect strong opening tomorrow. Long positions can be taken with 5170 as a stop loss. On higher side, 5240 and 5300 will act as resistance levels.

Considering the sharp rally, selling should be avoided for now. Once we have a close above 5300, we have to consider the next resistance only at 5420 and 5500.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options remained almost unchanged at 1.05 as against 1.06 on the previous trading day.

Please do not trade without Stop Loss.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

PS: It is heartening to see a sharp rally, particularly when we were trying to find the bottom levels. We should not forget the fact that these rallies are purely based on the stimulus packages given by the Govts. While all are busy enjoying the rally, i don't think any one cares about the long term economic implications of these actions. What is important for us as traders/investors is to encash the profits from time to time and be selective of the Companies you ride in this rally. Don't fight the markets - ride it.

TURNING POINTS FOR 10.05.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE :

In Friday's trading, Nifty Future opened weak and made a new low of 4976 and remained weak/sideways throughout the day. Though the EOD Candle suggests it to be "Doji Star", only if tomorrow Nifty Future remains above 5040. This looks little difficult, in view of the continued weakness in US markets. However, tomorrow's close above 5040 should be considered a big positive for long trades.

Tomorrow in early trades, one can consider going short below 5000 with stop loss of 5040. On down side, it will find support at 4975 - 4945 and 4920. At these levels one can consider going long in Futures with Stop loss of 4900 or at least buy 5000 or 5100 call option for a pull back rally.

On the higher side one can consider going long only above 5040 with stop loss of 5000. It will have major resistance at 5110 and 5165.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options remained almost unchanged at 1.06 as against 1.02 on the previous day.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 07.05.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE :

In today's trading, Nifty Future opened near yesterday's closing level but maintained downward bias to make a new low at 5025 during the mid session. This being a good support level, there was a sharp up move of about 80 points and Nifty Future closed at 5087 - but continued lower bottom lower top, suggesting continued weakness. For tomorrow's trading it is pertinent to note that Reliance has taken support at 1000 levels today and has closed weak for the day. Fall below, 1000 it can take Nifty Future to test the 5025 levels or much lower to test the next majort support at 4940 levels.

One can consider going short below 5070 with stop loss of 5100. On lower side it will find support at 5025 or 4940 which can act as a major support. At this level, long positions can be taken with a tight stop loss of 4920 or 5000 Call Options can be purchased.

On higher levels, 5165 can act as a resistance.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options decreased to 1.02 as against 1.16 yesterday.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 06.05.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE :

On the back of weak global clues, Nifty Future opened with a gap to make a low of 5053 in early trades and remained sideways for major part of the day. In the last one hour it moved up mainly due to short covering, and managed to fill the gap. The EOD chart does not suggest that the worst is over yet. Please also refer to 30 min chart to appreciate how the market moved during the day.

For tomorrow, one can go short below 5090 with stop loss of 5120. Alternatively if Nifty Future opens firm one can consider going short near 5165 with stop loss of 5200.

On lower levels Nifty Future will find support at 5030 and 4945.

As indicated yesterday, 4945 level is a 200 DMA and also a 0.618 level of correction as shown in EOD chart and hence a good possibilty for market to make a bottom in the coming days.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options increased to 1.16 as against 0.94 yesterday.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 05.05.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE :

In early trades, Nifty Future made a high of 5235 and remained weak and once again made a high of 5238. In the second half of the day it broke the much awaited level of 5200 and made a low of 5128 and closed at 5141 - near the low of the day, suggesting weak opening for tomorrow.

One can consider going short tomorrow, with stop loss of 5170. On downside it will find support at 5030 and thereafter major support at 4940. At this level Nifty Future will also find support of 200 DMA. One can consider going long at this level with stop loss of 4920.

The positive feature of today's trading is that though Nifty Future remained weak, Reliance has not broken previous day's low. Moreover, tomorrow also happens to be an important day as per Gann's seasonal time period.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options decreased to 0.94 as against 1.05 yesterday.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 4.5.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE :

In today's trading Nifty Future opened with a down side Gap and remained weak throughout the day and made a low of 5202 (but did not break 5200) and closed at 5218. The EOD candle does give hope that tomorrow Nifty Future can improve if it moves above 5235.

One can consider going long if Nifty Future moves above 5235 with stop loss of 5200. On higher side it will find resistance at 5255 - 5275 and 5315. Long position must be taken with a tight stop loss.

Fresh short positions should be taken below 5185 with a stop loss of 5225. On lower side it will find support at 5165 and 5120.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options remained almost same at 1.05 as against 1.06 on the previous trading day.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 3.5.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN
NIFTY FUTURE :

In Friday's trading, Nifty Future opened firm, but could not go beyond 5290 and just managed to fill the gap - that too partly. Thereafter, Nifty Futture maintained downward bias to make a low of 5252 and closed at 5245.

In view of weak US markets, we can expect the opening to be weak. One can go short below 5200 with stop loss of 5230. On down side it will find support at 5165 - 5120. Close below 5165 will take Nifty Future to 5030 or worst still 4950. It will be better not to create fresh long positions untill market direction is clear or it settles down near 4950 level.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options was 1.06 as against 1.31 on the previous day.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.