TURNING POINTS FOR 01.02.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE :

In Friday's trading, Nifty Future opened weak and after announcement of RBI Credit Policy, due to sudden sell off made a low of 4757 and thereafter quickly recovered by about 132 points to make a high of 4889 and closed @ 4875. In my post for Friday's trading i had mentioned about remote possibility of testing 4750, which has happened although as a sudden spike. Having taken the support at a trend line market seems to have completed the correction but in light of global weakness, possibility of retesting 4750 levels can not be ruled out. Moreover, remote possibility of breaking this low can not be ruled out as of now. In such an event 4600 can be tested where it will find support of 200 DMA and 50% retracement level too.

For tomorrow, one can go long with strict stop loss of 4840. Nifty Future will find resistance at 4920 - 4965 and 5000. Nifty future will show strength only above 5030.

In the event of Nifty future retracing after making a top around 4920, one can short below the day's open with a stop loss of top made around 4920. On its way down it will find support at 4840 and below which weakness will accelerate and with possibility of retesting 4750 becoming very high.

Put Call Ratio of Index options decreased to 0.92 as against 1.00 on the previous day.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 29.01.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE:

In today's trading Nifty future seems to have completed its target of .618 correction by making a low of 4823. Having tested this level twice i.e yesterday 4833 and today it did 4823, we can assume that this bottom will hold for some time. As Nifty Future is quite oversold, it can go up to 5060 levels and then come down again.

Tomorrow is a critical day as RBI policy will be announced. Considering double bottom, aggressive traders can create long position with 4820 as a stop loss. Alternatively, one can go long, when Nifty future breaks above 4925 with stop loss of 4880. On higher side it will find resistance at 4960 - 5000 and 5060.

Keeping a worst case target of 4750 on the lower side, this period offers an opportunity to buy good quality stocks for pre budget rally. I have also drawn a rectangle on the EOD chart which shows that we have been range bound - 4500 to 5300 for over 5 months now. Once we are able to break the level of 5300, we should be within striking distance of the previous top of 6336 - hopefully with narrow range days behind us.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options increased to 1 as against 0.92 yesterday.

In view of RBI policy announcements, tomorrow could be a volatile day, so please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 28.01.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE:

In today's trading market opened weak and made lower bottom and lower top on 30 min charts, for better part of the day. The way it fell in the last one hour, it appears that bull liquidation should be near its end with tomorrow being the FNO settlement day. I had indicated yesterday that 4825 is likely to be tested, but not knowing that the same will be acheived today itself.

Tomorrow, if Nifty Future opens near today's close, one can consider buying above 4870 with stop loss as 4830. On the way up, it will find resistance at 4900 - 4935 and 4950 levels.

Alternatively, if Nifty Future breaks 4800 levels, one can consider buying Nifty Future after it stabilises near 4750 levels - where it will find Trend Line support as shown in EOD chart. On the way up it will find resistance at 4830 - 4900 - 4935 and 4950 levels.

As the oscillators are in oversold region, i will not advise going short at these levels. It will be better to consider buying Nifty Future after it stabilises at the levels given above.

Put Call Ratio of Index options remained unchanged at 0.92 levels.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

PS: Those following (and there are quite a few) the simple idea given in TP Grid would have got the sell signal when Nifty future went below 5225.

Many items are close to testing the 52 week mid-point given in C. Please note that this will act as a good support and delivery based buying can be considered with suitable stop loss.

TURNING POINTS FOR 27.01.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE:

From Monday's trading it appears that Nifty Future does not want to go below 5000 range as weak US markets did not dampen our sentiments much. However, EOD candle does indicate weakness and the possibility of Nifty Future going down to 4900 range can not be ruled out as yet. And in case if 4900 is broken, it will find support @ 4825. From the 30 min chart, you will observe that some time needs to pass before Nifty Future can break the Trend Line for going up - shown in Blue colour.

For tomorrow, if Nifty Future crosses 5040, one can buy with stop loss of 4995. On higher side 5075, 5125 and 5155 will be resistance levels.

I expect Nifty Future to take support around 4900 - 4920 range (please refer trend line and mid point shown on 30 min chart). If Nifty Future goes down to 4900 levels one can buy after it stabilises for some time with stop loss as the low made at that time.

Put Call Ratio of Index Option has gone down to 0.92 as against 1.01 on the previous day.

With FNO settlement just round the corner, expect higher volatility, and hence do not forget to use STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 25.01.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE:

In Friday's trading Nifty Future opened weak and made a low of 4946 and then sharply moved up, to make day's high of 5074 and closed at 5020.

Considering Friday's close and sharp fall in US markets, it is quite likely that we may have a weak opening. Nifty Future can go down to 4900-4920 range which should provide support. While World markets are in correction mode, we must remember that good results from Reliance and Maruti will also have a positive effect on our markets.

On the 30 min chart you will obsereve that Nifty future has to spend some time before it cuts the trend line (shown in Blue) for going up. I expect Nifty Future to take support at 4900-4920 range and if market stabilises in that region one can buy with that low as a Stop Loss.

On the way up it will find resistance at 5010 - 5050 and 5100.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options has gone down to 1.01 as against 1.15 on the previous trading day.

With 26th Jan (Tuesday) being a holiday, we have only 4 trading session before FNO Settlement and this will lead to higher volatility, so please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 22.01.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE:
In today's trading Nifty Future opend weak on the back of global cues and hovered around 5200 levels for sometime. But in the second half of the day fell by over 100 points and closed weak near the low of the day. Today's fall, though sharp has to be seen in context with narrow trading range for the past two weeks and was mainly triggered by L & T and PSU stocks due to certain announcements.

While weak opening tomorrow is a forgone conclusion, Nifty future can find support near 5040 levels. If it does not hold this level, it can go down to 4970 levels.

For tomorrow, i would suggest that new fresh short position should be created below 5040 with stop loss of 5075, or if it opens higher, short position should be taken at 5125 with stop loss of 5150.

I believe, that chances of Nifty Future taking support around 4970 levels are high and hence if it takes support at this level, one can consider buying above 5000 with stop loss as the low made around 4970.

Please note that tomorrow, Reliance is scheduled to declare its results (although normally after market hours) and that can give the required reason for market to turn around.

Put Call Ratio of Index options remained @ 1.15 as against 1.16 yesterday.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 21.10.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE:

In today's trading Nifty Future made a top of 5247 and maintained downward bias for most of the day. It made a low of 5195 and bounced back due to trend line support. As stated yesterday, Nifty Future has such support, till about 5120, hence caution is advised on the short side.

Tomorrow if Nifty is not able to cross 5225, one can go short below 5195 with stop loss of 5230. On down side, it will find support @ 5150 and 5120.

Fresh long position should be taken only above 5250 with stop loss of 5220. On higher side it will find resistance at 5275 and 5330.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options increased to 1.16, as against 1.04 yesterday.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 20.01.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE:

In today's trade Nifty Future, having gone below the trend line at 5250, quickly lost another 30 points, and made a low of 5212 and closed @ 5221.

I continue to remain optimistic about market going up, mainly due to MACD getting ready to cut the trigger line on the Weekly Chart. Secondly, as evident from the EOD and 30 min charts shown above, 5176 and 5150 can provide support.

For tomorrow's trading, one can buy Nifty Future when it goes above 5250 with a stop loss of 5220. On higher side it will find resistance at 5275 and it will be advisable not to remain short above this level, as the chances of crossing 5305 will be very high.

Put Call Ratio of index Options decreased to 1.04 as aganist 1.15 on the previous day.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 19.01.2010

NIFTY FUTURE EOD / NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN

NIFTY FUTURE:

On the back of weak Global cues, Nifty Future opened weak and made a low of 5232, but then immediately went up and made a high of 5290 during the day, but could not cross the 5300 levels. The market remained choppy in the 2nd half of the day. Well today's close and the EOD candle still leave enough hopes for breaking the 5300 levels.

On the EOD chart, I have indicated a triangle formation taking place. Once we break it - hopefully on the up side, we should have atleast 100 points gain. One more good thing for today was that market had about 60 points range.

I would continue to maintain upward bias and suggest buy (now above) 5300 with stop loss of 5270, on higher side it will face resistance @ 5330 and 5375.

On down side one can go short below 5220 with stop loss of 5255. It will find support @ 5200 and 5175 and 5145.

Put Call ratio of Index Options remained almost unchanged @ 1.15 as against 1.18 on the previous trading day.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 18.01.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE:

Friday's trading session was one more day with narrow range of just 26 points. Current phase seems to be the time of setting record, as to the lowest trading range in 6 1/2 hour session. One reason for this situation could be that neither the bulls nor the bears have good reason to push their weight on the market. In any case this phase benefits the option writers as they have not much to worry but because of lower volatility, have to contend with lower option premiums.

In view of such a narrow range there leaves nothing much to predict for Nifty Future. While i do not have the tools to predict when we will be out of this narrow range syndrome, i can only say that one can consider going long above 5275 with a stop loss of 5250. On higher side 5330 and 5375 will offer resistance.

One can consider going short below 5220 with stop loss of 5255. On lower side 5200 and 5175 will offer support.

Put Call Ratio of Index options reduced to 1.18 as against 1.38 on the previous day.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 15.01.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE:

Once again today's trading remained in a very narrow range of just 31 points. Nifty Future could not go above 5275 and made a low of 5244. With 6 1/2 hours of trading time, it is a real test of patience for those trading in Nifty Future.

With so many items making New High every day and US markets too being so buoyant, it is just a matter of time when Nifty Future too breaks the previous high of 5305.

For tomorrow one should consider buying Nifty Future after it goes above 5275 with a stop loss of 5250. On higher side, it will find resistance at 5330 and 5375.

Bearishness should be considered only if Nifty Future goes below 5225 and it will find support at 5200 and 5170.

Put Call Ratio of Index options increased to 1.38 as against 1.06 yesterday.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 14.01.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE:

As expected Nifty Future opened weak and made a low of 5176 and in the last two hours bounced back to make a high of 5248 and closed near the high of the day.

Considering today's close, Nifty Future is likely to open firm tomorrow, but it is advisable to buy only if it trades above 5275 with a stop loss of 5250. Once it manages to cross, 5275, the probability of Nifty Future crossing 5303 will be very high. Hence it is not advisable to remain short above this level. On higher side 5345 to 5365 will provide resistance.

One should consider going short only if Nifty Future trades below 5200 that too with a stop loss of 5235. With Infosys making a new High today, this looks quite unlikely.

Put Call Ratio of index options remained almost unchanged at 1.06 as against 1.04 yesterday.

Please do not trade without Stop Loss.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 13.01.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE:

Contrary to my expectations, Infosys results were declared before the market opened for trading this morning. As expected, market opened weak but thanks to Infosys, it went up to 5285 by the middle of the day, but gave up all the gains in the second half of the day to make a low of 5200 and closed at 5209.

While today's close does indicate weak opening tomorrow, i would request the readers to see Nifty Future EOD chart given above. You will find that Nifty Future has multiple trend line support around 5170 levels and hence one needs to be cautious, as market may show a bounce from this level.

For tomorrow one can go short only below 5170 with stop loss of 5205. On the down side it will have support @ 5150 and 5120.

On the up side Nifty Future will have to first clear 5225 and major hurdle at 5250. One can buy Nifty future if it trades above 5250, with stop loss of 5220. on higher side it will have resistance at 5275. Thereafter, it is advisable not to remain short as the chances of breaking 5303 will be very high.

Put Call Ratio of Index options increased to 1.04 as against 0.95 yesterday.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 12.01.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN /NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE:

As expected market opened firm to make the day's high of 5295 in ear;y trades. Thereafter, market remained in narrow range and remained bearish throughout the day and made a low of 5248 and closed at 5256. Interesting feature of today's trading was that although it closed weak, on EOD chart, it has made higher top and higher bottom, which leaves hope for market to gain strength tomorrow, depending on the Infosys results. Till now Infosys results were always known, when markets opened for trading, but for the first time tomorrow, as per the new timings market would have opened and the results will follow, sometime thereafter.

In view of the above, the market opening can be expected to be weak and take direction based on Infosys results. As stated yesterday, market should be considered weak only below 5200 and more so if it goes below 5170. It will be advisable to take the trade after knowing Infosys results and buy can be initiated with the above levels as stop loss. On higher side it will gain strength only above 5305 and will find major resistance, in the range of 5345 and 5365.

Nifty Future may be sold if it trades below 5170 with stop loss of 5200. It will find support @ 5150 and 5120.

Put Call ratio of Index Options decreased to 0.95 as against 1.17 yesterday. This too suggests that participants are not very bearish.

Please be very cautious and make sure to use STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POIONTS FOR 11.01.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE:
In Friday's trading Nifty Future continued to remain in 50 points range. The point to be noted here is that Nifty Future has not been falling much , although sectors like Auto and Infotech have given substantial correction in the last two days. Moreover, strong close in US markets and positive statements by our PM about 9% growth should help the sentiment.
After making lower lows and lower highs for the past two days, we must consider that trend will become positive above Friday's high of 5286.
For tomorrow, either one can buy with stop loss of 5210 in the opening session, or buy when Nifty Future breaks 5290 with stop loss below day's open - depending on individual risk profile.
On higher side 5345 and 5365 range should offer strong resistance.
Nifty Future should be considered weak below 5200 and more so if it closes below 5170.
Put Call Ratio of Index Options was @ 1.17 as against 1.27 on the previous day.
Please do not trade without STOP LOSS as market may have a sharp movement above 5305 on the up side and 5200 on the down side.
With Best Wishes,
Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 08.01.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 min / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE:
In today's trading Nifty Future has made lower top and lower bottom, which can be taken as the first sign of weakness. Today the range was marginally better - about 50 points, but no where near 100 points which we have got used to. Weakness in Inofsys and Maruti/Tata Motors was marginally offset by Reliance.

For tomorrow's trading, one can go short with 5305 as Stop Loss. Nifty Future will find support @ 5225 and 5170. If this level is broken we should be ready to see the levels of 5075.

It will be advisable to avoid buying at these levels and wait for some correction to take place before buying is considered. Like a sprinter, market may want to see some lower levels whereby it can gather steam to scale new heights with strength, as we approach Budget time.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options increased to 1.27 as against 1.12 yesterday.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS, as the fight between the bulls and bears intensifies.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 07.01.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 Min / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE:

One more day with narrow range and a new High. It happens to be the 5th consecutive day with same characteristics. But the fact that market is making a New Top every day and Mid Caps are doing fine, nobody is complaining except the day traders. Interestingly, Nifty Future Range which used to be at least about 100 points, has now shrunk to 30-40 points.

For tomorrow, going by the past few days we must see a new high. As stated in my earlier posts, 5330 and 5370 should be major hurdles for Nifty Future. This can also be seen with 1.618 levels shown in both the charts attached herewith.

As stated yesterday, i do not recommend buy trades for Nifty Future unless we test some lower levels. Similarly, Sell trades should be avoided until Nifty Future breaks the trend line, which based on today's price levels is below 5260. As such the trading range is too narrow to offer any meaningful trades, hence it is better not to be impatient to get in to a trade. As the proverb goes - Patience is a virtue; is apt for the current market scenario. In any Case i do not expect this situation to continue for long as any major player/event can change the situation.

Those enjoying the ride in Mid caps should be vigilant, as cats & dogs have started moving up and people have started getting unsolicited SMS/Email messages to buy penny stocks with enticing price targets. So Buyer Beware.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options is marginally lower at 1.12 as against 1.27 on the previous day.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 06.01.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 min / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE:

On the back of strong US Markets, Nifty Future opened with a gap to make a New High, but thereafter remained in 32 points narrow range for the whole day. There is a divergence on the 30 min charts, indicating lack of strength in the up move. With Reliance not showing strength, the up move remains unconvincing.

While EOD candle does not indicate any weakness and hence going short is not advisable until Nifty Future goes below 5200. Below this level one can go short with Stop Loss of 5235. On down side it will find support @ 5170 and 5150.

On higher side it will have resistance @ 5330 and 5375. I have not suggested buy as i am not convinced about the up move, however one can always consider the above points for reference.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options remained unchanged @ 1.27.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 05.01.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN /NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE:
Two important firsts today - First day of the decade and also first day of the early start, received lukewarm response from the market participants. Though Nifty Future/Sensex clocked New Highs, intraday movement was t0o narrow and that too accompanied by low volumes. But the fact remains that market went up to make a New High and seems to have crossed the 5200 barrier.

For tomorrows trading, Nifty future can face resistance at 5300 and 5330 levels. As far as long positions are concerned i would advise cautious approach. Those carrying long positions should consider 5200 as a stop loss level.

Short positions should be taken only on break of 5200 level with a stop loss of 5235.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options increased to 1.27 as against 0.87 during previous days trading.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 04.01.2010

Please download 2010 Calendar with
NSE Trading Holidays marked on it.

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE:

Finally the year which started with lot of weakness has ended with a strong performance of 76% gains in Nifty and 81% in BSE SENSEX. Those of you who would like to see the detailed statistics, can refer to my weekend post titled "MARKET PERFORMANCE OVER THE PAST TWO DECADES", which is now available under archives. It does make an interesting reading, as I have given comparative figures of GOLD and also some of the major world indices. Trust you will find it interesting and useful.

In last Thursday's trading, market could not show the strength which is expected on the FNO settlement day, but did manage to close @ 5202, after recording a new high @ 5229.

For Monday's trading, one can go short below 5165 with a stop loss of 5200. It will find support @ 5125 - 5075 - 5015 and thereafter 4965 should be considered as a major support area.

Tomorrow's opening level should be considered significant for the day's to come and can be used as a good reference point for deciding the direction in the market.

For tomorrow long position should be avoided except at significant low levels of 4965.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options stood considerably lower @ 0.87 as against 1.06 on the previous day.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

PS: Please rework on your morning schedules so that you are ready to open the market @ 9.00 AM from Monday. If all the other markets also take leaf out of this new schedule, may be it will have positive effect on the GDP! - Always look at the brighter side of things.

MARKET PERFORMANCE OVER THE PAST TWO DECADES.

Please download 2010 Calendar with

NSE Trading Holidays marked on it.

Wishing you the very best for the New Year.
Completion of a decade, is a good time to look at the performance of the Key Indices over a longer time frame – though we now have more Day Traders, then long term investors.
For the purpose of this study, I have considered data for two decades for Indices, but could not do the same for stocks, as complete data is not available. For the decade that just ended, YOY increase/decrease has been given to highlight the fluctuation over the decade.
CONCLUSION:
Had it not been for the stimulus led recovery in the last year, the figures given above would have looked worst. Conventional wisdom, that Gold and Stock Prices are inversely related remains unchanged.
Performance of US, Europe and Japan Indices continues to be bad. In case of India, the returns have nearly halved compared to previous decade, but the returns have been better than in China.
I hope the data given above, helps you to maintain correct perspective of things when we are reminded of all good things happening around us.

Ketan Asher.