TURNING POINTS FOR 31.12.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE:

After a firm opening, Nifty Future remained in a narrow range despite it being a FNO settlement day. As mentioned yesterday, lack of participation by Reliance and SBI turned out to be hurdles for Nifty Future going up. Once again, it was Infosys which helped Nifty Future remain buoyant. During the day, Nifty Future traded in just 38 point range with high of 6106 and low of 6068 and closed firm at 6103.

While Nifty Future appears to be gaining strength, lack of participation by key stocks like Reliance & SBI makes the up move looks unsustainable. On the EOD chart, I have highlighted a wedge like formation, which shows that Nifty Future will become weak once it falls below 6030.

For today long position may be taken if Nifty Future trades above 6111 with a stop loss of 6080. On the higher side, it will find resistance at 6125 - 6175 and major hurdle at 6210.

I would advise extreme caution at higher levels and it will be best to avoid fresh long positions today - particularly as participation may be low, in view of people being in celebration mood. Existing long positions may be trailed with a stop loss of 6060.

Short position may be taken either at 6175 with strict stop loss of 6211 or at lower levels when Nifty Future breaks 6060 levels. On the downside, it will find support at 6030 - 5970 - 5940 and 5900.

While we are likely to end the year with about 16% increase in Nifty Future, the quarterly candle is likely to be a doji - indicating indecision about the future direction. Considering that we have already run up quite a bit, one needs to protect the long positions with care.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options decreased marginally to 1.03 as against 1.09 on the previous day.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

WISHING YOU ALL THE VERY BEST FOR 2011.

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 30.12.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE:

After a firm opening yesterday, Nifty Future maintained positive bias throughout the day. During the day it made a high of 6075 and low of 6015. It closed firm at 6069 - near the high of the day and thus suggesting firm opening for today. While it is good to see Nifty Future going up as expected, the sustainability at higher levels remains suspect - without participation from Reliance and SBI. Yesterday's rise was mainly contributed by Infosys, Bharati & Hind Uniliver. Reliance has to move above 1065 to gain strength whereas SBI has to move above 2770 to gain strength. Please do not remain short in Bank Nifty Future above 11655 (Dec series).

For today, one can consider going long above 6075 with a stop loss of 6040. On the higher side it will find resistance at 6100 - 6125 and major hurdle at 6170, as shown on the EOD chart. As mentioned last week, I will continue to maintain this up move to be a pull back till Nifty Future goes up to 6210. Hence, it is advisable to take this opportunity to sell on delivery basis.

Fresh short position may be considered only below 6020 with stop loss of 6050. On the downside, it will find support at 5975 - 5940 and 5900.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options remained almost unchanged at 1.09 as against 1.11 yesterday.

Being a FNO settlement, volatility will be higher and hence please do not trade without keeping a STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 29.12.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE:

One more day with a narrow range - only 31 points with high of 6028 and low of 5997. Just 97 points trading range for the past 6 trading days. It seems that 6035 level - mid point of 6349 & 5727 is turning out to be a difficult level to cross. On one hand IT stocks are supporting the Nifty, whereas Bank stocks (mainly SBI) & Reliance are pulling the Nifty down.

For tomorrow, I would continue to maintain that long positions should be taken only if Nifty Future is able to cross above 6040 with a stop loss of 6000. On the up side it will find resistance at 6100 and 6125. Please note that we are just 2 days away from FNO settlement, hence it is not advisable to remain short above 6045.

Fresh Short position should be considered only below 5980 with stop loss of 6000. On the down side it will find support at 5940 and 5900.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options decreased to 1.11 as against 1.22 yesterday.

Either side move could be sharp, hence please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 28.12.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE:

In today's trading, Nifty Future opened firm and made a high of 6063 in the 1st hour of trade. Thereafter, it maintained downward bias for the remainder of the day to make a low of 6005 and closed at 6012. On EOD chart you will observe that Nifty Future is finding it difficult to get into the yellow shaded area. The day's close has been near the low of the day - suggesting weak open for tomorrow.

For tomorrow, short position can be taken below 6000 with stop loss of 6040. On the lower side, it will find support at 5950 and 5900. Fresh long position should be considered only if Nifty Future manages to move above 6040. In the event of a sharp fall, one can consider going long at 5900 levels (for pullback in view of FNO settlement), with stop loss of 5860.

In case of Bank Nifty Future, 11655 remains critical level to cross for further upside. Considering the FNO settlement on Thursday, it is advisable not to remain short if Bank Nifty Future moves above 11655.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options increased to 1.22 as against 1.03 on the previous trading day.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 27.12.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE :

As expected, Nifty Future did end the week (closed at 6037)on a firm note, thus suggesting firm opening for Monday. We are now heading for end of the month next Friday. Considering the weekly close, we can expect Nifty Future to make an attempt to give a strong close for the month too, but as mentioned in this weeks post we have to be ready for continuation of the down side even after going up to 6215.

Bank Nifty needs to remain above 11655 to show strength. One can consider going long in SBI above 2800 with stop loss of 2750.

For tomorrow, one can consider going long above 6050 with stop loss of 6025. On the higher side, it will face resistance at 6100 and major hurdle at 6125-6140 region.

Short position may be considered below 6000 with stop loss of 6050. On the down side, it will find support at 5970 - 5940.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options decreased to 1.03 as against 1.09 on the previous trading day.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR WEEKENDED 24.12.2010

NIFTY FUTURE WEEKENDED 24.12.2010
Last week ended on a firm note with Nifty Future making a range of 143 points - Hi of 6043 & Lo of 5900. As has been mentioned in my posts through the last week, Nifty Future could not cross the mid point of 6038 levels decisively during the week. But considering the strong close for the week at 6037, it is quite likely that we may cross this level to face the next hurdle at 6100 range.
Another noteworthy point for the last week is that Nifty Future made a higher bottom & higher top on the weekly chart - suggesting return of strength.
The next 5 trading sessions are the last for the current month /quarter /year and also the decade. I would like to mention here that even if monthly close is near 6215, it can still be considered as a pullback. While leading IT stocks are making new 52 week high, the Bank stocks precariously poised, and Reliance not taking the lead - the market as a whole does display mixed signals as to the medium term direction. In view of this, I would continue to advise caution at higher levels - as we continue to be haunted by higher Oil price, Higher Inflation and all sorts of Scams. The intreguing thing at the end of this decade is that we have all different asset classes viz. Stocks, Gold/Silver, Real Estate and Commodities all doing too well simultaneoulsy.
The best way to spend next week is to celebrate the good things of the year going by and prepare yourself to embrace the next decade.
With Best Wishes,
Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 24.12.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE :

In today's trading, Nifty Future traded in a narrow range of 31 points - High of 6012 and Low of 5981. The day closed at 5996. The good part of this narrow range was that Nifty Future did not go below the previous day's low - there by keeping the hopes of further up move alive for tomorrow, particularly when it is the last trading day of the week and followed by FNO settlement on next Thursday.

At the cost of being repetitive, I would advise caution at higher levels at 6100, even if 6043 is crossed tomorrow. However, those willing to take higher risk can consider going long above 6021 with strict stop loss of 5990. On the higher side, it will face resistance at 6045 and major hurdle at 6100. If Nifty Future goes above 6045, short covering itself will help to take Nifty Future closer to the 6100 target. In case you have a bullish view (above 6020), its not a bad idea to buy 6100 call for the current month as the premium is just about Rs. 12.

Short position may be taken below 5970 with stop loss of 6000. On the down side, it will find support at 5940 and 5890.

As Nifty Future has been languishing within 72 points range for the past 3 days, it is but natural to expect big range which ever side the market breaks out tomorrow. Lets hope US markets give us decisive guidance when we open tomorrow morning.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options decreased to 1.09 as against 1.21 yesterday.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS - irrespective of your view.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 23.12.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE :

In today's trading Nifty Future opened firm and made a new high of 6043 in the 1st hour. Thereafter, it remained sideways and in the last one hour, made a sharp down move to make the day's low of 5977 and closed at 6000. As mentioned yesterday, Nifty Future did find resistance as it moved higher.

In view of the sharp downward moves, I will continue to advise caution at higher levels. However, as Nifty Future has made higher bottom and higher top as compared to yesterday, it can not be considered weak as yet. On the higher side it may once again find resistance at 6038 and thereafter major hurdle at 6100.

Short position may be considered below 5970 with stop loss of 6000. On the down side, it will find support at 5940 and 5900. Weakness will accelerate only below 5850.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options increased to 1.21 as against 0.98 yesterday.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 22.12.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE :

In today's trading Nifty Future opened firm and traded with high of 6022 and low of 5971. The day's trading closed at 6012 - near the high of the day. While the closing has been good, one must factor in that it was largely due to spurt in Reliance in the last one hour of trading. Otherwise, after a firm opening Nifty Future remained in 25 points range for better part of the day. Please note that for Bank Nifty Future, 11655 remains a critical level to decide for further upside.

While one would like to believe that there is more upside, we need to keep in mind that we are close to the resistance level of 6038 (mid point of 6349 & 5727) and thereafter 6100 which can act as a strong hurdle. In view of the same, I feel the risk reward ratio for long positions at higher levels is adverse and hence it is advisable to avoid fresh long positions. Existing long positions should be trailed with stop loss of 5960.

Short positions should be taken below 5960 with stop loss of 6000. On the down side, Nifty Future will find support at 5940 and 5900.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options remained almost unchanged at 0.98 as against 0.94 yesterday.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 21.12.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE :

Contrary to expectations, Nifty Future opened weak with open = Low = 5900 and than gained strength to make a high of the day at 6000 but in the last one hour gave up part of the gains to close the day at 5959 - marginally lower than the previous trading day. What is significant is that Nifty Future corrected sharply from 6000 level and this does not augur well for the coming days.

For tomorrow, one can consider going short below 5920 level with stop loss of 5950. On the down side, it will find support at 5890 - 5850. Tomorrow is an important Gann date and hence should be an eventful day for the market. Given today's rejection of Nifty Future at 6000 levels, one needs to be careful on long positions - particularly below 5850 or better still below 5890 .

Moreover, I would like to mention that if Bank Nifty breaks the recent low of 11042, it could seek the next support at 10730 or 10530 levels. This could be possible if SBI breaks recent low of 2675.

In light of the above, I would not advise long positions - at least for tomorrow.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options remained almost unchanged at 0.94 as against 0.93 on the previous trading day.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 20.12.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE:

As expected, Nifty Future closed firm on last Thursday. During the day, it made a low of 5863 and in last one hour made a sharp up move to make a high of 5980 and closed at 5967. As the close has been near the top of the week, we can expect the market to open firm on Monday.

One can consider going long with stop loss of 5920. On the higher side it will find resistance at 5985 - 6035 and final major hurdle at 6125. It will gain strength, once it moves above 6035. It is not advisable to remain short above 6035.

For tomorrow, it is advisable to consider taking short position only below 5850 with stop loss of 5890. On the down side, it will find support at 5850 and below this level weakness will accelerate as the next major support ( and the last one at that) will be 5725.

Considering the strong close and the fact that we are approaching the FNO settlement and also the end of the year, it will be better to maintain upward bias and consider short positions below 5850 only. However, if weakness is observed at higher levels near 6100, one can consider going short with strict stop loss of 6125.

Please note that Infosys is already strong (made a new 52 week high on Thursday) and now if we Reliance remains above 1065, it can help Nifty Future to test the previous high of 6349.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options decreased to 0.93 as against 1.20 on the previous trading day.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR WEEKENDED 16.12.2010

NIFTY FUTURE WEEKLY 16.12.2010

The past week ended on a strong note as market made a sharp up move in the last one hour on Thursday, but not strong enough to leave any clear cut guidance for the next week. On the weekly chart you will find that though Nifty Future made a higher bottom last week at 5797 and the week's high remained at 5985 - same as that on Monday when it made Open = High.

As Nifty Future has not been able to cross previous week's top of 6094, it appears that Nifty Future may be forming a Flag pattern. This pattern formation will get confirmed if during the next week we are not able to cross the level of 6100 on the up side or 5750 on the down side. While upside breakout will negate the flag pattern, but breakout on the downside will indicate a deeper correction - which does not look probable looking at the last week's candle.

While on the higher side, we will gather momentum only above 6125 and maybe head for 6350 levels. On the down side, the major worry sets in only below 5750.

We are now left with 10 trading session for the current calendar year. I would like to caution the readers that in even in the best case scenario of Nifty Future able to cross 6125 levels, one need not get too euphoric as the festival mood sets in.

Incidentally with the close of the current year, we will be completing the 1st decade of this century. The point I would like you to note here is that even if the year ends near the high, the market can turn around/fall at the beginning of the next year if it has to - same as in the year 2008. Hence caution at higher level is advisable.

Have a nice weekend!

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 16.12.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE :

After a steady opening, Nifty Future remained bearish but once again gathered steam to make the day's high of 5955. Thereafter, by mid session, Nifty Future once again maintained a bearish tone to make the day's low of 5873 and closed weak at 5895. Bank stocks took lot of beating (about 3%) to make a new weekly low of 11177. On the EOD chart, I have marked the 350 points range in which the Nifty Future has been moving for the past one month.

For tomorrow, fresh short position should be taken only below 5850. On the down side, it will find support at 5800 and 5725.

Long position should be taken with the stop loss of 5850. On the higher side it will find resistance at 5940 and 5985 and 6035. Please do not remain short above 5940 as tomorrow is the last trading day for the week.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options increased to 1.20 as against 1.07 yesterday.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 15.12.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE:

In today's trading, Nifty Future opened firm and remained in narrow range with upward bias. However, enthusiasm expected after a firm close in US markets was missing. The day's high and low are 5970 and 5906. The day's close was at 5960 - near the high of the day, suggesting strong opening tomorrow.

While the Nifty Future is moving up, the momentum is lacking as on the EOD chart we have not been able to form higher bottom and higher top, where as the same has been achieved on the 30 min chart and helping the slow up move.

For tomorrow, one can consider going long with stop loss of 5940. It will face resistance at 5985 (remember yesterday it formed Op=Hi=5985) and major resistance at 6000 and 6035.

It would be prudent to liquidate long position at this levels as it may not be possible to cross this level at the 1st attempt.

A word of caution will not be out of place here that, if Nifty Future turns around from about 6000 levels it would have formed the Right Shoulder on the EOD chart with neckline at about 5727 levels. If for any reason this neckline is broken on the downside, we end up with a target of about 5350. While it may be difficult to believe this today, a trader must keep this in mind, for protecting long positions with a tight stop loss.

Short position may be taken below 5940 with stop loss of 5965. On the down side, it will find support at 5900 and 5850. Panic may set in below 5850.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options increased marginally to 1.07 as against 1.02 yesterday.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 14.12.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE :

Today's session opened with a freak trade of Open = High = 5985 but was quite steady in the first hour but suddenly saw a down move of almost 85 points in 30 mins thereafter to make the day's low of 5797. However in the second half it once again saw a sharp up move to close the day at 5933 near the real high of 5940 in the last 30 min of trade. While those who have been able to catch the swings both the sides correctly would have nothing to complain, but for a day trader to make money with this kind of sharp moves both the sides will need swiftness to change the view and loads of luck on his side.

The stock markets being true symbol of capitalism one can not complain about the sharp moves either side, but evidently it does suggest that "All is not well".

The good part of the fall was that the it did not break the previous day's low and took about turn (may be due to short covering) to close near the high of the day - once again giving hopes of the continuation of the up move.

For tomorrow, one needs to be extra cautious as we are now approaching the major hurdle around 6000 levels. If it does manage to come around this level, one can go short once Nifty Future remains below 5970 with stop loss of 6000 or safer still 6035. The up move will look good on the charts only if it is able to go past or better still - close above 6035 levels. Considering the sharpness of today's fall one needs to trail the long positions not with mental stop losses but by keeping actual stop losses in to the trading terminals (and pray that the move is not so sharp to jump the stop loss levels). It is best to avoid long positions at higher levels.

Short position may be considered below 5890 with stop loss of 5941. On the down side, it will find support at 5850 and panic can set in below 5800.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options increased to 1.02 as against 0.92 on the previous trading day.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS - as the wisdom suggests that "money saved is money earned".

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 13.12.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE :

As expected, Nifty Future saw a sharp up move - albeit after making a new low of 5748 but could not cross the previous day's high and hence it does not give decisive turn around signal. On the positive side it has not broken the previous low of 5727 and hence this up move may gather steam to go up to 6000 subject to clearing resistances on the way up. Support from US markets being already there and good IIP numbers may induce more people to do "bottom fishing". Whether the market has made double bottom or is in the process of making a right shoulder on the EOD chart and then fall up to 5350 will get confirmed once we test 6000 on the upside and see if Nifty Future is able to get back in to the yellow shaded area on the EOD chart attached. Oscillators remain in the sell mode on the weekly chart and hence I do not believe it will have strength to cross 6000 level and hence this up move (if it manages to cross 5925) should terminate at that level.

For tomorrow, one can consider going long with 5850 as a stop loss. On higher side it will face hurdle at 5925 and major hurdle at 6000 levels.

Fresh short position should be considered only below 5850 with stop loss of 5890. On the down side, it will find support at previous low of 5725 and thereafter at 5675.

Similarly up move in Bank Nifty should be considered as a pull back which can at best take it up to 12000 with hurdles on the way up as given in TP grid.

Put Call Ratio on index options decreased to 0.92 as against 0.96 on the previous day.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR WEEKENDED 10.12.2010

NIFTY FUTURE WEEKLY

NIFTY FUTURE:

During the last week, Nifty Future maintained downward bias after making weekly high of 6094 on Monday and weekly low of 5748 yesterday (range of 346 points or 5.8%). The good part is that the previous low of 5727 is not yet broken - thus giving hopes that the up move will continue as yesterday's low can be considered as a double bottom. The confusion remains whether yesterday's low is a end of the correction or signal for a deeper connection ?

With more evidence of weakness, it would not be out of place to view the last weeks' fall in light of the bigger picture - wherein I am showing a probable right shoulder on the weekly chart (in lime green colour) for a few weeks now. On this week's chart I have shown the 21 weeks on the 'Right Shoulder starting from the recent top of 6349. From this point if we take 21 weeks on the right (or in future) it comes to sometime in May 2011.

With the recent weakness, we can say that Nifty Future seems to be going as per the above "conjecture". However, I would like to caution you that in terms of probability %, if it was 10% when I started it when Nifty future was making new high, than we are now improved to about 25%. I would consider the probability to increase substantially to about 75% if Nifty Future decisively breaks 5500 - as there are multiple supports around this level. If 5500 is to be broken, I am sure some good reasons for it will also emerge for people to change their views.

To summarise, we need to close below 5725 to seek support around 5500-5550. Break and close below 5500 to see the 4400 levels as shown on the attached chart. On the higher side we have to face strong resistance at 5925 - 6000 and 6100.

Have a nice weekend!

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 10.12.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE :

In today's trading, Nifty Future opened weak and maintained downward bias throughout the day, with last one hour seeing a panic like situation once 5850 was broken. During the day Nifty Future made a high of 5941 and low of 5757. It closed weak at 5780 and has come out of the Andrew's Pitchfork for the 1st time after 25.5.2010 as seen on the EOD chart.

Bank Nifty continued to bleed continuously for the 5th day and has made a low of 11102 - an important support level it being a mid-point of a major swing on the EOD chart.

I expect Bank Nifty to take support at this level - at least for a pullback.

When Nifty Future and Bank Nifty Future have taken such a thrashing in the past few days, it is best not to speak or even look at the so called mid-cap or momentum stocks.

While there is no denying that fall today has been quite sharp not because any such damaging event has taken place today, but more people are now feeling jittery of Nifty Future being able to sustain the up move. If you have noticed yesterday's EOD chart, I have marked the area of 6400 and 6000 in yellow shading. Please have a look at the EOD chart for today, and you will find that 6000 level looks quite far now. In any case, 6000 will now act as a major resistance on the upside.

We are now close to the previous low of 5727 and it is quite likely that Nifty Future may take support at this level. Hence it is advisable to avoid fresh short position and also square off short positions. In the event of a weak opening, at the 1st sign of market stabilising, one can consider going long with a strict stop loss of 5675. On the higher side, it will find resistance at 5850 - 5890 and strong resistance at 5925. Tomorrow also happens to be last day of the week, hence a pullback will not be out of place. If fall like today has to continue, weekly candle will go for a toss - in any case there are no events indicating to such a grim scenario - at least for now. Banks look quite promising for a pullback and 10700 should act as a good stop loss level for fresh long positions.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options decreased to 0.96 as against 1.01 yesterday.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 09.12.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE:

Contrary to expectations, Nifty Future opened weak as US markets gave up all the gains by the close. Nifty Future maintained downward bias almost through the day. During the day it made a high of 5985 and low of 5894 and closed at 5924. Bank Nifty Future got hammered for the 3rd day in a row and is now near the previous bottom made just a few days back. Short positions trailed with a stop loss of 11655.

While the market has been having a downward bias as is being mentioned here, I must caution to those who are able to short the Nifty Future or individual stocks, that we are now in multiple support zone till we are able to close below the previous low of 5725 - for Nifty Future to seek next strong support level of 5500. Hence it will be better to book profit on short positions from time to time. I would not like to miss the opportunity to once again emphasise, that TP Grid should be of great help to make money or at least to save money by not being on the wrong side of the market.

For tomorrow, short position should be taken below 5890 with stop loss of 5925. On the downside, it will find support at 5850 and 5815. I would suggest that long positions are best avoided - at least for one more day, till the market finds it bottom.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options marginally reduced to 1.01 as against 1.18 yesterday.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 08.12.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE :

In today's trading, Nifty maintained a downward bias till about mid session and made a low of 5956 and in the second half managed to show gains and made the day's high of 6022 and closed the day at 6010. With US markets performing well and considering good close for the day, we can safely expect a firm opening tomorrow and once again reviving hopes for continuation of the up move. For the second day in a row, Bank stocks remained weak and closed at the lower end of the day and lost over 6% in two days. 11655 may be used as a reference point for considering upside above it and further downside below it.

For tomorrow, while up move seems certain, one needs to be very cautious on the long positions as 6100 can once again be a hurdle and hence any long positions should be taken with that level as a reference point till it is breached on the closing basis, However, as a matter of abundant caution, short positions should keep a stop loss of 6040.

Short positions should be taken at higher levels with a stop loss of 6110. On the down side, it will find support at 5950 - 5910 - 5885 and key support at 5850 below which the fall will accelerate. In case of a weak opening, 6040 can be used as a stop loss for short positions.

Put Call Ratio of Index options marginally increased to 1.18 as against 1.07 yesterday.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 07.12.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE :

As expected, Nifty Future had a firm opening and made a high of 6094 during the first half of the day, but could not sustain at higher levels and made lower top lower bottom in the second half of the day and made a low of 5988 and closed weak at 6002. We saw a range of 106 points and that too with a weak close. Not a great thing to happen on the 1st day of the week. Those who like to understand the fall must see both the charts attached herewith.

For tomorrow, one should consider going short only below 5970 with stop loss of 6010. As shown on the 30 min chart, we have number of supports viz. 5950, 5910, 5885 and last key support of 5850. While this level looks little far off today, one needs to be cautious with long positions, as I always maintain that - while falling Newton's Law helps.

Considering the fall today, the weakness is apparent particularly in the Bank Stocks, hence I would not advise long positions at all, even in Nifty Future. However, as a matter of prudence, existing short positions should be trailed with stop loss of 6045 (Never fight the market) as weakness will accelerate only below 5900.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options decreased to 1.07 as against 1.26 on the previous trading day.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 06.12.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN/NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE:

In Friday's trading Nifty Future remained sideways through out the day and the intra day fall recovered by the end of the day to close the day/week @ 6017. It should be noted that even for the 2nd day, Nifty Future could not cross the mid point level of 6038. If it manages to clear this level tomorrow, it can take Nifty Future to the next strong resistance at 6100 due to multiple reasons shown on the EOD chart.

For tomorrow, fresh long position should be considered above 6050 with stop loss of 6000. On the higher side, it will face strong resistance at 6100 and hence it will be better to close long positions in Nifty Future as well as front line stocks. At the first weakness in hourly/30 min chart, one can consider going short with stop loss of 6125 or sell 6100/6200 call option, depending on the risk profile.

In case of weak opening (looks very unlikely), one can consider going short, below 5965 with stop loss of 6000. On the downside, it will find support at 5940 - 5910 and 5875.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options remained almost same at 1.26 as against 1.23 on the previous day.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR WEEKENDED 03.12.2010

NIFTY FUTURE WEEKENDED 03.12.2010

During the past week Nifty Future showed an upward bias as it bounced from the low of 5727 which provided strong support as can be seen on the attached chart. The week saw a range of 262 (Hi of 6039 & Lo of 5777) and closed @ 6017, near the high of the week and suggesting continuation of the up move next week.

Further up move can be expected above 6039 - which remains the midpoint as indicated earlier. However, not much should be read in this breakout as we will have to face stronger resistance at 6100 levels. I Would like to caution that possibility of new high should be considered only after Nifty Future crosses 6200 - till than we can safely consider this up move as a pullback rally from a strong support.

On the downside, key support remains @ 5800 level below which, panic like situatuions can emerge.

While the past week's up move was strong, one needs to be cautious at higher levels as oscillators continue to remain in the sell mode.

Have a nice weekend !

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 03.12.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE:

As expected, Nifty Future had a strong opening but thereafter, remained sideways throughout the day. However, once again gave a strong close and thereby suggesting a strong opening session tomorrow. To highlight the significance of the 'simple trading idea', I would like to draw your attention that today's high of 6039 was almost on the dot at the midpoint of last swing (6349+5727)/2= 6038.

Considering the strength today, as Nifty Future had a pullback only to fill the gap left in the opening session there is every possibility that Nifty Future will cross this hurdle to reach the top of 6100 which will be the more difficult one to cross. We had a 4th day rally from the recent bottom of 5727. In view of the same, I would not advise fresh long position and instead suggest that those who have risk taking capacity may go short near 6100 levels with a strict stop loss of 6135 or safer still sell 6100 or 6200 Call Option.

Those who want to play safe can sell only below 6000 with a Stop Loss of 6040. On the down side, it will find support at 5975 - 5940 and strong support at 5885.

One needs to be cautious at higher levels, considering the one way rally for the past 4 days, as well as the strong resistance 6100 level could provide.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options increased to 1.23 as against 1.06 yesterday.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 02.12.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE :

In today's trading, Nifty Future had a firm opening and continued steady rise through out the day, albeit without participation from Reliance & Infosys. The party was led by SBI, LT, TATA MOTORS etc. The movement of Nifty Future on the 30 min chart has formed a tight rising wedge. Considering the sharp rise in DOW at the time of writing this post, and also the strong close for Nifty Future today, it is obvious to expect a strong opening which will lead to break out of rising wedge on the up side, but .... you never know.

Normally the down side break out from such rising wedge are quite sharp, hence one needs to be little extra careful.

On the EOD chart you will observe that the close is right on the horizontal line which was expected to be a hurdle and as stated above, in all likelyhood we will cross this in the opening session tomorrow. However, we are now moving into the next hurdle at 6050 and 6100, the crossing of which seems difficult - at least at the first attempt. As such, in my opinion, 6050 itself should be a difficult thing to cross, particularly without the participation of Reliance & Infosys.

In view of the above, I am not suggesting fresh long positions unless one wants to take the additional risk. Moreover, we are already into 3 days of bullishness.

One can consider going short below 5950 with strict stop loss of 6000. On the downside, it will find support at 5925 and strong support at 5885.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options increased to 1.06 as against 0.82 yesterday.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 01.12.2010

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN /NIFTY FUTURE EOD / NIFTY FUTURE MONTHLY
2011 CALENDAR WITH NSE TRADING HOLIDAYS UPLOADED.
HISTORY CHECK : 10/10 BULLISH CLOSE
NIFTY FUTURE:

Though DOW recovered much of the loss by the closing, we had a weak opening and in the first half, made a low of 5777 (11 points lower than yesterday). After the mid session, it made a sharp recovery (led by Banking sector) to make a high of 5915 and closed at 5887. In view of the strong close, we can expect good opening and one can consider going long with a stop loss of 5840. On the higher side, it will find resistance at 5950 and 6000. Resistance at 6000 should be a tough nut to crack - particularly with Reliance and Infosys both not taking the lead. Thereafter we have 6040 and 6100 which will act as resistance.

Short position may be taken below 5840 with a stop loss of 5880. On the downside, it will find support at 5800. It would be better to trail your position if Nifty Future goes below 5800 - which looks unlikely looking at today's candle. For the new month, Nifty should at least do 6000 and may reverse thereafter.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options decreased to 0.82 as against 0.99 yesterday.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

PS : I have attached the Monthly chart, but have avoided making comments in this post. This has been done intentionally as it will induce the visitor to refer my noting on the chart and also see the chart to get the right impact and take an unbiased view. Whatever may be your view - its a must see and if possible keep it for future reference. Interestingly, we have 10/10 bullish close in the past 10 years. Will this time be different ? Let's keep our fingers crossed and stay tuned to the market (and not the TV channels) and don't forget to protect the trades with great care.