TURNING POINTS FOR 31.12.2009

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE:

Once again a narrow range day and has also formed lower top and lower bottom, suggesting weakness. Tomorrow being the FNO settlement day, volatility could be higher. In the 30 min chart it is within a small triangle. Please remeber that tomorrow is also last day of the month and unless market falls drastically - which is unlikely, the monthly candle doesn't look bearish.

For tomorrow, one can go short below 5145 with stop loss of 5175. On lower side it will find support @ 5120 and 5080.

One can buy Nifty Future above 5185 with Stop Loss of 5145. On higher side it will find resistance at 5225 and 5300.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options remained @ 1.06 as against yesterday's level of 1.05.

Do remember that its a FNO settlement day and hence volatility will be high, so please do not forget to use STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

P.S. : As we will be completing the first decade of the New Millennium, i plan to post some statistics which may be helpful to understand the returns from Stock Market. Do visit once you settle down after the New year Celebrations.

TURNING POINTS FOR 30.12.2009

Please download 2010 calendar with
NSE Trading Holidays marked on it.


NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE :

Yesterday's trading was one more narrow range day, where Nifty Future made a New High of 5225, but the gains got wiped out in the last hour's trading and Nifty Future closed @ 5194. Even in yesterday's trading BSE Sensex remained short of previous high by just 7 points and thus the divergence between the two indices continues. We may have to live with this type of lackluster trading till the dawn of the New year, by which time the celebrations would get over and participants will start looking at the year ahead.

For today's trading i continue to maintain Buy above 5225 with a stop loss of 5180. on higher side it will find resistance at 5295 and 5330.

One can short Nifty below 5165 with a stop loss of 5205. On lower side it will find support @ 5150 - 5120 and 5075.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options remained at 1.05 as against 1.06 on the previous trading day.

After 2 days of narrow range either side breakout could be sharp, so please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 29.12.2009

Please download 2010 Calendar with
NSE Trading Holidays marked on it.


NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD


NIFTY FUTURE:

In last Thursday's trading Nifty Future remained steady for better part of the day, but in last one hour made an upward thrust to scale a new high and also closed at new high levels, confirming the bullishness. It is important to note that similar event was not marked on BSE Sensex, thus indicating divergence, which may be due to the different mix of index components and calculation methodology. With FNO settlement this Thursday and support from US/European markets, its a forgone conclusion that markets will close the year on bullish note.

For tomorrow one should buy Nifty Future above 5225 with stop loss of 5180. On higher side it will find resistance @ 5295 and 5330. Existing long positions should be trailed with stop loss of 5170.

On lower levels one can short Nifty Future if it trades below 5150 with stop loss of 5180. On lower side it will find support at 5105 and 5055.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options increased to 1.06 as against 0.92 on the previous trading day.
Pleas do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes for the festive season,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 24.12.2009

Please down load 2010 Calendar marked with
NSE Trading Holidays.


NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN/NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE:
Today's price action is one more confirmation that Market has its own Law and can humble all of us. While I don't have an explanation for today's one sided movement except for saying that it makes sense to use STOP LOSS deligently and that's the reason that even at the risk of being monotonous I add one line every day - "Please do not forget to use STOP LOSS" which not only acts as reminder to the reader but also acts as reminder for me.
Those following TP Grid must have joined the party at an appropriate levels and that's the advantage in Rule based trading. While many of you are taking advantage of the TP Grid, I would urge the skeptics to try it out by monitoring Nifty Future and am sure they will see merit in what i am uploading every day.
Now what?
While today's price movement was one sided without even an intra day correction, I would like to wait for one more day for confirmation that the market is in the mood to make a new top. While the close is near the high of the day so it leaves little doubt that we will have a firm opening tomorrow and Nifty Future could make a new high. In the unfortunate event that market - for what ever reasons takes a U turn, then it will have serious implications as it would have made a triple top and reversed.
On the 30 min chart, i have shown the last candle touching a resistance level and we will have to see if market reverses from there tomorrow. The first signal for bearishness should be taken when Nifty goes below 5070. One can go short below 5050 with stop loss of 5075. The fall will accelerate below 4990 and in that case it will be better to trail the short position.
Put Call Ratio of Index Option remained almost unchanged at 0.92 as against 0.95 yesterday.
What ever may be your view please do not trade without STOP LOSS.
With Best Wishes,

Kettan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 23.12.2009

Please down load 2010 calendar with
NSE Trading Holidays marked on it.


NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE:

Today's trading range, probably was the narrowest range in the recent times and thus gave very few trading opportunities in Nifty Future.

As expected, on the back of strong US markets, Nifty Future opened firm but remained within 30 points range for the whole day and closed firm - near the high of the day, mainly due to the short covering by the intra day traders, who were short during the day.

We may see firm opening tomorrow, but there are many hurdles on the way up, with 5050 being the toughest one. I would continue to advise going short at higher levels up to 5050 with a stop loss of 5075. It is quite likely that Nifty Future may come up to the Trend Line (in Blue) shown in EOD chart attached herewith. There after the down move may continue. Once 4937 is broken, it will find support @ 4900 and 4865.

I would like to add that Dow is still looking firm as it remains above the trend line, which will be broken once the Dow slides below 10300. This weakness may then trigger continuation of our downward movement.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options increased to 0.95 as against 0.81 on the previous day.

Please do not forget to use STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 22.12.2009

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE:
In today's trading Nifty Future opened weak and continued to remain so throughout the day. During the day it made a low of 4937 and closed weak at 4949. Another notable feature for the day was that Nifty Future has filled up the gap near 4960 levels - the first and the nearest GAP.

While Nifty Future continues to remain weak, it may show a bounce due to oversold condition on intra day 30 min chart and on the back of strength in US markets. This up move may be possible if Nifty Future is able to cross 4966 and it can go up to 5000 or at best 5050. Hence 4966 should be considered as a stop loss for existing short positions in Nifty Future. Those holding 4900/5000 Puts should continue holding the same.

On higher levels one can sell at 5000 and above with stop loss of 5051. One should avoid going short at lower levels.

Once again Put Call Ratio of Index Option remained at 0.81 as against 1.04 on the previous trading day.

Please do not forget to use STOP LOSS as market can turn quite volatile in the fight of the Bulls and the Bears.

With Best Wishes,
Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 21.12.2009

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE:

In Friday's trading Nifty future remained inside very narrow range during the first half of the day. In the second half, it went below 5000 with heavy volumes to make a low of 4972 and close of 4986. The day's close should be considered weak as it is near the low of the day and is below 5000.

For tomorrow fresh selling should be done below 4971 with stop loss of 5010. Nifty Future will find support at 4920 - 4865 and 4800. Breaking of 4787 will signal end of the post election trend which started with lot of euphoria.

It is likely that market can go up to 5070-5080. At this level it would be better to go short with stop loss of 5105. It will be better to concentrate on buying 4900 & 4800 put options although there are only 7 trading days to FNO settlement.

While all the readers may be familiar with Newton's Law and its effect on the market, i feel the impact will get accentuated once Nifty Future breaks 4800 levels. while we are just at the threshold of beginning the down side move, i would advise restrain on the temptation to buy until the market finds it bottom in the coming days.

Just to give you a reference point, i will draw your attention to column C & G in the TP Grid, which are showing Nifty Future level of 3858 as a good support level in the coming weeks and let me remind you that nothing is impossible in this market. For a quick recap, on the EOD chart i have shown arrows indicating the gaps that have to be filled in the times to come.

It continues to surprise me that PCR remains at just 1.04 as against 0.92 on the previous day. The situation was different in the earlier month when PCR used to be over 1.30 for days in a row. The current situation indicates that the traders have become more confident of the sharp recovery and new highs being scaled after every small dip for the last few months, but things could be different this time and the same is not reflected in the PCR as yet.

What ever be the case, make sure you protect your interest with judicious use of STOP LOSS.
With Best Wishes,
Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 18.12.2009

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE:

Although Nifty Future managed to stay within the normal trading range, intra day volatility was high. Another notable feature for the day was that Nifty Future did not break 5000 levels and thus kept the hopes for the bulls alive. Despite effort, it could not cross yesterday's high and closed @ 5036. As anticipated, MACD has today entered the -ve territory (below zero) and thus bearishness is confirmed. Infosys remains the lone torch bearer for the bulls.
For tomorrow, short position should be created below 5000 with stop loss of 5050. On the way down, it will find support @ 4920 & 4865. If you share the bearish view, it will be better to buy 4900 Put Option which is available at about Rs. 50/- and hold it till expiry. In any case it will be prudent not to make fresh buying unless there is significant correction.

On higher side 5100 looks like a strong resistance level.

It will be interesting to note that, although charts are indicating bearishness below 5000 levels, the same is not reflected in the Put Call Ratio of Index Options which was lower @ 0.92 as against 1.14 yesterday. This may be a good reason to consider my bearish view with caution.

I am sure, those following TP GRID will have nothing to worry as long as they follow it as per the rules. For their benefit, i will clarify here that as long as CMP is below H & L the scrip/Nifty should be considered bearish and any long position is to their detriment and hence if at all u have compulsions for bullsih view, either protect it with buying a Put or have a strict stop loss.

Whatever may be your view, the time to protect your wrong (long) positions seems to have started now and hence please do not forget to use STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 17.12.2009

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

FOR BETTER UNDERSTANDING OF THE MARKET PLEASE SPEND SOME TIME STUDYING THE ATTACHED CHARTS, I AM SURE IT WILL BE WORTH YOUR FEW MINUTES.

NIFTY FUTURE:

In today's trade Nifty Future opened flat and made a new low but did not go below 5000 and then went up to 5072 and closed @ 5041. Infosys continued to support Nifty or in other words has not yet let Nifty down! Nifty Future continues to make lower top and lower bottom. Even the EOD candle does not enthuse any confidence that the down move is over. Another significant feature for today's trading was that Nifty Future has taken support on the trend line on the EOD chart, which when broken (tomorrow?) will initiate a major down fall. This is also suggested by MACD - if it starts trading below 0 (zero) line, which can happen with one more negative day.

For tomorrow, it will be better to go short below 5000 with stop loss of 5045 or if Nifty Future trades near 5100 levels one can go short with stop loss of 5150. On down side it will find support at 4950 - 4900 and 4850.

I continue to maintain that it is better to avoid long position until Nifty Future is at significant lower levels. I have always believed that market gives chance to escape unhurt if one studies the chart and acts accordingly. I think that phase will be over once Nifty start trading below 5000 levels.

Tomorrow can be a big range day so please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

Put Call Ratio of Index Option has increased today to 1.14 as against 1.05 yesterday. At least now the charts and the PCR look to be in confirmity with each other.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 16.12.2009

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE:

As expected Nifty Future opened weak and moved in a narrow range during the 1st half of the day. In the 2nd half of the day, Nifty Future fell to a low of 5017 and closed at 5031. Banking sector was a major looser for the day.

In view of the close being near the low of the day, it is likely that we will have a weak opening tomorrow. It must be noted that Nifty has multiple support in the form of Trend Line and achieving of Triangle Target near 4985 region. Hence, for those who are short today, may do well to cover the short position at these levels as Nifty Future may have a dead cat bounce which may take it to 5100 levels.

For tomorrow one can consider buying Nifty Future for intra day trade if it trades above 5025 with Stop Loss as day's low. At higher levels, Nifty Future will find resistance at 5075 - 5090 and 5110. Expect tomorrow to be a wide range day and hence please do not forget to use STOP LOSS. Nifty Future can be sold near 5100 levels with stop loss of 5150.

Although, Nifty Future is looking weak on charts, it is not getting reflected in the Put Call Ratio of Index Options at 1.05 as against 1 yesterday. This is in stark contrast to the beginning of the month when PCR was above 1.25 consistently.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 15.12.2009

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

TP GRID FOR MCX/NCDEX WILL BE POSTED BY 11.00 AM

NIFTY FUTURE:

In today's trading, Nifty Future opened steady and went up to 5167 and then went down to 5090 in second half of the day's trading and has closed near the day's low suggesting weak opening for tomorrow. But for Infosys making a new high, the fall would have been much worst.

As it happens every time, market will gain strength due to short covering if at all it trades above 5140. However, i would not advise initiating long trades, till such time we see a significant correction.

Tomorrow, it will be better to initiate fresh short position in Nifty Future if it trades below 5075 with Stop Loss of 5110. On lower side it will find support @ 5040 - 5000 and 4950 which can offer some good support and bounce can be expected.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options remained at 1.00 as against 1.08 on the previous trading day.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 14.12.2009

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE:

On Friday Nifty (spot) made a new 52 week High but Nifty Future could not register a new high as it was trading on discount. Whatever this type of anomaly may mean, the market gave up the gains immdeiately after good IIP numbers were announced. Another notable feature for Friday's trading was that MACD which was flat for the past few days has broken downwards, indicating weakness in the coming days. On the EOD chart attached i have shown a triangle which too indicates some decisive action in the coming week.

On Monday, one can go short with stop loss of 5170, in case the market opens near Friday's closing levels. On lower side, it will find support near 5080 - 5040 - 5000 and 4950.

In view of the steep fall on Friday, it is better not to make any fresh buying. Buying 5000 Put Option can be considered as a safe bet as the risk is predefined.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options increased to 1.08 from previous day's level of 0.98.

Please do not trade without Stop Loss.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 11.12.2009

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE:
In yesterday's trading, Nifty Future after testing the lower trend line of the triangle during the 1st hour of trade, made a sharp up move to the upper trend line of the triangle, but could not decisively break out of the triangle. Yesterday's price movement has indicated an upward bias and coupled with higher levels in US markets, probability for upward breakout is higher.
In today's trading, with an aggressive view Nifty Future can be bought above 5135 with stop loss of 5100. On higher side it will face resistance at 5185 - 5225 and 5250.
One can sell Nifty Future below 5070 with stop loss of 5105. On lower levels it will find support at 5045 - 5000 and 4950.
Put Call Ratio of Index Options declined to 0.98 from yesterday's level of 1.07 and thereby confirming upward bias.
Please do not trade with out STOP LOSS.
With Best Wishes,
Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 10.12.2009

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD

PLEASE SEE THE CHARTS - IT WILL BE WORTH YOUR TIME.

NIFTY FUTURE:

In today's trading, neither did Nifty Future break yesterday's low, nor did it break the high. It just languished for the whole day within 60 points range. As can be seen on the 30 min charts, it is within a triangle, the breakout from which will take it by 100 points in the direction of the break out. Even PCR data is not helping me to hazard a guess.

For tomorrow's trading, only the aggressive traders should go long if Nifty Future crosses above 5155 with a stop loss of 5125. As such my hesitancy for long position is due to the hurdles it will face on its way up. 5185 and 5225 will be major hurdles.

On down side one can go short below 5070 with Stop Loss of 5105. It will find support @ 5040 - 5000 and 4950. One should not rush to close the short position if Nifty Future goes below 5040.

Put Call Ratio of Index options remained almost unchanged @ 1.07 as against 1.06 yesterday.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 09.12.2009

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE:

In today's trading, Nifty Future opened firm but remained side ways and weak in the first half of the day. In the second half it took u turn and sharply rose by about 100 points in the last one hour. It even closed firm near the high of the day.

Although the rise has has been sharp, i would not advise going long at this stage, as oscillators on EOD chart, do not show strength. Moreover, weakness in US/European markets can also influence the sentiment tomorrow. On higher side Nifty can go up to 5225.

In light of weak global markets, if at all Nifty Future goes up to 5225, it would be a good contrarian trade, to buy 5000 Put Option, which should be available around Rs. 50/-. Short position should be taken only below 5100 with stop loss of 5140. It will find support @ 5075 - 5045 - 5000 and 4950.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options remained at 1.06 as against 1.04 yesterday.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 08.12.2009

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE EOD


NIFTY FUTURE:

In today's trading Nifty Future continued making lower top and lower bottom, indicating weakness. Moreover, Nifty future has closed near the low of the day, suggesting weak opening for tomorrow.

For tomorrow, Nifty Future will gain strength only above 5135 and hence one should not buy it unless it is at some support point at lower levels.

Nifty Future may be sold below 5040 with stop loss of 5077 or at higher levels near 5110 with stop loss of 5145. On lower side it will find support @ 5000 and 4950. At 4950 one can buy for a pull back to 5000. Break of Trend Line - near 4950 can take Nifty Future back to 4500 levels.

Considering that for 2nd day Nifty Future has continued lower top-lower bottom formation, it is advisable to be cautious on all long positions by keeping a suitable STOP LOSS.

Put Call Ratio of Index option is at 1.04 as against 1.11 on the previous trading day. While this indicates that market expects bottoming out, the same is not supported by the charts.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 07.12.2009

NIFTY FUTURE EOD / NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN

NIFTY FUTURE:

In Friday's trading Nifty Future opened weak and made a low of 5085 and thereafter went up to 5169 and in the second half made a new low of 5078 and closed at 5116. It has started the process of forming lower top and lower bottom and there by suggesting weakness. Even the candles on EOD chart do not enthuse confidence to go long, unless market corrects a bit and regains strength. It is important to note that the same situation is faced with Dow as it is not able to cross 10500 levels despite making 5 attempts.

In view of the above, it will be better to be cautious so far as long positions are concerned. Tomorrow, new short position should be taken below 5070 with stop loss of 5105. It will find support @ 5040 and 5000. The support thereafter @ 4950 should be considered strong as it would have filled a gap left some days back. It would be better to buy Nifty Future near 4950 levels with stop loss of 4900.

On higher side Nifty Future will gain strength above 5150 and it will be better not to remain short above this level.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options was at 1.11 as against 1.18 on previous trading day.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher

TURNING POINTS FOR 04.12.2009

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN


NOTE: TP GRID FOR MCX/NCDEX WILL BE UPLOADED AFTER 10.30 TOMORROW.

POSTED ON 4.12.2009 8.00 AM

NIFTY FUTURE:
In last trading session, Nifty Future opened firm and made a new high at 5192. It is pertinent to note, that although Nifty Future did make a new 52 week high, Nifty Spot @ 5181 has remained just one point short of the previous high of 5181.95. Thus, as of now Nifty has done a double top and retraced. The candlestick for the day is also a shooting star indicating bearishness if Nifty breaks yesterday's low.

In today's trading one can sell Nifty Future below 5090 with stop loss of 5120. On lower side it will find support @ 5075 - 5040 - 5000 and 4950.

Buying Nifty should be considered only after Nifty future finds support around 4950 levels with stop loss of 4900 and that too for a pullback. Below 4980, due to the break of Trend Line shown in the Nifty Future 30 min chart, weakness will accelerate.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options was at 1.18 as against 1.29 yesterday.

Please do not trade without Stop Loss.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 3.12.2009

NIFTY FUTURE EOD NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN

NIFTY FUTURE:

In today's trading Nifty Future opened firm but could not cross 5165 level for the whole day. It traded in 50 points range though out the day. Nifty Future has touched this level for the third time but could not cross this level in view of the hurdles shown on the chart. Let us hope it crosses this level tomorrow, failing which it may come down to 5075 where it can find support.

Tomorrow, one should avoid buying Nifty Future at higher levels and instead, if Nifty Future takes support at 5075 levels, one can buy with stop loss of 5040. On higher side it will find resistance at 5100 and 5165-5185 levels. On lower levels, it will find support @ 5000 - 4975 and 4930 levels.

Tomorrow selling Nifty future should be avoided and instead it will be better to buy at lower levels indicated above and sell at higher levels.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options was @ 1.29 as against 1.49 yesterday.

Please do not forget to use STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 2.12.2009

NIFTY FUTURE EOD NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN
NIFTY FUTURE:

In today's trading, Nifty Future steadily increased to go up to the earlier high of 5139. It closed near the high of the day, suggesting that tomorrow it should open firm and hopefully cross the earlier high of 5169.

For tomorrow, if the opening is near today's close, one can buy with stop loss of 5100. On higher side it has tough resistance @ 5165 and 5185. Close above this level can take Nifty much higher and it will be prudent not to remain short. At higher levels, Nifty Future will find resistance @ 5220.

It is better not to go short, unless Nifty trades below 5065 with Stop Loss of 5100. On down side it will find support @ 5000 & 4935.

This is the same Nifty which was waiting to go below 4800 and now is on the threshold of making a new high. In one of the post last week, i had mentioned whether we are getting ready for the last leg of the rally? Albeit late by a week, the time has come when Nifty Future is poised to take the leap. Whether one should join the party or take this opportunity to get off the bull train will largely depend on the greed quotient of each investor. Its time we check our own greed quotient.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options increased to 1.47 as against 1.18 yesterday.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 01.12.2009

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE:

In yesterday's trading Nifty Future continued its up move to test the upper level (5075) above which i had indicated that one should not remain short. If this level is not breached today it should be considered little seriously and it will be better to be light in long positions.

For today long positions can be considered with Stop Loss of 5000. On higher side 5075 - 5100 - 5150 will act as hurdle.

Nifty Future can be sold below 5000 with stop loss of 5040. On down side it will find support at 4965 and 4935 from which it can get a bounce as yesterday's gap would be filled. Weakness will accelerate below 4900.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options remained at 1.18 as against 1.20 yesterday.

Please do not forget to use STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.