TURNING POINTS FOR 30.11.2009

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE:
In Friday's trading, negative impact of Dubai problem continued and Nifty future opened with a downside gap. By mid-day, it made a low of 4801 and made a sharp recovey to go upto 4960 and close at 4946. The only hope for the bullish view is the sharp upmove from 4800 levels.
For tomorrow's trading, Nifty Future will face resistance at 4970 and major resistance at 5010 levels, as multiple trend lines will act as resistance till Nifty Futue crosses 5025. Buy position can be considered if Nifty Future opens at about 4940 levels, with a stop loss of 4900 level. The levels referred above - 4970, 5010, 5025 and 5050 will act as resisitance levels. It is not advisable to remain short if Nifty is able to cross 5075.
Short position can be considered only if Nifty Future trades below 4865, with stop loss of 4900. On the down side it will find support at 4800 and 4765.
Put Call Ratio of Index options remained unchanged at 1.20.
Please do not forget to use STOP LOSS.
With Best Wishes,
Ketan Asher.
Camp: Ahmedabad.

TURNING POINTS FOR 27.11.2009

NIFTY FUTURE EOD NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN

NIFTY FUTURE:

In the first half of today's trading Nifty Future traded in a narrow range with a bearish bias and after noticing weakness in European markets, it fell almost 75 points in one hour. The European markets were weak as Dubai has delayed (not defaulted) its debt payments. This shook investor confidence and resulted in weakness in global markets and we followed suit. We had last day of F & O settlement, which only added to the volatility. One blessing in disguise is that US markets are closed today.

The positive feature, was that as indicated in the Nifty Future EOD chart, it made a bottom on the trend line and closed above 5000.

For tomorrow, if bearishness is to continue, it is better to go short only if low of 4978 is broken, with a stop loss of 5010. It will find support at 4937 and 4900. Thereafter, it will find support at 4800 levels.

As a matter of abundant caution, It is better to buy Nifty only if it goes above 5075 or on Monday, after the implications of Dubai problem are clear. On higher side Nifty Future will face resistance at 5100 - 5150 and 5185.

While in one day everything looks gloomy, i would like to remind the readers, that if tomorrow Nifty Future closes above 5075, the bullishness can return, since today's correction is not even 1/3 correction from 4534 low and 5139 high, hence it will be too premature to call off the rally.

Put Call ratio of Index options was at 1.20 as against 1.16 yesterday.

Please do not forget to put Stop Loss.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 26.11.2009

NIFTY FUTURE EOD NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN

NOTE : Due to paucity of time, i will not be analysing individual scrips. Those readers referring to individual scrips should refer to the TP Grid as it will serve their purpose of getting major trend change points.

From now on, i will post my view only on NIFTY FUTURE and also post the TP Grid on daily basis. Hopefully, this change will enable me to upload my post by 10 p.m.

Inconvenience to the readers is regretted.

NIFTY FUTURE:

During the day Nifty Future made a new high to 5139 but shed some gains by the end of the day to close @ 5108 which is higher than previous day.

Although the gains have been small for the past 3 days, market looks steady. Another important feature fot the day is that Bank Nifty and FMCG Index look quite strong.

In the event of weak opening, Nifty Future can come down till 5040 to take support @ 50% level and a trend line as shown in 30 min chart. In absence of any specific negative indications, i will continue to maintain positive bias and suggest buying Nifty Future around 5040 with stop loss of 5000. On higher side Nifty will face resistance at 5150 and 5185.

Short position should be taken only below 4990 with stop loss of 5030, although i see remote possibility of this event.

Put Call Ratio of Index Option is at 1.33 as against 1.29 yesterday.

Tomorrow being a FNO settlement can be a volatile day, so please do not forget to use STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 25.11.2009

Charts: SBI - SAIL - RELIANCE

Charts: MARUTI - ICICI BANK - NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN / NIFTY FUTURE WEEKLY(as mentioned in y/day's post)

NIFTY FUTURE:

In today's trading Nifty Future did not continue the up move (as expected) and instead retraced upto 38.2% to make a low of 5050 and closed @ 5087. EOD candle still does not look bearish, but tomorrow if Nifty Future breaks the low of 5050, it is likely that it will test 5025 and 5000.
For tomorrow's trading it is better to make fresh buying only above 5120 with stop loss of 5080. On higher side it will face resistance @ 5150 and 5185.

I would not advise any short postion and instead it will be better to consider buying if Nifty Future retraces to 5025 - 5000 levels with stop loss of about 40 points.
Put Call Ratio of Index Options marginally increased to 1.29 as against 1.21 yesterday.
Please do not forget to put STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 24.11.2009

Charts: SBI - SAIL - RELIANCE

Charts: MARUTI - ICICI BANK - NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN
NIFTY FUTURE :
In today's trading Nifty Future did open firm and went up, mainly on account of Reliance. After the initial high, it remained largely sideways but firm and closed near the high of the day. Thus it can safely be assumed that tomorrow's opening session would be good too.

Considering Dow's New high today, we can expect to cross the high of 5165 with a target of 5185. Above this level, we will have to contend with major resistance @ 5350.

Nifty Future can be bought with stop loss of 5075 for the higher targets.

The question of going short will arise only if Nifty Future is to go below 5070 with stop loss of 5100. Although this situation is unlikely with Reliance making a strong move today.

Are we getting ready for the last leg of this rally?

On close scrutiny of Weekly chart (will post tomorrow), you will find that we are now entering the zone when Nifty had major fall in two weeks of Jan 2008. It is safe to assume, that even while going up we may have a swift move up (exactly reverse of the fall) and will do the old levels ( read 6336) in a jiffy. I would like to remind the readers the old dictum : Sell the rallies, if you believe that the rise which is largely due to stimulus, may eventually fail and if you are sitting on cash you can support the market at appropriate lower levels.

What i am referring here is to reducing the long position and selling on delivery basis around 5500+ levels and not suggesting any shorts at current levels. You will do well not to fight the trend.
Put Call Ratio of Index Options is @ 1.21 as against 1.10 on the previous day.

Please do not forget to use STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

PS: Inordinate delay in today's post is deeply regretted.

TURNING POINTS FOR 23.11.2009

Charts: SBI - SAIL - RELIANCE

Charts: MARUTI - ICICI BANK - NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN

NIFTY FUTURE:
In Friday's trading, Nifty Future made a sharp up move as expected. However, as Reliance did not participate wholeheartedly, it could not close above earlier high of 5083. Nonetheless, the move was good enough to keep the hopes alive for the bulls.

Tomorrow, fresh long position should be taken with stop loss of 5040. On higher side, Nifty Future will find resistance at 5150 & 5185.

Short positions should be considered only below 5000 with stop loss of 5040, although i do not expect that situation to arise.

With FNO settlement just few days away, the bull run may continue and possibility of making a new high has improved with the sharpness with which Nifty Future changed the direction.

In line with the improvement in market sentiment, Put Call Ratio of Index Options reduced to 1.10 as against 1.32 on the previous day.

Please do not forget to use the STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 20.11.2009

Charts : SBI - SAIL - RELIANCE

Charts: MARUTI - ICICI BANK - NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN

NIFTY FUTURE:

In today's trading, Nifty Future opened at yesterday's level and traded in a narrow range with downward bias. In the second half of the day, it broke 5000 levels and took support at 4963, before showing recovery upto 5000 and closed @ 4986. At least for today, Nifty Future has taken support on the trend line, as indicated yesterday.

Tomorrow, long position can be taken above 5010, with stop loss of 4970. on higher side, it will find resistance at 5030 and 5055. It is not advisable to remain short above 5050.

As i expect Nifty Future to take support at 4950 levels, i am not recommending short position. However, below 4950, it will find suppot @ 4875-4900 levels.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options was at 1.32 as against 1.50 on the previous day.

Please do not trade wtihout stop loss.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 19.11.2009

Charts : SBI -SAIL - RELIANCE

Charts: MARUTI - ICICI BANK - NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN
NIFTY FUTURE:

Today was one more narrow trading range day, when Nifty Future traded within yesterday's range - may be due to lack of any triggers for moving decisively on either side. The highlight for today's trading was INFOSYS making a new all time High/52 Week High and also closing above the earlier high, thereby confirming that all is not lost for the bulls. I find it difficult to believe that when Infosys makes a new all time high/52 Week High, the market is going to tank the next day. Another interesting feature - once again a case for bulls, is the 'pennant' pattern in Bank Nifty as well as in SBI. I guess this is enough for the Bull case.

Tomorrow, if Nifty goes below 5000, it may create panic like situation as all are aware of this logical support. However, please note that on the EOD chart there is Trend Line Support @ 4970 which can act as a support/trigger for a sharp up move in light of the above 2 factors going in favour of Bulls.

Although one can go short below this level with stop loss of 5045, and if Nifty Future is found taking support @ 4970 levels one should be quick to book profits. On lower levels 4950 and 4900 will also provide support.

Just like today, it is better to keep the buy position trigger above 5085 with stop loss of 5040. On higher side, it will face resistance @ 5100 - 5150 and 5185.

Put Call Ration of Index Options was at 1.50 as against 1.22 yesterday, may be because of narrow trading range and traders trying to protect their long positions, by buying Nifty puts.

Whether you agree with the above analysis or not, please do not trade without appropriate STOP LOSS levels.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

Words of Wisdom

The direction we are facing,

has a lot to do with our destination.

TURNING POINTS FOR 18.11.2009

Charts: SBI - SAIL - RELIANCE

Charts: MARUTI - ICICI BANK - NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN
NIFTY FUTURE:

In today's trading, Nifty Future opened flat, ignoring the good clues from US markets. During the day, it went down to a low of 5006 and in the process filled up the gap left yesterday. In the last 2 hours Nifty Future once again had a sharp up move to close near the day's open. The EOD candle looks positive as there was a sharp up move, that too without breaking 5000 levels. Infosys helped to stem the fall, by rising about 2% in an otherwise weak market. The only negative for the day was that Nifty Future did not break yesterday's high and thus has done lower bottom and lower top.

For tomorrow's trading, fresh long position should be taken only if Nifty future trades above 5085 with Stop Loss of 5050. On higher side Nifty Future will face resistance at 5100 and 5150.

In view of the pull back today, Nifty Future should be considered weak only below 5000 and short position can be taken below this level with stop loss of 5045. On lower side Nifty Future will find support at 4950.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options was lower @ 1.22 as against 1.41 yesterday.
Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

Words of Wisdom
We do not see things as they are, but as we are.

TURNING POINTS FOR 17.11.2009

Charts : SBI - SAIL - RELIANCE

Charts : MARUTI - ICICI BANK - NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTU FUTURE 30 MIN
NIFTY FUTURE:

Today's trading was rather insipid from day traders' point of view with Nifty Future - after opening with a gap, moved in a fairly narrow range compared to the present range of about 100 points almost every day. May be there was a divine guidance to our Nifty that Dow will be making a new 52 week High after we close and now it is but natural to expect, that we will have a firm opening tomorrow.

In the recent past market has often reminded us, that forget the fundamentals but focus on the inherent strength of the market and trade accordingly. Those who have cared to follow the TP Grid will know that bearishness is quite far off with H at 4654 and hence will think only Teji. I would reiterate, that if u want tension free trading, please follow/refer TP Grid.

For tomorrow, bearishness should be considered only below 5025 and if we have a gap up opening as anticipated, first sign of weakness will be below 5050. This will also be the point where one can trail existing long position.

On higher side Nifty Future will find resistance at 5100 and thereafter there may be some resistance at the old top of 5168 levels. i would like to caution those who are thinking of going long after the previous top is broken, that as we go higher (towards 5500), the risk reward ratio is very much against the new buyer. To that extent, those who have bought at lower levels will have to just trail the profits. As it always happens the common man will start getting in overdrive as the media starts flashing New Highs and ultimately he is the one who bells the cat every time.

Put Call Ratio of Index Option was @ 1.41 as against 1.36 on the previuos day.

Expect tomorrow to be a wide range day and please do not forget to use STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.