TURNING POINTS FOR 30.10.09

Charts: SBI - SAIL - RELIANCE

Charts: MARUTI - ICICI BANK - NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE EOD
NIFTY FUTURE:

Today Nifty Future opened with a downside gap and made a low near 4756 and thereafter filled up gap and made an attempt to go up. In the last one hour it washed out all the gains made from the day's low and made a new low @ 4748 . Being FNO settlement day it was expected to be a volatile day and it happened that way.

What next?

In my opinion this correction - albeit too fast, will offer a good opportunity, to those who have sold at higher levels and also to those who had got left out of this big run. Those buying on delivery basis should start buying front line stocks, in small quantity, so that even if Nifty Future goes down to 4500 level one can buy some more. The good part of this week's correction is that, with only one more day to go for completion of the month, it has not broken previous months' low of 4571.

For the past two days, i have been suggesting buy trades, as 4700-4730 level can offer very good support and there is a good possibility that market can suddenly start a pullback rally.

Tomorrow one can consider buying Nifty Future above 4840 with Stop Loss of 4800. On higher levels it will find resistance @ 4865 - 4900 and 4950.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options, marginally increased to 1.06 from yesterday's level of 0.93

While it is a good opportunity for delivery based buying, day traders should not forget to use STOP LOSS.

With Best wishes,

Ketan Asher.

Words of Wisdom

Nothing great was ever achieved without enthusiasm.

TURNING POINTS FOR 29.10.09

Charts: SBI - SAIL - RELIANCE

Charts: MARUTI - ICICI BANK - NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN
NIFTY FUTURE:
In today's trading Nifty Future took support @ 4792 and saw a sharp recovery that did not sustain and at close it formed a 'Doji' candle for the day, indicating indecisiveness and thus leaving a possibility for a downside tomorrow.

Tomorrow's trading should mainly be influenced by Reliance results which are normally announced after the close of the market. This coupled with FNO settlement day should increase the volatility. Considering Reliance close today, i am inclined to suggest that today's low should hold tomorrow with a remote possibility of Nifty Future going down to 4765 levels (refer Nifty Future EOD chart) - depending on US markets tonight.

Tomorrow, it will better to consider buying Nifty Future above 4840 with Stop Loss of 4790. On higher side Nifty Future will find resistance @ 4865 - 4900 and major resistance around 4925 level. In the best case scenario, Nifty Future can go up to 5000. Buying should be done only for trading purpose as market may come down after FNO settlement.
Put Call Ratio of Index Options has after almost a month seen a level below 1 - 0.93 as against 1.02 on the previous day. This too suggests that market participants expect a bounce from this level.
Please do not forget to put STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

Words of Wisdom

We do not see things as they are, but as we are.

TURNING POINTS FOR 28.10.2009

Charts: SBI - SAIL - RELIANCE

Charts: MARUTI - ICICI BANK - NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN
NIFTY FUTURE:

In the opening trades, Nifty Future opened with a downside gap and took support @ 4933. After the announcement of Credit Policy, the market cracked led by Realty and Bank stocks loosing between 5 to 10%. As 4900 levels of Nifty Future was broken, all the stop losses could have triggered and took Nifty Future to 4838 levels and it closed @ 4848 which is near the days' low.

While Nifty Future did go lower than my expectation of 4900 levels, I still believe there would be a pull back whereby Nifty Future will test 5000, before continuing the fall.

For tomorrow's trading, i would advise buying in the open with 4790 as stop loss. On the way up Nifty Future will find resistance at 4920 - 4940 - 4980 & 5000 levels. It will be safer to buy 4900 or 5000 call option for current month.

Put Call ratio of Index Options reduced to 1.02 as against 1.12 on the previous day.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

Words of Wisdom

Forgiveness is the fragrance that the

violet sheds on the heel that crushed it.

TURNING POINTS FOR 27.10.09

NIFTY FUTURE 3O MIN


Charts: SBI - SAIL - RELIANCE

Charts: MARUTI - ICICI BANK - NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE :
In today's trading Nifty Future opened at previous day's levels and by mid-day made a high @ 5042, but gave up all the gains in last one hour of trade, to close at the lower levels of the day. Today's close is decisively below the trend line, which indicates still lower levels for the Nifty Future. Another important positive feature for today's trading was that Infosys and FMCG stocks were firm. As such, FMCG index even made a new all time high.

Tomorrow is an important day, as RBI will be announcing Credit Policy. If there are no major negatives in the Credit Policy, Nifty Future may take support @ 4900 levels and bounce back. We also have FNO settlement on Thursday and month end approaching immediately thereafter. In view of the same, i feel a bounce back is possible up to 5100 and in the process it will form Right shoulder of the Head & Shoulder pattern on 30 min chart. Thereafter, Nifty Future may tests 4700 levels.
If you find the above arguments logical, please avoid going short at these levels. Instead, consider buying Nifty future near 4900 levels with 4865 as Stop Loss. On its way up 5000 - 5045 and 5065 will act as resistance levels.

It will be better to trade in Options, that too for the current month as the time value will be negligible.

Please do not forget to use STOP LOSS.

With Best wishes,

Ketan Asher.

Words of Wisdom

There are no real failures in life, only results.

There are no true tragedies, only lessons.

And there really are no problems,

only opportunities waiting to be recognised as solutions.

TURNING POINTS FOR 26.10.09

Charts: SBI - SAIL - RELIANCE

Charts: MARUTI - ICICI BANK - NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN
NIFTY FUTURE:

In Friday's trading, Nifty Future opened on higher side and went sideways. In the second half it
came down (but not lower than previous day) due to negative news in Reliance. Fall in Reliance was offset by Infosys and ITC (due to good results). At the close Nifty Future is at a critical juncture i.e. on the trend line and just managed to close @ 5008 levels.

Reliance has couple of supports near 2040 levels and i don't think it will break this level. Moreover, we have RBI meet on 27th and FNO settlement on Thursday. With so many events and good support from FMCG, Banks & IT it is unlikely that market would tank.

With US markets in the red, it is quite likely that we may have a weak opening session. In that event, Nifty Future has very good support @ 4900 levels (as shown in Nifty Future EOD and 30 Min charts) and one can consider buying @ 4925 levels with 4900 as stop loss level.

On higher side one can consider buying Nifty Future above 5045 with 5000 as Stop Loss. On way up it will find resistance at 5065 & 5100. Above 5100 it is not advisable to remain short.
Put Call Ratio of Index Options was @ 1.12 as against 1.23 on the previous day.

In view of the various contradictions stated above, be prepared for a choppy market and one would be better off dealing in Options alone.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

Words of Wisdom
Any one can become angry - that's easy.

But to be angry with the right person, to the right degree,

at the right time, for the right purpose and in the right way - that is not easy.

TURNING POINTS FOR 23.10.09

Charts: SBI - SAIL - RELIANCE

Charts: MARUTI - ICICI BANK - NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN
NIFTY FUTURE:

In view of the weakness in US markets, Nifty Future opened with a downside gap, but managed to fill the gap by making a high of 5068 (just 3 points above the resistance level of 5065), In the second half of the day Nifty Future went down to make a low of 4074 and to close @ 4997.

Tomorrow, if the market opens weak Nifty Future may go down up to 4950 and then bounce back. One can consider buying Nifty Future above 5010 with stop loss of 4970. On the way up 5040 - 5080 - 5100 will act as resistance levels.

It is not advisable to make fresh short positions tomorrow as it is the last trading day of the week and after 3rd down day today, there is a good possibility of a bounce tomorrow.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options remained unchanged at yesterday's level of 1.23.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.
With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 22.10.2009

Charts: SBI - SAIL - RELIANCE

Charts : MARUTI - ICICI BANK - NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN

NIFTY FUTURE:

In today's trade Nifty Future went sideways for better part of the day and as it could not go above 5130, it fell to make low of 5058 and closed @ 5070. While SBI and Reliance led the fall, Infosys and Tata Power reduced the extent of fall.

We are now close to the trend line support @ 5025 and we have to see if Nifty takes support one more time. Moreover, 5050 (50% level) will also offer support. In view of the same i would suggest not to take fresh positions for the first 15-30 minutes in the opening session. If market takes support in 5025-5050 region, one can consider going long above 5065 with days low as Stop Loss. On higher side 5100 and 5150 will act as resistance levels.

Fresh short position should be considered only below 5000 with 5040 as Stop Loss. On downside 4950 and 4900 will act as supports.

Put Call Ratio of Index Options is @ 1.23 as against 1.33 yesterday.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 21.10.09

Charts: SBI - SAIL - RELIANCE

Charts: MARUTI - ICICI BANK - NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN

NIFTY FUTURE:

In today's trade Nifty Future opened at higher levels, in line with rise in US markets, but could not go above the resistance level of 5165 (shown as Trend Line in 30 min chart). Banking Sector and Reliance were weak and thereby affecting the Nifty Future. It closed nearer to the low of the day, which indicates weak opening for tomorrow.

For tomorrow's trading it will be better to sell Nifty Future below 5130 with stop loss of 5170. On lower levels, 5075 - 5050 and 5015 will act as supports. Below 5065, weakness will accelerate and if 5000 is broken, the next major support will be 4900 and testing of 4750 will be a distinct possibility.

It is advisable not to buy Nifty Future/Stocks at higher levels, but to wait for a decent correction.

While SBI's EOD chart indicates a pause in the up move, it will be advisable not to make fresh purchases at higher levels, since banking stocks in general have increased by about 20% in last 10 days.

Lets hope the much awaited correction has set in, so that one can make new purchases at lower levels.

Put Call Ratio of Index options has once again increased to 1.33 levels as against 1.15 in the previous trading day.

Please do not forget to use STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.