TURNING POINTS FOR 01.09.2009

Charts: SBI - SAIL - RELIANCE

Charts: MARUTI - ICICI BANK - NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN

NIFTY FUTURE:

In view of weak Asian markets, Nifty Future opened with almost 60 point gap and could not fill the gap during the day. It made a low of 4635 and closed near the day's open 4374. Front line stock viz Infosys,Reliance, Tata Steel etc. led the downfall. In light of the overall weakness in the World markets, it is quiet likely that weakness in our markets will accelerate tomorrow.

Nifty Future can be sold below 4650 with stop loss of 4680. It will find support at 4590 - 4550 and major support @ 4500.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 31.08.09

Charts: SBI - SAIL - RELIANCE

Charts: MARUTI - ICICI BANK - NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN

NIFTY FUTURE :

Last Friday Nifty Future finally broke the earlier high and made a new 52 week high at 4754. Interestingly, while Nifty Future made a new high, BSE Sensex did not make a new high. This in my opinion is a type of divergence and should not be ignored. It does indicate that the sailing is not smooth and to some extent it also indicates indecisiveness of the market.
I would also highlight that it has not yet crossed over 4766 which could act as a significant resistance in view of it being .618 level of 6336 and 2228. Tomorrow happens to be the last trading day of the month and hence it will be interesting to see at what level the markets close tomorrow as the monthly candle will then indicate strength/weakness accordingly.

For tomorrow, i would not adivse buy side trades as i would wait to see whether Nifty Future manages to close above 4770. On higher side 4800 and 4865 will act as resistance levels.

Nifty Future may be sold below 4650 with stop loss of 4685 and target 4590 and 4550 will act as supports.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 28.08.2009

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN

NIFTY FUTURE:

Once again Nifty Future could not cross the trend line which has been drawn on the Nifty Future 30 min chart, for the last 2 days. With FNO closure behind us, will it Clear it now? Yes, it can - but i would give importance to close above 4766 as a real confirmation that we are leaving this past 3 months' consolidation period behind us - at least for now.

For today, it will be better to take the trade only after the 1st half an hour. On higher side, 4730 - 4770 and 4800 will act as resistance levels.

Today Nifty Future may be sold below 4640 with stop loss of 4660. It will find support @ 4600 - 4570 and 4530.

Volatility is the order of the day, so do not forget to use STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 27.08.09

NIFTY FUTURE :

In today's trading Nifty Future could not cross the trend line shown in the Nifty Future 30 min chart, even though it got good support from Infosys.

With today's close (and some support from US markets), it looks almost certain that Nifty Future will cross the previous high tomorrow - to end the current FNO settlement by making a new high. On higher side Nifty may face resistance at 4766 and 4800.

Nifty Future may be sold below 4640 with stop loss of 4660 and it will find support @ 4590 and will get weak below 4540.

For those trading on the long side - must bear in mind that there is momentum in the market and hence most of the scrips/sectors are looking good. However, if one looks at the valuation side - at 20 PE it should actually make things look expensive, but when cash is king - who cares?

While one should not loose any opportunity to make money, STOP LOSS should not be forgotten, when things suddenly change.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 26.08.09

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN

NIFTY FUTURE:

Today Nifty Future opened lower and after making a low of 4583 made a strong up move in just 30 min. to make a higher top of 4680. Today's move was largely contributed by Reliance, as it gained strength above 2000.

If Reliance continues its rally tomorrow, it can help Nifty Futures cross 4680 and there after 4700 level.

Please refer to the EOD chart to see how Andrew's Pitchfork's median line is acting as resistance for the past 2 days.

While we are at a striking distance from crossing 4730, i would like to reiterate that oscillators do not yet confirm strong up move. At this stage Nifty Future short should be considered only below 4630 with stop loss of 4665 and it will find support at 4590 and 4525.
On the higher side if the Nifty Future crosses 4730, it will find resistance at 4765 and 4800.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 25.08.09

NIFTY FUTURE :

As expected, Nifty Future openend with a Gap, but traded during the day in a narrow range. From the charts for individual stocks displayed above, you will obsereve that for some of the stocks viz. Tata Steel and SAIL, the range was too narrow to even offer a good trading range. The banks stocks could not sustain the early gains and almost closed near the days opneing prices. All that was doing great - as in the past few weeks, were B Group Stocks and this helped the market to post a good Advance/Decline ratio through out the day.

For tomorrow, Nifty Future sell should be consider only below 4590 with Stop Loss of 4625 and support at 4561 and 4525. Nifty Future will get weak below 4500.

For those who are trading on the bull side, should keep in mind 4660 and 4700 as hurdles.

Whether party at the US markets will help our cause of going above 4730 should be known in the next couple of days. Till then trade cautiously and do not forget to put the STOP LOSS, Market never treats anyone kindly between Monday to Friday.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 24.08.09

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN

NIFTY FUTURE :

On last Friday market opened lower but made an upmove there by forcing the shorts to cut their position and also helping the upmove. I would like to draw your attention that Nifty future could not cross previuos weeks' high and has continued the process of lower top - lower bottom for the previuos week.

Interestingly in this phase of the market - both the views : bearish as well as bullish, are alternatively proving right.

In view of good close in US markets, higher opening on Monday is a forgone conclusion, but wether it will help Nifty Future make a new high above 4730 remains in doubt. Even at the cost of being repetitive, i would continue to maintain that this should be treated as an upmove in the range bound market which is in a range of 4350 to 4700. On weekly charts the oscillators too do not give the confidence of sustained upmove. Those readers who may be having bullish bias must be cautious and keep a tight stop loss for long positions.

In line with my bearish view for reasons stated above - on the individaul charts attached herewith - i have indicated the higher levels where i condiser selling to be safe. I have also indicated suitable stop loss for each of theses items and should be used without fail.

Nifty future can be sold at resistance around 4625 with a stop loss of 4660. Nifty future will get weak only below 4500.

As stated in my earlier post, this volatility will have to be endured till market decisively crosses either above 4730 on upper side or 4350 on lower side.

Trade cautiously and do not forget to use STOP LOSS.

With Best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

TURNING POINTS FOR 21.08.2009

Charts: TATA STEEL - SAIL - RELIANCE

Charts: MARUTI - ICICI BANK - NIFTY FUTURE EOD

NIFTY FUTURE 30 MIN

NIFTY FUTURE:

Contrary to my expectation, Nifty Future opened higher (but not with a gap) on the back of positive close in US markets. Majority of the gains were lost in the last one hour, as Nifty Future came back to almost near the levels where it started the day. That itself speaks for the strength of the market at higher levels and consequently my reluctance to give buy trades. Once again the weakness was led by Reliance. We have no choice but to live with this volatility, till Nifty Future tanks below 4300 or decisively moves above 4700.

Considering the way Nifty Futures came down in the last hour, once again i am left with no option but to suggest weakness for tomorrow - except of course if US markets have something different in store tonight. Nifty Future sell may be considered below 4420 with stop loss of 4460 and ideally the position should be trailed with a stop loss. If Nifty Future goes below 4300 it may give good profits. Buying 4300 puts may be considered if Nifty Future makes a new low below 4340 although only 5 trading days are remaining for settlement including tomorrow. At lower levels Nifty Future will find support @4300 - 4260 and 4220.

Please do not trade without STOP LOSS.

With best Wishes,

Ketan Asher.

Words of Wisdom

Success in trading and life comes from knowing your edge,

pressing it when you have the opportunity,

and sitting back when that edge is no longer present.